Originally posted by TheJiggaman
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.fr hand from The Classico last Sunday, villain hadn't really gotten out of line but no real reads.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 10 Tournament, 175/350 Blinds 40 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
saw flop | saw showdown
UTG+1 (t6325)
MP1 (t19242)
Hero (MP2) (t26965)
MP3 (t26364)
CO (t6884)
Button (t9880)
SB (t5864)
BB (t42666)
UTG (t11897)
Hero's M: 30.47
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
3 folds, Hero bets t759, 4 folds, BB calls t409
Flop: (t2053) 2, 8, 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t1095, BB calls t1095
Turn: (t4243) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t2217, BB calls t2217
River: (t8677) 10 (2 players)
BB bets t7890,
Hero?
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Originally posted by Caf View Post.fr hand from The Classico last Sunday, villain hadn't really gotten out of line but no real reads.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 10 Tournament, 175/350 Blinds 40 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
saw flop | saw showdown
UTG+1 (t6325)
MP1 (t19242)
Hero (MP2) (t26965)
MP3 (t26364)
CO (t6884)
Button (t9880)
SB (t5864)
BB (t42666)
UTG (t11897)
Hero's M: 30.47
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
3 folds, Hero bets t759, 4 folds, BB calls t409
Flop: (t2053) 2, 8, 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t1095, BB calls t1095
Turn: (t4243) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t2217, BB calls t2217
River: (t8677) 10 (2 players)
BB bets t7890,
Hero?
Clicking the call button repeatedly on there regardless of your cards would probably turn a profit in the €10 games.Last edited by peterswellman; 08-01-13, 22:13.
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Here's one from early stages of a turbo sat on stars, from memory.
Only the 2nd hand, stacks are 75bb effective(1.5k)
UTG open for 50, MP calls, Button calls, hero call from the BB with AK
Flop(210): A,7,5
Check, UTG bets 80. and everyone calls
Turn(530): 6
Check, UTG check, MP bets 580, Button calls...
Hero?
No reads, fwiw button is a supernova(does that actually mean anything to anyone?)
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Hand 1 it's pretty hard for villain to have a hand we beat after this line on this runout. He's not likely double rev-floating overs or small PPs just to bomb perfect rivers so I expect FH/Tx/J9/96s is a huge part of his range making a call pretty unrpofitable.
Hand 2 is a pretty clear fold as played, our TP is rarely good if a reg is calling pot overbet ott. Would probably 3b/gii pre with the two callers in a turbo with these stacks (75bb now, but structures make your stack disappear quite fast)."c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"
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Originally posted by Dice75 View PostQQ from a recent hand on Stars.
Blinds 25/50 stacks all c3/4k.
MP makes it 125. Button goes 250. (no real info on either).
I flat 250 with JJ in SB?
BB makes it 550 ( has already 4bet jammed 77 in a 3 way pot and held v AK)
Folded back to me?
Thoughts?
I would either jam all in or fold. Hate the thought of limp calling twice pre flop oop... The flop will not help our read of player unless we ping J.... What would our strategy post flop b if board is dry and he lead again as we would expect him to?No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.
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Originally posted by Dice75 View PostQQ from a recent hand on Stars.
Blinds 25/50 stacks all c3/4k.
MP makes it 125. Button goes 250. (no real info on either).
I flat 250 with JJ in SB?
BB makes it 550 ( has already 4bet jammed 77 in a 3 way pot and held v AK)
Folded back to me?
Thoughts?Looking for full or part time poker and betting writers. PM if interested.
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Originally posted by Winning! View PostHand 2 is a pretty clear fold as played, our TP is rarely good if a reg is calling pot overbet ott. Would probably 3b/gii pre with the two callers in a turbo with these stacks (75bb now, but structures make your stack disappear quite fast).
Originally posted by Dice75 View PostQQ from a recent hand on Stars.
Blinds 25/50 stacks all c3/4k.
MP makes it 125. Button goes 250. (no real info on either).
I flat 250 with JJ in SB?
