Originally posted by Kayroo
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Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostThis is exactly the right tone, unifying.Originally posted by SatNav View PostNot All Hero's wear capes??
My dad just over shingles, assuming after a red banner on his TV emergency announcement. And he assuming a lock down. That was utter PR fucking knob
Are you angry that all the panic shopping looks a bit silly now.
Seriously though listen to what he was saying
We are heading for minimum of 15000 people infected and somewhere north of 1K dying over the next 6 weeks.
He is speaking to us as a nation on our national day asking us to pull together and do the things we are being asked to do to help. Explaining that its going to be rough but the government will do everything it can to help economically. He is asking us all to take personal responsibility, to pay attention to and follow the the simple messages from the HSE and to stop spreading up rumors and gossip.Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by dobby View Post
This is exactly why I didnt post earlier that he was making a speech. Satnav, wherever you're getting your info, stop using that source cos they're clearly muppets and you're a muppet buying into nonsense.
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Originally posted by Kayroo View PostCalm down Michelle. A lockdown wouldn't help your father. I presume he is self-isolating anyway. He is locked down. Whatever limited interaction he has now would be the same as in any possible lockdown. Food deliveries the only main interaction, no other human contact.
I hope your father is ok. My mother is in a very high risk group too so I share your worry.
My dad and mam are worriers. That man panicked the whole country for 30 mins before the announcement which said nothing that we didn't previously know.Her sky-ness
© 5starpool
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View PostThis is great advice, especially in development where its easy to underplay how much we actually communicate face to face and how important the ad hoc chats we have are.Low fee Euro/UK money transfer, 1st transfer free through my referral
https://transferwise.com/u/bfa0e
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Originally posted by SatNav View PostWould you ever fuck off. My dad who is recovering from shingles and a heart condition rang me when he saw emergency Announcement coming and he hoped this was the lockdown as he's, so stressed.
I'm on paid leave I'm fine my parents, are high risk so go fuck yourself
I'll let the abuse slide since I like ya and you seem quite high strung right now.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakI just registered to volunteer with the HSE. Not sure how efficient they will be in reverting to me as I am not a medical person but I don't feel I can in good conscious sit back and harvest likes on twitter for my garden furniture exploits if I could be otherwise helping out in a terrible situation.
You could build them some stuff.
Or more likely, do contact tracing, which is an absolutely critical activity that doesn't need any medical training."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by SatNav View PostHe just told the country that more of us will die, or get very sick but don't panic.
My dad and mam are worriers. That man panicked the whole country for 30 mins before the announcement which said nothing that we didn't previously know.
Worrying times for anyone that panics
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People are great, the country/world has adapted to this pretty quickly.
Last edited by Denny Crane; 17-03-20, 23:50.
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Originally posted by balfejohn View PostYour right young lady all the older people are very worried due to been told we might have 50 thousand deaths
Worrying times for anyone that panics
Also, 20000 deaths is now a "good outcome" for the UK according to evidence given by the chief scientific advisor to a committee today.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostPeople are great, the country/world has adapted to this so quickly.
Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt
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Originally posted by SatNav View PostHe just told the country that more of us will die, or get very sick but don't panic.
My dad and mam are worriers. That man panicked the whole country for 30 mins before the announcement which said nothing that we didn't previously know.
I particularly liked his little call to teenagers and kids. A very nice touch on a great speech.People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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15000 infected by the end of the month means a 33% increase per day. That means in 35 days with the same 33% growth the whole country would be infected without a major lockdown. A 5% death rate is possible given the collapse of the health system this could cause. I think the government is doing a good job but they need to close things down much much faster.
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Originally posted by SatNav View PostApologies for outbursts lately
.( I'm going through a mid life crises genuinely)
I hope nobody took offence as I do appear as a completely different SatNav. I'm just an angry impatient wagon lately and sorry if I offended anyone with my views.
The good times will be back
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Originally posted by SatNav View PostApologies for outbursts lately
.( I'm going through a mid life crises genuinely)
I hope nobody took offence as I do appear as a completely different SatNav. I'm just an angry impatient wagon lately and sorry if I offended anyone with my views.
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Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has brought back a leading communications guru to manage the Government’s public information campaign on the Coronavirus crisis.
My sister it a nurse. Working with severely Ill patients. She was nurse for four patients Monday night on her latest 12 hour shift. She protested with the sister about the lack any new protective procedures or equipment before the shift began.
One of her patients was put into isolation as a suspected case early into the shift.
She finished her shift and went home to her children without any information if the patient was Covid. No test, instruction for herself.
While a well delivered speech "never will so many depend on so few" and other plagiarized soundbites banged together by some PR guru is drooled upon here.
I see little confidence being taken from it by those few he spoke so eloquently of.
