I have AQ on the BB with 60 big blinds well in the money with 18 left
UTG with 75 bbs ,min raises and the small blinds with 12 bbs shoves.
call, raise or fold
I have AQ on the BB with 60 big blinds well in the money with 18 left
UTG with 75 bbs ,min raises and the small blinds with 12 bbs shoves.
call, raise or fold
Definitely do not re-shove, you have 60bbs so why shove and risk running into a better hand from the utg raiser, I think flating the small blinds shove is by far the best option as you still have buckets with 48bbs behind you and proceed with caution if utg decides to flat behind, if utg shoves over the top of ur flat call,easy fold.
If hero does flat the sbs shove. What range do we think utg should shove with? 1010+ AQ+? Or is it way lighter?
Edit: that's the interesting part. I think I would flat but not sure if we should flat to fold or should we be looking to flat in order to induce a shove from utg. Prob the former but utgs shipping range over our flat is crucial to how we play the hand.
if it was me UTG I wouldnt be shipping too light as i would be wary of the flat is looking to induce a shove but it is the interesting part i hadnt thought much about
Anything other than folding is really bad. You have a tiny edge against the shortstacks push, no where near good enough to risk 60bbs, where you can't get called by a worse hand.
Calling is bad because it puts you in a very strange and difficult position post flop. It's not a good idea to cold call 1/6 of your stack pre out of position with no clear plan for post flop.
If you change your hand to JJ you have a pretty awful decision to make
agree with downtowns range for villains re-shove hands, i would even say he does not re ship AQ, he has to be some bit suspect of our flat so i think he could fold or flat AQ to play HERO in position, i guess the same could be said for 10s also, and we are definately never flating to induce imo.
Firstly, stats on the UTG villain wud be important. I think a fold is justifiable with specific info. However, in a vacuum, I flat and fold to utg shove.
With AK, I would raise.
With AA, KK and QQ, I would flat to call.
With 1010, 99 and AJs, I would also flat to fold.
JJ is the toughest hand here but I would lean to a flat to fold due to the ICM implications.
when you call ..you play face up... you range is Aq -TT - 99..
so you need to know the shove range against you by OR...
otherwise is fold. ( you need to know already your action if OR shove ur call).
you can shove only if you know OR might open fold from UTG,
otherwise is fold because OR would call you only with better hand...
So in my opinion your action is based on history you have with OR
otherwise is easy fold.
If you play the hand you should pretty much flat with your entire range. Never a raise (not even a click/raise - had the SB shoved something like 7-8bb then it would be a different story.), never a shove. This assuming that OR is competent and wouldn't overcall.
If you do this you really put OR in a shitty spot even if he has AK/JJ.
Choice between calling and folding totally depend on villains, but I would probably opt to fold most of the times without reads.
My 1st thought would be based on utg villains tendencies for definite however my decision would also be based on how competent the sb is, if the utg has shown a tendency to raise fold from ep then I smooth as the sb can shove a wider range however If the sb is quite abc etc I'm folding pretty much every time here, u are calling hoping utg will fold, as you do not want to the utg OOP as you will miss the flop so often, for me it's a sigh fold most of the time!
My 1st thought would be based on utg villains tendencies for definite however my decision would also be based on how competent the sb is, if the utg has shown a tendency to raise fold from ep then I smooth as the sb can shove a wider range however If the sb is quite abc etc I'm folding pretty much every time here, u are calling hoping utg will fold, as you do not want to the utg OOP as you will miss the flop so often, for me it's a sigh fold most of the time!
For once I wouldn't worry too much about position as UTG should almost never overcall there if you flat, and if he does you have just over a psb (48bb on a 40bb pot) and a lot of the times you won't be bluffed out of a dead pot anyway...main reason for folding here if that we don't want to commit so many chips and have to fold to an UTG shove.
"Poker isn’t about default strategies, it’s about exploiting your opponent's bad tendencies"
I decided with my stack to fold, as i would find better stops.
When i fold UTG snaps with A 10 and was up against KJ.
J Q 4 flop , 5 turn and 5 river.
I think if stack sizes were different, i may play the hand differently.
