Set on a Flush board

[Downtown]

***** Hand History For Game 11069933729 *****
60/120 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (MTT Tournament #64674872) - Sun Nov 6 15:39:25 EST 2011
Table Table 3410888 (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10/10
Seat 1: IdealBeing (3536)
Seat 2: pittis99 (3330)
Seat 3: Jack_Fisher (3487)
Seat 4: clotilda1 (2120)
Seat 5: Szilard83 (5423)
Seat 6: superbyrney (4619)
Seat 7: Jalta111 (3995)
Seat 8: free2style (2410)
Seat 9: USA_LOL (1858)
Seat 10: Hero (3445)
USA_LOL posts small blind (60)
Hero posts big blind (120)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 3c, 3d ]
IdealBeing folds
pittis99 folds
Jack_Fisher folds
clotilda1 folds
Szilard83 raises 267 to 267
superbyrney folds
Jalta111 folds
free2style folds
USA_LOL folds
Hero calls (147)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ts, Qh, 3s ]
Hero checks
Szilard83 checks
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 5s ]
Hero bets (297)
Szilard83 calls (297)
** Dealing River ** : [ 7d ]
Hero bets (891)
Szilard83 raises 4859 to 4859
Szilard83 is all-In.

Hero???

[TommyGunne]

Fold preflop and call now imo. I bet a little less on the river and a good bit more on the turn too.

[Wesley Harms]

I'm never folding this pre, ever

[Tremolo1]

I'm never folding this pre, ever

well then you're making a -cEv play

[DaKlowen]

we're getting 3/1 on the p/f call

[Guest]

Don't see how this can be a fold pre. Firstly due to the price we're offered in the hand itself, and second on a meta level that we have to be able to have sets in our range when playing back on flops oop on low boards.
Some reads would help. I agree with TG's bet-sizing advice but in a vacuum its pretty hard for you to be ahead here.

EDIT: just realised we're on 30bb deep. The above is still true, but less so on all counts!

[peterswellman]

I call here. We are supposed to need to get 13/1 in implied odds although some reccomend 15/1 on what we are calling which we are getting. I'm not folding here either.

River is disgusting. Villain is good so I fold.

[Mellor]

PF should bea fold, but I can see myself makign the auto-click in reality.

I bet more on the turn, and less on the river. As played, I'm not too happy to call it off here. But we've less than 2k if we fold, and are getting c.5/2 on the call. The villain has us covered, so the effective push is much smaller.
We only need to be good here 30% of the time. I think we have that and call it off.

we're getting 3/1 on the p/f call

Only 3/1, is one of the reasons to fold.

[TheWitchDoctor]

I'm always calling this pre for a few reason we are getting over 20-1 implies odds if we hit our set and he has a big pair, we are closing the action so we don't have to worry about getting squeezed, sometimes we actually have the best hand here and can call down a street or 2 on some boards and as mentioned above we need sets in our range.

You haven't mentioned any reads you have on the guy or what value a tournament this is so its really hard to comment I think if its a 20 buy in or lower I def call as you'd see a lot more of the loan ace of suit tilt shoving a river after they miss.

But even as played it would take a very tricky opponent to play a 4 card flush on the flop like that he is missing so much fold equity by not betting it cause you will be folding a lot of the time out of the blinds.

As it has played out no hand makes sense to me that shoves the river and beats you, if they show a flush mark them and watch to see if they are a very good or very bad player for future reference..

[gorrrr72]

Pretty easy call preflop closing the action and already in for 120.

I like the way it was played by Rory. The bet on the turn is small which looks like a stab and if villain has a nut type hand he probably won't raise for fear of losing his customer.

I like the bet on the river as it leaves the villain (if he is anyway competent) no room to make a move on the river. He has to expect to be called so much that a bluff just doesn't work.

Puke fold.

[Arazi]

I think you have to call here. He could easily be FOS here, I'd expect him to have bet the flop here with a flopped flushdraw. I'd only expect to see turned or rivered sets beating me.

I wouldn't have any real faults in your bet sizing although I could possibly donk lead this flop as on that texture it could induce a big mistake. I'd be more comfortable with the donk lead given stacks rather than a CC C turn line or a CR line.

[Mellor]

I like the bet on the river as it leaves the villain (if he is anyway competent) no room to make a move on the river. He has to expect to be called so much that a bluff just doesn't work.

Puke fold.

He's 54% ROI with an ABI of $60+ for 2011 so far. So pretty safe to assume he's competent

[AndyFatBastard]

Villian really, really looks full of shit. I don't think I can fold. If he's got you beat here then he's played his hand terribly.

[gorrrr72]

He's 54% ROI with an ABI of $60+ for 2011 so far. So pretty safe to assume he's competent

So he should know that bluffing in this spot just won't work. Rory's bet on the river looks strong, villain doesn't shove 2 pair here and if he is doing it with a busted FD/SD or some other airball it's lolbad imo.

[TheWitchDoctor]

So he should know that bluffing in this spot just won't work. Rory's bet on the river looks strong, villain doesn't shove 2 pair here and if he is doing it with a busted FD/SD or some other airball it's lolbad imo.