BB makes it 550 ( has already 4bet jammed 77 in a 3 way pot and held v AK)
Folded back to me?
Thoughts?
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Quick general spot here.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
saw flop
Hero (SB) (t23801)
BB (t21430)
UTG (t3631)
MP (t16791)
CO (t16453)
Button (t30948)
Hero's M: 26.45
Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9
4 folds, Hero bets t1215, BB raises to t3200, Hero ????
He had been 3 betting a lot he was like 31/24/17 over 40 or so hands and pretty aggro post flop but hadn't really shown down much. We didn't have a huge amount of history. i had given him a walk every time it folded to me in the sb. Which i think was twice both pre ante.
Stacks feel awkward. Too much to 4bet jam. I think we're crushed by most 5 bet ranges. Calling is a bit meh as we're going to c/f a tonne of boards and hate life on everything without a 9 if he bets more than 1 street. Not really sure if he'll ever 5 bet jam small to mid pairs.
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Guest
Originally posted by GaryT View PostQuick general spot here.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
saw flop
Hero (SB) (t23801)
BB (t21430)
UTG (t3631)
MP (t16791)
CO (t16453)
Button (t30948)
Hero's M: 26.45
Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9
4 folds, Hero bets t1215, BB raises to t3200, Hero ????
He had been 3 betting a lot he was like 31/24/17 over 40 or so hands and pretty aggro post flop but hadn't really shown down much. We didn't have a huge amount of history. i had given him a walk every time it folded to me in the sb. Which i think was twice both pre ante.
Stacks feel awkward. Too much to 4bet jam. I think we're crushed by most 5 bet ranges. Calling is a bit meh as we're going to c/f a tonne of boards and hate life on everything without a 9 if he bets more than 1 street. Not really sure if he'll ever 5 bet jam small to mid pairs.
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Originally posted by brady23 View PostGiven the relatively small sample it is difficult but I think I'm definitely 4 bet inducing here, hand is way too strong bvb against an aggro player, 4 bet smallish and snap it I think
99 feels like the top of my range bvb and would def be inducing. I dunno if his 5-bet range has you crushed tbh given how light people get stacks in these days in LP.
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How small do people 4-bet here though? I reckon I make mine 7500-8000 being OOP and I think it still allows villian to think they have fold equity but it's big enough to really discourage flats given were out of position this usually sucks.
EDIT- actually scratch that I was looking at our stack and not the villains. 6500-7000 for me.Last edited by peterswellman; 09-01-13, 23:53.
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Originally posted by brady23 View PostGiven the relatively small sample it is difficult but I think I'm definitely 4 bet inducing here, hand is way too strong bvb against an aggro player, 4 bet smallish and snap it I think
Presume induce 88 also? What about 77 and 66? Flat, fold or 4bet/f? Then just fold 22-55 against most people right?
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Originally posted by peterswellman View PostHow small do people 4-bet here though? I reckon I make mine 7500-8000 being OOP and I think it still allows villian to think they have fold equity but it's big enough to really discourage flats given were out of position this usually sucks.
EDIT- actually scratch that I was looking at our stack and not the villains. 6500-7000 for me.
Yeah thats exactly the sizing I was thinking if i was to 4bet anything . Around 6500.
What about the middle to small pairs here? Pretty much as I asked above to Brady.
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Guest
Against a villain like this the smaller 4 bet is best imo, because according to the stats you gave I presume their tendencies are more focused on preflop aggression, I understand the fear of being flatted and bein forced to play OOP against an aggro player can be daunting but is definitely profitable to 4 bet get it in here with 99
The smaller pairs I agree are difficult to play here but flatting OOP is only profitable with QQ-AA, then 66-JJ is a value 4 betting range while 22-55 would be a 4bet/6 bet bluffing range or I'd just fold to the 3bet given stack sizes!
Thats just generally what I think in this spot but definitely open to opinions on it!
Just thought about my value range and maybe 66 is a little light but 77 is a value hand for.me and 66 is so borderline!!Last edited by Guest; 10-01-13, 00:24.
