Live Sat to Killarney

[Wombatman]

Just got moved to final two tables. Second hand at table. 9 handed.

Blinds 500-1000. 20 min blinds.

UTG Limps. No info. bar that he is a reg with a good history of results.

I look down at KQ UTG+1 with a stack of 15k. Blinds up in 2min.

?

[TommyGunne]

I dunno. Against some regs this is always really strong, and they will never fold, but against some you always get through, but then again there is a full table behind you. I guess I just fold this and move on.

[Caf]

Whats the average? How far is the bubble?

Think it's a fold, and prob a fold without the utg limper tbh. Hard to see a winning player limping here to fold to a shove.

[sligoboi]

Meh with KQ if you get called the best you can hope for is a race. There is 9 people still to act behind due to the limp so I'd just fold and look for a spot where it has to get through fewer people even if the hand may have to be weaker than KQ

[Wombatman]

Whats the average? How far is the bubble?

Think it's a fold, and prob a fold without the utg limper tbh. Hard to see a winning player limping here to fold to a shove.

Average was about 25k. Only two or three getting ticket\paid.

[AndyFatBastard]

Easy fold here in a satellite.

[Caf]

Average was about 25k. Only two or three getting ticket\paid.

I'd let the blinds pass by me and, like sligboi said, get the chips in late position if it's folded around. Might not have as strong a hand as KQ but more chance of winning an uncontested pot. Defo better spots to use your stack than this imo.

[Moneymaker]

Insta-muck.

[Wombatman]

Insta-muck.

Really? Insta? You are going to be in the blinds in two hands which will have gone up to 750-1500. At that point you will have sub 10 bb's.

What hands are you playing here?

[Moneymaker]

Really? Insta? You are going to be in the blinds in two hands which will have gone up to 750-1500. At that point you will have sub 10 bb's.

What hands are you playing here?

Didn't see that the blinds go up in 2 mins. I'd be more likely to shove then. Dunno if I would or not, especially in a sat.

You've described UTG as good, chances are he's limping a decent hand here. Had he been doing a lot of limping?

I probably shove 77+, suited Aces and stuff like that. You're only really is massive trouble when you go under 8bbs. You can wait another round, shove your button with ATC, shove your SB, CO, whenever you get a chance in LP basically.

[DAMO72]

If you shove now you will only get called by a hand that beats you . Fold now and wait for a better spot , weaker holdings in late position will work better in this spot.

[Wombatman]

Didn't see that the blinds go up in 2 mins. I'd be more likely to shove then. Dunno if I would or not, especially in a sat.

You've described UTG as good, chances are he's limping a decent hand here. Had he been doing a lot of limping?

I probably shove 77+, suited Aces and stuff like that. You're only really is massive trouble when you go under 8bbs. You can wait another round, shove your button with ATC, shove your SB, CO, whenever you get a chance in LP basically.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,815,042,240 games 2.438 secs 744,480,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.014% 31.13% 01.88% 565085688 34135550.00 { KQs, KQo }
Hand 1: 66.986% 65.11% 01.88% 1181685452 34135550.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

479,445,120 games 0.719 secs 666,822,141 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.892% 30.81% 01.08% 147740712 5162820.00 { A6s }
Hand 1: 68.108% 67.03% 01.08% 321378768 5162820.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

842,453,568 games 1.000 secs 842,453,568 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.842% 35.62% 00.22% 300079752 1874562.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 64.158% 63.94% 00.22% 538624692 1874562.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }

[TommyGunne]

As wombatman pointed out, shoving Axs and not shoving KQ makes no sense. Think the calling ranges are a little too loose cos we're shoving 15bb UTG+1 over an UTG limp though.

On a slightly related aside, I have an incredibly severe problem with the reasoning that we should shove lighter cos blinds are going up soon. I think that flies in the face of GTO play. I think we should just treat it as one hand at this level, and that the blinds are shortly going up should be inconsequential. I think it matters more if we are shorter, ie less than 10bb, but with 15bb, I don't think shoving -EV hands just cos the blinds are going to go up makes sense. If we're super short then we obv have to take the least -EV path, but I don't think taking -EV paths when you're 15bb deep is sensible, and think its a little silly tbh.

[Wombatman]

As wombatman pointed out, shoving Axs and not shoving KQ makes no sense. Think the calling ranges are a little too loose cos we're shoving 15bb UTG+1 over an UTG limp though.

On a slightly related aside, I have an incredibly severe problem with the reasoning that we should shove lighter cos blinds are going up soon. I think that flies in the face of GTO play. I think we should just treat it as one hand at this level, and that the blinds are shortly going up should be inconsequential. I think it matters more if we are shorter, ie less than 10bb, but with 15bb, I don't think shoving -EV hands just cos the blinds are going to go up makes sense. If we're super short then we obv have to take the least -EV path, but I don't think taking -EV paths when you're 15bb deep is sensible, and think its a little silly tbh.

A little silly. Me? Why do you hurt my feelings so Tommy.

With all due respect though I think you are talking through your hole on this one. Your stack relative to your blinds obv influences the playability of hands. It is agreed that 9 handed live you get to see about 30 hands an hour. So with twenty min blinds I get to see 10 hands per level. Not much of a opportunity to see better cards later.

I accept the argument that we a better off waiting to steal from late position, but it was the utg limp that made up my mind for me. People fear AA or KK here but more often that not live in this spot its a baby pair, ace rag suited of something like JTs that UTG has.

Pushing now with our 15bb stake and UTG limper narrows the calling range which is actually good for us. It means we take down the 2.5k uncontested more of the time.

Nine handed the chances we will find ourselves up against 99 or better (calling range) are 4\1.

So when uncalled we get 10k.
Called we are - 10.5k in the long run.

-EV but tight.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,589,018,112 games 2.407 secs 660,165,397 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.004% 68.60% 00.40% 1090128404 6358070.00 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 30.996% 30.60% 00.40% 486173568 6358070.00 { KQs, KQo }

[connie147]

UTGs' stacksize is important here, You say he's a good player. With the amount of info given already, it looks like a clear fold to me. Good players have a habit of limping big hands in ep, hoping that one of the short stacks fancies their chances if picking up the limp and blinds. I cant see a hand he's limped with that your beating, so really, your hoping 1) he folds to your shove and 2)nobody else wakes up with a hand. He should know (if he's as good as you say) that ye're approaching the time of the tourney when the shoving becomes regular from the shortish stacks, so I'd have to give him credit for a hand that he's not intending to fold to a shortstack push.

I can see and agree with TG's view on it. You can open shove atc in late position in the next orbit with much more chance of success. Ave stack atm is 25bb, and in 2 mins,the ave will be 16bb, so you wont be called light.

[scouser in dub]

18 people left 3 getting paid average stack is 25k means the average stack when the bubble bursts is going to be 150k. I may just punt, we have blockers to the big pairs people hate calling off the mid pairs and the blinds going up just means we are going to start losing FE against bigger stacks.

The stack of the limper is important and any notion of how he's been playing. I would be more than willing to jam this if I had seen him limp fold