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it should be around, 40-45. Like if he bets say 5 into 7, it'll be 7x + (1-x)-5 = 0 so 5/12 which is around 41%, that'll vary obv if he's betting 6 into 8 or 7 into 9 etc, but it'll be roughly similar. It only needs to work 40% of the time so we have to defend 60%. Also, at low stakes people prob cbet too much so you can prob defend even more.
Atm you are exploitable as villain can cbet ATC profitably. Raising flops (esp in position) is soooo hard to play vs. and generally not done enough. I dont raise nearly enough flops but I'm increasing it gradually. I reckon if you try to force the stat staright off the bat, you will be busto by Wednesday
Is it wrong to pretty much never call a 3bet 100bbs deep?
Also, twice tonight, I opened JJ in MP/CO and was 3bet by a ~100bb BTN with 3bet stat of 5 and 7 respectably (over 300 hands). I folded both, as I felt I was doing little else other than setmining by calling, and that he's not folding to a 4bet enough to make it worthwhile, especially since JJ isn't doing well vs these guys' 5bet range.
Am I being a spectacular nit? I really struggle when I get 3bet and I'm OOP.
Is it wrong to pretty much never call a 3bet 100bbs deep?
Also, twice tonight, I opened JJ in MP/CO and was 3bet by a ~100bb BTN with 3bet stat of 5 and 7 respectably (over 300 hands). I folded both, as I felt I was doing little else other than setmining by calling, and that he's not folding to a 4bet enough to make it worthwhile, especially since JJ isn't doing well vs these guys' 5bet range.
Am I being a spectacular nit? I really struggle when I get 3bet and I'm OOP.
wow u have tighten up - was looking for something earlier on and found an old board post from theresalwaysone (is he on here?) sayin u were a fish, how times have changed...
wow u have tighten up - was looking for something earlier on and found an old board post from theresalways one (is he on here?) sayin u were a fish, how times have changed...
he's not wrong, I've been stepping on my own toes for years with poker. I am trying to iron out the tilt issues and just look at the overall game/long run a lot more. Basically I'm sick of having monthly graphs that would make excellent MacDonalds signs.
If it wasn't for rakeback and bonuses, I wouldn't even have a roll.
Is it wrong to pretty much never call a 3bet 100bbs deep?
Also, twice tonight, I opened JJ in MP/CO and was 3bet by a ~100bb BTN with 3bet stat of 5 and 7 respectably (over 300 hands). I folded both, as I felt I was doing little else other than setmining by calling, and that he's not folding to a 4bet enough to make it worthwhile, especially since JJ isn't doing well vs these guys' 5bet range.
Am I being a spectacular nit? I really struggle when I get 3bet and I'm OOP.
Yeah, it'd be pretty wrong to never call a 3b 100bb deep. OOP, you shouldn't be calling 3bets much, but IP, especially against aggro enough guys, you need to pretty badly.
As to the hands, it depends on image and what their btn 3b stats are like, but I think folding JJ on the CO and MP to BTN 3bs is probably a leak. Sometimes you can, but if they're at all aggro you can call or 4b. If they're aggro enough, I'd definitely lean towards 4betting though.
Yeah sorry, was meant to say OOP in my initial question. At stakes I'm playing, 5% 3bet stat seems about average, and that was what one of the above players had, and the other 7%.
I'm not happy 4betting to get it in vs their 3bet range (perhaps a serious case of MUTBS?), and I don't think a 4bet gets many folds vs these guys either too.
you have to look at what the 3bet% is by position though. they should be 3betting a ton otb. and you should be 4bet bluffing a reasonable amount with blockers and stuff too.
yup, I'm 4betting there with AJo, KJo and KQo a lot.
I guess its all just selective memory, but as if I needed proof, I just 4bet JJ from MP and called a BTN shove (3bet of 17% over 2k hands). He obviously has KK and I don't suckout.
I just don't see JJ as being a hand that is strong enough to get it all in pre with vs most players at these stakes (I think the hand I mentioned is probably fine, other than the fact we were deep), and its simply because players don't 3bet light, and rarely 5bet anything less than KK+ and AKo+.
Is it wrong to pretty much never call a 3bet 100bbs deep?
