Reduced numbers of close contacts indicates social distancing is working as people are simply in contact with less people, less chance of spreading. It's gone from 20->5->3.
That's likely as low as it will go based on average household size.
Positivity rate is the number of confirmed cases/concluded tests.
Previously we had a positivity rate of 6%, since priority testing has been introduced its risen to 15%.
SK currently have a positivity rate of 2.5%, the lower that has gone, the better their situation has become. They've effectively been flat, floating 100 cases per day(proportionally 10 here). That occurred at around 3%.
We want it down there but as they rightly suspected our testing was being diluted by people less likely to have the disease.
Similar to confirmed cases and deaths, positivity rate will climb and then decline as we penetrate deeper into the population. Long term the goal is lower but the higher % now is just an indication that the priority testing was the correct decision.
Anyone else suddenly rediscovering the joy of getting the recommended hours of sleep night after night?
Bed at 12ish, up at 8.20 is such a huge difference from say a normal Thursday of hanging on for the last few shots in the US Golf at 12.30am, then having an alarm go off at 7am.
Would hope to make some effort at keeping this going when 'the event' is over, but will doubtless fall back into old habits.
Fuck you, you prick!
P.S. Would you like to borrow 2 small children for a few days?
One further death and 204 new confirmed cases reported as stocks of protective equipment run ‘low’
Resting same person.
See conclusions bullet point two. 2 to 4 negative required. Some may be positive and cycle starts again. This type of testing is ongoing with existing patients.
Stocks expected to be fully replenished by Tuesday while laboratories also lack reagent
I've also seen other figures which is why I believe the article you're sharing is concluded tests not conducted tests. Either way though 30k or 51k, testing volumes are up and proportionally we're doing excellent.
Just to be sure, on the testing, you're claiming that from the 30k tests concluded/conducted thus far, they're not assigned one test to one case but are rather summing up all conducted tests no matter how many are done on each person?
Where did you read that? It seems if that was the case the whole world media would be up in arms over massively underreported testing figures.
Stocks expected to be fully replenished by Tuesday while laboratories also lack reagent
I've also seen other figures which is why I believe the article you're sharing is concluded tests not conducted tests. Either way though 30k or 51k, testing volumes are up and proportionally we're doing excellent.
Just to be sure, on the testing, you're claiming that from the 30k tests concluded/conducted thus far, they're not assigned one test to one case but are rather summing up all conducted tests no matter how many are done on each person?
Where did you read that? It seems if that was the case the whole world media would be up in arms over massively underreported testing figures.
They have only been able to conclude ~1500 tests a day over the past week due to the global shortage of required testing equipment. Again, this was stated at the most recent briefing, which is, in my opinion, the best source available for the current state of affairs. If you can't watch them live (RTÉ News Now) they can be viewed on the RTÉ News Twitter page. Here is last night's.
No one in my, nor my folks' house has seen another human in 18 days other than my dad whose daily routine is walking our dog. My mother wants to see my kids tomorrow coz she's bored stupid. Using the Lazare societal barometer, would I be a murderous thug like him, or a caring son if I were to agree?
If one of the persons involved caught the virus 19 days ago, was asymptomatic, and passed it across to another family member on the "final day" of the 14 day potential incubation period that person would need another 14 days to be clear.
A LOT of assumptions and permutations but that's why we're likely going to be in lock down for 3 months rather than 3 weeks - imo.
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner! https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
I mistakenly thought he was referring to health care worker. Scary that he is capable of saying something like this though.
Im an advocate of face guard of some sort and only matter of time before it'll be considered best practice in EU/USA
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Nah, we aren't in the hustle bustle of an overcrowded have to go out society. We just have to stay at home. Leave the masks for the people fighting the fight.
We will all possibly have to have masks for a bit soon but not now. Just practice what we are meant to.
Dawned on me today that 3 months of boozing prob not good
Decided to top up the kettlebell collection but looks like there’s been a run and none are to be found online
I bought kettlebells years ago, used them about twice; if I was too lazy to go to the gym I'd also be too lazy to exercise at home. I sold them just after Christmas.
@Murdrum (+ anyone else who has an opinion). What do we think is going to happen in the US, have they left it too late to effectively flatten the curve?
@Murdrum (+ anyone else who has an opinion). What do we think is going to happen in the US,
They nearly lost their minds over 60k military deaths in Vietnam. Their fragile soiecty will implode over the next while. The figures Tony Fauci is going public with are the Disney PG13 numbers that he thinks will nudge changes in behaviour, and are a 'white lie' at best.
The point being that people carry on every day needing to and willingly do pay for products and services so why, other than some Sinn Fein bag of wind and piss on twitter cries foul, do consumers think that AIB bank should be the one they get for free.
I don't think the bank is the only one.
People was
I bought kettlebells years ago, used them about twice; if I was too lazy to go to the gym I'd also be too lazy to exercise at home. I sold them just after Christmas.
Have 4 sitting at home and haven't touched one since I stopped going to the gym.
Just got arrested for driving to work with no letter ID Got heated . Told him to cop on and he lost the plot bloody culchies. Have to stay in this stupid station for 3 hours
Have 4 sitting at home and haven't touched one since I stopped going to the gym.
