Interesting 600nl hand

[Pistol Peter]

CO is running 28/17/2 over 350 hands. He is only cbetting around 50%. Seems kinda fishy but not terrible. My plan was to fire heart rivers otherwise try to check down.

No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (Button) ($896.25)
SB ($624.15)
BB ($643.50)
UTG ($600)
MP ($996.10)
CO ($600)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2(s), 2(d)
2 folds, CO bets $18, Hero calls $18, 2 folds

Flop: ($45) Q(c), Q(h), 7(h) (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $26, CO calls $26

Turn: ($97) J(d) (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($97) 2(c) (2 players)
CO bets $52, Hero raises $164, CO raises $504 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $425


Aint played too much holdem lately but was reading through some hands on 2+2 and thought this one was very interesting.
Few different replies regarding heros river decision.
Thoughts?

[Bubbleking]

in villains eyes hero reps fcuk all

in heros eyes villain reps even less

hero has to have him nailed on for QQ or JJ (fairly sure 77 fires a cbet) to fold here which he doesnt have all that often so I never fold there

[AndyFatBastard]

Interesting.I'd probably call in the end but I'm never feeling good about it. I would assume this villian isn't clever enough to have any air in his range, but we're only losing to part of his value range. I guess the problem here is that he should bet the turn if he has a Q that isn't a full house already...

Tricky spot.

[RoadSweeper]

Strange hand.


I probably go ahead and fold now.

[reilly110]

think i would be passing pretty quickly

people always turn up with monsters here if they are ok players -if they are super bad or super good i would defo think bout calling

[digiman]

Its really villan dependant.

Against a fish I call
Weak tight nit I fold
Passive reg I fold
Solid reg I call
Very good reg I call

[ianmc38]

Looks like an easy fold. Gonna be the nutleys or close to it.

Reilly I dont thik any good player would take this line with a full house/quads. If they did, I would not classify them as a good player. This is a standard fish line with the immortal nuts, the only difference being he didn't whammo the pot button on the river.

[Pistol Peter]

Its really villan dependant.

Against a fish I call
Weak tight nit I fold
Passive reg I fold
Solid reg I call
Very good reg I call

Our range is pretty much weighted towards 22 or a stone cold bluff, and if we have a bluff the reg prob calls more often unless he floated the flop oop with a weak holding.
And he obv and shoving a bare Q on the river, also he if he is good he will know 22 is a large part of our range and wont try to make us fold a boat.

[handofgod]

I'd call

If people want to fold to river 3bet, is raising river a bit thin or is Qx a big enough part of his range?

[DeadParrot]

Its really villan dependant.

Against a fish I call
Weak tight nit I fold
Passive reg I fold
Solid reg I call
Very good reg I call

this is the line I'd take.
leaning more and more to a call though.
surely bare queen thinks he is good here.
Your line looks weird, even missed fd like weird, that river card was a blank in villians mind.

[AndyFatBastard]

I'd call

If people want to fold to river 3bet, is raising river a bit thin or is Qx a big enough part of his range?

I think there's tons of worse hands that call the raise. It's not very thin at all. The only reason not to raise is if you're worried about being 3bet, but that's a pretty bad reason not to raise.

[handofgod]

I think there's tons of worse hands that call the raise. It's not very thin at all. The only reason not to raise is if you're worried about being 3bet, but that's a pretty bad reason not to raise.

What hands do you think call the river raise? There is no history given, so villain is unlikely to call with less than Qx imo especially as Jx is unlikely. Hero looks fos on river, but I still dont think he calls with something like TT unless there is history. He might not lead river with a mid pair. Raising to fold to a 3bet doesnt seem great to me as we dont know he wont 3bet Qx and his calling range outside of Qx is almost non existant imo

[DeadParrot]

The more I think about this the more I'm itching to call.
IanMc said this is always nutley or close to it.
Aq, kq appears huge here.

[RoadSweeper]

No one is 3balling the river with KQ or AQ

[AndyFatBastard]

What hands do you think call the river raise? There is no history given, so villain is unlikely to call with less than Qx imo especially as Jx is unlikely. Hero looks fos on river, but I still dont think he calls with something like TT unless there is history. He might not lead river with a mid pair. Raising to fold to a 3bet doesnt seem great to me as we dont know he wont 3bet Qx and his calling range outside of Qx is almost non existant imo

Like you said, we look full of shit because we checked the turn when the board was wet and the 2c was a complete blank. Combined with our suspicions that villian is bad, he is capable of calling with all his bluff catchers here. So AA, KK, 88-TT, QX, J7, A7 (ok A7 is thin but not unheard of) are all possibilities. Remember that villian's cbet is low, so he can definitely play those hands passively on this kind of flop. When we check the turn and the river bricks, he bets because he thinks he probably has the best hand. We lose value from those hands by not raising. If we assume he never has a worse hand if he 3bets us, then it's a really obvious move.