Firstly, stats on the UTG villain wud be important. I think a fold is justifiable with specific info. However, in a vacuum, I flat and fold to utg shove.
With AK, I would raise.
With AA, KK and QQ, I would flat to call.
With 1010, 99 and AJs, I would also flat to fold.
JJ is the toughest hand here but I would lean to a flat to fold due to the ICM implications.
I'm interested in this post, especially as so many people liked it who are good at MTTs
To make things easy, I'll assume utg folds or shoves. If he calls we are out of position, and with AQ we can't secretly hit a flop (bar TJK) so it isn't going to be hugely profitable anyway .
Lets say the shortstack shoves 20% of hands. I actually think this is too loose a range, but anyway.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
4,438,291,968 games 0.000 secs 887,658,393,600 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.164% 53.78% 03.38% 2386972404 150120612.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 42.836% 39.45% 03.38% 1751078340 150120612.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, A6o+, KJo+ }
We have 57% equity against that range.
So if utg folds we have 57% equity in a pot of 27.5 blinds
This is 15.675 blinds.
We are risking 12 blinds, so we make 3.675 blinds on average. (Assuming utg folds).
If utg shoves, we fold, having cost ourselves 12 blinds. This obviously leads us to lose 12 blinds on average.
So for this to be profitable, utg needs to fold about 75% of the time.
If he shoves TT+ AK and AQs that's 3.8% of hands, which means he has to be opening 15.2% of hands to make it breakeven. If he shoves AQ and 99 then this goes to about 20% of hands
****
If the shortstack is relatively tight, say 22+,AJs+,KQs,ATo+
Then AQ is actually is a slight dog to his range
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
2,404,074,816 games 0.101 secs 23,802,720,950 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.019% 48.42% 04.60% 1164116496 110492700.00 { 22+, AJs+, KQs, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 46.981% 42.39% 04.60% 1018972920 110492700.00 { AQo }
So obviously this is going to be hugely unprofitable, since we do little better than breakeven when utg folds (due to the dead money), and lose 12blinds when he shoves.
Utg villain opens 20% of his range (any pair, any suited ace, a9o+, k9s+, kjo+, q10s+, qjo+, 10js, 109s)
The SB shoves top 10% (66+, A9s+, AJo+, KJs+, KQ)
The UTG villain will flat JJ, shove QQ+/AK and fold everything else. (i.e. 6 combos flat and 24 combos shove)
Therefore, the UTG villain will shove top 1.5% of hands or 7.5% of his original range. He will also flat 0.4% of his range or 2% of his original range.
Thus, 90.5% of the time, he folds and we go to showdown with AQo versus the top 10% range of the SB. Versus this range, AQo is 49%. We are calling 11bbs to win 27bbs so we need to be 40%.
Therefore, we gain 2.5 bbs 90.5% of the time.
We lose 11 bbs 7.5% of the time.
2% of the time, we go 3way with a hand that is 49% against the SB range and is 43% versus the UTG villain which when you include the dead money is a push.
So, 90.5% of 2.5bbs is 2.25 bbs. 7.5% of 11bbs is 0.825 bbs.
Therefore, given my assumptions, the line of calling the SB to fold to a UTG shove yields an expectation of 1.425 bbs.
Utg villain opens 20% of his range (any pair, any suited ace, a9o+, k9s+, kjo+, q10s+, qjo+, 10js, 109s)
The SB shoves top 10% (66+, A9s+, AJo+, KJs+, KQ)
The UTG villain will flat JJ, shove QQ+/AK and fold everything else. (i.e. 6 combos flat and 24 combos shove)
Therefore, the UTG villain will shove top 1.5% of hands or 7.5% of his original range. He will also flat 0.4% of his range or 2% of his original range.
Thus, 90.5% of the time, he folds and we go to showdown with AQo versus the top 10% range of the SB. Versus this range, AQo is 49%. We are calling 11bbs to win 27bbs so we need to be 40%.
Therefore, we gain 2.5 bbs 90.5% of the time.
We lose 11 bbs 7.5% of the time.
2% of the time, we go 3way with a hand that is 49% against the SB range and is 43% versus the UTG villain which when you include the dead money is a push.
