ICM call or fold?

[crai]

tourney on stars blinds 50k 100k

4 left payouts- 1st 6300 2nd 4600 3rd 3300 4th 2400
Hero playing 5.5m
villain playing 11m
shrot stack 600k
mid stack playing 3m

Since accumulating a stack the villain has been pounding the table 4 handed. He hasnt played particularly well until now but has been open shoving or 3bet shoving literally every hand since its gone 4 handed.

I pick up AQo in the co and raise to 200k villain does what he has been doing and 3 bet shoves...shorty blinds get out of the way and its back to us???

does anyone think a limp pre would be better? or even a fold?

is that an icm call or fold?

[peterswellman]

Fold and fold quick. Certainly an open raise but I would just dump it now. It sucks having to fold a hand as good as AQ four handed but calling here would be ICM suicide.

[starofcctv4]

If they have been doing it all the time like u said they must be doing it light, AQ is too strong a hand to fold in this scenario unless your looking to move up the money ladder in which case just open fold and wait for the shorty to bust.
It has to be a call here!

[eamonhonda]

If they have been doing it all the time like u said they must be doing it light, AQ is too strong a hand to fold in this scenario unless your looking to move up the money ladder in which case just open fold and wait for the shorty to bust.
It has to be a call here!

Not sure about icm etc but for me here I agree either your open folding or your raise calling here. If he is raising all the time he has to be doing it light and your gonna be unlucky to be behind with a call here

[fumyname]

Depends on how much you need the dollars really...


its a standard enough call but with the heavy top prizes and the fact iv 55 bigs im not worried..you will find better spots..!!...

as peter said icm suicide

[Laois Hammer]

Its never a call, that b*llshit saying about needing to call if you wanna win the tournament will prob crop up but getting yourself all in for 4th vs the only guy that covers you is alot worse than nitting up and laddering imho.

you have 55bbs and a guy has 6bbs If he shows you 72o its a fold,

you also cant open fold because of the variation where you get to run vs the shorty so open fold or raise/call is way off

[ghostface]

you don't need ICM to know thats a fold

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SP_9zH9Q44o

[blanchero]

ya real easy fold,pre was fine but just dump it after that,prob shud b pukefolding QQ in that spot so its not even close,different dynamics after d short goes bust so u shud b able to pick up much better spots

[pumpkinS00P]

grow a set and snap!

[pumpkinS00P]

prob shud b pukefolding QQ in that spot so its not even close

are we living in 1995 or 2012??

[shano1888]

What do people call it off with? I fold btw. (not folding qq though).

[peterswellman]

grow a set and snap!

Burning money is what your doing.

[loopers]

What do people call it off with? I fold btw. (not folding qq though).

It's weird actually, against a range of Any Broadway, any ace, any pair, QQ is only a 70% favourite.

might actually be a fold..? Passing up this edge with megashortstack still in might actually not be that bad.

If the payjumps are no consideration for me, I call JJ+ AK i supppose

[Mellor]

Good choice on hand for explaning ICM to people.

The main issue with ICM is that its mainly a post hand analysis tool. You have to take from it basic principles and take your best guess at the table. So my reply here is based on previous ICM cals i've done and not on actual numbers here. I also haven't read replies yet to say neutral.

You've 2400 locked up and each jump is worth, 900, 1300 and 1700 respectively. With the shortie, your stack is worth a decent amount. You've a god hand here and are definitely ahead of his range, the problem is that you are never that far ahead and are often flipping. In that spot, you are losing more equity than you are gaining, so my gut says to fold.

[Mellor]

Not sure about icm etc but for me here I agree either your open folding or your raise calling here. If he is raising all the time he has to be doing it light and your gonna be unlucky to be behind with a call here

Bet/fold is still profitable as he doesn't 3bet every single time. So its easily a better option than the open fold. Being ahead here doesn't matter at all.
We are worth about 2nd place money at the min (4600). There is a limit to what doubling up earns us, prob less than 1k. Busting here costs us 2.2k or so (4th place 2400). So we are losing much more than gain in terms of $. So we need to be c.75% vrs his range to show a profit here.

are we living in 1995 or 2012??

If anything the idea that "AQ is ahead so get it in, if he hits its a badbeat". "I would of came first if I won that hand", etc - is 1995 thinking, not the other way around.

[TheDrunkenOne]

can someone explain to me the relationship / conflict between ICM and results orientated play

to me its a call as my range is way ahead and when /if i win this hand its chipleader role reversal and in a dominant position to TID

[Mellor]

can someone explain to me the relationship / conflict between ICM and results orientated play

to me its a call as my range is way ahead and when /if i win this hand its chipleader role reversal and in a dominant position to TID

When you win, you have about 11million and are a favourite to take it down. You'll come first more than any other position, and your average cash will be about $5400.
When you lose you leave with $2400.

