Hand vs LuckyMo32

[peterswellman]

Villain in hand is http://www.pocketfives.com/profiles/luckymo32 , one of the best MTTer's in Ireland. Hand occurred in a €5 rebuy on .fr. Comments on all streets appreciated. His sizing on the turn makes it a fold right, despite given the extra equity we have picked up? His sizing is never bluffs really with that is it and he's always quite nutted. Or do very good players reckon they can get randoms(which I am to him) Jx type hands to fold to 2/3 barrels? Turn is key spot in this hand right? Ever a 3 bet/f preflop, given were OOP to someone who can make our life tough, with a hand that is difficult to play post-flop.

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 1000/2000 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t96994)
Hero (BB) (t101421)
UTG (t120365)
UTG+1 (t60300)
MP1 (t71931)
MP2 (t26613)
CO (t38200)
Button (t46136)

Hero's M: 33.81

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9
UTG bets t4350, 5 folds, SB calls t3350, Hero calls t2350

Flop: (t13050) 8, 4, J (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets t6850, 1 fold, Hero calls t6850

Turn: (t26750) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t20000, Hero????????

[Moneymaker]

I think all 3 options are a possibility here. I kind of like a shove myself. We've got the blockers and that's a card that very much hits our perceived calling range and probably doesn't improve his hand. Calling is ok also but we face a tough spot on any river we don't improve on. Folding is perfectly fine too seeing how we're probably facing a decision for our stack on the river.

I just call pre. Don't like 3betting here.

[Mellor]

I'd probably call in this spot.
For two reasons, he prob pays you off if you improve. And also because I think this is a spot where I expect a 2nd barrel. Maybe your image is drastically different to mine and its rarely a 2nd barrell. But I don't think thats the case.

[Arazi]

I think I'd let it go.
Villian had raised UTG so a reasonable range given description might be 88+, A10+, KJ+ most of which beat us and little of which should be folding to a shove. Calling is an option but if we hit a 9 we could be behind plus some of his other likely holdings shouldn't pay us off, his bet sizing just about prices me out of it.

[FeetMagic]

I play it the same & fold turn.

[DaKlowen]

i prefer to lead flop rather than check call

edit...
i lead turn too since we've improved.

[peterswellman]

i prefer to lead flop rather than check call

edit...
i lead turn too since we've improved.

Why would we lead? What do we do if we get raised?

Interested in different lines.

[Arazi]

i prefer to lead flop rather than check call

edit...
i lead turn too since we've improved.

Obv a different line but in this case it could be awful. It prob only works if he's opened light or has AQ AK type hands.
Also leading this turn pot commits us if opponent shoves. Much as I don't like passive lines I think that in this case OP's line is standard and prudent to this point.

[DaKlowen]

Why would we lead? What do we do if we get raised?

Interested in different lines.

The villain will c/bet 100% of his range when it's checked around to him.
When we check/call our hand looks like a draw so he'll double barrel most of his range, possible check behind with TPTK type hands and barrel bluffs, draws & monsters, either way we can't call.

[DrJFF]

The villain will c/bet 100% of his range when it's checked around to him.
When we check/call our hand looks like a draw so he'll double barrel most of his range, possible check behind with TPTK type hands and barrel bluffs, draws & monsters, either way we can't call.

so you would prefer to bluff?

[Hectorjelly]

I think all 3 options are a possibility here. I kind of like a shove myself. We've got the blockers and that's a card that very much hits our perceived calling range and probably doesn't improve his hand.

Blockers to what, Q9?

[DrJFF]

Does anyone consider folding pre flop here?

[peterswellman]

Does anyone consider folding pre flop here?

Even if we're just set-mining and check folding ever flop when we don't, we're getting the price. Let's put him on a standard opening UTG range it's gonna be fairly strong and we could have a decent chance of stacking off although villian is good so it's gonna be more difficult i'll admit.

[DrJFF]

Even if we're just set-mining and check folding ever flop when we don't, we're getting the price. Let's put him on a standard opening UTG range it's gonna be fairly strong and we could have a decent chance of stacking off although villian is good so it's gonna be more difficult i'll admit.

oh i wouldn't fold here often, but if i felt there was some really easy spots it defo would be an option, as we are going to have to c/f alot of flops/turns etc and waste chips,

his turn bet should be uber strong, as he should be wanting to check behind alot for pot control, like i wouldn't be AJ or worse on this turn and would check AJ or better too,

i played with luckymo a couple of times and he came across as a bit of a nit, so i'd call the flop and c/f the turn here

[ViperEyeIRL]

Do you use a hud? what is flop cbet % and turn cbet %? I think the answer is all there....

high % cbet flop and high % cbet turn ---> fold flop, you are oop and can't take too much pressure if he barrells

low % cbet flop ---> fold flop, he probably has a better hand than you have

high % cbet flop and low cbet & turn ---> call and you probably get a free card on the turn and a cheaper showdown (or can event turn your hand into a bluff on some rivers but won't need to do this too often)

[DaKlowen]

so you would prefer to bluff?