Actually, if you look at this in terms of pure combos it's much clearer:

Win:
AA - 12
KK - 12
TT - 12
99 - 12
88 - 12
AQ - 8
KQ - 8
QT - 8
J7 - 9
A7 - 12

Total combos in which we have the best hand: 101

Lose:
QQ - 1
JJ - 6
77 - 6
Q7 - 6
QJ - 6

Total combos in which we have the worst hand: 25

So of the 126 hands in the range I have constructed for our opponent to check/call the flop, check the turn, and bet the river, we have the best hand against 101 of them. Even assuming he only calls a raise with AQ and KQ, (and I think it's much wider than that) that's 24 combos of hands he calls with vs 25 we have to fold to. So we only have to construct our raise size appropriately to make raise-fold a much more profitable move than calling.

Are my sums sound?

[handofgod]

Like you said, we look full of shit because we checked the turn when the board was wet and the 2c was a complete blank. Combined with our suspicions that villian is bad, he is capable of calling with all his bluff catchers here. So AA, KK, 88-TT, QX, J7, A7 (ok A7 is thin but not unheard of) are all possibilities. Remember that villian's cbet is low, so he can definitely play those hands passively on this kind of flop. When we check the turn and the river bricks, he bets because he thinks he probably has the best hand. We lose value from those hands by not raising. If we assume he never has a worse hand if he 3bets us, then it's a really obvious move.

Actually, if you look at this in terms of pure combos it's much clearer:

Win:
AA - 12
KK - 12
TT - 12
99 - 12
88 - 12
AQ - 8
KQ - 8
QT - 8
J7 - 9
A7 - 12

Total combos in which we have the best hand: 101

Lose:
QQ - 1
JJ - 6
77 - 6
Q7 - 6
QJ - 6

Total combos in which we have the worst hand: 25

So of the 126 hands in the range I have constructed for our opponent to check/call the flop, check the turn, and bet the river, we have the best hand against 101 of them. Even assuming he only calls a raise with AQ and KQ, (and I think it's much wider than that) that's 24 combos of hands he calls with vs 25 we have to fold to. So we only have to construct our raise size appropriately to make raise-fold a much more profitable move than calling.

Are my sums sound?

theres only 6 combos of pocket pairs AA etc, only 3 of JJ and 77

Personally I think KK+ very unlikely. I would be very surprised to see Q7 or J7 and I doubt we see A7 often either. I'd expect Q9s to be a possibility and maybe some missed fds

raise/fold is prob ok, but I wouldnt like to assume anyone who plays Qx this way is never 3betting it, and I think our raise gets calls from less than Qx very rarely

[Line Us]

No one is 3balling the river with KQ or AQ

This plus nobody doesn't cbet those + QJ/77 on the flop with the flush draw there so they don't get to the river like this with those hands. The only argument for calling the river is that most people will/should also cbet JJ in this spot on the flop,thats all he is repping on the river.

I'd fold river though here as its a badly played JJ every time and I'd doubt anyone bluffs there. I'd doubt a good player will ever take the line of the villian in this spot so people saying I'd call if he's good is pretty pointless as I'd doubt most good players get to the river like this in the first place.

[Line Us]

Like you said, we look full of shit because we checked the turn when the board was wet and the 2c was a complete blank. Combined with our suspicions that villian is bad, he is capable of calling with all his bluff catchers here. So AA, KK, 88-TT, QX, J7, A7 (ok A7 is thin but not unheard of) are all possibilities. Remember that villian's cbet is low, so he can definitely play those hands passively on this kind of flop. When we check the turn and the river bricks, he bets because he thinks he probably has the best hand. We lose value from those hands by not raising. If we assume he never has a worse hand if he 3bets us, then it's a really obvious move.

An average cbet for 600nl is probably about 60% so over 320 hands the villlian having a cbet of 50% doesnt actually mean a whole lot so not much can actually be drawn from it and definitely the range you have given the villian is miles out, on a dryish board like this co vs button his cbet will be closer to 80% of his entire range. I'd rule out AA,KK, any Q from his check calling range very confidently which leaves his check calling range alot smaller than you are assuming. I still agree with you though that the river is a raise but not as clear cut or as proftable as you make out at all but still +ev

[Pistol Peter]

This plus nobody doesn't cbet those + QJ/77 on the flop with the flush draw there so they don't get to the river like this with those hands. The only argument for calling the river is that most people will/should also cbet JJ in this spot on the flop,thats all he is repping on the river.

I'd fold river though here as its a badly played JJ every time and I'd doubt anyone bluffs there. I'd doubt a good player will ever take the line of the villian in this spot so people saying I'd call if he's good is pretty pointless as I'd doubt most good players get to the river like this in the first place.

Or a badly played QQ, either way i think we are ahead very very seldom

[digiman]

@ Line Us, do you not think a good villan could take this line with say 88-TT looking to get thin value from some weaker hands but knows when he gets raised that hes most likely hero has got a better hand but never a very very strong hand that he can call it off with.

Like anytime hands like these are posted people on forums always say to fold etc, but I know from experience that people are doing this. Do you remember the hand you had vs nanonko?

