Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[ComradeCollie]

Trump about to do a press conference without a teleprompter.

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[Denny Crane]

Yeah, they're being complete dickheads. It's an unconventional approach that undermines every other country.

[Fullof..It]

Ireland is presumably fully screwed if UK follows that approach. As 60% in UK means the same, by default, in Ireland due to lack of restriction on border or travel.

I think when their numbers creep up, they'll bottle it and fall in line with rest of International community.

I hope Im right

[Fullof..It]

How much of UKs postion is Brexit related - we'll do it our way?

They surely cant be that thick? (Although Brexit )

[Theresa]

I think when their numbers creep up, they'll bottle it and fall in line with rest of International community.

I hope Im right

Problem is... it could be a runaway before they make the decision to change... and then they might not even have any options.

[Theresa]

Need to get the Nordies in line asap.

[LuckyLloyd]

If the UK actually go through with that the EU will cut them off in terms of travel. And people will be fully behind it too.

[Fullof..It]

Problem is... it could be a runaway before they make the decision to change... and then they might not even have any options.

True. Timing needs to be fairly snappy

[ComradeCollie]

[Theresa]

If the US deliver on the plans for testing, it'd be pretty damn impressive.

[Guest]

This is where the big difference will be seen: https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/...reland-health/

Changes in testing criteria extended, large increase in testing numbers incoming.

Also US declare a National Emergency

[Fullof..It]

Americans mobilising akin to war footing which Ill give Trump the credit for.

Once they start the proper testing numbers will be crazy

[ComradeCollie]

They showed 'drive in' testing in New Rochelle earlier on CNN. Have a particular interest in that spot as one of my sisters lives 2km from there in Pelham.

[Lazare]

Expect a big spike in confirmed cases over the next few days. They've updated the testing criteria to anyone with symptoms.

[Guest]

Channel 4 pretty bleak on UK preparedness there

[ComradeCollie]

Managed to snaffle some jax roll today in Aldi on the third day of trying. Only 2 ply, but needs must.

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[Fullof..It]

Channel 4 pretty bleak on UK preparedness there

what programme was that, anywhere to watch?

[Lazare]

No audience tonight on the late late, got a good lol out of this...

[hotspur]

There are people who seem to think that because the current government measures only say to the 29th of March that this is the length of time it will be.

I don't know about anyone else but I've been feeling fairly angry over the past 10 days or so at the stupidity of certain people. And I had made such good progress over recent years with that

[The Situation]

No audience tonight on the late late, got a good lol out of this...

What, surely the demand isn't that high for late late tickets is it?

[Ed]

That begs a question - the AirBnB for the place we're looking at is €2,500. Can you negotiate on there? I was thinking a nice-non pushy email to the owner might reduce the price a bit given his place would obviously be empty otherwise.

You can definitely negotiate, well worth emailing highlighting you're looking for an extended stay and what sort of rate they could offer.

Could get them to take it offline for the holiday and offer cash on arrival which would save them on Airbnb fees/tax.

Have done those for an upcoming trip (which isn't looking optimistic at the moment)

[Guest]

There are people who seem to think that because the current government measures only say to the 29th of March that this is the length of time it will be.

I don't know about anyone else but I've been feeling fairly angry over the past 10 days or so at the stupidity of certain people. And I had made such good progress over recent years with that

From what I can see secondary school kids are treating it like a holiday. A few people at work planning a big weekend /going on stags (though not abroad)etc
Lots of should I cancel my holiday to (insert country you should obviously not go on holiday to) questions on boards

[ComradeCollie]

If I was under 40 I'd be party on dude Unfortunately I'm more worried about my prescription drugs being available in the medium term. They're all 'made' in the EU and mostly in Eire, though I doubt some of the stuff needed doesn't come from either China or India.

[hotspur]

So imagining it gets bad and to the aforequoted Italian triaging and you're 40 with asthma which you never even need to use an inhaler for. When they ask do you indicate that you do indeed have asthma?

