Analyse this!

[TheSnapper]

Hero has few post flop reads , pre-flop he feels he has been run over by villain in spots and that he has not adjusted well to him . He remembers raising utg and getting 3bet by villain, he called and then folded post-flop, villain showed him a bluff with 54s. Hero has also described a situation when villain made a 4bet and hero called with QT leaving only a pot size bet in his stack , villain check folded a KJx flop to heros bet , hero showed villain his QT and villain made remarks that hero sucked .. hero see's villain as crazy [villain is a very good player though]
Villain and hero do not run into each other for quite a while when this hand occurs -

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $20 BB (8 handed)

Hero ($2266.50)
Button ($4795.50)
SB ($8009)
BB ($2652)
UTG ($1230)
UTG+1 ($7836)
MP1 ($3981)
MP2 ($2271)

Pre-Flop: ($30.00), 8 players) Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A


4 folds, Hero raises to $80, 1 fold, SB calls $70, 1 fold.

Flop: ($180.00) 2, K, 6 (2 players)


SB checks, Hero bets $120, SB calls $120.

Turn: ($420.00) 9 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($420.00) T (2 players)


SB bets $180, Hero raises to $440, SB raises to $7809, Hero...? [hero has $1626 behind]


Reading THIS THREAD
reminded me of this hand I had read on another forum. Thought it was interesting,
River spot is tough, your thoughts on.....

what do u think to both players lines?
put villain on a hand anyone?
do you fold,call?

[Lord Sir Banter]

You can't raise?
He has you covered.

[Bubbleking]

Hero's turn check sucks as does his river raise

[DAMO72]

Judging on history you can put villain on either 78,JQ even 2 pr with 9T , KT.
I dont think he is making this play light because of showing the 54 bluff earlier and would expect a call . Fold Now .

[IPB Champ]

1 pair in Holdem is a bluff catcher. I don't play cash but this is the spot u dream about picking up aces against a lag. I wouldn't check the turn and wouldn't raise the river no matter how much I wanted to. I think it's a fold even if he is capable of shoving air. The turn check is horrible IMO because it looks like pot control or peeling a free card with a draw. In his eyes the hero might have to bet to win and he doesn't want to show his hand down. Tough spot to be fair but the hero put himself in it.

[gorrrr72]

Calling there is a losing line in the long term. Easy fold for me. I wouldn't have raised on the river though.

[Moneymaker]

It gives even fish like me hope that people at those stakes can misplay a hand so much.

[TheSnapper]

Hero's turn check sucks as does his river raise

So you bet the turn?

Assuming you bet the turn.....

What do you do facing a turn check raise?
If called are you firing all rivers?

What sucks about the river raise?

[BobSloane]

Raising the river with one pair sucks if you are not snap calling or snap folding to a re-raise.
I know every hand is different and situation dependent etc but in general raise/deciding with one pair on the river reeks of the ghey

[DAMO72]

So you bet the turn?

Assuming you bet the turn.....

What do you do facing a turn check raise?
If called are you firing all rivers?

What sucks about the river raise?

What sucks about the river raise is that you have lost control of the pot and effectively given up your position and its now costing your stack to find out if 1 pr is any good against a villain who is capable of turning over 96 here.

As played i just call his river bet and then kick the cat for calling .

[BobSloane]

Judging on history you can put villain on either 78,JQ even 2 pr with 9T , KT.
I dont think he is making this play light because of showing the 54 bluff earlier and would expect a call . Fold Now .

His most likely value hands are 22,66 or maybe 99 or TT imo. If he's bluffing its because he thinks hero would bet all his big hands and all his turned gutshots on the turn so he figures hero cant have 78/QJ or a set(except TT). Villain is not shipping 9T here unless he is retarded

[DAMO72]

His most likely value hands are 22,66 or maybe 99 or TT imo. If he's bluffing its because he thinks hero would bet all his big hands and all his turned gutshots on the turn so he figures hero cant have 78/QJ or a set(except TT). Villain is not shipping 9T here unless he is retarded

From his earlier bluff with 54 and then showing it i think confirms that he is somewhat retarded

[BobSloane]