Also, twice tonight, I opened JJ in MP/CO and was 3bet by a ~100bb BTN with 3bet stat of 5 and 7 respectably (over 300 hands). I folded both, as I felt I was doing little else other than setmining by calling, and that he's not folding to a 4bet enough to make it worthwhile, especially since JJ isn't doing well vs these guys' 5bet range.
Am I being a spectacular nit? I really struggle when I get 3bet and I'm OOP.
It depends on your stats obviously but for me I'd 4bet and stack off 100% of the time here. If it's a 3bet stat of 5 and 7% overall then it becomes an even easier decision to stack off as there BTN 3bet will probably be 9% or so.
Edit: Just seen your new post. If people are only stacking off with the goods then you're probably to nitty yourself.
That doesn't make any sense. If they are doing it light enough to warrant 4 bet bluffing with Aj etc, then you should be 4 betting Jacks some of the time as well. I would be very reluctant to fold Jacks in either of the two spots you mentioned.
Just some other thoughts on this page, most of the advice is very narrow minded, don't worry about getting a close to GTO optimium stat on one street, worry about the hand as a whole.
That doesn't make any sense. If they are doing it light enough to warrant 4 bet bluffing with Aj etc, then you should be 4 betting Jacks some of the time as well. I would be very reluctant to fold Jacks in either of the two spots you mentioned.
Just some other thoughts on this page, most of the advice is very narrow minded, don't worry about getting a close to GTO optimium stat on one street, worry about the hand as a whole.
The difference though is card removal, when I 4bet AJo I'm folding to a 5bet ~100% of the time. But can I do that with JJ? I don't think so. Players at 20/25nl where I'm playing now aren't adapting much, and we are all pretty much playing ABC poker, I rarely see people 3betting with JJ (and often choose to flat with it myself too).
Again, I'm asking questions here, (albeit maybe not in a direct manner), so please feel free to pick anything I've said apart.
To make it easy, say its 100bbs. You make it 3, he makes it 10, and you make it 25 with JJ. He then shoves for 75bbs more. Its 75 more to you, and the pot will be 200 if you call. You need 37.5% equity.
Against a tight, but likely range of only bigger pairs, AK and AQs (suited only) you have 38% equity.
Against a super tight range of bigger pairs and AK you have 36% equity.
Against an aggressive range of 99+, AQ+ you have 50% equity
Against a super nit range of AA/KK you should obviously just fold!
There will always be some random bluffs, i'm pretty much never folding here once I 4 bet, and I'm going to 4 bet against almost anyone who 3 bets alot from the button, anything over 7 and im happy to get it in.
I'm a lot happier 4 betting JJ and getting it in than 4 betting AJ and folding.
Depending on the player calling the 3bet is often the best play. If they play very predictably (ie tight) and you can get to a showdown when you are ahead then calling is good, if they play very aggressively post flop its a good hand to trap someone with.
Don't listen to advice about playing too nitty yourself, players at these levels don't adjust their play a whole lot. You should be able to see the most important factor is if people are getting it in with AK or lower pairs. If they are either folding AK to the 4 bet or not 3 betting it most of the time, then 4betting is clearly not a good option. I've played in plenty of games over the years where people are felting AA and KK only preflop, the key to making the right decision is to correctly gauge what people's ranges are in these spots.
I was comparing my stats to a 200-400nl pro and his stats were similar to mine except for fold to 4bet% where his was 37% over a large sample and mine was 52%(mainly 100nl). So I implemented some changes but still can only get it down to 49%. Im pretty happy with my 3bet/4bet game at the moment and currently where I play I have tons of notes on my opponents and can identify the preflop warriors and I lower my calling/shoving range accordingly.
Just wondering what other peoples fold to 4bet% is ?
I was comparing my stats to a 200-400nl pro and his stats were similar to mine except for fold to 4bet% where his was 37% over a large sample and mine was 52%(mainly 100nl). So I implemented some changes but still can only get it down to 49%. Im pretty happy with my 3bet/4bet game at the moment and currently where I play I have tons of notes on my opponents and can identify the preflop warriors and I lower my calling/shoving range accordingly.
Just wondering what other peoples fold to 4bet% is ?
Mines 28.8% over the last 50k. . I obv don't like folding .