I think I would but am wondering about others.

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[ArmaniJeans]

So imagining it gets bad and to the aforequoted Italian triaging and you're 40 with asthma which you never even need to use an inhaler for. When they ask do you indicate that you do indeed have asthma?

I think I would but am wondering about others.

Is lying to doctors not a standard thing everyone does?

"The odd glass of wine at weekends and an occasional cigar. Everything in moderation, I think I must have a slow metabolism".

[Strewelpeter]

Lad on Newsnight now speaking on Trump's reaction to Covid and not really to be taken seriously

WTaF

[ComradeCollie]

So imagining it gets bad and to the aforequoted Italian triaging and you're 40 with asthma which you never even need to use an inhaler for. When they ask do you indicate that you do indeed have asthma?

I think I would but am wondering about others.

Or tell them that you're bald? I distinctly remember lying to a nurse in an ICU on my weekly alcohol intake as 80 units; She wrote it down as 8, and I corrected her by an order of magnitude. The 80 was a lie, as I'd been on a minimum of 120 for years.

[Guest]

Lots of should I cancel my holiday to (insert country you should obviously not go on holiday to) questions on boards

It's moving so fast though. 2 days ago I was planning to go to the US. Now that seems absurd.

[Strewelpeter]

So imagining it gets bad and to the aforequoted Italian triaging and you're 40 with asthma which you never even need to use an inhaler for. When they ask do you indicate that you do indeed have asthma?

I think I would but am wondering about others.

For the greater good it might seem correct to tell the truth but anyone who did would be a fool to themselves and their families.

If they are tagging people based on a checklist without assessing what they have in front of them they can GTFO IMO they are not doing their job properly.

[LuckyLloyd]

There are people who seem to think that because the current government measures only say to the 29th of March that this is the length of time it will be.

I don't know about anyone else but I've been feeling fairly angry over the past 10 days or so at the stupidity of certain people. And I had made such good progress over recent years with that

I’m sitting in my apartment listening to the din of revelry in Toners across from me and wondering what the fuck is wrong with people. Even if you feel young and strong this is not something to roll the dice with, particularly because of the societal need to limit transmission. And it’s why ultimately the government will need to enforce lockdown and make it so.

[RichieM]

So imagining it gets bad and to the aforequoted Italian triaging and you're 40 with asthma which you never even need to use an inhaler for. When they ask do you indicate that you do indeed have asthma?

I think I would but am wondering about others.

Since it hits the respiratory system the hardest I certainly would - pretty important information for the doctors to know.

I would then hope that the health service didn’t collapse or the doctors I know can keep my name off the black list if it ends up all going to shit.

[hotspur]

Are you mad?

You've a 95%+ chance of surviving if you get the ventilator vs a 5% mortality chance. You've close to a 100% chance of mortality if you get black tagged. Of course you take the 95% chance. Why would you care if someone else has a 98% vs 2% survival vs mortality if they get your ventilator? Your purpose is to survive not to sit there and painfully die due to some line that has been drawn in the sand for the overall health of the population. It's just you it matters for, we sort ourselves out always as we're as entitled to our 95% as anyone else is to their chances.

Apart from the ethics (and it's clear we are vastly different on this) where are you getting those percentage figures from? I have been wondering recently what the size of the difference is on average in those who have asthma. Your figures are clearly nonsense, but I wonder what the figures actually are?

As for the rest of the post, where to begin? I'm glad I like you or I'd be firing both barrels.

[Lazare]

'Snake eyes?'

'Snake eyes?'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkRl8fwkaqw

[Lazare]

Apart from the ethics (and it's clear we are vastly different on this) where are you getting those percentage figures from? I have been wondering recently what the size of the difference is on average in those who have asthma. Your figures are clearly nonsense, but I wonder what the figures actually are?

