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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostPolitical editor of Sunday Times. She might be resigning. In fairness even Boris could run the country better
May is inept and vacillating. But (scary thought) she might be the best they've got."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostIt's all moot who might get the vote if she gets her 156 votes tonight to stay anyway
Good news for you: Brady says the leadership contest could happen with ten days (if there is one).
Good news for Leo: he doesn't have to pretend to be polite to her in Dublin today."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostBoris won't get the votes nor will any other Hard Brexiteer.
Once it goes to the wider membership then Boris likely wins.
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Originally posted by Silver-Tiger View PostDoes she win later?‘IF YOU had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.” Genghis Khan
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Originally posted by Silver-Tiger View PostDoes she win later?
Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostIf there is an election for a new leader then it's worth remembering that Boris would only need 106 of the 316 MPs to support him to be guaranteed to be on the ballot paper that goes to the members. Top 2 go to the members so 33%+1 is fine. 90 votes would probably be enough unless two normal candidates manage to split their vote perfectly. The ERG base of 50 gives him a good start there.
Once it goes to the wider membership then Boris likely wins.
Boris won't get the votes nor will any other Hard Brexiteer.
Withdrawal agreement is in the bin
Then they will make a show of trying to renegotiate, they will fail then its a binary choice: Article 50 deferred and an election or No Deal on March 29th. They would know they have more chance of winning an election than a referendum.
That would be a very close call, ERG types will realise that by then the only type of brexit they (or anyone probably) could ever deliver would be a no deal one. They would try to sell it on the basis of it being a month or two of chaos and then Europe would come to them begging for a trade deal on brexiteer terms.Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by Hatedajacks View PostScary How the Web can start a rumour and it become gospel. From what I hear From fairly decent source CM has nothing to do with this and its a sportsmen from a much more popular sport involved. Guess we will find out in time either way in time.People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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Originally posted by V for Vendetta View PostI think she does. I think the plotters should have waited another week or two when she came back with nothing substantial from Europe.
Clowns."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostThis makes more sense:JAMES McClean and his Stoke City teammates held a special fancy dress Christmas bash in Dublin this weekend. The Ireland star and several Potters players hit the Irish capital straight after their …
One of them stands out.....
SPOILERsaid sports star has categorically denied it was him btwPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostPolitical editor of Sunday Times. She might be resigning. In fairness even Boris could run the country better
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostSure they made their move three weeks ago and couldn't muster the votes.
Clowns.‘IF YOU had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.” Genghis Khan
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Originally posted by Silver-Tiger View PostDoes she win later?
BAH GAWD, THAT’S JEREMY CORBYN’S MUSIC!! HE’S GOT THE MOTION OF NO CONFIDENCE!
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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Originally posted by DeadParrot View Posthttps://www.thesun.ie/sport/football...istmas-dublin/
One of them stands out.....
SPOILERsaid sports star has categorically denied it was him btw
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostIf there is an election for a new leader then it's worth remembering that Boris would only need 106 of the 316 MPs to support him to be guaranteed to be on the ballot paper that goes to the members. Top 2 go to the members so 33%+1 is fine. 90 votes would probably be enough unless two normal candidates manage to split their vote perfectly. The ERG base of 50 gives him a good start there.
Once it goes to the wider membership then Boris likely wins.
Raab - Raab has an appalling reputation with his former DExEU civil servants, wouldn't do DExEU meetings during his gym time during working hours every afternoon.
Johnson - repeatedly discredited, including an appalling stint as foreign sec.
Davis - failed as DExEU sec, also misled parliament repeatedly
Mcvey - well known cunt who told parliament that the country needing food banks is a good thing
Javid - referred to "sick Asian paedophiles"
Rudd - 4 failed business behind her, plus had to resign from HO.
Patel - an absolute bitch, who had to resign for acting beyond her brief
Gove - hated edu sec, grudgingly respected environment sec
Hunt - hated health sec, made a twat of himself as foreign sec including referring to his chinese wife as japanese
Morduant - swimsuit penny, that alone is more than enough for the red tops to crucify her
Leadsome - suggested herself as a more suitable PM because she's a mother
Gove ftw
SPOILERPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by V for Vendetta View PostThing is if she wins tonight she’s safe for 12 months. Basically she can lose the vote in parliament, withdraw article 50 and blame parliament for not being willing to deliver the will of the people. Negotiate a Norway arrangement as an interim to a trade agreement and the backstop is gone away. Gamble gamble for Mrs May.