The reality is with at least four weeks lead time on what is going to happen. Those so few are not getting the equipment, procedures and leadership needed facing into this imminent catastrophe.
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Guest
Originally posted by balfejohn View PostNo
Leo said last week there could be up to 85000 deaths from this
That set panic into every old person in the state
Wife looks after a lot of old people and they were crying and worrying after hearing that
Well you can be assured, it won't wipe out between 1% and 1.8% of our population. We won't even get close to that.
Perhaps by end of year if it was to reemerge in the winter, you could see an infection rate of 1% in the population overall, reaching that 50k mark, with a pessimistic death rate of 10% ie 3x WHO estimate.
Effectively, a complete disaster would look like 5k deaths from the disease in Ireland by the end of the year.
Anything above 1,500 people dead from the government estimate of 15k for the month would be getting into the disaster area too.
The government is quoting 15k cases by the end of the month with a testing rate similar to Italy at present.
A little over 31k Italians have tested positive, proportionally Leo's estimate is analogous to saying 180k Italians would test positive over a similar timeframe which doesn't appear to be the case or the trend in Italy at all.
My personal opinion is we won't hit the 15k mark by the end of the month. It's a somewhat pessimistic estimate which if we end up below, may offer encouragement we have the disease under control.
That said, even if I'm wrong about that 15k being an under estimation, I'm not wrong about 50k-85k dead. We won't get anywhere even close to those figures.
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Originally posted by SatNav View PostHe just told the country that more of us will die, or get very sick but don't panic.
My dad and mam are worriers. That man panicked the whole country for 30 mins before the announcement which said nothing that we didn't previously know.
They are staying home for 12 weeks. My brother seeing visit, but will drop off grocery shopping as he is a policeman and his wife is an A&E nurse. He is also doing this for my 92 year old gran.
Don't panic them more than they need to be. Just help them. If they stay home they should be fine. Support them and get them what they need to get through this with minimal contact. If you are all staying home you should be fine.
Ride the storm, we will get through this ❤️Last edited by MrsFlushdraw; 18-03-20, 18:58.
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Originally posted by nicnicnic View Posthttps://www.independent.ie/world-new...-39051776.html
My sister it a nurse. Working with severely Ill patients. She was nurse for four patients Monday night on her latest 12 hour shift. She protested with the sister about the lack any new protective procedures or equipment before the shift began.
One of her patients was put into isolation as a suspected case early into the shift.
She finished her shift and went home to her children without any information if the patient was Covid. No test, instruction for herself.
While a well delivered speech "never will so many depend on so few" and other plagiarized soundbites banged together by some PR guru is drooled upon here.
I see little confidence being taken from it by those few he spoke so eloquently of.
The reality is with at least four weeks lead time on what is going to happen. Those so few are not getting the equipment, procedures and leadership needed facing into this imminent catastrophe.
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Originally posted by Murdrum View PostWell if he said that, he was wrong. I don't recall that but I cant be sure. In the current state of panic, who knows what anyone might have said.
Well you can be assured, it won't wipe out between 1% and 1.8% of our population. We won't even get close to that.
Perhaps by end of year if it was to reemerge in the winter, you could see an infection rate of 1% in the population overall, reaching that 50k mark, with a pessimistic death rate of 10% ie 3x WHO estimate.
Effectively, a complete disaster would look like 5k deaths from the disease in Ireland by the end of the year.
Anything above 1,500 people dead from the government estimate of 15k for the month would be getting into the disaster area too.
The government is quoting 15k cases by the end of the month with a testing rate similar to Italy at present.
A little over 31k Italians have tested positive, proportionally Leo's estimate is analogous to saying 180k Italians would test positive over a similar timeframe which doesn't appear to be the case or the trend in Italy at all.
My personal opinion is we won't hit the 15k mark by the end of the month. It's a somewhat pessimistic estimate which if we end up below, may offer encouragement we have the disease under control.
That said, even if I'm wrong about that 15k being an under estimation, I'm not wrong about 50k-85k dead. We won't get anywhere even close to those figures.
I felt it was wrong to quote it but Leo is known for been a man who likes to go big when he is describing something
All the old people including my parents went into fear mode
This thing is too big to try and gloss over and hopefully it can be maintained to some degree
A lot of shite has been written and a lot more will be written
His speech last night told us what we all know but left a void in my mind that they have a lot more planning to do before we will know how they are going to protect us re job losses and financial help
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Originally posted by nicnicnic View Posthttps://www.independent.ie/world-new...-39051776.html
My sister it a nurse. Working with severely Ill patients. She was nurse for four patients Monday night on her latest 12 hour shift. She protested with the sister about the lack any new protective procedures or equipment before the shift began.
One of her patients was put into isolation as a suspected case early into the shift.