As for the rest of the post, where to begin? I'm glad I like you or I'd be firing both barrels.

Would be curious to hear your reasoning.

I'm lying to them in that situation, for my family.

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[hotspur]

If I am reading it right Hitch you are saying that you're not 900% more important than another random human, you're possibly 50% more important, and as it gets closer you are unquestionably more important.

I get that selfishness is within us. I also think that a vital aspect of our life's work is to overcome it and rid ourselves of the delusion that we are more important than others.

@Lazare, doing it for one's family, while natural, is the same thing imo. Your family is not more important than another person's family.

Ethics only breaks down here if we don't cherish ethics enough to begin with.

Edit: On another note, I was reading an English language Italian news site and it said shops were starting home deliveries that didn't usually like butchers, fishmongers, and gelaterias.

[nicnicnic]

Day started with finding out The players Championship was cancelled, had been announced it'd play out closed to fans before I'd went to bed.

Was on Si Woo Kim at 485's on machine, he'd shot -7 in wrong half the draw on day one and was into around 25's. That was slightly annoying, prob 2 on a 10 scale.

The realisation I couldn't self isolate vegging out for the weekend supping wine and watching 20 hours of golf as planned was off the scale devastating.





Jack on the Masters being pulled. Listening to 1.25 to 1.55 of the clip, I think he needs to get tested. Pray for Jack.

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[Guest]

Since it hits the respiratory system the hardest I certainly would - pretty important information for the doctors to know.

I would then hope that the health service didn’t collapse or the doctors I know can keep my name off the black list if it ends up all going to shit.

Of what I have read in the past few days, it appears the mortality rate for those with respiratory issues is actually less or similar to those with diabetes, hypertension and cardiovascular disease.

I understand it attacks the respiratory system but it seems respiratory issues are not the highest risk category.
Anecdotally that may be somewhat influenced by the fact tha those suffering from cardiovascular disease and perhaps Type 2 diabetes/high blood pressure may be at a lower baseline level of health than many with respiratory issues such as asthma.

That said, so many people have hypertension without even knowing, estimates are 30% and above. If that is a significant underlying risk factor, it's a tad worrying.

Also on a side note, I was flicking through the numbers and I suspect Italy may end up as the hardest hit first world country, they're just so old.
Completely underprepared, slow to react, limited facilities and over 23% of it's population is >65 years of age.
For context Japan is over 25% while the somewhat worrying number is Iran where it's only 6% yet they are struggling quite badly.

[ComradeCollie]

My suggestion is that we just make more ventilators.

I'm pretty confident that your pals in China are doing that right now. Think in Europe only the Germans would have the capability to manufacture anything that actually works.

[Guest]

The genetic material of some viruses is packaged not only in a capsid protein, but also in a membrane called an envelope, which is typically made of lipids. It interacts with host cells during the infection process and helps dodge immune attacks. Viruses with envelopes are more fragile and vulnerable to adverse conditions, Nathanson says, including, for example, summertime heat and dryness.

A 2018 study in Scientific Reports supports the idea. Virologist Sandeep Ramalingam at the University of Edinburgh and his colleagues analyzed the presence and seasonality of nine viruses—some enveloped, some not—in more than 36,000 respiratory samples taken over 6.5 years from people who sought medical care in their region. “Enveloped viruses have a very, very definite seasonality,”

Will SARS-CoV-2, which has an envelope, prove fragile in spring and summer, when absolute and relative humidity climb? The most notorious of the other coronavirus diseases, SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), offer no clues. SARS emerged in late 2002 and was driven out of the human population in the summer of 2003 through intensive containment efforts. MERS sporadically jumps from camels to humans and has caused outbreaks in hospitals, but never widespread human-to-human transmission like COVID-19. Neither virus circulated for long enough, on a wide enough scale, for any seasonal cycle to emerge.