Ya i have to agree here too knowing these stats, guess he just played it wierd in the hopes of getting paid off big or else he is doing some crazy meta game shit, that being said if ye are both regs and would meet each other a lot I still dont hate a call for info here as its still early in this tourni so you have only some time invested thats online me though not live me and most probably a bad leak ..

[DaKlowen]

should we not bet flop ?

[gorrrr72]

should we not bet flop ?

We can donk bet but if he just folds you feel like a tool.

Not sure if Rory's plan was to C/R or C/C on the flop but if villain has a low FD and thinks he might get C/R then he can check it behind and probably still get paid if he hits.

[Downtown]

My thinking on the hand is this.

I hate folding preflop here. Understand the math but think I'd rather give up poker than fold pre here.

I think its fairly standard checking the flop. I just check 100% of my range here to keep things easy.

Once he checks back, I am betting 100% of turns. Think half pot is fine. The turn bringing the flush didnt scare me. I was sure he would bet most of his FD hands. Sometimes players will check back flopped sets, but I doubt it on this board. He bets all his over pairs and top pair hands on the flop too. Once he calls my turn bet, I was thinking he could have a hand like A10 with the As.

Thought it was a safe river so go ahead and look for value. Once he shoves I think is so thin to call here. Its an easy call for him if he has any showdown with hands 2 pair, top pair or over pair hands. Some players are good enough to value shove a better set here but most just call. So its really a flush or bluff. I leaned towards believing him here. In my experience most times you bet the river and get shoved on, they have it. Just a gross spot.

[peterswellman]

Can someone please tell my why it's so bad to call here pre?

We're getting 22/1 on our implied odds when sometimes it can be standard enough just to call with 13/1?

That's not even including the times we have the best hand anyway? I don't think it's that bad, I understand the difficulties of been OOP against a good player but the implied odds are just a case of always calling here for me.

[Winning!]

call/fold pre is really stat dependent. If hes overly aggro and has potential to stack off a lot of chips with TP type hands or barrel bluffs on multiple streets then it can be a profitable spot to call, but if decent or otherwise passive we simply wont have the necessary implied odds.

I'd c/c the turn to c/r or overbet the river some vs a decent reg as a lot of his flop check back range will bet this turn for thin value and we're unlikely to get a call from his A-high check back range on two streets by betting anyway. It also reps fairly thin and he'll realise this.

As played b/call river all day, never folding a set in this spot. He reps nothing but AX maybe non-nut flushes like K/QX a bit too, but would have expected them to cbet the flop a large % of the time and not many of them to shove over your river bet given our line is quite strong on that board.

[Kie Diddy]

So he should know that bluffing in this spot just won't work. Rory's bet on the river looks strong, villain doesn't shove 2 pair here and if he is doing it with a busted FD/SD or some other airball it's lolbad imo.

If villain knows hero is competant however, and that hero knows that it's a terrible bluffing spot hten that in fact makes it a great bluffing spot no?

imo i prob call it off unless histroy with player makes me very wary of him as a tricky player

[gorrrr72]

If villain knows hero is competant however, and that hero knows that it's a terrible bluffing spot hten that in fact makes it a great bluffing spot no?

imo i prob call it off unless histroy with player makes me very wary of him as a tricky player

The problem with this is if Rory knows that the villain knows that Rory knows that it's a bad bluffing spot then he also knows that the villain might try a bluff, making it a bad bluffing spot anyway

[Kie Diddy]

The problem with this is if Rory knows that the villain knows that Rory knows that it's a bad bluffing spot then he also knows that the villain might try a bluff, making it a bad bluffing spot anyway

i know we can play this game forever... it's a tough spot, indeed in restrospect having re-read the hand, villain is almost never bluffing here as u rightly say, our line is quirky thou as we only rep pretty much what we have so i still think it's a call...?

[8611]

At first I couldn't see why you posted this hand but now I'd be about as close as I could be to folding a set on this kind of board. I cannot see a good player doing this on the river with two pair or less. And I don't buy the levelling argument, unless he has history with you. So I prob fold unless I'm playing several games that night in which case I call and put it down to a cooler if I'm beat. I know that's bad reasoning but you know what I mean.

[Downtown]

i know we can play this game forever... it's a tough spot, indeed in restrospect having re-read the hand, villain is almost never bluffing here as u rightly say, our line is quirky thou as we only rep pretty much what we have so i still think it's a call...?

I play a fair few hands like this not just sets. Would be looking for value alot thinner here. I also play a flush like this too which makes it all the more interesting imo.

[Mellor]

Can someone please tell my why it's so bad to call here pre?
We're getting 22/1 on our implied odds when sometimes it can be standard enough just to call with 13/1?

It's only 22/1 if he stacks off everytime we spike on the flop. Which he doesn't.

[peterswellman]

It's only 22/1 if he stacks off everytime we spike on the flop. Which he doesn't.

But we might also have the best hand alot and win a pot without having to stack off. Considering we're never going to huge a monster pot when we don't actually hit our set, I think it's fine.

If he only stacks a small percentage of that time we do flop a set it's worth it imo. Tiny risk, chance at big award and the implied odds are much better than the generally required 13-15/1.