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Originally posted by 5starpool View PostExcept for the fact that Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and lichtenstein don't want them in the efta at all and can (and will) refuse.‘IF YOU had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.” Genghis Khan
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They’re not going to cop on until they walk into their local Tesco and are greeted by empty shelves (and might not even cop on then)
Loads of “Churchill spirit” and goo feasting left
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Seems a massive miscalculation to have a vote against May right now.
Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostIf there is an election for a new leader then it's worth remembering that Boris would only need 106 of the 316 MPs to support him to be guaranteed to be on the ballot paper that goes to the members. Top 2 go to the members so 33%+1 is fine. 90 votes would probably be enough unless two normal candidates manage to split their vote perfectly. The ERG base of 50 gives him a good start there.
Once it goes to the wider membership then Boris likely wins.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostSeems a massive miscalculation to have a vote against May right now.
Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostWould he want the job right now?
Realistically being leader of the opposition and winning an election on a tide of goodwill (Blair, Cameron) is the best way to become PM but this would be 7 years away for Boris.
Becoming PM after an unpopular leader resigns (how Major, Brown, May got it) is probably the best he'll ever get.
He really wants it though.
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Posthttps://www.oddschecker.com/politics...ence-vote-2018
2/5 She wins vote.
21/10 She loses.
Closer than I thought they'd be.airport, lol
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Posthttps://www.oddschecker.com/politics...ence-vote-2018
2/5 She wins vote.
21/10 She loses.
Closer than I thought they'd be.
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I know the worlds gone mad on being "offended" and most of its a load of bollocks but this is hilarious in how stupid some people can be to bring it on themselves...
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostA theory doing the rounds that May loyalists may have sent in letters just to push it over the line now knowing a win means she is safe from the ERG bullshit for 12 month.
I think the only thing to really bet on is the size of her winning margin. Expect less than 80 votes against her.‘IF YOU had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.” Genghis Khan
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostNow 1/6 7/2 type betting, looks more accurate.
I'll have a small wager on 50-69 votes @ 7/1.
That said, even when she wins, she still loses."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post7/1 gone, now 5s.
It's like when JP steps into the ring at Cheltenham.
It would have been a relief to finally be able to forgive you for telling me not to back Ireland to come back against England at 150/1 in the cricket world cup.
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Originally posted by Keane View PostI was going to back that when I read your post about the 7s, nice spot.
It would have been a relief to finally be able to forgive you for telling me not to back Ireland to come back against England at 150/1 in the cricket world cup.
Unless I can pick the next US President at a crazy price...."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakI think RDIII is very hard on May. Easy to be back seat driver and say she is useless and compare her to Thatcher. But the reality is there's not a lot of meat on the bones of your assertion of how useless she is. Could somebody else in the Tory party be doing a better job right now?
I think history will be kind to May. She never once comes across as driven by any sort of ego or sense of Etonian entitlement that precipitates so many of the others looking for her job. She always comes across as trying her best and have a sense of service to achieve an outcome. It's never ever been about her. I think we would be witnessing this same shit show regardless of who was in the hot seat. I admire her perseverance, particularly when compared to Cameron who ran for the hills.
- the ludicrous GE, she bears 100% of the blame for that clusterfuck - which made the DUP central to Brexit
- The completely unsustainable red lines she set out - and then abandoned one by one
- Sending successive Brexit secretaries and negotiators to Brussels - with no iota of what they were supposed to achieve. Weygand's team just laughed at them.
- The humiliation in parliament last week.
- The humiliation in European capitals this week
That's just the high-level points. At every step of the process she has prevaricated, dithered and procrastinated. She's not a leader and her premiership will be remembered for a botched delivery of Brexit that united everyone in the UK in opposition to it."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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This guy does good Brexit:
May: the pretence of a consensual compromise
That direction of travel was realistic in the limited, but by no means unimportant, sense that it led to an agreement – May’s deal – being made in the form that we have now seen. But May remains wholly unrealistic in, now, presenting it as a ‘compromise’ between leave and remain positions which she expects both sides to ‘get behind’. By first tacking so hard towards the Brexit Ultras, and dismissing remainers, and then partly rowing back, she has created a version of Brexit which pleases almost no one.
