Bottom Pair facing 2x pot Overbet

[GaryT]

The title sounds funny. But I think this was a really tough spot, or maybe i'm just a station.

My hud wasn't working but I had been on a table with the villan in this hand for quite a long time. He seemed to be a good player. He was quite laggy and 3 betting a lot. I've 4 bet folded to him twice but that was 3 or 4 levels ago. I had been quite laggy but then lost half my stack so was really tight for a couple of levels. I doubled up the hand right before this 1.

Stacks
Hero 25,482
Villan 58,511

Blinds 300/600/75

I have 45 in the HJ.

I raise 1200, villan on BTN calls, rest fold.

Flop 835 (3900)

I bet 1315, villan calls.

Turn J (6530)

I check, villan bets 2866, I call.

River 3 (12,262)

I check planning to snap every bet and villan shoves for 20,026 effective and I'm very confused.

[Caf]

Fold pre.

Check the flop.

Fold the turn.

Fold the river.

[Jam-Fly]

very often the nuts here, I fold

[GaryT]

Fold pre.

Check the flop.

Fold the turn.

Fold the river.

I don't think pre is that bad. The blinds and CO were all really tight so I thought it was an okay open. What's the worst you would open into 3 really tight players and 1 LAG? I thought it was pretty standard.

Check planning to fold flop?

I was planning to call turn and the majority of rivers.

What do you think he can have here that beats us and overbets on that board? When I don't think he has very many suited aces.

very often the nuts here, I fold

I think it is never the nuts as he has a very low % of Ax hands. He was 3 betting a tonne and I'd say he 3bets majority of his Aces on the button. I also expected him to raise sets on the flop.

[Caf]

I don't think pre is that bad. The blinds and CO were all really tight so I thought it was an okay open. What's the worst you would open into 3 really tight players and 1 LAG? I thought it was pretty standard.

Check planning to fold flop?

I was planning to call turn and the majority of rivers.

What do you think he can have here that beats us and overbets on that board? When I don't think he has very many suited aces.

If villain is 3betting a lot then tightening our opening range must have merit.

Yeah, I'd c/f the flop.

So many cards in the deck to weaken our already very weak hand. We'll never know where we are so I'm happy to give it up on the flop, rather than inflating the pot Cbetting and playing a horrible board OOP.

I'm not sure what he'd turn up with here but all we beat is air.

edit: I don't think cbetting is bad btw, just not the line I'd take most of the time, I would be done with the hand to no improvement after that though. Also on a flop of this texture I would be Cbetting more always.

[bustamoves]

I'd be more inclined to call this than your previous strat post where u faced a bogstandard river bet with with 'for value' written all over it when u had QQ and a drawy board. For me that is a fairly easy fold.

This one here is where I think u will see a much higher frequency of total air/missed draws so in my book this is much closer. I'm taking into consideration an image of your opponent being somewhat laggy/tricky and your history.

Your perceived range looks a lot like Overs with a Spade or some mid pair hand with weakish SD value so villain should know you're going to find it really difficult to call light. You've also shown a tendency to fold previously so he's more likely to put max pressure on with bluffs than with value hands IMO.

[Winning!]

Fold pre seems fairly standard with recent history, unless you want to take a stand with trash in a spot where stacks make going 4 to 6 a tad difficult.. so no, don't do that. Flop sizing is a problem since you're just getting floated/raised in a spot where despite villains history and texture it's next to impossible to continue three streets. Juts b/f turn, you essentially forfeit pot by checking since you almost never have FH/flushes so villain can just barrel his entire range which may still contain bluffs beating bottom pair and you're folding like always.

[GaryT]

If villain is 3betting a lot then tightening our opening range must have merit.

Yeah, I'd c/f the flop.

So many cards in the deck to weaken our already very weak hand. We'll never know where we are so I'm happy to give it up on the flop, rather than inflating the pot Cbetting and playing a horrible board OOP.

I'm not sure what he'd turn up with here but all we beat is air.

edit: I don't think cbetting is bad btw, just not the line I'd take most of the time, I would be done with the hand to no improvement after that though. Also on a flop of this texture I would be Cbetting more always.

I never even considered folding flop/turn. I felt he would float this flop an absolute tonne and the barrel a load of turns + rivers which I felt we could call. We would obviously never be loving life but I thought it would definitely be profitable. Also this is 1 of the better run outs for my exact hand vs his range here.

I am a bit of a station though!

I'd be more inclined to call this than your previous strat post where u faced a bogstandard river bet with with 'for value' written all over it when u had QQ and a drawy board. For me that is a fairly easy fold.

This one here is where I think u will see a much higher frequency of total air/missed draws so in my book this is much closer. I'm taking into consideration an image of your opponent being somewhat laggy/tricky and your history.

Your perceived range looks a lot like Overs with a Spade or some mid pair hand with weakish SD value so villain should know you're going to find it really difficult to call light. You've also shown a tendency to fold previously so he's more likely to put max pressure on with bluffs than with value hands IMO.

I actually feel the same now after thinking about both of them. His overbet range here should be a minimum of trips+ I'd expect. He has very few 3x hands in his range. I would imagine he'd raise sets on that flop as there's a lot of bad turns for him. I don't think he sizes the turn like that with flushes so was pretty confusing.

About the other QQ hand. I think my main problem with that was my hud wasn't working and I was playing too many tables so I went off 2 hands I had played with the guy where I thought he was semi decent/aggressive post but calls too much pre. Where as actually later on after that hand I realised he was just a huge station. So I thought he couldn't have a lot of value hands there when really he could.

Fold pre seems fairly standard with recent history, unless you want to take a stand with trash in a spot where stacks make going 4 to 6 a tad difficult.. so no, don't do that. Flop sizing is a problem since you're just getting floated/raised in a spot where despite villains history and texture it's next to impossible to continue three streets. Juts b/f turn, you essentially forfeit pot by checking since you almost never have FH/flushes so villain can just barrel his entire range which may still contain bluffs beating bottom pair and you're folding like always.

I'll discuss my thoughts behind my general sizing in the other thread where I saw your post on that too. I know you definitely have a point there though.

About the bolded part, is that not more of a reason to call? Our hand looks like either a middling pair or some type of AsX hand. It's a spot where it is really hard for him to have what he's representing don't you think?

I wouldn't expect a random who does appear good, in a MiniFTOPs which is obviously extremely soft to try and jam anything worse than a flush for 2x pot for value. I presume he'd raise sets/flushes on flop. Well maybe call with a big flush. I don't think he bets so small on the turn with a flush. He can't have JJ because he's without a doubt trying to get that in pre.

So when we get to this spot on the river what hands that he could actually have going on the previous action that beat us? I personally can't see him turning mid pairs that beat us into bluffs that often when they would be good a large % of the time.


Does this make sense or am I totally wrong? That's pretty much what I thought at the time.


Thanks