So, 90.5% of 2.5bbs is 2.25 bbs. 7.5% of 11bbs is 0.825 bbs.
Therefore, given my assumptions, the line of calling the SB to fold to a UTG shove yields an expectation of 1.425 bbs.
You assign these kind of ranges to unknowns? utg opens top 20% and a SB short stack will reshove top 10%? I'd have thought those were a bit on the ambitious side. Must reevaluate.
You assign these kind of ranges to unknowns? utg opens top 20% and a SB short stack will reshove top 10%? I'd have thought those were a bit on the ambitious side. Must reevaluate.
I would say they are on the tight side if anything
You assign these kind of ranges to unknowns? utg opens top 20% and a SB short stack will reshove top 10%? I'd have thought those were a bit on the ambitious side. Must reevaluate.
As I said in my first post, it would be great to have some stats on the villains. But since they werent provided, I must make guesstimates in a vacuum. The chipleader should be opening wider than top 20% in this spot 2 tables out bit I think i have assigned him a reasonable range.
The SB reshove does have fold equity against some of the range so it's not vital that he be beating half of it. In fact, with the dead money, you could argue he can legitimately shove a little wider than the range I assigned. However, again, I made my best guess and tightened him up a fraction to allow for some small ICM implications and the fact that he may wait for a spot more likely to avoid showdown.
Given that my assumptions mean a gain of almost one and a half big blinds when risking 11 (13% edge), there is substantial room to still justify this play even when you tighten up both ranges. Anything over a 4% edge should be taken at this point of the tourney, especially when the utility difference between 75bbs and 48bbs is not enormous. Every chip gained is worth less than every chip lost but this is only profoundly relevant when our tournament life is at stake and not when it is for 20% of our stack.
Anything over a 4% edge should be taken at this point of the tourney
Just wondering why its 4% & is there any articles about this kind of stuff? (what edge you need at certain pts etc)
I was trying to build a sng 'iso range' sheet myself and decided on .75 of a bb being enough mid stage and going safer to 1.25 of a bb deep, but was unsure if it was actually right, it just looked right to me. Thinking now from what you said that .75 was too tight for mid stages, let me know if ud b willin to have a chat about this kind of stuff dont want to clog up this thread too much
Just wondering why its 4% & is there any articles about this kind of stuff? (what edge you need at certain pts etc)
I was trying to build a sng 'iso range' sheet myself and decided on .75 of a bb being enough mid stage and going safer to 1.25 of a bb deep, but was unsure if it was actually right, it just looked right to me. Thinking now from what you said that .75 was too tight for mid stages, let me know if ud b willin to have a chat about this kind of stuff dont want to clog up this thread too much
Therefore, given my assumptions, the line of calling the SB to fold to a UTG shove yields an expectation of 1.425 bbs.
I don't think its stated anywhere that utg is chip leader. Isn't that an incredibly loose range to be opening utg at a 9 handed table? You've also assigned him a shoving range that allows both of us to play perfectly, which seems pretty optimistic. I think the following scenarios are much more likely:
If he opens 10% (55+,A9s+,KQs,AJo+,KQo) of the time, and shoves 4.5% (AJs, AQ+ , JJ+)
then we lose 11bbs 45% of the time, and gain 2.5bbs 55% of the time. This gives us an average of -3.575
If he opens 15% (55+,A9s+,KQs,AJo+,KQo) of the time, and shoves 4.5% (AJs, AQ+ , JJ+)
Then we lose 11bbs 30% of the time, and gain 2.5bbs 70% of the time. This gives us an average of -1.55
If he opens 20% and shoves 4.5% of the time
Then we lose 11bbs 22.5% of the time, and gain 2.5bbs 77.% of the time. This give us an average of -0.5375
If you change his shoving range to suit ourselves (Ie shove JJ+, AK+), thats 3% of hands.
Then a 10% opening range leaves us with a profit of -1.55
A 15% opening range leaves us with a profit of -.2
A 20% opening range gives us a real profit of +.475
If you think he will flat call JJ and not shove, our equity is slightly increased (since we don't have to fold pre)
Added to that is the fact that if its close, we should fold - as being out of position in a huge pot is going to be - EV unless utg is retarded. He will likely call with a lot of mid pairs, that will almost never commit post flop unless they are ahead.