That simply can’t be covered over by repeating, as she did when opening the debate, what against stiff competition is one of the most egregious lies told in the Brexit process. That is the proposition that since both main parties at the 2017 General Election endorsed not just Brexit but the hard Brexit of no single market membership, and since 80% of voters voted for one of these parties, this ‘proves’ there is overwhelming support for both Brexit and hard Brexit. It is manifestly nonsense, as is shown not least by the hallowed result of the 2016 Referendum. It is simply a pretence to claim anything other than that the country, like the House of Commons, is bitterly and more or less equally divided"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakI think RDIII is very hard on May. Easy to be back seat driver and say she is useless and compare her to Thatcher. But the reality is there's not a lot of meat on the bones of your assertion of how useless she is. Could somebody else in the Tory party be doing a better job right now?
I think history will be kind to May. She never once comes across as driven by any sort of ego or sense of Etonian entitlement that precipitates so many of the others looking for her job. She always comes across as trying her best and have a sense of service to achieve an outcome. It's never ever been about her. I think we would be witnessing this same shit show regardless of who was in the hot seat. I admire her perseverance, particularly when compared to Cameron who ran for the hills.
She has:
Tried to push through triggering Article 50 without giving parliament a say, losing in the courts.
Tried to push through Henry VIII powers that would change democratic process in parliament.
Called election grossly misjudging the consensus among the populace
Lost said election then bribed the DUP to keep her in power.
Tried to push through leaving the EU without giving MPs a meaningful vote.
Tried to avoid sharing legal advice given to her with parliament, losing in the courts.
Become the first PM in history to have her government found in contempt of parliament.
Run away from a vote on her deal as she knows it would fail.
And that is before we talk about her influence in the Windrush scandal and lies on the Citizens Rights Directive.
Fuck herPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
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LOL safe to say a few disagreements there BCBPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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I do agree that May came into power in an extremely difficult situation, but every major decision she has made has turned to be almost the exact wrong decision.
In fairness, this latest stunt of pulling the vote on the WA could prove to be inspired - but I suspect they'll fuck up the opportunity they have blundered into soon enough.
For her to get any credit I feel I would have to believe she's making a huge mess of everything on purpose in some Machiavellian scheme but I don't buy it for a second.
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View PostShe is doing a better job than Corbyn.
The circumstances are such that he cannot have power. Probably not now, definitely not later. The issue is that he has made tabling a vote of no-confidence a preliminary first step to calling for a second referendum.
It doesn't matter tables the motion or not of its own sake, only because he himself has made it part of the process.
He is now hiding behind that process. It was the intention of conference that he would do one, then the other. Not that he would just do neither. If the intention was for him to only make the MONC when he was certain to win it, then there would be no need for a part 2 to the process. Everyone apart from Team Corbyn has always known and has always said that he is never going to get the numbers to defeat the government in this way but the high command dug their heels in and the party said "fine, do it your way, but when that fails, we do it our way". That was the implied agreement. By refusing to even try, he is frustrating that agreement.
If nothing changes later it's too late to do the second part and J-Dog knows it.People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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Originally posted by Gimmeabreak> I think the fact that she is going to convincingly win the VONC later tells a big story which we've not read into.
Plus as well there's probably 100/150 Tories who will vote whatever way the wind blows.
And, even when she wins, she still has to own the unmitigated fuckup she's made of Brexit. This cartoon sideshow today weakens her already weak pisituon even further.
Note: I'm not proposing anyone who could do a better job. Most of the leading Tories are droolers. And as for Labour....it still doesn't mitigate how terrible she's been."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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there's two no confidence votes at play, in case anyone is getting confused. The one this evening is amongst the Tories in Theresa May, the one corbyn is humming and hawing about is the vote of no confidence in the government.Is that how you crash a wedding? yes it is, Bionic Barry, yes it is.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakI think May being at the helm for Brexit is analogous to Cowen being at the helm for the Irish collapse. Sure he was driving the car when it crashed, but he along didn't set the car on that course.Is that how you crash a wedding? yes it is, Bionic Barry, yes it is.
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Good post on boards this morning:
Originally posted by seamusancapailldorcha made a comment a couple of days ago about how the Brexiters in parliament were already leveraged in favour of Brexit. They've placed their bets, moved around their money, and their financial future now rides on ensuring that Brexit happens, ideally as hard as possible.
Realistically this is the only thing that now makes any sense. Barring an outcome where May receives 60% of the votes and thus can claim a "decisive" victory, all other outcomes lead to further uncertainty, further chaos in the Tories, general elections, and ultimately delays and stalling, preventing anything except a crash-out Brexit from happening.
The only way the actions of the ERG make any sense is if they are actively fighting for a crash-out Brexit and thus are willing to throw anything and everything at it, no matter how ill-planned or uncertain. They have no interest in any deal, their only interest is making sure there is no deal.
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