Originally posted by jack90210
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostThat is very wrong.
Clue: in both cases you are polling the entire population.Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by Ed View PostBy your logic above, the poll from the Sunday Independent shows only 0.34% of people are against..... (or whatever the actual correct number is based on total polled as a portion of the voting electorate)
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View PostYou'll have to explain to me how the statistical significance of the same percentage of an entire population varies by the size of that population.
Clue: in both cases you are polling the entire population.
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostWell with a population of 200 in the whole country I don't think statistically that's a sufficent response to draw accurate conclusions on the total population.
Sample size of 1000 is enough to model (decently) general election with a potential voter pool in the millions.
Yes.. this is how this works.May you live in interesting times!
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostThe lie is saying 80% of obstetricians agree with abortion when in fact it is 32% are, 8% aren't and 60% we have no idea.You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostI am not going to discuss statistical sampling as its complex topic but trust me its not the same.You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011
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It's problematic as a sample though as its limited to those OBGYNs who would choose to respond to Dr Boylan as he was the one who sent it apparently.
It's reasonable I think to assume there'll be a higher incidence of No's amongst those who auto-bin or otherwise ignore survey requests from him.
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostIt's problematic as a sample though as its limited to those OBGYNs would choose to respond to Dr Boylan as he was the one who sent it apparently.
It's reasonable I think to assume there'll be a higher incidence of No's amongst those who auto-bin or otherwise ignore survey requests from him.
That goes to weighting and I don’t think a survey monkey poll would have such an advanced methodology. It’s a very basic polling sample but that doesn’t invalidate it. The margin of error would be offset by the relatively large sample size surely?You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostIt's problematic as a sample though as its limited to those OBGYNs would choose to respond to Dr Boylan as he was the one who sent it apparently.
It's reasonable I think to assume there'll be a higher incidence of No's amongst those who auto-bin or otherwise ignore survey requests from him.Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Postfwiw statistically about 30 sample size is enough to accurately guage a population unless it's a weird sampling style which this isn't. Most stats assume that 30 is enough. Can't remember the name of the stats rule exactly but want to say it's the central limit theorem.
Sample becomes more bell shaped as random variables are added etc.
As you say things get difficult with skewed distributions etc.
Under a sample of 30 you're getting into student t-distribution but at a sample of this size relative to the population(question is randomness of course) it should be fairly representative of the underlying population.
That'll be 5/5 marks thank you
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McHughs is a very good offie in that they always have a stable stream of Helles and other top rank German beers and great wines. But I dont like the vibe in there for the last year or more.
Theres one guy there who looks like Shakespere who started a couple years back and he was selling his own craft beers in the shop(still might be) but he has the air of judgement about him the whole time re what your buying.
I think there is a battle for top spot going on with the guy with the slight English lilt.
The straw that broke the camels back was when they started pulling up the shutters at 12.35 Sunday instead of 12.30 which is maddening when you pull in 12:28 and need to be back for the 1pm Navan. So a self imposed 4 month ban on the place went into effect some time back. I was able to overlook the overly wet floor(far to wet and a smelly water bucket too like there is a battle of wills going on to see who changes the water, both parties holding out valiantly at the expense of the customers nostrells. So I was really looking for another excuse after this before imposing thee ban because im a fair guy like that.
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Originally posted by eamonhonda View PostThat's my view. You need to respect it. And no name calling haha!
Joking aside I see where youre coming from, but Jack isn't a good example due to the content of his posts and the hate driven agenda that comes with it. People are passionate and this is a massive referendum that really means a lot to women and people surrounded by women. It's gonna boil over now and then. No harm someone getting told to fuck off now and then, they'll get over it.
You're the goodest of eggs Eamo.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostSent that to Brian on the WhatsApp group we have (anonymized obv - no user name) and he asked me to thank you.
I enjoyed his class to be fair, open book exam makes a lot of sense and should be used more imo.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostAh no I kept it very vague - only my username shown. Did the open book thing this year for first time except it was open everything - mobile, laptop etc. Just put a restriction that no-one was allowed to plagiarise from any source.
Brian hasn't really changed his exam in years except for some slight tweaks. 10 of us just met up, split up the work based on his past exam papers, all wrote a question or collaborated on a longer question, collated it and brought in a copy each.
Everybody gets through it unscathed with a fraction of the work.