No, not bluff ! i just prefer to be the aggressor in marginal situations.

Check calling the flop with the intention of giving up on the turn is just burning chips.

Either set mine and fold every flop we miss.
OR
Be the aggressor post flop, we are ahead or 50:50 too often to just give up.

[DrJFF]

No, not bluff ! i just prefer to be the aggressor in marginal situations.

Check calling the flop with the intention of giving up on the turn is just burning chips.

Either set mine and fold every flop we miss.
OR
Be the aggressor post flop, we are ahead or 50:50 too often to just give up.

so are you bet/calling the flop or bet/folding flop and likewise for the turn

[JWillo1]

Fold pre If you dont feel comfortable being put into these situations post flop.
I'd check his C-bet turn frequency here on HEM and call down and be willing to call it off on a blank river. There are way more AQ/Ak /KQ combos here then AA/KK.

[Hectorjelly]

No, not bluff ! i just prefer to be the aggressor in marginal situations.

There are plenty of marginal situations in which being passive is the only way to make a profit.

[Tremolo1]

Fold pre If you dont feel comfortable being put into these situations post flop..

Definitley not folding pre

[JWillo1]

Definitley not folding pre

My only thinking was that most of the time in this spot oop vs a competent player is we're either going to lose a big pot or win a small one. Didnt see the SB completing so we're basically getting the direct odds to flop a set..?

Either way I dont think I'm folding turn here.

[DrJFF]

What are peoples calling range in this spot to a tight UTG opener?

Does anyone see any merits of 3betting pre?

[Winning!]

Snap-folding turn vs this sizing, don't think it's close at all. Without a solid read that villain wont continue bluffing whiffed draws OTR, calling OTT to c/f or call off rivers is gon be really bad long term, definitely so vs a good reg. He clearly has something, this is never a pure bluff, and we have third pair on a pretty bad board for villain to double barrel, and there are very few rivers we're pleased with. Plenty better spots to chip up with a 40BB stack than stationing off or shoving here

[Moneymaker]

Are we not hating life if we're the villain with KK here and hero jams the turn?

[DrJFF]

Are we not hating life if we're the villain with KK here and hero jams the turn?

bet/folding KK would be horrible

[Moneymaker]

bet/folding KK would be horrible

Why?

[DrJFF]

Why?

look at the size of the pot and what we've committed and the range of hands that actually beat us is so small

pot is like 136971 and we would have to call like 70221 which is like 1.9/1

and even if we give our opponent a tight enough range on the turn of 44, 88, TT, JJ, 99, QJ+

we are absolutely crushing his range like 80% equity vs that range

[JWillo1]

Do you not think comitting urself with KK/AA here on the turn, if you're the villan is super bad?
edit - considering all the 2 pair/str8/and set combos?

[DrJFF]

Do you not think comitting urself with KK/AA here on the turn, if you're the villan is super bad?
edit - considering all the 2 pair/str8/and set combos?

yeah i do, i think did say in an earlier post that i'd check most hands behind on the turn for pot control, and if i did bet i wouldn't bet 20k,

i think the villains bet on the turn is pretty horrible no matter what he has

[peterswellman]

What are peoples calling range in this spot to a tight UTG opener?

Does anyone see any merits of 3betting pre?

I was considering the merits of 3-bet/folding to basicially take command of the pot that's gonna be difficult to play OOP. Although the disadvantages are bloating a pot OOP, we might have the the worst hand by along way and just handing villian chips.

Do you not think comitting urself with KK/AA here on the turn, if you're the villan is super bad?
edit - considering all the 2 pair/str8/and set combos?

To me is sizing and i'm not saying, it's great what he's doing, but he's trying to give all draws the wrong price to call with flushdraws and straight draws which are a good chunk of our range.

I have only 176 hands on LuckyMo, he was running 16/11, although alot of them were from the rebuy period and he doesn't appear to be one of these guys who spazzs around trying to get chips. Anyway, villian c-bet's 100% of the time out of 9 trials and turn c-bet 75% of the time out of 4 trials. Then he 100% continues on the river out of 3 trials. Dunno why I didn't post these figures at the start,

[DaKlowen]

I have only 176 hands on LuckyMo, he was running 16/11, although alot of them were from the rebuy period and he doesn't appear to be one of these guys who spazzs around trying to get chips. Anyway, villian c-bet's 100% of the time out of 9 trials and turn c-bet 75% of the time out of 4 trials. Then he 100% continues on the river out of 3 trials.

Does this imply he 3 barrels 75% of his opening range ?