Satellite bubble spot

[Strewelpeter]

2 seats paying 10/1 on investment and buy in +50% for 3rd

playing 3 handed
100 / 200 12 minute blinds
Button: 40K
SB: 2300
BB: 4200

Button has raised every single hand and taken it unopposed in three laps since it went three handed.
Button was OTT aggressive before, he got the huge stack getting it in bad and hitting time after time. He called off 70% to 4th place finisher with 22 and spiked against QQ.
SB has had a double up from button just before going 3 handed KK holding otherwise has not played a hand.

Button opens top 500
SB folds
BB has AsKs

???

[Bubbleking]

personally Id ship it. you are 70% against a random hand and doubling up here should nearly guarantee you a ticket.

[premierstone]

Yeah id ship here aswell, fair enough its pretty much what the SB wants to happen but AK is far too strong here.

[thechamp87]

If I was the button I'd be shoving blind every hand. I prob shove the AKss there from the BB.

[Steveymac86]

Folding is an option here though because you are leaving the pressure on the SB to double up, its all about getting the ticket and the button could have 83o and hit and send you packing????

[premierstone]

Folding is an option here though because you are leaving the pressure on the SB to double up, its all about getting the ticket and the button could have 83o and hit and send you packing????

Exactly, thats the whole conundrum here, we know were ahead 99%+, but the dynamics of the satellite changes everything, the reason I would advocate the shove is we are actually not that far ahead of the SB in the first place but if we get our double up here were laughing and wont find many more +ev spots than this.

[Bubbleking]

Folding is an option here though because you are leaving the pressure on the SB to double up, its all about getting the ticket and the button could have 83o and hit and send you packing????

because the BTN is raising ever hand the SB is going to have a freerole at a shot of doubling up where his equity is at least 50% (probably closer to 60 because BTN has ATC and SB can be a bit selective)

current ICM shows us that we have 34% and SB has 15%

If we shove here and double up which we are a 3/1 fav to do so we move to 42% and SB ICM gets decimated to 9%

If we fold here and SB doubles up ICM equity changes to 26% and 24% respectively

So yeah Iv no problem banging it in as a 3/1 favourite as it is the correct play.

[Dice75]

From experience you never want to get drawn into a race to the bottom with AN Other stack even if you are as much as double their stack. If you do you are letting them choose when to gamble & pick their spot to put you in trouble.

Dont be the weak one & fold hands like AKs coz it only takes one hand for other short stack to Double up & then where are we left?

[Strewelpeter]

...even if you are as much as double their stack. If you do you are letting them choose when to gamble & pick their spot to put you in trouble.
...

Is it significant here that BB has slightly less than double SB's stack.
If he had say 6500 would it make it any nearer a fold?

BK's ICM figures are interesting, I assume 50% = a ticket in that model yea?

[Flushdraw]

Is it significant here that Button has slightly less than double SB's stack.
If he had say 6500 would it make it any nearer a fold?

BK's ICM figures are interesting, I assume 50% = a ticket in that model yea?

Has the button 40k or 4k??

[Strewelpeter]

Has the button 40k or 4k??

40K and will probably call with ATC
OK I see what you mean typo fixed in previous post

[Flushdraw]

Is it significant here that Button has slightly less than double SB's stack.
If he had say 6500 would it make it any nearer a fold?

BK's ICM figures are interesting, I assume 50% = a ticket in that model yea?

40K and will probably call with ATC

SB has 2300 and Button has 40k so he has a billion times his stack, or am i missing something

[Flushdraw]

Ah right, didn't realise it was a typo there. I'm shoving AKs here. If we had an extra 2-3k i might think about folding but it only takes the SB to wake up with 1 decent hand and we're on the shortstack. Ship it and embrace the variance

[Mellor]

current ICM shows us that we have 34% and SB has 15%

If we shove here and double up which we are a 3/1 fav to do so we move to 42% and SB ICM gets decimated to 9%

If we fold here and SB doubles up ICM equity changes to 26% and 24% respectively

How are you working out these figure?
They look completely different to my calcs.

Prizes = 100/100/15 (ticket/ticket/buy-in+50%)

If we fold;
Stacks = 40,000/2200/4000
ICM = 99%/45%/70%

If we call and double up
Stacks = 36,000/2200/8500
ICM = 98%/33%/83%

If we are 55% or better its a call.
We easily have that so ship it imo. As BK mentions the SB doubling up is a very real possibility and pretty much screws us

[BuChan]

satellites hurt my brain, must do some reading. is it completely terrible to call and only get it in if you flop a pair or better?

[Mellor]

Yeah, pretty terrible imo

[Lplated]

...

[Strewelpeter]

From memory, in Colin Moshmans book on sng strategy he advises folding every hand here except A,A.

The idea i think is to force the short stack to do the donkey work - and only react or get active when or if you become the shortstack.

At the moment your chips are worth a huge amount, in that 1st and 2nd get the same prize, even though the current chip leader has almost 10 times more than you.

Its very different thinking to where you are 'going for the win' or not looking to simply scale up the pay ladder.

I think this is a fairly easy fold.

I think it makes a huge difference that BB has slightly less than double the SB's stack, IMO it becomes a fold then but not at the stacks we have here.


FWIW I was the SB and the Button spiked again, which was nice.

[Lplated]

I edited out my first reply because my moshman point was wrong - he advocated that for on the bubble play and obviously as posted all three were getting something.

Have to say my instinct, as bb, would still be to fold, assuming that the 15 euro 3rd prize meant nothing to you, but the 100 euro 1st or 2nd actually did.

Also think the 'theory' on this kind of play is very different here, where you are playing a 'one-off' satellite, as distinct from a regular sng.

[Strewelpeter]

I edited out my first reply because my moshman point was wrong - he advocated that for on the bubble play and obviously as posted all three were getting something.

Have to say my instinct, as bb, would still be to fold, assuming that the 15 euro 3rd prize meant nothing to you, but the 100 euro 1st or 2nd actually did.

Also think the 'theory' on this kind of play is very different here, where you are playing a 'one-off' satellite, as distinct from a regular sng.

Sorry I didn't notice your edit. here third is little more than money back so its a very steep bubble, anyway thanks.