Four human coronaviruses that cause colds and other respiratory diseases are more revealing. Three have “marked winter seasonality,” with few or no detections in the summer, molecular biologist Kate Templeton, also at the University of Edinburgh, concluded in a 2010 analysis of 11,661 respiratory samples collected between 2006 and 2009. These three viruses essentially behave like the flu.

That does not mean COVID-19 will as well. The virus can clearly transmit in warm, humid climates: Singapore has more than 175 cases. Two new papers published on preprint servers this week come to opposite conclusions. One, co-authored by Lipsitch, looked at COVID-19 spread in 19 provinces across China, which ranged from cold and dry to tropical, and found sustained transmission everywhere. The second study concludes that sustained transmission appears to occur only in specific bands of the globe that have temperatures between 5°C and 11°C and 47% to 70% relative humidity.

In the final analysis, there’s a balancing act between environmental factors and a population’s immune system. The other coronaviruses have long been around, so a certain part of the population has immunity, which may help exile those viruses under unfavorable conditions. But that’s not true for COVID-19. “Even though there might be a big seasonal decline, if enough susceptible people are around, it can counter that and continue for a long time,” Martinez says. Lipsitch doesn’t think the virus will go poof in April either. Any slowdown “is expected to be modest, and not enough to stop transmission on its own,” he wrote in a recent blog post.

Some indicators of potential seasonality which along with the stronger measures will hopefully get the virus under control over the next few months.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19

[ComradeCollie]

Have developed such a crush on Jurgen Klopp in recent weeks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUuxLeaAlD4

[ComradeCollie]

Copper Face Jacks nightclub has closed until March 29

The Catholic Church has suspended the obligation to be physically present at Mass on Sundays and Holy Days, including St Patrick's day

[Lazare]

@Lazare, doing it for one's family, while natural, is the same thing imo. Your family is not more important than another person's family.

Ethics only breaks down here if we don't cherish ethics enough to begin with.

Telling the truth isn't altruism when you have dependents, imho.

Choosing to leave a partner behind to struggle financially, and explain the death of a parent to small children because of your worldview is, imo, also ethically wrong.

Maybe you can weigh up which decision causes less hurt, but they're both bad decisions ethically. Again, imo.

[elbows]

https://twitter.com/jadedcreative/status/1238081405713821698?s=21

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[Emmet]

[Emmet]

Have developed such a crush on Jurgen Klopp in recent weeks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUuxLeaAlD4

A refreshing return to 'normality' instead of the bullshit dealers of the last couple of years. Truly disappointing that his completely rational, logical and calm point is refreshing tbh.

[Mellor]

This is a great (very long) consolidated analysis of the numbers:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

Haven’t read it all. It mostly seems to be worldometers graphs and the random 100/200 case sync’d projections.
At one point near the start he take the 1 day total case increase and and forecasts assuming the rate is constant per country. That’s beyond terrible from a stats point of view.

The point about it being more widespread than we think is valid. But it’s also kinda moot. If twice as many people are secretly infected across all populations, then future estimates are off by a factor of 2. But inversely, the hospitalisation and mortality rates are also half. The net effect is the same number of deaths.

Unfortunately, until a another country (likely Italy or Iran) approaches Hubei province levels. We don’t really know where the trend line sits.

Australia currently sitting at 199 case. Lots of graphs show 200 cases as the point when numbers started to climb consistently. On the positive side I think geographically (area, density, distance) it makes more sense to think of individual Australian states as “countries”. On the negative side, most cases (112 of them) are in NSW where I am. And most of those are around Sydney. Again where I am.

[Guest]

Agree that the forecast on the one day growth rate is bad.

Disagree about the second point. 2x is the best case scenario. Governments and the population at large need to be awake to the fact that they have 2x to 10x the number of cases that they think they do, and act accordingly. The hospitalisation and morality rates aren't half, they're just shifted forward in time slightly.
In order for a health service to have any chance its imperative the 'new cases per day' is maximised as early as possible on an exponential curve with an exponent of 1.3-1.4 in the early stages, by taking action as early as possible. In order for that exponent to be reduced day-by-day they also need to make sure that the measures are pretty draconian. If you made it Christmas Day everywhere in the world for 2 weeks we'd be sorted.