From his earlier bluff with 54 and then showing it i think confirms that he is somewhat retarded

If i saw someone 3betting 45s pre it wouldn't in any way confirm for me that he would be shoving 9T on river here. In the first instance he is bluffing pre-flop. The second he has a strong made hand/bluffcatcher on the river and is getting a huge price on a call after betting and getting raised. Its neither here nor there i suppose. I don't agree with the range you give him at all though. You don't include sets although the flop is super dry and ideal to slowplay if there is ever a time but you think he floats flop oop with 78 or 9T and bet 3b shoves 9T on the river? It all seems unlikely to me anyway

[peterswellman]

Why in the name of god would you check the turn for pot control if you're going to raise the river? This is absolute baffling play, maybe it's just a few levels above my think and I don't play cash much but this looks awful.

[AndyFatBastard]

Why in the name of god would you check the turn for pot control if you're going to raise the river? This is absolute baffling play, maybe it's just a few levels above my think and I don't play cash much but this looks awful.

Maybe you should start playing more cash, because your analysis is spot on.

[Alfie]

tbh I see no reason to post a FR 2kNL hand here for analysis in the first place...

I, like 99% of this forum, don't play this high so my take on the hand is prob going to be incredibad from your POV, op. Anyway, I have played close to these stakes a bit...

That said(!), I would assume that there's a good % of hands villain will float this flop with (since it's obv such a dry board a c/r would be too FOS to make any sense/ be profitable, but having no floats/bluffs in his range ever would be bad having flatted pre oop. These hands would prob expect to take it down a lot with a turn c/r so clicking back the turn makes the river pretty interesting, imo.

You describe villain as crazy but "very good". Does this mean there are some hands he b/3b's the river with for value that we beat? There could be some sort of weird levelling going on to induce a call from pure bluff-catchers with the likes of Kx or something, where we beat the range of hands villain takes this line with for razor-thin value, but actually have the best hand... one that he expects to have huge fold equity against. I might be wrong here, and tbh this seems hugely speculative to me at this stage now, but if he's doing something like this sometimes, as well as obv having some/ a lot of complete air in his range... this could easily be a call? I'm now afraid I might be the only idiot here who thinks this is really really close...

I don't know, educate me... by the time I have this typed the world will probably know that villain had 66 or whatever.

P.S. Shit, if he took note of your pre-flop call of a 4bet with QT... he may be less likely to take this line with nil all. I don't know, I have been confused, gg.

[cardshark202]

Generally speaking at these levels you can give the players a little more credit. Such as he checked the turn for deception or he knows something about how his opponent responds vs the turn check that makes it more profitable to bet/check/bet. Maybe he feels he can't get 3 streets for some reason.
Once the guy leads weak into the river it seems like a raise/fold if he's very likely to bet a K. However once the opponent bet-shoves the river it becomes a levelling game. The value hands hero can have that raise the river after checking back the turn and can call a shove are almost non-existent. TT would probably not bet the flop in position, other sets would fire the turn, most turned draws would barrel too. So I think this is where you can level yourself into calling IF you believe the villain is highly capable of turning something he bet thinly for value into a bluff.

[Alfie]

Generally speaking at these levels you can give the players a little more credit. Such as he checked the turn for deception or he knows something about how his opponent responds vs the turn check that makes it more profitable to bet/check/bet. Maybe he feels he can't get 3 streets for some reason.
Once the guy leads weak into the river it seems like a raise/fold if he's very likely to bet a K. However once the opponent bet-shoves the river it becomes a levelling game. The value hands hero can have that raise the river after checking back the turn and can call a shove are almost non-existent. TT would probably not bet the flop in position, other sets would fire the turn, most turned draws would barrel too. So I think this is where you can level yourself into calling IF you believe the villain is highly capable of turning something he bet thinly for value into a bluff.

FML. More or less, THIS.

[Starvin Marvin]

lol i thought this was a donkament hand.

[TheSnapper]

BTW, I am not involved in the hand personally and don't play anywhere close to these stakes. Just want to clarify that I'm in no way trying to create a balla image that may later be used for grimming purposes.

tbh I see no reason to post a FR 2kNL hand here for analysis in the first place...