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Hmm she quotes the law correctly but she says she went to UK in 2016. Giving her at most very late November 2016 to still be eligible also she must currently intend to return home within that 18 month period (at this stage her plans should be quite clear for the next month or so). Quite likely electoral fraud https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...tion-1.3497457
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostHmm she quotes the law correctly but she says she went to UK in 2016. Giving her at most very late November 2016 to still be eligible also she must currently intend to return home within that 18 month period (at this stage her plans should be quite clear for the next month or so). Quite likely electoral fraud https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...tion-1.3497457
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Originally posted by NewApproach View PostElectoral fraud or not (I’m not getting into the argument), I fail to see how any rational person could think there is anything more than a minuscule likelihood of people traveling to Ireland to vote having an impact on the final referendum result.
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostHmm she quotes the law correctly but she says she went to UK in 2016. Giving her at most very late November 2016 to still be eligible also she must currently intend to return home within that 18 month period (at this stage her plans should be quite clear for the next month or so). Quite likely electoral fraud https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...tion-1.3497457
On the other hand my more cynical opinion is that you're fully aware that #HometoVote is more likely to be primarily Yes voters.
That immediately raises my suspicions that preventing a No voter like the person in this article from voting would merely be collateral damage, as preventing the #homethevote campaign in its entirety would be far more advantageous for the No side, in turn leading to what would be a big win for the No side.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostSurely people making the decision to travel home will want to change things?airport, lol
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Originally posted by brady23 View PostMy non-cynical opinion is that having read a lot of the discussions you have been involved in is that although I think your infatuation with the #hometovote has reached a point of complete ridiculousness at this stage, I recognise the balance of sharing an article of #HometoVoteNo potentially "breaking the law".
On the other hand my more cynical opinion is that you're fully aware that #HometoVote is more likely to be primarily Yes voters.
That immediately raises my suspicions that preventing a No voter like the person in this article from voting would merely be collateral damage, as preventing the #homethevote campaign in its entirety would be far more advantageous for the No side, in turn leading to what would be a big win for the No side.
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostHmm she quotes the law correctly but she says she went to UK in 2016. Giving her at most very late November 2016 to still be eligible also she must currently intend to return home within that 18 month period (at this stage her plans should be quite clear for the next month or so). Quite likely electoral fraud https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...tion-1.3497457Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostThe 15th Amendment was decided by just over 9,000 votes it could be that tight.
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Originally posted by luckforsome View Post...Whatever the outcome of the vote, will you agree with the decision...Not that you agree with the decision, but how the decision came about...Like Trump with the presidential election...
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Originally posted by NewApproach View PostHow much of a swing, in terms of absolute numbers, do you think people flying to Ireland from elsewhere who fall foul of the relevant conditions of the Electoral Act will have?
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All I ever remember when it comes to the t-distribution is it was developed by a lad who worked in Guinness in Dublin and published under the pen name 'Student'.
Another researcher at Guinness had previously published a paper containing trade secrets of the Guinness brewery. To prevent further disclosure of confidential information, Guinness prohibited its employees from publishing any papers regardless of the contained information. However, after pleading with the brewery and explaining that his mathematical and philosophical conclusions were of no possible practical use to competing brewers, he (William Sealy Gosset) was allowed to publish them, but under a pseudonym ("Student"), to avoid difficulties with the rest of the staff.Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostWell I was trying to show balance by showing the above in that it can harm both sides. Also people should bare in mind maybe it favours your opinion this time and so you dont care but really we should be playing the long game with the integrity of our elections.
You must realise at this stage Jack that your reputation precedes you when it comes to deciphering your true feelings on a topic.
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostHard to say but if for example eamonhondas prediction of near 100% vote yes it could swing low five figures.
As an aside, what proportion of those who are travelling here to vote are you assuming aren't eligible?
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostI will accept the decision but will be committed to another vote as soon as possible and it been at the fore of every general election campaign. Gut feeling is Yes wins at about 55% of the vote. If no loses we are going to have a huge proportion of the population really really upset with the main parties we could see the rise of a true social conservative force in Ireland. Don't get the President Trump comparsion.
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Originally posted by NewApproach View PostSo you reckon there'll be over ~10,000 flying home to vote who also aren't eligible to do so, they'll all vote yes, and the vote will be carried by less the aggregate number of people travelling to Ireland to vote who aren't eligible to do so. Quite a series of events
As an aside, what proportion of those who are travelling here to vote are you assuming aren't eligible?
