What calls me here that I beat?

[digiman]

Villan is pretty laggy, playing 31/26 and on RUSH poker. His cbet is 97% over 400 hands (
4 samples) but most of these hands are from rush and I am not sure how that affects the way stats are collected. I would have been raising him small quite a few times in position and he just folds. His turn cbet is 44% but only over samples. He normally has it when he gets it in or seemed to vs me anyway.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($200)
UTG+1 ($238.55)
CO ($225.95)
Hero ($945.20)
SB ($81)
BB ($429.90)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BTN J:heart: K:heart:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: 2:spade: 6:club: J:diamond: ($15, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $10, Hero calls $10

Turn: K:club: ($35, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $23, Hero raises to $65, UTG+1 calls $42

River: A:heart: ($165, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero ........... Villan has $158 behind

[Dice75]

Got to put him on QJ / J10 or a middle suited 6c but i think check behind is ok coz he's not calling with these & i really dont see any value in betting at this stage.

Having said this I've never played Rush Poker so what do I know!

[Emmet]

Disclaimer - I am not good at poker, and play nowhere near these levels, but I like dissecting hands here.

I don't think there are any hands at all that a UTG+1 player will call a valuebet here with that we beat. Especially given the above reads. I think he can have something like AcQc here, but is not making any hero calls with it.

We have the best hand imo, as he should be valuebetting the river with anything that beats us, but I don't think there's any value to be gained in the hand.

Is checking behind weak?

[colquhom]

Ye I think check back. He might find a call with something we beat but it certainly won't outweigh the times we valuecut ourselves.

I'd also just call the turn.

[digiman]

Ye I think check back. He might find a call with something we beat but it certainly won't outweigh the times we valuecut ourselves.

I'd also just call the turn.

Why just call the turn? I was going to be shoving non club, 9 and A rivers fwiw

[Dice75]

Ye I think check back. He might find a call with something we beat but it certainly won't outweigh the times we valuecut ourselves.

I'd also just call the turn.

Never call the turn imo, so much more information gained playing the way he did.

[colquhom]

Why just call the turn? I was going to be shoving non club, 9 and A rivers fwiw

Two Reasons -

1)
He's 31/26 with 97% cbet and 44% turn cbet, i'd say it would be hard to find an opponent with a weaker turn bet range than this guy (mostly because of how often he bets the flop, 44% isnt high but combined its insane). And its 400 hands which isnt that small a sample.

King is obviously the nut bluff card, he'll continue on the river, which we can jam anyway.

2)
Even if he has a strong hand, which he won't most of the time, its basically impossible for us to have air here, we have to be turning something into a bluff like 88, which not everyone will do, so he may even fold some strong hands.

[colquhom]

Never call the turn imo, so much more information gained playing the way he did.

Shouldn't do stuff to "gain info", should do it because its the best way to play the hand, I said why I think so above, feel free to disagree.

[TommyGunne]

I think its played fine and check back. You do have a far different image to me though, but even still I probably check back.

[AndyFatBastard]

most of these hands are from rush and I am not sure how that affects the way stats are collected.

The only difference is that your sample may not be balanced by position in comparison to playing normal tables. I wouldn't worry about it really. I guess after 50 hands a guy could look like a massive nit but it turns out he opens every button - It's just that your sample contains very few hands where he's OTB. This kind of thing is effectively impossible after 400 hands though. I mean after 400 rolls of a dice you should have a relatively even distribution of each number, right?

Also don't forget that since most hands in Rush are in a relative vaccum, your sample is a lot more likely to be an accurate reflection of your opponent's standard game. It's rarely going to be heavily swung by some metagame that was going on while you were gathering stats. Basically, I would expect a 400 hand sample in Rush to be very accurate.

[digiman]

The only difference is that your sample may not be balanced by position in comparison to playing normal tables. I wouldn't worry about it really. I guess after 50 hands a guy could look like a massive nit but it turns out he opens every button - It's just that your sample contains very few hands where he's OTB. This kind of thing is effectively impossible after 400 hands though. I mean after 400 rolls of a dice you should have a relatively even distribution of each number, right?

Also don't forget that since most hands in Rush are in a relative vaccum, your sample is a lot more likely to be an accurate reflection of your opponent's standard game. It's rarely going to be heavily swung by some metagame that was going on while you were gathering stats. Basically, I would expect a 400 hand sample in Rush to be very accurate.

Thats very interesting that you say that, its not something I have looked into very much at all but I have noticed some guys who are total nits overall like 15/13 but when I look at their UTG stats they are like opening 20% and their btn is 8% and I don't have a clue whats going on with them. I will have to check later the sample sizes of each to see if they are balanced. The other thing is that I could be in the SB with some garbage and have folded before they even get to their button or something. The stats are kinda strange alright. Would like to know if you have noticed anything else with them?

[AndyFatBastard]

The other thing is that I could be in the SB with some garbage and have folded before they even get to their button or something. The stats are kinda strange alright. Would like to know if you have noticed anything else with them?

I would have thought that your client (and therefore HEM) would still recieve the full HH of any hand you were dealt into. If not then it would certainly explain a lot of stats seeming off. i.e. You ever got to see the guy raising his button because you instafolded 94o UTG. This calls for an experiment!

[digiman]

I would have thought that your client (and therefore HEM) would still recieve the full HH of any hand you were dealt into. If not then it would certainly explain a lot of stats seeming off. i.e. You ever got to see the guy raising his button because you instafolded 94o UTG. This calls for an experiment!

I'm 99% sure you don't get the full HH at any stage, there are many times that I click sit out and fold so that I can see the rest of the hand play out. You only get to see as what has happened until you have clicked fold afaik

[Emmet]

you definitely used to get the full HH of any hands you were dealt into...