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I've another 1 similar to the thread I posted the other day..
Except in this hand villan is French and horrendous. He hasn't actually done anything especially bad yet but it was obvious he was going to be bad if you know what I mean.
7th hand of a 4 max tourney. I've gotten totally slapped in the face by the deck so I've played 6 of them. I haven't been to showdown yet. Felt like I hero folded 2nd pair the hand before this. I think pre should be like 950 because he's never folding anything pre. Which is something I changed soon after.
So this rivers a std fold right? It feels like he always has it. I'm not sure what he has or how he has but it's 1 of them spots that we're never good right?
Winamax - €45+€5|50/100 NL (4 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
Robinho3101 (BTN): 14,986.00
mimi78280 (SB): 20,200.00
spastastic (BB): 20,005.00
stunmymike13 (UTG): 24,809.00
mimi78280 posts SB 50.00, spastastic posts BB 100.00
Pre Flop: (150.00) spastastic has Q Q
fold, fold, mimi78280 raises to 250.00, spastastic raises to 709.00, mimi78280 calls 459.00
Flop: (1418.00, 2 players) 8 4 7
mimi78280 checks, spastastic bets 997.00, mimi78280 calls 997.00
Turn: (3412.00, 2 players) 8
mimi78280 checks, spastastic bets 2,199.00, mimi78280 calls 2,199.00
River: (7810.00, 2 players) J
mimi78280 bets 5,207.00, .....
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Originally posted by Dice75 View PostQuick spot from last night.
FT - all in the money (9 handed).
Realistically looking for a top 2 spot.
Ave stack 90k
Blinds 2/4k (no antes)
UTG (45k) opens to 10k
Folded to button (180k) who makes it 22k.
SB dwells & shoves for 48k.
I'm in BB (120k) & look at JJ?
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Originally posted by GaryT View PostSnap fold. It's not really close either.Can't see any of them being light here.Originally posted by Hectorjelly View PostYeah definitely fold. Tough decision if sb folds (although I prob don't fold), once sb gets involved his range is extremely tight and the other players will only call if you are drawing to 2 outs.
Folded, but some of the comments at the table had me wondering.
OR had AK, button had 99 & SB had 44.
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Originally posted by Dice75 View PostYeah, when SB shipped I hadn't looked but thought AA/KK snap QQ good think & ofc look down at JJ.
Folded, but some of the comments at the table had me wondering.
OR had AK, button had 99 & SB had 44.
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Anyone calling here?
Not long at the table so only 10 hands on each but they both seem fishy playing 57/29 and 43/0. Never folding to one shove, but it's hardly ever profitable calling it off here v 2 players?
Prima No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 400/800 Blinds (9 handed) - Prima Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
UTG+1 (t51254)
MP1 (t23250)
Hero (MP2) (t25536.25)
MP3 (t33805)
CO (t23045)
Button (t10880)
SB (t22230)
BB (t46485)
UTG (t12970)
Hero's M: 21.28
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t800, 1 fold, Hero bets t2555, 3 folds, SB calls t2155, BB calls t1755, UTG+1 calls t1755
Flop: (t10220) 9, J, 7 (4 players)
SB bets t19595, BB calls t19595, 1 fold, Hero ??
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostAnyone calling here?
Not long at the table so only 10 hands on each but they both seem fishy playing 57/29 and 43/0. Never folding to one shove, but it's hardly ever profitable calling it off here v 2 players?
Prima No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 400/800 Blinds (9 handed) - Prima Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
UTG+1 (t51254)
MP1 (t23250)
Hero (MP2) (t25536.25)
MP3 (t33805)
CO (t23045)
Button (t10880)
SB (t22230)
BB (t46485)
UTG (t12970)
Hero's M: 21.28
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t800, 1 fold, Hero bets t2555, 3 folds, SB calls t2155, BB calls t1755, UTG+1 calls t1755
Flop: (t10220) 9, J, 7 (4 players)
SB bets t19595, BB calls t19595, 1 fold, Hero ??
