100NL: Me Wanting To Be A Nit... Again

[TommyGunne]

Villain is 18/13 over 200 hands and seems pretty solid. Certainly hasn't gotten out of line much. Feck all reads other than that he's solid.

He'd probably view me about 24/21 over those 200 hands, maybe a little looser. If he has played me previously under a different SN he probably knows I'm a 200NL semireg, and would have me around 21/18 and maybe a little bluff happy, but not crazy or anything.

This is still a supereasy shove vs QT and AK right? I just think it might be a little thin given ranges on this board but I'm probably wrong. Only other option is a c/f right? And thats stoopid right?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($100)
Button ($84)
SB ($57.66)
BB ($184.72)
UTG ($177.40)

Dealt to Hero:99

Preflop:
UTG bets $3.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 9, J, K (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $5.62, Hero raises $18.24, UTG calls $12.62

Turn: ($43.98) A (2 players)
Hero bets $36, UTG calls $36

River: ($115.98) J (2 players)

Hero....

[digiman]

Who is hero?

[TommyGunne]

Edited now.

[digiman]

I still don't get it!!!

[Guest]

Why would you c/f? only hand id be worried about is AJ

[TommyGunne]

I still don't get it!!!

Hero flops a set, gets money in, more money in on turn, rivers a house and is actually wondering about not valuebetting.

[digiman]

Hero flops a set, gets money in, more money in on turn, rivers a house and is actually wondering about not valuebetting.

2nd edit is much better!!! I don't like shoving as he may fold AK, I would rather bet like 30 and fold. It would get a call from his KQ, AQ type hands that were planning to fold to a river bet but may call now

[Line Us]

Sick spot against a nit. Cant see any value in shoving but you cant check fold either. Its a bit ghey but maybe bet small and fold to a raise as he's never going to bluff worse.

edit: Was typing this when Digiman posted 30-40 looks good alright

[Angry-Ball]

I still don't get it!!!

[Mellor]

blocker bet for me

[TommyGunne]

What do people like on blank rivers? If the same, which I suspect, does that make our turn bet bad?

[Sledgejammer]

I'd definitely bet the turn, it's the ultimate card he'll expect us to blindly barrel while at the same time improves his hand to aces which he isn't folding quite a bit.

That's actually quite a weird spot on the river. I don't think he's calling with AK unless we make a tiny bet like people are suggesting, but I don't like that myself because we don't know how much that'll induce on the river. I also think QT raises the turn a lot for a variety of reasons, so I'm not sure how often he has it on this river. I think I start by checking...

[Rycn]

Big bet on the end to make it look like a bluff, if you bet small to a player like this he'll know your betting for value.

[Fuzzy Logic]

Nobody ever bluffs in that spot, what worse hand will he call with? Gay bet/fold seems fine.

[Moneymaker]

Yeah, I suppose bet/fold, checking might not be too bad, but it'd make me swear a lot if he just checked back AK.

[TommyGunne]

I'd definitely bet the turn, it's the ultimate card he'll expect us to blindly barrel while at the same time improves his hand to aces which he isn't folding quite a bit.

Yes but its the river line I'm worried about. Our range is much much more capped than his. Turn improves his range and not really ours. There are so few value hands that we can have, and so few bluffs other than like 9Tss.

Like on every river, bar with QTs (which we don't have really from preflop) we're in a horrible spot where we can only either blocker or c/f, cos c/c is obv not fantastic. He'll check back KJ almost always, and the weakest he can vb is AK.

I think we've got the nut bad turn card for our entire range. I think checking our entire range here is better.

I'd really like to hear thoughts on that though.

[reilly110]

cant see too many hands you can have for value here except set 9s or quad jacks or q10s and lower wieghted j10s

i think 50-55 and fold to shove seems good-a smaller river bet just feels really exploitable

[JamieCarra]

Yes but its the river line I'm worried about. Our range is much much more capped than his. Turn improves his range and not really ours. There are so few value hands that we can have, and so few bluffs other than like 9Tss.

Like on every river, bar with QTs (which we don't have really from preflop) we're in a horrible spot where we can only either blocker or c/f, cos c/c is obv not fantastic. He'll check back KJ almost always, and the weakest he can vb is AK.

I think we've got the nut bad turn card for our entire range. I think checking our entire range here is better.

I'd really like to hear thoughts on that though.

Why would villain ever check back KJ here?

[TommyGunne]

Why would villain ever check back KJ here?

On blank rivers? I think there is no chance he bets. There is literally no hand in my range to get value from. I don't think I'd call AQ or AT there, and AT has a ridiculously low weighting in my range, AQ has a semi-low weighting anyway.

On this river, no chance he checks back. There is almost nothing in my range that beats him, and there are a few hands that call. And on top of that, "OMG I HAS A BOAT!" Him checking back KJ happens 0% on this river.

[JamieCarra]

On blank rivers? I think there is no chance he bets. There is literally no hand in my range to get value from. I don't think I'd call AQ or AT there, and AT has a ridiculously low weighting in my range, AQ has a semi-low weighting anyway.

On this river, no chance he checks back. There is almost nothing in my range that beats him, and there are a few hands that call. And on top of that, "OMG I HAS A BOAT!" Him checking back KJ happens 0% on this river.

Apologies, read your post wrong, thought you were saying you expected him to check back KJ after he filled up.

[TheSnapper]

Is he ever flat calling the turn with QT versus so much calling potential in your range?
I dont see much calling value at all in his range, bet $40 and cry if repopped.

[Line Us]

I think we've got the nut bad turn card for our entire range. I think checking our entire range here is better.

I'd really like to hear thoughts on that though.

Do you mean check this turn by this? I think you have to bet this turn for value, I'd put his range for calling the flop checkraise as pretty tight, AA KK JJ obviously but he has way more combos of AK, KJ and maybe KQ and AJs in his range for you not to bet this turn. I dont think a 18/13 will turn up much if ever here with Q10 either. Seems like way too much value to be had not to bet the turn.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,276 games 0.005 secs 255,200 games/sec

Board: 9h Jc Ks As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.401% 63.40% 00.00% 809 0.00 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 36.599% 36.60% 00.00% 467 0.00 { KK+, JJ, AKs, AJs, KJs, AKo, KJo }

[Moneymaker]

What happened anyway? I'm pretty curious as I don't have a clue what i'd do here.

[TommyGunne]

What happened anyway? I'm pretty curious as I don't have a clue what i'd do here.

I shoved, which is pretty awful. He had KJ.

[Hectorjelly]

Shoving isn't awful. This thread is ridiculous, you are out of position with a house & less than a pot bet left. Shoving is better as check calling means the money is more likely to go in good. (since he is unlikely to be bluffing)

[Closed_Account]

What HJ said plus one million.

[Sledgejammer]

Shoving to get called by what? Do you really think a value shove is profitable here?