She finished her shift and went home to her children without any information if the patient was Covid. No test, instruction for herself.
While a well delivered speech "never will so many depend on so few" and other plagiarized soundbites banged together by some PR guru is drooled upon here.
I see little confidence being taken from it by those few he spoke so eloquently of.
The reality is with at least four weeks lead time on what is going to happen. Those so few are not getting the equipment, procedures and leadership needed facing into this imminent catastrophe.
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Guest
Originally posted by balfejohn View PostI fully agree with you on all this but on the 6th of March on the front of the independent he said up to 85000 people could die
I felt it was wrong to quote it but Leo is known for been a man who likes to go big when he is describing something
All the old people including my parents went into fear mode
This thing is too big to try and gloss over and hopefully it can be maintained to some degree
A lot of shite has been written and a lot more will be written
His speech last night told us what we all know but left a void in my mind that they have a lot more planning to do before we will know how they are going to protect us re job losses and financial help
More of these types of measures and the spread will be addressed well below any of our estimations:
Originally posted by IT View Post
An infection control experiment that was rolled out in a small Italian community at the start of Europe’s coronavirus crisis has stopped all new infections in the town that was at the centre of the country’s outbreak.
Through testing and retesting of all 3,300 inhabitants of the town of Vò, near Venice, regardless of whether they were exhibiting symptoms, and rigorous quarantining of their contacts once infection was confirmed, health authorities have been able to completely stop the spread of the illness there.
Andrea Crisanti, an infections expert at Imperial College London who is taking part in the Vò project while on sabbatical at the University of Padua, urged countries that have been limiting virus testing, which includes the UK and US, to learn lessons and ramp up the numbers of people being screened.
“In the UK, there are a whole lot of infections that are completely ignored,” Prof Crisanti said. “We were able to contain the outbreak here because we identified and eliminated the ‘submerged’ infections and isolated them,” he said of the Vò approach. “That is what makes the difference.”
‘Test, test, test’
The success underscores the importance of testing and isolating otherwise healthy carriers, an approach that has been strongly endorsed by the World Health Organisation. The WHO this week urged all countries to test aggressively, noting that South Korea and Taiwan were having success in limiting infections by doing so. “Our key message is: test, test, test,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO chief, said on Monday.
Prof Crisanti said the unusual – and, in some ways, accidental – testing experiment in Vò allowed researchers to obtain a full “epidemiological picture” of the disease.
The testing began as a scrambled contingency measure after Italy’s first virus-related death there on February 22nd. It is unclear why northern Italy experienced a surge in cases ahead of other parts of Europe, although Prof Crisanti and others have suggested it may be because of close commercial ties to China.
The first testing round, carried out on the town’s entire population in late February, found 3 per cent of the population infected, though half of the carriers had no symptoms. After isolating all those infected, the second testing round about 10 days later showed the infection rate had dropped to 0.3 per cent.
Importantly, however, this second round identified at least six individuals who had the virus but no symptoms, meaning they could be quarantined. “If they hadn’t been identified, the infection would have resumed,” explained Prof Crisanti.
This is where our resources need to go, increase testing and the improve the speed of results as much as possible.
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Originally posted by balfejohn View PostI fully agree with you on all this but on the 6th of March on the front of the independent he said up to 85000 people could die
I felt it was wrong to quote it but Leo is known for been a man who likes to go big when he is describing something
All the old people including my parents went into fear mode
This thing is too big to try and gloss over and hopefully it can be maintained to some degree
A lot of shite has been written and a lot more will be written
His speech last night told us what we all know but left a void in my mind that they have a lot more planning to do before we will know how they are going to protect us re job losses and financial help
He didn’t “go big” at all in the press conference that lead to that irresponsible reporting from the Irish Independent. Quite the opposite.You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011
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Originally posted by rounders123 View PostNew health and preservation bill coming through. Means Gardai can detain the bolshie anti covidders.
More likely, if they don't like the cut of your jib they would certainly detain you under a pretence. It's a coppers dream.
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Originally posted by Kayroo View PostHe never said up to 85,000 people could die. His answer was nuanced and calm and indicated the accepted uncertainty in how this would play out. The 85,000 number came from the Irish Independent who took the maximum possible figures from a mish-mash of statements he had made. It’s entirely unfair to ascribe that to him.
He didn’t “go big” at all in the press conference that lead to that irresponsible reporting from the Irish Independent. Quite the opposite.
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There are clearly enormous logistical problems in the hospitals especially with supplies of protective equipment and a pep talk like that isn't directly going to solve them.
We can hope that the tone and content of the speech does show that the health services are the priority, that we all appreciate greatly what people like your sister are doing and we will will do what we can to support them over the coming months.