A massive over bet by SB on the flop is a scared set or a hopeful F/D, probably the former. The BB calling makes him the nuts or NFD.
I sigh fold like a true nit
Edit - I'll post details of my next MTT cazsh soon (by the end of the month)One of these days I am either going to quit poker or learn how to play the damn game
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Originally posted by 40something View PostUTG/UTG+1 callers often have monster pairs hoping to repop any LP raisers or they have small/mid pps and are hoping to hit their 7/1 set on the flop.
A massive over bet by SB on the flop is a scared set or a hopeful F/D, probably the former. The BB calling makes him the nuts or NFD.
I sigh fold like a true nit
Edit - I'll post details of my next MTT cazsh soon (by the end of the month)Go big or go homeless.
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Spot from Deepstack (at my table - not involved, just found it interesting)
Blinds 600/1200/100
UTG+1 (Hero) open to 2600 with JJ
I would consider him to be one of the top Irish players. Has stack up to 60k with a decent edge on the table and average at 54k.
Folded to BB who flat calls. BB is a Belgian playing 150k having amassed his stack with some dubious plays, would not consider him decent but dangerous due to unpredictable/gambley nature.
Flop is 457
BB leads for 5.1k (he had done this a lot in raised pots, even multi-way).
Hero?Last edited by Dice75; 02-02-13, 11:57.
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Originally posted by Dice75 View PostSpot from Deepstack (at my table - not involved, just found it interesting)
Blinds 600/1200/100
UTG+1 (Hero) open to 2600 with JJ
I would consider him to be one of the top Irish players. Has stack up to 60k with a decent edge on the table and average at 54k.
Folded to BB who flat calls. BB is a Belgian playing 150k having amassed his stack with some dubious plays, would not consider him decent but dangerous due to unpredictable/gambley nature.
Flop is 457
BB leads for 5.1k (he had done this a lot in raised pots, even multi-way).
Hero?Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post^^ I flat the 5k and try to get to showdown cheaply.
Hero?
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Originally posted by Dice75 View PostHero makes it 15k, BB shoves.
Hero?Originally posted by Dice75 View Post....unpredictable/gambley nature...
BB leads for 5.1k (he had done this a lot in raised pots, even multi-way).
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Originally posted by BobSloane View PostHas to call now? He's priced in against 44-77,NFDs. This guy sounds like he can be wider than thatOriginally posted by AndyFatBastard View PostYeah time to play Villain Range Roullette. Close your eyes and call.
He does have c33% of his stack invested.
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Line check with QJs from SB here. 4 left in the 10r 10k. $1k for 4th and $2600 for 1st.
Guys stats are VPIP/PFR 27/23
Fold to steal 73%
He's been playing ABCish. Ship ok?
Edit - obv you can see the hands and i ran into KK because i shipped, but a couple of people said its too much to shipLast edited by Flushdraw; 12-02-13, 01:22.
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostThat's exactly why i said i didn't want to raise because i'm letting him shove Kx, weaker hands etc on me and i don't want to raise fold. Open folding is shit, so shoving is the only option i think.
Open fold is a no-no and wouldn't like a to raise-fold either. It's a little bit of an overshove I suppose definately dont hate it though.
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostThat's exactly why i said i didn't want to raise because i'm letting him shove Kx, weaker hands etc on me and i don't want to raise fold. Open folding is shit, so shoving is the only option i think.
Limping is much better than any other option IMO. I would say Limp>>R/F>>>Limp/shove>>>shove>>>>>fold
Really tired will post properly in the morning with reasoning etc
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3 different river spots from cash game.$2/5/10 (compulsory straddle at this table)... Heros image is laggy enough but not crazy. Hero is a bit rusty also so don't know if I'm completely out of touch with live cash games..still made a profit but got a lot of premium hands...Table as a whole is pretty soft but has 1 or 2 good players.
11st revolution of table, no reads on villain, Hero is UTG (Straddle)( & playing $700), Villain is the Button.