What's the advantage of kettlebells over dumbbells? Getting plenty of use out of my cheapo dumbbells, and really don't feel the need for more equipment yet.
That chart doesn't normalise for population size, if it did, you wouldn't see the Chinese line while Spain would have approx 350k cases at the day 16 mark.
That said, if you take NYC vs Spain, NYC proportionally has hit over 350k confimed cases to date vs Spains 95k.
It's not all linear but that would probably be closer to the real view than what that chart shows.
Big worry is testing. The testing volume across the US has leveled off(100k tests a day, 1m total thus far).
The bulk of testing and confirmed cases has come from NYC. The question for me is how much of that is Cuomo vs the US in general?
NYC is scandalous, I mean almost 1% of their population has Covid19 and it has tested 13x the amount per capita than California.
Now it's comfortably the most densely populated region of the US so that plays a huge role. I can't quite understate the correlation between density & spread tbh.
I think drawing conclusions on the US will be difficult. NY may be tackling the virus as well as anyone globally but that's self evidently not a ubiquitous approach across the US.
Overall, NY included, it seems that irrespective of what was declared, the tangible impact on the ground has been late arriving especially given their capacity. NYC may be the hardest hit as a result so we could be seeing the worst of it.
NY will be good for everyone else though because at their testing volumes, they may offer the more accurate assessment of Covids undetected spread in other major cities.
As mentioned before, Nate is the man on this, shares the best stuff and cuts through the bullshit of others with ease, worth starting a Twitter just for him and Hitch of course
Just got arrested for driving to work with no letter ID Got heated . Told him to cop on and he lost the plot bloody culchies. Have to stay in this stupid station for 3 hours
Shits getting real
Trying to figure out the punchline here, is this real? Why did you not just say you were going to the shop?
Jaysus, one of my sisters had an accident yesterday in her kitchen with a pyrex dish. Got 30 stitches in her leg up in the Beacon, and is now on crutches. Take it easy out there folks!
I think Comrade Collie is, possibly subconsciously, but probably mostly influenced by the BBV, shadowing the very parks that Shane Ross used to loiter in of a Saturday morning accosting jogger wankers with election literature.
The world turns on its axis and everything changes but things remain the same.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
I think Comrade Collie is, possibly subconsciously, but probably mostly influenced by the BBV, shadowing the very parks that Shane Ross used to loiter in of a Saturday morning accosting jogger wankers with election literature.
The world turns on its axis and everything changes but things remain the same.
I'm just lucky to live within a 2km radius of Marlay, Bushy, and Orwell parks.
Came 3rd in 5000 runner stars tourney last night for 5k.
Didn’t notice it was progressive blinds finished at 5
His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
I think Comrade Collie is, possibly subconsciously, but probably mostly influenced by the BBV, shadowing the very parks that Shane Ross used to loiter in of a Saturday morning accosting jogger wankers with election literature.
The world turns on its axis and everything changes but things remain the same.
Gf accosted him in Marlay Park and pretty much said if you are not volunteering to steward then GFTO. To his credit he did volunteer the next week.
Definitely feel like am missing out on being able to nip to Bushy Park for an ad-hoc burrito of a Saturday
Thread on Reddit discussing Bill Gates call night for a shut down of absolutely everything in American. I love this analogy as the top comment on Reddit
Having places shut down and places not shut down is like having a peeing section in the pool.
a twitter spat with Jim Corr, Gemma O Dea and Mcgregor....
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner! https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
And according to reports this weekend, the British government has been told the Chinese may have lied about the extent of their own outbreak by a factor of 40.
Precious time was lost for other countries to prepare for the virus and when they did, it seems it was based on fudged figures and dodgy data.
China is facing a public relations catastrophe that is only likely to deepen, writes Sky's diplomatic editor Dominic Waghorn.
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner! https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
Stocks expected to be fully replenished by Tuesday while laboratories also lack reagent
I've also seen other figures which is why I believe the article you're sharing is concluded tests not conducted tests. Either way though 30k or 51k, testing volumes are up and proportionally we're doing excellent.
Just to be sure, on the testing, you're claiming that from the 30k tests concluded/conducted thus far, they're not assigned one test to one case but are rather summing up all conducted tests no matter how many are done on each person?
Where did you read that? It seems if that was the case the whole world media would be up in arms over massively underreported testing figures.
I guess. Do you think the labs are reporting total throughput or just throughput of new cases? Would they even be able to determine the difference?
Riddle me this one.
Over the last 5 days we have had 302,294,200,295 and 325 confirmed cases. Averages to about 300 cases a day.
If the positivity rate is 15% then 300 must be 15% of the number of completed tests over the same period, right. This would require a testing capacity of 2000 completions per day.
They have stated they can only complete 1500 a day due to equipment shortfall, so how are these numbers possible?
I'm not getting this from anywhere else. It's just simple math, my level.
Would you agree that if we had the capacity to test more we would be seeing more confirmed cases? I would suggest the answer has to be yes.