Also I have had plenty of very similar hands in the past were they their hands into bluff like this on the river. I still think this is a call against good winning players, especially the type that have dropped down in the stakes due to not enough games at higher levels.

[DeadParrot]

No one is 3balling the river with KQ or AQ

hero's line looks weak as hell to me.
I think a bare q turns his hand into a bluff more than you believe.


lol....sorry digiman, didnt see your post

[Pistol Peter]

hero's line looks weak as hell to me.
I think a bare q turns his hand into a bluff more than you believe.


lol....sorry digiman, didnt see your post

If heros line is weak then villian surely has no need to turn his hand into a bluff?

[AndyFatBastard]

theres only 6 combos of pocket pairs AA etc, only 3 of JJ and 77

You're right, silly me confusing my permutations with combinations again. I'll redo the sums for my own sake at least.

An average cbet for 600nl is probably about 60% so over 320 hands the villlian having a cbet of 50% doesnt actually mean a whole lot so not much can actually be drawn from it and definitely the range you have given the villian is miles out, on a dryish board like this co vs button his cbet will be closer to 80% of his entire range.

I guess I'm just assuming the villian is quite bad and might play more like a 50/1 hand. Fair point well made.

[digiman]

hero's line looks weak as hell to me.
I think a bare q turns his hand into a bluff more than you believe.


lol....sorry digiman, didnt see your post

I dont think a Q turns there hand into a bluff here, maybe something like AJ does though

[ianmc38]

Lol @ a queen turning the hand into a bluff. That's really beyond belief. 3balling this river as a bluff is madness. I would expect any thin value hand to call and any nutted hand to shove here. Trying to bluff people of full houses is probably one of the worst ideas you could ever come up with in poker.

[Line Us]

@ Line Us, do you not think a good villan could take this line with say 88-TT looking to get thin value from some weaker hands but knows when he gets raised that hes most likely hero has got a better hand but never a very very strong hand that he can call it off with.

Like anytime hands like these are posted people on forums always say to fold etc, but I know from experience that people are doing this. Do you remember the hand you had vs nanonko?

Also I have had plenty of very similar hands in the past were they their hands into bluff like this on the river. I still think this is a call against good winning players, especially the type that have dropped down in the stakes due to not enough games at higher levels.

Ya I think villian(good or bad) has 88-1010 even 7x the majority of the time here when he bets river but our range is then polarised when we raise, I don't agree that we raise here with better hands that cant call a shove( you could argure Qx but I bet all those on the turn again)? A call seems by far better from his point of view with anything he bets for value? Like what hand do we fold to a shove that 88-1010 doesnt beat, just 22 and he is hardly trying to get us to fold that surely. Our hand is exactly 22 or air here and i dont think he's going to try tomake us fold 22 enough to call his shove, its just a spot where he will always have the nuts.

Ya i remember the nanonko hand but my hand wasn't polarised like it is here iirc, he tried to get me to fold ax's that were splitting with him or better ax's than his.

[Line Us]

I dont think a Q turns there hand into a bluff here, maybe something like AJ does though

Surely aj doesnt go for thin value though on the river, just hopes to showdown? The only hand that makes sense to bluff with is 7x as he has blockers to 77 but thats is just pretty unlikely.

[digiman]

Ya I think villian(good or bad) has 88-1010 even 7x the majority of the time here when he bets river but our range is then polarised when we raise, I don't agree that we raise here with better hands that cant call a shove( you could argure Qx but I bet all those on the turn again)? A call seems by far better from his point of view with anything he bets for value? Like what hand do we fold to a shove that 88-1010 doesnt beat, just 22 and he is hardly trying to get us to fold that surely. Our hand is exactly 22 or air here and i dont think he's going to try tomake us fold 22 enough to call his shove, its just a spot where he will always have the nuts.

I really find it hard to understand these hands I guess as I never take the villans line so its hard to think of hands that I could be doing it with!!

[digiman]

Surely aj doesnt go for thin value though on the river, just hopes to showdown? The only hand that makes sense to bluff with is 7x as he has blockers to 77 but thats is just pretty unlikely.

Think our wires are crossed here somewhere. Im saying CO may have AJ, same way as I said hes normally value betting 88-TT on the river

[Line Us]

Think our wires are crossed here somewhere. Im saying CO may have AJ, same way as I said hes normally value betting 88-TT on the river

My bad! forgot aj was 2pair!

[DeadParrot]

I obviously need to spend more time around the theory section reading.

However, I dont believe villains hand is exactly the nuts(or whatever beats us)
I still think a lot of villains range is Qx

[digiman]

Ya I'm saying why would co bet aj for thin value on river or otherwise, surely he hopes you check it back alot, if aj was good on the flop then its still good alot by river?

You need to learn the hand rankings, AJ = 2pair which is a better hand that A high!!

[Moneymaker]

Eh, I fold. I don't ever see even AQ shoving here. It's so hard and its such a small range that beats us, but I still fold.