Folded around to button, villain makes it 30, SB calls, BB folds, & I call with A 10
FLOP:
8x J 10x
SB checks, I check, Villain bets 70, SB folds and I call
TURN:
3
Villain checks & I check
RIVER:
A
Villain takes an age and bets $200, Hero???
I can't make a case for folding here but maybe someone else can?? Obviously I'm never raising...
2Next hand is about an hour or so into session. Villain is probably worst player at table. 4x UTG+1 and called all in 30+BB with 66 vs my QQ hand previous, Villain has just reloaded ($500) Hero is BB and has him covered.
Villain raises to $20, Button, SB, Hero 109 and Straddle call
FLOP
10 10 6
SB checks, Hero bets 65, Straddle folds, Villain calls, Button & SB fold
TURN
A
Hero checks & Villain checks
RIVER
9
Hero???
Does Hero check here to induce bet and then shove/bet? Do we insta snap is villain shoves?
How much do we bet here if we decide to bet? What range is villain calling with here? Hows my line? Does anyone bet turn?
3Playing 6 handed now, no straddle now... most of the fish are gone so table is not as loosey goosey, Villain is pretty good imo. Has been 3 betting a lot and squeezing.Villain is SB and Hero is BB. Hero & SB both playing just over 2k
Folded around to Button who makes it 25, SB makes it $60, Hero calls with 9x 9x, Button calls
FLOP
8x 8 x 10 x
SB bets 130, Hero calls, Button folds
TURN
3x
SB checks, Hero bets 220, SB calls
RIVER
10x
SB bets 400, Hero???
Really really confused about this hand, is my line bad? As played do we ever call? Anyone figure out his range?Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers
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Don't play MTTs much, but if he is super ABC i think, small raise and fold is fine. Assuming he plays ABC he won't be reshoving light, so his shoving range will be close to his calling range when we open ship.
PM:
1. Call, closer to shove than a fold.
2. I'd bet turn. Probs crai river as played.
3. Weird spot, id probably fold as he has played his hand like a ten might.Looking for full or part time poker and betting writers. PM if interested.
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Guest
Recent leak in my game I was told was shoving too many BBs with my whole range from various positions, personally I think a shove of this size is for the most part never really a nutted hand and the play looks easily exploitable and can be called lighter
2. If you do merge your whole range and you open shove your nutted hands because you feel your opponent has the ability to call you light, he still have a very narrow range to call and you fold out alot of hands that you can get value from post flop.
I dont think a limp is good if he has a high fold to steal % not opening with a raise is crazy
I hate folding here if we open as well especially because such a small range of hands gives us very little equity but with this guy to our left, we will likely recoup our 2-2.5bb investment within a couple of rounds
Sorry didnt realise how far I was behind just noticed, this is a response to FD's QhJhLast edited by Guest; 12-02-13, 10:20.
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Originally posted by brady23 View PostRecent leak in my game I was told was shoving too many BBs with my whole range from various positions, personally I think a shove of this size is for the most part never really a nutted hand and the play looks easily exploitable and can be called lighter
2. If you do merge your whole range and you open shove your nutted hands because you feel your opponent has the ability to call you light, he still have a very narrow range to call and you fold out alot of hands that you can get value from post flop.
I dont think a limp is good if he has a high fold to steal % not opening with a raise is crazy
I hate folding here if we open as well especially because such a small range of hands gives us very little equity but with this guy to our left, we will likely recoup our 2-2.5bb investment within a couple of rounds
Sorry didnt realise how far I was behind just noticed, this is a response to FD's QhJh
If we raise he's not going to call very often being 20bb effective so we are going to get shoved on quite a lot. Can't imagine it's profitable to raise call though.
Limping just seems so much better. Most people aren't going to jam over it being 20bbs deep. I'd also imagine he'd check quite a lot of hands he would shove if we raised.
He seems to be quite ABC so we have a decent chance to win the pot postflop. I'd say limping then leading for like 40k on every flop when he checks pre would be good against an ABC player like this.
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Guest
Originally posted by GaryT View PostDont quite understand the bolded part. Are you saying you raise then call a shove?