Be careful with the stat though. Compared to a guy playing 400NL, someone playing 100NL should probably have a higher ft4b. Secondly, it takes a huge sample to even let it become close to accurate. I'm not bothered to do the sums, but I reckon 100k would be too small a sample anyway. Thirdly, looking at someone's stats and trying to emulate them without understanding them doesn't work. There may well be a very good reason why he folds to 4bets much less. May actually be a leak of his, may be a leak of yours, or maybe both of ye are playing well vs your opponents. May be an artefact of a small sample either. Certainly wouldn't worry about it.
or maybe both of ye are playing well vs your opponents.
All of what Tommy said, but this especially. Fold to 4bet is exactly the kind of stat that would vary between winning players at different levels of the game.
"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
I think your betting range is polarized here. you have to bet all houses obv and all your air hands (unlikely you have complete air after calling the turn imo)
no point betting any flush hands because its unlikely you get any value from worse so I just check behind. I also check behind most Aces.
On the GTO defending ranges discussion, you're missing the fact that if villain checks it's +EV for him. If you made villain's cbet 0EV he could improve his expectation by checking instead, which means your defending range isn't optimal.
Villains stats are strange, plays 17/15 over 800 hands AF of 4.2, 81% cbet but 14% turn cbet.
I floated the flop cause I don't think he has much, and I've taken it away from him on the river twice already when the action has gone cbet call, check check, donk fold.
I'm repping a pretty decent flush imo, and can't really see what the villain can have here other than 44 or the Nut flush played strangely. Am I mad to think about shoving over his river raise? Nobody bluff raises rivers at this level surely? But I can't really put him on a hand that would play like this. Turned quads??
Should I just fold to the cbet, or do I need to be calling cbets here with a hand such as this vs someone who cbets so wide?
becasue of his high cb % then this board isnt a bad one to check/raise flop and follow up on turn if called. However not sure if this will work too often at 20nl who find it hard to release an overpair even though equity against your check/raising range is around 35%..
It's Rush Week next week on Full Tilt and I plan on extracting the most bonus I can get out of it. Then I'm going to change sites. Anyone got recommendations for a place to play? I'm leaning towards Betfair at the moment given their great signup bonus and rakeback, how fishy it apparently is, and my high tolerance for bad software.
I'll explore some other options though. Anyone playing on Cake or Entraction have anything good/bad to say about them?
"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
Go with it, im on there at the moment after switching from Full Tilt at the start of this month and its like ive gotten a time machine back to 10 years ago.
Software is ridic bad and there is practically no customer service but if you want tables full of 62-16s its the place to be.
Originally posted by ArmaniJeans
I like this heat - some proper music innit.
None of the 'black disabled lesbian warbling backwards' stuff that the other players inflicted on me.
Nice one Marvin. I deposited a bit for a test, played an hour of 4 tables this afternoon and was up 1.5 buyins. The software's really bad, but it's tolerable. I think I've found my next home. The only problem's going to be not dribbling away my winnings on sports betting.
"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
Go with it, im on there at the moment after switching from Full Tilt at the start of this month and its like ive gotten a time machine back to 10 years ago.
Software is ridic bad and there is practically no customer service but if you want tables full of 62-16s its the place to be.
What stakes are you playing? I'm playing 25/50. Let me know by PM if you want to trade hand histories. Having a decent DB can make a big difference.
"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
So I'm gonna play the GUKPT summer sizzler event here in Sheffield next week and was thinking of selling a few % since it's way out of my bankroll. Would it be completely out of order for me to try to flog %'s here?
Obviously I'm not gonna charge 25% vig to cover expenses, if anything I should probably offer them at a discount... Total buyins will be ÂŁ825, which is ~$1250. I'll play the sats obviously, but it's still a significant amount of money for me. $11 for 1% of a random boards guy in a 110-man tourney that will be a random mix of mid-stakes pros and local donks would not be unreasonable would it?
"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
It's Rush Week next week on Full Tilt and I plan on extracting the most bonus I can get out of it. Then I'm going to change sites. Anyone got recommendations for a place to play? I'm leaning towards Betfair at the moment given their great signup bonus and rakeback, how fishy it apparently is, and my high tolerance for bad software.
I'll explore some other options though. Anyone playing on Cake or Entraction have anything good/bad to say about them?
where can I find details of their sign up bonus and rake back?
Bubbleking: I got all my offers from IanMc's RakebackFTW site. That's my referrer URL if you want to use them. I'd like a cut obv. There's loads of sites like this that will have handy lists of bonuses and rakeback deals too.
"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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