So, whilst you can construct ranges and play to make it SLIGHTLY profitable, basically utg needs to be a) Opening more than 20%, and b) only shipping JJ or AK and better to make it profitable. If he ships it in light it quickly becomes extremely - EV as we constantly have to fold.
I don't think its stated anywhere that utg is chip leader. Isn't that an incredibly loose range to be opening utg at a 9 handed table? You've also assigned him a shoving range that allows both of us to play perfectly, which seems pretty optimistic. I think the following scenarios are much more likely:
If he opens 10% (55+,A9s+,KQs,AJo+,KQo) of the time, and shoves 4.5% (AJs, AQ+ , JJ+)
then we lose 11bbs 45% of the time, and gain 2.5bbs 55% of the time. This gives us an average of -3.575
If he opens 15% (55+,A9s+,KQs,AJo+,KQo) of the time, and shoves 4.5% (AJs, AQ+ , JJ+)
Then we lose 11bbs 30% of the time, and gain 2.5bbs 70% of the time. This gives us an average of -1.55
If he opens 20% and shoves 4.5% of the time
Then we lose 11bbs 22.5% of the time, and gain 2.5bbs 77.% of the time. This give us an average of -0.5375
If you change his shoving range to suit ourselves (Ie shove JJ+, AK+), thats 3% of hands.
Then a 10% opening range leaves us with a profit of -1.55
A 15% opening range leaves us with a profit of -.2
A 20% opening range gives us a real profit of +.475
If you think he will flat call JJ and not shove, our equity is slightly increased (since we don't have to fold pre)
Added to that is the fact that if its close, we should fold - as being out of position in a huge pot is going to be - EV unless utg is retarded. He will likely call with a lot of mid pairs, that will almost never commit post flop unless they are ahead.
So, whilst you can construct ranges and play to make it SLIGHTLY profitable, basically utg needs to be a) Opening more than 20%, and b) only shipping JJ or AK and better to make it profitable. If he ships it in light it quickly becomes extremely - EV as we constantly have to fold.
Great thread.
It doesnt say he is chipleader but with 18 ITM left and 75bbs safe to assume he is thereabouts. I think the range Lappin assigned is fairly spot on, it could be wider even but of course V certain villians it could be significantly tighter.
There's spots in here that we all come across in MTTs, but it also goes to show how ranges can be manipulated to make a certain play correct in your mind. Lappin would play a lot more MTTs than HJ and be in this spot a lot more, but i agree with HJ that 20% UTG opening range is absurdly high.
I've stats on over 100k players in HEM, and bar some fish with a small sample size there's no player opening near 20% UTG. Opening QJo and A9o UTG 9 handed with 2 tables to go would be a bad assumption to make unless you have 1st hand experience.
If a player is opening 20% UTG, i'd be shoving about 65% from the SB/BB (22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,94s+,84s+,74s+,64s+, 54s,A2o+,K2o+,Q4o+,J6o+,T7o+,97o+,87o,76o) If called 100% of the time, we're still 40% against an UTG opening 20% of hands.
HEM would be important here to gauge both players ranges and tendencies
I stand by all of my assumptions. Without HEM stats, I am assigning an average range.
Mr Jelly's maths are inaccurately expressed.
Importantly, as per my original post, I gave my flatting range - an extremely balanced range that means that any time the villain shoves wider than JJ+\AK, we will exploit him in a profound way.
Poker is not a game of exact hands. There are ranges in all scenarios - both the range of the villain and our range in the villain's eyes. Sure, it might happen that we get exploited in this scenario by a loose shove but we must have the bottom of our range in our range to induce the villain into making a play into the top of our range.
'I've stats on over 100k players in HEM, and bar some fish with a small sample size there's no player opening near 20% UTG. Opening QJo and A9o UTG 9 handed with 2 tables to go would be a bad assumption to make unless you have 1st hand experience.'
@FD,
Can you filter for final 2 tables say and say stacks over 65 Bigs or so for eg.?