If we raise he's not going to call very often being 20bb effective so we are going to get shoved on quite a lot. Can't imagine it's profitable to raise call though.
Limping just seems so much better. Most people aren't going to jam over it being 20bbs deep. I'd also imagine he'd check quite a lot of hands he would shove if we raised.
He seems to be quite ABC so we have a decent chance to win the pot postflop. I'd say limping then leading for like 40k on every flop when he checks pre would be good against an ABC player like this.
His fold to steal is so high, I cant see us in great shape even if we would have decent equity alot of the time. Another thing just to mention is that because the table is short handed his fold to steal % is probably higher here than it actually is, obviously depending on the sample but prob not a true reflection, so his shoving range can be a bit wider so QJ would be even stronger vs his range but still not good enough to call.
I dont think shoving is really bad just not efficient and the most optimal way to play. I cant think of any scenario where limping is best!!
Think about it this way if we assume his fold to steal is actually less like 60%
So we raise to 2.5bb so 60k so we are investing 48k to win 93.6k so we need that to work 51% of the time to be profitable his adjusted fold to steal is 60% so it's still profitable to raise!!
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Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostLine check with QJs from SB here. 4 left in the 10r 10k. $1k for 4th and $2600 for 1st.
Guys stats are VPIP/PFR 27/23
Fold to steal 73%
He's been playing ABCish. Ship ok?
Reshoves with: 22+,A2s+,K4s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A2o+,K7o+,Q9o +,JTo
Calls shove with: 44+,A2s+,K7s+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo
The results show that regardless of what we do here we can't make a mistake. But I conclude that the following actions all show a profit as follows:
Raise Fold: +10766.40 chips
Raise Call: +22930.46 chips
Shove: +20480.38 chips
So based on these ranges we can see that Raise Call would be the most optimal line here. Of course this changes quite considerably when you alter the opps ranges (though I dont believe I'm a million miles away). If you would like to plug some different ranges then let me know.
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Guest
Originally posted by tomsom87 View PostI done some math here. I have made the following assumptions about the villain:
Reshoves with: 22+,A2s+,K4s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A2o+,K7o+,Q9o +,JTo
Calls shove with: 44+,A2s+,K7s+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo
The results show that regardless of what we do here we can't make a mistake. But I conclude that the following actions all show a profit as follows:
Raise Fold: +10766.40 chips
Raise Call: +22930.46 chips
Shove: +20480.38 chips
So based on these ranges we can see that Raise Call would be the most optimal line here. Of course this changes quite considerably when you alter the opps ranges (though I dont believe I'm a million miles away). If you would like to plug some different ranges then let me know.
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Originally posted by brady23 View PostPersonally I think those ranges are extremely wide considering he folds to steal 73% and he plays ABC, calling ranges are way too wide as well imo
I suspect he just hasn't been caught light yet.Last edited by tomsom87; 12-02-13, 13:41.
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Guest
Originally posted by tomsom87 View PostWell if he's playing 27/23 and looking at the HUD PF3B is 7% then I dont expect him to be that tight. I don't know what the sample of hands are but those stats aren't consistant with someone playing really tight ABC. Of course this might only be a really small sample and he may have picked up some hands but someone playing over 1 in 4 hands isn't playing really tight.
I suspect he just hasn't been caught light yet.
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Guest
Originally posted by tomsom87 View PostJust to add as well. It defo isn't too much to open ship. Also, your image is kind of important because if he's a capable player he will be adjusting to you. So if you have played 10/9/3 all the final table then that will alter his reshoving range massively.
I think this is a simple hand to assess, if his fold to steal % is 73% and by opening 2.5x you must only win 51% to profit then opening 2.5x is perfectly fine.
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Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post@FD: Perfect hand to flat and exploit villain's minraise.
Originally posted by GaryT View PostDont quite understand the bolded part. Are you saying you raise then call a shove?
If we raise he's not going to call very often being 20bb effective so we are going to get shoved on quite a lot. Can't imagine it's profitable to raise call though.