Originally posted by nicnicnic View Posthttps://www.independent.ie/world-new...-39051776.html
My sister it a nurse. Working with severely Ill patients. She was nurse for four patients Monday night on her latest 12 hour shift. She protested with the sister about the lack any new protective procedures or equipment before the shift began.
One of her patients was put into isolation as a suspected case early into the shift.
She finished her shift and went home to her children without any information if the patient was Covid. No test, instruction for herself.
While a well delivered speech "never will so many depend on so few" and other plagiarized soundbites banged together by some PR guru is drooled upon here.
I see little confidence being taken from it by those few he spoke so eloquently of.
The reality is with at least four weeks lead time on what is going to happen. Those so few are not getting the equipment, procedures and leadership needed facing into this imminent catastrophe.Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by balfejohn View PostI didn’t say he went big in his speech to the nation , what I said was he likes to talk up things hence the reference to the speech he gave in the 6th March where he was throwing around figures that hopefully we will never see re the 85000You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011
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Originally posted by hotspur View PostIt's irresponsible not to scare old people into keeping safe.
My dad has just recovered from cancer.
My Mum going to the hairdressers on Monday.
My dad was asking us do you think it’s ok to deliver SVDP food vouchers.
My MIL is in her 80’s and she has gotten the message.
My sister in law who is a nurse talking about going up to see her.
People need a good shake.
My ex employers shop in Hiwth rammed yesterday and many other businesses out there.
The 450,000 number might seem like hyperbole but take 30% increase per day and you get there pretty quick.His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
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anyone here work for stars? account is locked "for security reasons", and i can't unlock it without providing a photo of me and my passport, only my passport is with the Irish authorities still (for my kids passports). there must be like £50 in there so it's not like this is a high risk account. Would love to get it unlocked prior to home games friday night.
Have been firing up party in the meantime and came second in a $5 PLO tournament woohoo! it's going to be all down hill from here no doubt
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Originally posted by hotspur View PostIt's irresponsible not to scare old people into keeping safe.
The best end result for everyone here will be if it falls way under and people are complaining about him over-egging it, will probably have meant the social distancing message was well received.Profit before people.
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Guest
Covid probs hitting me now, badly need a haircut, covid was a faraway problem last time I had one.
Could self administer a blade 1 but not a good look for work
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Guest
Recent research showing that the Chinese estimated mortality rate for Wuhan may set to be revised to 1.4% from their original estimate of 2%-3%
It's true that Covid-19 appears to have a higher infection rate than influenza, approx 2x the infection rate.
However, based on the empirical data that we're seeing, the infection rates are either leveling off or declining in the hardest hit countries ie China, Iran, SK & Italy.
We may see a 30% growth for the next week or so but with the measures in place that will not continue. We're not getting near 10% of the population for the foreseeable future if the measures stay in place.
The biggest fear now is when we start to see the same leveling off and subsequent decline as others, will we continue to be alert in the event of another wave of infections as the year progresses.
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Originally posted by Murdrum View PostRecent research showing that the Chinese estimated mortality rate for Wuhan may set to be revised to 1.4% from their original estimate of 2%-3%
It's true that Covid-19 appears to have a higher infection rate than influenza, approx 2x the infection rate.
However, based on the empirical data that we're seeing, the infection rates are either leveling off or declining in the hardest hit countries ie China, Iran, SK & Italy.
We may see a 30% growth for the next week or so but with the measures in place that will not continue. We're not getting near 10% of the population for the foreseeable future if the measures stay in place.
The biggest fear now is when we start to see the same leveling off and subsequent decline as others, will we continue to be alert in the event of another wave of infections as the year progresses.
I think people thought it was 1% because they were dividing daily infections by deaths on the same day, but you actually need to divide infections 3 weeks ago by deaths today. So sadly, the death rate is 5%.
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Guest
Originally posted by golucky123 View Post
I know Lancet is a top journal but the information is changing so rapidly and it's becoming self evident that a far higher number of cases are going undetected across all regions.
You can see a lot of the most recent preprints here: https://www.researchsquare.com/
Also, Vox with another good vid:
Last edited by Guest; 18-03-20, 10:12.
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Originally posted by Silver-Tiger View PostAnyone any early guesses what this means for Mortgage Interest Rates over the next 12 months?
The era of ZIRP is going to drag on for many years now"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Guest
Didn’t like trumps spiel about bringing companies home and ireland yesterday.
Lot of soothing words about bailouts and not letting companies fail being spoken by world leaders now. Are we confident that there’s going to be a real follow up on this
Thought Leo’s speech was needed last night, still a lot of denial out there.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostCan't imagine any real effect. ECB interest rates are already about 0%, so there's no real changes that could be passed on. I'd say no rises as would be politically impalatable to do that, but no reason for them to fall either. Best guess is no change.
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