I think it's fairly obvious that no way does your average player open close to 20% utg (over the course of all Mtt's) but it would be interesting to see what a CL does on ave coming to last two tables say....it's definitely got to be higher but I still have a hard time accepting the average that a random CL we encounter at this stage will be opening this wide.
I note Lappin says they 'should be' and maybe they should (and I'm sure he does) but in my experience (playing lower stakes Mtt's) I just don't see it.
@Flushdraw, I don't think it is possible either in HM but as bustamoves says it is that vlaue that is important here and not a general utg opening range over a whole tournament. I'd say the average opening range will be in the 15-20%range fwiw, but will vary alot depending on utg's ability and the stack sizes of the rest of the table.
"Don't overcomplicate a straight forward game with mathematical bullshit and dicussing different lines with your geeky friends" Chris Olaafson
If a player is opening 20% UTG, i'd be shoving about 65% from the SB/BB (22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,94s+,84s+,74s+,64s+, 54s,A2o+,K2o+,Q4o+,J6o+,T7o+,97o+,87o,76o) If called 100% of the time, we're still 40% against an UTG opening 20% of hands.
HEM would be important here to gauge both players ranges and tendencies
This seems to me how the guys who win all the money play. Mucking AQ here would of never entered my mind before this thread and |I still dont think I ever would unless the stats were screaming at me to fold. My thoughts would only of been whether to shove or flat/fold. possibly too against certain villains, again with stats, I may even flat to induce here.
There seems to be a big difference between the cash games players here and the mtt players. Does the choice of game have any bearing or is a poker hand either correct or incorrect?
Also if I am UTG and the bb flats, Again stat dependent but I think my shoving range is 1010+, AQs +.
I stand by all of my assumptions. Without HEM stats, I am assigning an average range.
It doesn't seem average based on the information in this thread. You need to be exactly right in all of your guesses in order for it to be marginally +EV.
Poker is not a game of exact hands. There are ranges in all scenarios - both the range of the villain and our range in the villain's eyes. Sure, it might happen that we get exploited in this scenario by a loose shove but we must have the bottom of our range in our range to induce the villain into making a play into the top of our range.
I don't follow/agree with this, I don't think it's worth giving up expectation here in in order to induce the villain to shove when we are trapping with a much better hand. It's an incredibly rare scenario against players you have never seen before, and are unlikely to see again.
There seems to be a big difference between the cash games players here and the mtt players. Does the choice of game have any bearing or is a poker hand either correct or incorrect?
I don't think the choice of game has any bearing usually, and not in this hand. It might account for different approaches though, tournament players probably view AQ as a much stronger hand than cash game players, as the small the stack size the better a hand it is.
There's spots in here that we all come across in MTTs, but it also goes to show how ranges can be manipulated to make a certain play correct in your mind. Lappin would play a lot more MTTs than HJ and be in this spot a lot more, but i agree with HJ that 20% UTG opening range is absurdly high.
I
At this stage of a tournament with the presumed chiplead on the table I would be opening at least 20% utg and most of the big online mtt winners I know personally would be too. It obviously depends on the table though. Someone like Moorman would be a lot higher in these spots. Yes, it is exploitable but you would be surprised how few people are willing to exploit you at the risk of running into the one time you have a hand. A min raise utg does not have to get through very often to be profitable when there are antes.
A worry i obviously have here is flat calling and giving UTG value to see a flop, that i then have to play out of position.
cheers for all the posts, been very imformative and interesting evaluation
Don't forget that its goin be a dead pot post flop, so getting bluffed off the best hand is unlikely unless the UTG raiser thinks the small blind shove is wide which he shouldn't considering the SB is shoving on a UTG raise. Also maybe the best advice from this is to pay more attention to people's opening ranges, shoving ranges and style to better evaluate whats in their range(If you were only new to table I apologise, but the only reason I say this is that I used to start my posts wit, I had no reads on villain or I was new to the table when really the truth was I wasn't paying attention to what people were doing). Also I hope your using HEM as any small bit of extra information is useful.
For what its worth I think Lappin's analysis is spot on especially his shove range for UTG, I think including AJs, AQ 1010 and JJ is too wide as it would be suicide to shove wit these hands, considering you have a pretty tight range for calling the SB shove a lot of which crushes the hands just mentioned.
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