Limping just seems so much better. Most people aren't going to jam over it being 20bbs deep. I'd also imagine he'd check quite a lot of hands he would shove if we raised.
He seems to be quite ABC so we have a decent chance to win the pot postflop. I'd say limping then leading for like 40k on every flop when he checks pre would be good against an ABC player like this.
Originally posted by tomsom87 View PostI done some math here. I have made the following assumptions about the villain:
Reshoves with: 22+,A2s+,K4s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A2o+,K7o+,Q9o +,JTo
Calls shove with: 44+,A2s+,K7s+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo
The results show that regardless of what we do here we can't make a mistake. But I conclude that the following actions all show a profit as follows:
Raise Fold: +10766.40 chips
Raise Call: +22930.46 chips
Shove: +20480.38 chips
So based on these ranges we can see that Raise Call would be the most optimal line here. Of course this changes quite considerably when you alter the opps ranges (though I dont believe I'm a million miles away). If you would like to plug some different ranges then let me know.Originally posted by brady23 View PostPersonally I think those ranges are extremely wide considering he folds to steal 73% and he plays ABC, calling ranges are way too wide as well imo
I've only 83 hands on the guy and i can't remember anything he done out of the ordinary. I was playing 5/6 games at the same time and just remember him playing position and not calling much OOP. He has no cbet stats, so no raise he made went to a flop. FWIW, here's his FtoSteal stats and he's 86% from the BB but it's a relatively small sample. The other box is his 3bet stats
Originally posted by tomsom87 View PostJust to add as well. It defo isn't too much to open ship. Also, your image is kind of important because if he's a capable player he will be adjusting to you. So if you have played 10/9/3 all the final table then that will alter his reshoving range massively.
Cheers for the comments everyone
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Tomsom87, Surely at this stage of the game we have to consider our "$ev" more so than chip ev? Raise calling is the most plus cEV move (according to your ranges) but I'd imagine that leads to us busting the tournament more times than the other plays also.
Personally, I was railing Tony at the time and I thought the shove was fine. Eventhough his fold to steal is pretty high, this situation we are now 4 handed blind on blind with 20bb effective. I think a lot of players even the most ABC will pick up the aggression here. I felt raise folding would be far too exploitable for that reason and raise calling just meant you are inducing hands you want to fold out shoving on you, so I don't like calling my tourney off here with Q high.
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That doesn't look like a good spot to limp imo but I can't see any valid reasoning posted as to why it's such a sweet spot for a limp. Why would you give villain a chance to check back and see a flop for free when a raise/shove picks it up there a lot? He has 18bb behind, the idea that he min raises and folds to a shove from that stack just sounds flawed/backwards and would just be a total spew. People would tend to shove/fold most of their range there and hope to pick up the 58k in the middle. I would think the majority of people only 2-3x over a limp there with the top of their range.
It's a shove for me, Flushdraw, but I think you're happy enough with doing that. It's def not too much to shove anyway.
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Originally posted by tomsom87 View PostI done some math here. I have made the following assumptions about the villain:
Reshoves with: 22+,A2s+,K4s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A2o+,K7o+,Q9o +,JTo
Calls shove with: 44+,A2s+,K7s+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo
The results show that regardless of what we do here we can't make a mistake. But I conclude that the following actions all show a profit as follows:
Raise Fold: +10766.40 chips
Raise Call: +22930.46 chips
Shove: +20480.38 chips
So based on these ranges we can see that Raise Call would be the most optimal line here. Of course this changes quite considerably when you alter the opps ranges (though I dont believe I'm a million miles away). If you would like to plug some different ranges then let me know.
Originally posted by Flushdraw View PostI'm SB, he hasn't minraised and probably shown no inclination to.
Yeah i'm first to act. Flop was 732r as it happens so he might just flat my flop lead and turned paired the 7 so i probably shut down. If i limp and he raises, i guess i shove with the QJs at the time.
Agree wtih Brady here. There's no way he's calling a shove with K7, QJ or maybe not even A2. If i thought he was calling light, i don't shove the QJ. I think i can get him to fold better hands than me, and he might not even call if off with a small pair.
