50nl Nut Flush Sizing and Ranges

[Guest]

The guy in this hand is 18/12/1.4 over 120 hands. When he raises flop I put him on AJ, JJ, 55, and flushdraws like KQ, maybe some lower ones too.
What do you think of the turn betsizing and how much now on the river? Note we started hand a little deep.

I think by the time he gets to the river his range is very much weighted towards sets as he strikes me as the type of player who would get scared when the diamond comes down and go into c/c mode. I also think he can have some 2 pairs and I think a lot of his flushes would shove the turn.
Given that I put him on a slightly weaker range on the river I was considering value betting a bit smaller. Thoughts?

Also, I was talking to Digi and he was saying that he'd shove AK there for value. Surely thats burning money. I was saying in reply that if I'm in villains spot with 55 there against me its much closer to a FML call than a snap call and he thought I was crazy.


IPoker Network $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1069409
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: $42.12
CO: $50.00
BTN: $50.00
SB: $98.82
BB: $53.00
Hero (UTG): $67.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with T A
Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.00) A 5 J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.00, SB raises to $10, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($24.00) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $14.75, SB calls $14.75

River: ($53.50) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets how much?

[Emmet]

What you think about turn bet of 17.50 and that makes the river more shoveable?

I think he has a set here almost always. Is he folding these to a shove now though? And what other betsize do we have other than shoving?

[Opr]

You have 3/4 pot bet left on the river, Shove.

Opr

[digiman]

I actually hadnt read the hand right at all when I said that I shove AK for value here, would be a pretty interesting spot on river if you had AK though as to what to bet!!

My main point to you was that you always seem:

1) Never want to call light
2) Never value bet thinly against the regs/non donks
3) Bluff or 3 barrel hands

Your arguments always seem to be that people dont bluff much, well let me tell you that in my experience people do bluff, you just need to start calling more to see that they do

You never seem to want to bet 3 streets unless you have 2pair especially if baord runs out even a little bad, people do call light, just start opening all your buttons your vpip/pfr will go through the roof, your image will be really skewed to most people that they will start calling you down with 2nd pair/top pairs bad kickers, low pocket pairs etc, let them see you with total air ball now and again or get them into spots were they just literally have to call you. Like if you just bet the last 2 hands and he folded, well then bet next time thinly. Most of these guys play their hands face up that they might as well show you that they have QT on a Q high flop. Value town them with QJ+

Start betting 3 streets more often, this is so much more important if you are correct when you say people dont call light, if they dont then exploit them on this. If you are trying this and find that they are calling you light then revert to value betting more.

Most of the low stakes hands on here are about should I call river or should I bet river. You just need to start figuring out what your most regular villans do on the river and start exploiting them. You would say that this is higher variance and it may be a bit but your overall winrate will shoot up, and while the higher variance may not be good it will make you a better and much tougher player to be playing against.

[Guest]

To be fair I 3-barrel plenty if the board runs out right for it, raise 20% of flops, 36% agg, 47% wwsf so I'm not totally nitting it up!
I suppose I just know my image and know what I can and can't get away with pretty well after 3 years of playing it.
I read a good article about how bet-bet-betting just top pair at small stakes is generally a bluff by the river. Can't remember where though. Also more variance is the last thing I want....It actually makes me play much worse so I'm much better off playing a showdown bound game.

[Crow]

You have 3/4 pot bet left on the river, Shove.

Opr

+1

And anything other than a shove would look too strong imo