Your current stack is still in quite a dominant. With the shortie on 600k amd the other player on 3 million, your average cash will be aobut 2nd place monies, or $4600.

So based on the above figures, busting costs us $2200, and doubling earns us $800. Risk vrs Reward means that we want to win about 75% of the time to show a profit. We just don't ever have that edge with AQ. Not even verses 23o with suits that match our own.
Best case scenerio, we are against Ace rag and its still only a breakeven call.

You can't ever win more than 1st place, so each chip you add is worth less than the previous one. The chips you lose are always worth more than the chips you earn.

[TheDrunkenOne]

TYVM its these finer aspects of game which I need to explore and learn. Well explained

[max_power]

Good post Mellor.

It's a very easy fold. Nothing more fun thatn being the CL and hammering away at the others knowing they can't call profitbaly bar a few hands in situations like this.

[eamonhonda]

Great post Mellor really explains it well

[jazzyfish]

grow a set and snap!

lol worst advice ever

[jazzyfish]

What do people call it off with? I fold btw. (not folding qq though).

im folding QQ evryday in this spot i was in the excat same spot with KK in the big 22 dollar with 6 left im second in chips and lose to chipleaders QQ i think i find a fold with AA here but if not thats the worst hand im calling here icm is massive in these spots

[Angry-Ball]

im folding QQ evryday in this spot i was in the excat same spot with KK in the big 22 dollar with 6 left im second in chips and lose to chipleaders QQ i think i find a fold with AA here but if not thats the worst hand im calling here icm is massive in these spots

WTF

[Winning!]

WTF

FTW

[Arazi]

im folding QQ evryday in this spot i was in the excat same spot with KK in the big 22 dollar with 6 left im second in chips and lose to chipleaders QQ i think i find a fold with AA here but if not thats the worst hand im calling here icm is massive in these spots

It's April 19th but I'm installing this as 4/6 Favourite for the 2012 Retard Post of the Year.

[Guest]

It's April 19th but I'm installing this as 4/6 Favourite for the 2012 Retard Post of the Year.

Hes facing some tough opposition.

[Arazi]

Hes facing some tough opposition.

Lol ye we probably have a couple of entries in there ourselves

[jazzyfish]

WTF

ok i prob should of checked this hand before i put up my last post but after reading these comments i had to go check the hand i done the math and put it through poker wizard you need KK + here to cal and no matter how wide or how tight i make there calling ranges QQ is still a fold in this spot

[Mellor]

ok i prob should of checked this hand before i put up my last post but after reading these comments i had to go check the hand i done the math and put it through poker wizard you need KK + here to cal and no matter how wide or how tight i make there calling ranges QQ is still a fold in this spot

He was referring to the fact that you said you fold AA in that spot, not folding QQ

[jazzyfish]

He was referring to the fact that you said you fold AA in that spot, not folding QQ

ye priity bad saying that alright just of the top of my head i taught KK was fold here and AA were close but its not that bad still KK + doh

[premierstone]

lol worst advice ever

im folding QQ evryday in this spot i was in the excat same spot with KK in the big 22 dollar with 6 left im second in chips and lose to chipleaders QQ i think i find a fold with AA here but if not thats the worst hand im calling here icm is massive in these spots

Pot, Kettle and black stuff all over the place

[Arazi]

Fwiw regardless of what ICM says in this instance I'm deffo calling with QQ, and JJ also, I'm not liking it but I wouldn't fold AK either, AQ is a maybe.
U have to remember that if this guy is shoving and 3bet shoving litterally every hand that he will probably end up doubling one of the shorter stacks before long. QQ is too good an opportunity to pass up given dynamics IMO. ICM u must remember is only maths based theory and must be tweeked for application to practical settings.

[shano1888]

Fwiw regardless of what ICM says in this instance I'm deffo calling with QQ, and JJ also, I'm not liking it but I wouldn't fold AK either, AQ is a maybe.
U have to remember that if this guy is shoving and 3bet shoving litterally every hand that he will probably end up doubling one of the shorter stacks before long. QQ is too good an opportunity to pass up given dynamics IMO. ICM u must remember is only maths based theory and must be tweeked for application to practical settings.

This. qq is ahead by enough enough of the time to justify it imo. we have second place money virtually locked up if we call and hold. would possibly let ak go though and would def fold aq.

[Tremolo1]

Fwiw regardless of what ICM says in this instance I'm deffo calling with QQ, and JJ also, I'm not liking it but I wouldn't fold AK either, AQ is a maybe.

You do realise AK won't differ that much in equity vs his range and is still a fold

[sligoboi]

I this thread.

Once we assign a range to the villain ICM tells us what we should be doing depending on our holdings, ours and others' stacks and the pay jumps. We don't, or shouldn't, decide to ignore it/adhere to it depending on our mood.