[Guest]

Agree that the forecast on the one day growth rate is bad.

Disagree about the second point. 2x is the best case scenario. Governments and the population at large need to be awake to the fact that they have 2x to 10x the number of cases that they think they do, and act accordingly. The hospitalisation and morality rates aren't half, they're just shifted forward in time slightly.
In order for a health service to have any chance its imperative the 'new cases per day' is maximised as early as possible on an exponential curve with an exponent of 1.3-1.4 in the early stages, by taking action as early as possible. In order for that exponent to be reduced day-by-day they also need to make sure that the measures are pretty draconian. If you made it Christmas Day everywhere in the world for 2 weeks we'd be sorted.

The draconian measures are somewhat required not because they are the most impactful, rather they may be the only measure given our constraints.

SK have maintained the virus without those measures because they have a capacity >400% that of ours not to mention some of the highest survival rates across a multitude of conditions.

I don't believe draconian measures are the best method to deploy in an ideal scenario but I believe given our limitations they will be somewhat necessary. On the continuum something like SK <---------------IRE----> China

[Denny Crane]

So imagining it gets bad and to the aforequoted Italian triaging and you're 40 with asthma which you never even need to use an inhaler for. When they ask do you indicate that you do indeed have asthma?

I think I would but am wondering about others.

Depends. Is there a fat man beside your hospital trolley?

[Mellor]

Disagree about the second point. 2x is the best case scenario. Governments and the population at large need to be awake to the fact that they have 2x to 10x the number of cases that they think they do, and act accordingly. The hospitalisation and morality rates aren't half, they're just shifted forward in time slightly.

That’s only if cases are blown out in a single small population.
If everywhere, ie. China, Italy, Iran etc have thousands of undiagnosed cases too, then the global mortality rate is lower than we think.

Also, you’re incorrectly assume that undiagnosed cases are all active. Most cases will be mild, not require hospitalisation, and resolve on their own. This is even moe likely to apply in undiagnosed cases. Which means the recovered % should be higher in the closed case statistics.
The amount by which it is higher is directly proportional to the amount if undiagnosed cases there were.

[Denny Crane]

I’m sitting in my apartment listening to the din of revelry in Toners across from me and wondering what the fuck is wrong with people. Even if you feel young and strong this is not something to roll the dice with, particularly because of the societal need to limit transmission. And it’s why ultimately the government will need to enforce lockdown and make it so.

Ah you're only around the corner. HU4Beans in a couple a of weeks? Gingerman only had a handful of people outside it compared to the normal bumper crowd.

[Fullof..It]

Haven’t read it all. It mostly seems to be worldometers graphs and the random 100/200 case sync’d projections.
At one point near the start he take the 1 day total case increase and and forecasts assuming the rate is constant per country. That’s beyond terrible from a stats point of view.

The point about it being more widespread than we think is valid. But it’s also kinda moot. If twice as many people are secretly infected across all populations, then future estimates are off by a factor of 2. But inversely, the hospitalisation and mortality rates are also half. The net effect is the same number of deaths.

Unfortunately, until a another country (likely Italy or Iran) approaches Hubei province levels. We don’t really know where the trend line sits.

Australia currently sitting at 199 case. Lots of graphs show 200 cases as the point when numbers started to climb consistently. On the positive side I think geographically (area, density, distance) it makes more sense to think of individual Australian states as “countries”. On the negative side, most cases (112 of them) are in NSW where I am. And most of those are around Sydney. Again where I am.

Hard not to get tangled up with the numbers and lose sight of message.

Intervene and do it early.

On another note, levels of group think amongst health experts is UK frightening. I thought there would be a much more balanced opinion.