You open with this negative assumption. Then.....

I, like 99% of this forum, don't play this high so my take on the hand is prob going to be incredibad from your POV, op. Anyway, I have played close to these stakes a bit...

That said(!), I would assume that there's a good % of hands villain will float this flop with (since it's obv such a dry board a c/r would be too FOS to make any sense/ be profitable, but having no floats/bluffs in his range ever would be bad having flatted pre oop. These hands would prob expect to take it down a lot with a turn c/r so clicking back the turn makes the river pretty interesting, imo.

You describe villain as crazy but "very good". Does this mean there are some hands he b/3b's the river with for value that we beat? There could be some sort of weird levelling going on to induce a call from pure bluff-catchers with the likes of Kx or something, where we beat the range of hands villain takes this line with for razor-thin value, but actually have the best hand... one that he expects to have huge fold equity against. I might be wrong here, and tbh this seems hugely speculative to me at this stage now, but if he's doing something like this sometimes, as well as obv having some/ a lot of complete air in his range... this could easily be a call? I'm now afraid I might be the only idiot here who thinks this is really really close...

I don't know, educate me... by the time I have this typed the world will probably know that villain had 66 or whatever.

P.S. Shit, if he took note of your pre-flop call of a 4bet with QT... he may be less likely to take this line with nil all. I don't know, I have been confused, gg.

You delve into some deep level thinking to explore the finer poker nuances at play and proceed to make an excellent response that kind of contradicts your opening sentence.

[TheSnapper]

Generally speaking at these levels you can give the players a little more credit. Such as he checked the turn for deception or he knows something about how his opponent responds vs the turn check that makes it more profitable to bet/check/bet. Maybe he feels he can't get 3 streets for some reason.
Once the guy leads weak into the river it seems like a raise/fold if he's very likely to bet a K. However once the opponent bet-shoves the river it becomes a levelling game. The value hands hero can have that raise the river after checking back the turn and can call a shove are almost non-existent. TT would probably not bet the flop in position, other sets would fire the turn, most turned draws would barrel too. So I think this is where you can level yourself into calling IF you believe the villain is highly capable of turning something he bet thinly for value into a bluff.

Nice post Reggie. As I said I don't play nosebleed stakes but I suspect a players profit at this level is largely dependent on deceptive play and eeking out the thinest of value.

With that in mind, the hero's turn check back serves to weaken his range. Does it then have some merit?

On the river, is'nt hero pretty much at the top of his repped range?

Would flat calling be missing some value?

I'll leave it a little while more before putting up the result if thats ok.

[ianmc38]

It's 2k NL. Never checking the turn with strong hands there would be poor. While I would mostly go for 3 streets, checking can often get us more action that we wouldnt otherwise get with a bet/bet line.

River raise is fine. Villain should be betting pretty much all his Ks for value.

As for calling the rive raise, it's tricky. Based on how we played the hand we have to call some % of the time.

[RedJoker]

It's 2k NL. Never checking the turn with strong hands there would be poor.

If you have some exploitative reason for doing it it's fine but it makes you less balanced rather than more balanced.

[Line Us]

If you have some exploitative reason for doing it it's fine but it makes you less balanced rather than more balanced.

Ya I was thinking the same, no need to be checking back this on the turn, the 9s is going to be a card that id be semibluff barrelling with a fairly wide range and frequency after cbetting a board like this, all spade draws, turned gutters/ openenders etc. I'd say I'd have to keep all decent kings and AA in my range to be anyway balanced here on the turn. Maybe on some turns a check back is fine but on this one I'd be valuebetting close to 100% again.

[TheSnapper]

original thread is here.

Hero (FoxwoodsFiend) folds to the river reraise and villain (Durrrr) who by the way, is far from retarded shows 88.

Is his river weak lead shove genius, spew or someplace in between. He has a marginal hand with showdown value and I suspect most players would either check/call or check fold the river since your opponent will never call with a worse hand.

Is durrrrrs river lead for value because he can't reasonably expect hero will raise.

Interesting to look at the deep level of thinking at these levels. Does hero's bet sizing on the river leak info about his hand strength.


hope you enjoyed disecting this one.