We won't get big confirmed case numbers because we can't. It has been suggested that we are flattening the curve. I would suggest the reason for this is we have reached a ceiling of confirmed cases, around 300, due to the lab test bottleneck.
Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt
Hitch only believes things from Governmental sources.
Whatever they are up to now it's not a patch on the - Smash Sparrows Campaign.
"The "Four Pests" campaign was introduced in 1958 by Mao Zedong, as a hygiene campaign aimed to eradicate the pests responsible for the transmission of pestilence and disease: the mosquitos responsible for malaria; the rodents that spread the plague; the pervasive airborne flies; and the sparrows – specifically the Eurasian tree sparrow – which ate grain seed and fruit.[1] The government also declared that "birds are public animals of capitalism".[2] According to some eyewitnesses, citizens would bang pots and pans so that sparrows would not have the chance to rest on tree branches and would fall dead from the sky.[3] Sparrow nests were also destroyed, eggs were broken, and chicks were killed. In addition to these tactics, citizens also resorted to simply shooting the birds down from the sky.[4] These mass attacks depleted the sparrow population, pushing it to near extinction.[4] Furthermore, contests were held among enterprises, government agencies, and schools in cleanliness.[3] Non-material rewards were given to those who handed in the largest number of rat tails, dead flies and mosquitoes, or dead sparrows.[5]"
...
which resulted in severe ecological imbalance, being one of the causes of the Great Chinese Famine (15 - 45 million dead). In 1960, Mao Zedong ended the campaign against sparrows and redirected the fourth focus to bed bugs.
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To...View Post
I think we can all accept that China has done some pretty awful things! I said yesterday that I give much more weight to reliable intergovernmental sources (not government sources, although some are clearly reliable), which is a useful life strategy. Not so much, opinion pieces citing anonymous reports that no-one else is aware of on Murdoch's news outlets. But you do you if that's what you want as a knowledge source.
Wouldn’t trust WHO on China, I’d say they’ve been leaned on at various stages over past few months
One good thing about this crisis is it has wiped all that trans bollox from the timeline.
Saw one post saying I guess we are immune with a breakdown of cases by Male and Female below it
His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
You can live without buying cheap tat from China.
Know a few people obsessed with getting “bargains” on Ali baba , stuff which either doesn’t arrive or falls apart /looks like shit when it does
Sooner or later (and this crisis mAy accelerate this) we are going to have to start paying the true cost of goods like clothes and food.
5 euro T-shirt’s etc were never a good idea!
So the sister wasn't joking. The dish didn't even break, but somehow sliced through her shin through to the bone. Quite the bloody mess apparently. Thankfully one of her sons is a Garda and was home at the time, so he knew some first aid and has a cooler head than most.
This is the same sister who had ovarian cancer in 2016, and was off work for a year because of it.
I guess. Do you think the labs are reporting total throughput or just throughput of new cases? Would they even be able to determine the difference?
Riddle me this one.
Over the last 5 days we have had 302,294,200,295 and 325 confirmed cases. Averages to about 300 cases a day.
If the positivity rate is 15% then 300 must be 15% of the number of completed tests over the same period, right. This would require a testing capacity of 2000 completions per day.
They have stated they can only complete 1500 a day due to equipment shortfall, so how are these numbers possible?
I'm not getting this from anywhere else. It's just simple math, my level.
Would you agree that if we had the capacity to test more we would be seeing more confirmed cases? I would suggest the answer has to be yes.
We won't get big confirmed case numbers because we can't. It has been suggested that we are flattening the curve. I would suggest the reason for this is we have reached a ceiling of confirmed cases, around 300, due to the lab test bottleneck.
I'd be 99.99% sure it is throughput of unique cases because if it wasn't and we are following the same protocol as the ECDC then you're effectively saying that the numbers being reported here & elsewhere are purposefully deceptive.
That would be a huge revelation, it seems beyond unbelievable to me, everyone believes it's throughput of unique patients not total testing attempts.
I see your point with the positivity rate and the discrepancy. Though I don't think it's particularly worrisome, I'd put it down to the timelapse rather than some sort of intentional fudging.
For example Kev shared ICU figures from Fergal Bower from yesterday, that report was published on March 28th meaning rates likely only accurate to March 27th at best but it was still being reported yesterday.
They're not wrong, just lagging, I expect rates, tests cases etc are all coming from sources at different points in time, it's a necessary evil when things evolve so quickly.
Yes, of course more confirmed cases would occur, we're not getting everyone but maybe not more proportionally confirmed cases. That positivity rate would drop as it has done in SK over the past few months. Test the highest probability to the lowest probability as the resources free up, that's the plan and it's working.
You need to look at our response/numbers in relative, not absolute terms.
30k tests (imo unique) in a month, that's quicker than the leading nations fighting this crisis have got there. We've made smart choices throughout the process and I see little reason to suspect augmentation of figures.
Saw one post saying I guess we are immune with a breakdown of cases by Male and Female below it
Yeah I saw similar, although I think the one I saw was good humoured.
Just got really sick of the topic, the venom around it. Also don't like how conflicted I personally am about the whole issue so am glad of the respite from it.
I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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