I've only 83 hands on the guy and i can't remember anything he done out of the ordinary. I was playing 5/6 games at the same time and just remember him playing position and not calling much OOP. He has no cbet stats, so no raise he made went to a flop. FWIW, here's his FtoSteal stats and he's 86% from the BB but it's a relatively small sample. The other box is his 3bet stats
I can't check my stats for that FT but i raised and 3bet uncontested quite a lot when it was 6-10 handed so had a stack so played pretty tight when it got short handed so i'd imagine i'd be seen as pretty TAG and QJ would be the absolute bottom of my shoving range there. This is roughly the last 20 mins of the table so i didn't get out of line much at all
Cheers for the comments everyone
Any reads on how he played a 10-25bb stack? Like was he raise folding off 15bbs? Open shoving up to 20bbs?
I think that would make quite a big difference. If he was shoving >15bbs then I'd say limping is probably bad.
I think there's a big difference between fold to steal and fold to sb steal. Which I doubt you have any sort of sample on
Originally posted by BrianN View PostTomsom87, Surely at this stage of the game we have to consider our "$ev" more so than chip ev? Raise calling is the most plus cEV move (according to your ranges) but I'd imagine that leads to us busting the tournament more times than the other plays also.
Personally, I was railing Tony at the time and I thought the shove was fine. Eventhough his fold to steal is pretty high, this situation we are now 4 handed blind on blind with 20bb effective. I think a lot of players even the most ABC will pick up the aggression here. I felt raise folding would be far too exploitable for that reason and raise calling just meant you are inducing hands you want to fold out shoving on you, so I don't like calling my tourney off here with Q high.
Originally posted by Caf View PostThat doesn't look like a good spot to limp imo but I can't see any valid reasoning posted as to why it's such a sweet spot for a limp. Why would you give villain a chance to check back and see a flop for free when a raise/shove picks it up there a lot? He has 18bb behind, the idea that he min raises and folds to a shove from that stack just sounds flawed/backwards and would just be a total spew. People would tend to shove/fold most of their range there and hope to pick up the 58k in the middle. I would think the majority of people only 2-3x over a limp there with the top of their range.
It's a shove for me, Flushdraw, but I think you're happy enough with doing that. It's def not too much to shove anyway.
I don't like shoving over 20bbs. While it might be +cEV in a lot of spots I think there's nearly always more +ev spots. I'd actually agree with you now that I noticed his stacksize.
I think with just over 20bb+ a lot of people would raise probably around 3x then fold to shove.
Would you think limping is good if it's say 25bb effective?
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Originally posted by GaryT View PostI actually just realised from your post that we have him covered so 18bbs effective instead of the 20+ I was thinking.
I don't like shoving over 20bbs. While it might be +cEV in a lot of spots I think there's nearly always more +ev spots. I'd actually agree with you now that I noticed his stacksize.
I think with just over 20bb+ a lot of people would raise probably around 3x then fold to shove.
Would you think limping is good if it's say 25bb effective?
There's def a case for it with different stacks but maybe not as much with two shorties/shallow stacks, and obv reads will make up a lot of the decision.
I remember posting a FT spot a good while ago and blaaaaaah bringing up about limp/shoving:
(stacks are different but it's the only time I've seen it discussed on here)
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Curious as to what others do here.
FT 6 left.
Blnds 2k/4k/No Antes
Hero in BB with 68k (17bbs) behind after posting BB.
Had shoved last orbit in BB after 3 limpers & showed 104s.
Rest of table pretty ABC but SB is decent player.
One other stack about the same, rest all 100-160k.
Folded to SB playing 140k who raises to 9k.
Look down at KQo
Hero?Last edited by Dice75; 08-03-13, 20:29.
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I would shove here unless he has been very quiet and not raised much from late position.
Your ahead of a large portion of a decent players range here plus your getting the fold quite a bit.
and can find yourself getting called with worse after showing your bag of shite earlierLast edited by eamonhonda; 08-03-13, 20:55.airport, lol
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