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostI didn't say that. I've no idea how the vote would break down maybe they will all vote no and it will swing the other way. I just want the integrity of the system to be maintained.
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Originally posted by NewApproach View PostThat's grand but there's a difference between a lack of integrity which could actually affect the result and a notional 'lack of integrity' (distinct from an innocent oversight) that will almost certainly have no bearing on the result whatsoever.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post@brady our WhatsApp chat has now descended into whether Adam from Man Vs Food is either the greatest or second greatest person alive, so I guess your identity is safe for now.
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Originally posted by jack90210 View PostI will accept the decision but will be committed to another vote as soon as possible and it been at the fore of every general election campaign.
Originally posted by luckforsome View Post...Duck all the useless chat...Lads, is it Yanny or Laurel FFS...
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...01857486959603
I have to ask how you got yourself invited to a gangbang. You said 50 couples,you mentioned before you're single yeah? Did you and a fuck buddy team up?
No one else asked so I will!Last edited by darwinatemyhamster; 16-05-18, 19:49.
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Originally posted by luckforsome View Post...Duck all the useless chat...Lads, is it Yanny or Laurel FFS...
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...01857486959603
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I'm on the yes side despite the OTT name calling and overreaction by middle aged men with sand in their gee. I've seen people called scum for merely saying they are voting NO. wtf. Obviously not enough to change my mind but enough for me to understand how other undecided voters might. Pity I won't be here to vote but sure I'm confident of a YES... In the last week it's time to mobilise the young yes voters and stop with the pointless angry debate, too late. Get out and vote and get your younger friends to do likewise. Better use of your energy
BBC4 now is quite good
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Originally posted by Mike Bullocks View PostI'm on the yes side despite the OTT name calling and overreaction by middle aged men with sand in their gee. I've seen people called scum for merely saying they are voting NO. wtf. Obviously not enough to change my mind but enough for me to understand how other undecided voters might. Pity I won't be here to vote but sure I'm confident of a YES... In the last week it's time to mobilise the young yes voters and stop with the pointless angry debate, too late. Get out and vote and get your younger friends to do likewise. Better use of your energy
BBC4 now is quite good
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Originally posted by darwinatemyhamster View Post
Laurel FFS!
I have to ask how you got yourself invited to a gangbang. You said 50 couples,you mentioned before you're single yeah? Did you and a fuck buddy team up?
No one else asked so I will!
...oh and no...So there are about 200 people going...50 couples, then 50 single men (one of which is me), and 50 women... it'll be good crack...,€13 a ticket, lots of drinks specials as well...It's actually looking like a really good weekend...Have a 1st date on Sunday , and potentially a 4th date with someone on Friday...Ended up with a spare Ed Sheeran ticket, so think I'm gonna ask the girl I had been seeing...
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Originally posted by Mike Bullocks View PostI'm on the yes side despite the OTT name calling and overreaction by middle aged men with sand in their gee. I've seen people called scum for merely saying they are voting NO. wtf. Obviously not enough to change my mind but enough for me to understand how other undecided voters might. Pity I won't be here to vote but sure I'm confident of a YES... In the last week it's time to mobilise the young yes voters and stop with the pointless angry debate, too late. Get out and vote and get your younger friends to do likewise. Better use of your energy
BBC4 now is quite good
It goes both ways.
I can estimate his age as he didn't realise she was alone, he realised fairly fucking sharpish. The prick tried to justify his comments as 'emotions getting the better of him' once he realised he wasn't free to bully a woman on her own.
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Originally posted by darwinatemyhamster View PostMy wife has Yes badges on her bag, in Aldi last week she was called a 'baby murdering bitch' by a guy in his late fifties I'd guess.
It goes both ways.
I can estimate his age as he didn't realise she was alone, he realised fairly fucking sharpish. The prick tried to justify his comments as 'emotions getting the better of him' once he realised he wasn't free to bully a woman on her own.
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostI got called a fucking murderer today, my first day with my repeal badge.Originally posted by darwinatemyhamster View PostMy wife has Yes badges on her bag, in Aldi last week she was called a 'baby murdering bitch' by a guy in his late fifties I'd guess.
It goes both ways.
I can estimate his age as he didn't realise she was alone, he realised fairly fucking sharpish. The prick tried to justify his comments as 'emotions getting the better of him' once he realised he wasn't free to bully a woman on her own.
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