Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[Guest]

Yeah, it's done.

I think Trippie made a good point. Lots of Europeans on here with a Eurocentric notion of what 'a good US President' should look like. Which is generally an unelectable candidate in US terms (Sanders, Warren).

Biden isn't much. But he's probably the best they have right now.

I have a mate living here, she's a staunch Republican and her Dad is a Democrat.

She thinks that Europeans(husband is French) have this misplaced sense that American's are a nation of polar opposites which she believes -being from a purple state-couldn't be further from the truth.

She isn't a fan of Trump; Rubio was her choice but party politics supersedes the candidate in her view. She simply believes in a Republican agenda.

She thinks Biden is a clown but said he's the opposition she doesn't want to win. Laughed at me when I said I liked Warren for the nomination. She'd welcome a race against Sanders or Warren.

[Tar.Aldarion]

There was somebody wearing a mask at my dance studio, while they did a dance class for an hour...

[Strewelpeter]

First Irish death today.

It seems to have been in Naas hospital.

[Dice75]

Nice to see Diego simeone ,from corona virus hotspot Madrid, spitting away on the sideline literally every time the camera cuts to him, lovely stuff.

Few thousands fans spittle flying through the Anfield air now too....

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[Dice75]

Strange that PSG game played behind closed door yet this one not alright.

[CHDad]

Liverpool not even waiting for next season to be found out.

[Strewelpeter]

Don't expect to be able to avoid picking up the virus in the medium to long term (6 months) but for the practical reason of having to care for a 90 year old I have to do my best to avoid picking it up as best as I can.

Considering that, I'm supposed to be going to stay in a hotel up North for a couple of nights this weekend, restaurant and maybe spa just chillin and going for walks.
Yay or nay?
Gig in the NCH yay or nay?

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[dobby]

Don't expect to be able to avoid picking up the virus in the medium to long term (6 months) but for the practical reason of having to care for a 90 year old I have to do my best to avoid picking it up as best as I can.

Considering that, I'm supposed to be going to stay in a hotel up North for a couple of nights this weekend, restaurant and maybe spa just chillin and going for walks.
Yay or nay?
Gig in the NCH yay or nay?

Hotel yes. Gig no. Not for a man of your age

[Guest]

Sad way to end season for Liverpool.
That’s their last home game this season, hope they are awarded the league

[CHDad]

Juve player has tested positive now so that's the champions league postponed.

[LuckyLloyd]

A cohort of posters on boards saying they know a similar announcement is coming here on Friday. Impossible to tell with the noise ratio and not knowing any of the posters though if it's all just trolling.

Opr

Schools definitely closing anyway. WHO declaring a pandemic and EU countries going into lockdown makes it more likely that we see an aggressive containment effort kick in.

We were always going to do this. I wish we had gotten a head start on it as it would have saved a couple of lives in the end but so be it.

[LuckyLloyd]

Don't expect to be able to avoid picking up the virus in the medium to long term (6 months) but for the practical reason of having to care for a 90 year old I have to do my best to avoid picking it up as best as I can.

Considering that, I'm supposed to be going to stay in a hotel up North for a couple of nights this weekend, restaurant and maybe spa just chillin and going for walks.
Yay or nay?
Gig in the NCH yay or nay?

I don't know if that first sentence is true, particularly if containment actions are engaged now, but delay getting this as long as possible. They may not have vaccines in 6 months but they may have more effective treatment protocols or even a drug therapy. They'll know a hell of a lot more about it by that stage at the very least.

[Guest]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Good graphs
Time to stop fking pussyfooting around

[Ed]

Gig in the NCH yay or nay?

Depends on the gig

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[Guest]

Why are people so bullish on Boeing here? Hoping for a war? Cos the max is toast and they are getting roasted

[dobby]

Juve player has tested positive now so that's the champions league postponed.

And the Italian league. They already said they didn't think the season would finish. That should confirm it

[hotspur]

And the Italian league. They already said they didn't think the season would finish. That should confirm it

Hopefully the EPL wait until 5 minutes before the match where Liverpool can mathematically win the league and cancel the competition without a champion.

[Opr]

Trump currently giving an adddress to the nation. Banning all travel from Europe for 30 days from Friday.

Opr

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[Opr]

I couldn't make out if it only traveled during the speech. That is just incredible. I can't even comprehend the kind of impact this will have on Europe.

Opr

[Theresa]

just human beings.

[luckforsome]

...But not U.K, jesus he must think they literally left Europe... Does this include people returning from America to Europe?, or will flights make that trip but not have people go back to Europe?...Either way it's fucking insane...Literally blaming the whole of Europe, except U.K...

[LuckyLloyd]

just human beings.

Which he had to clarify on Twitter after the fact. Because he said goods. In a speech where he described the virus as “foreign”, talked about tackling it like it was a military foe and then boasted about how great his economy is.

A bizarre and terrible intervention.

[Theresa]

Which he had to clarify on Twitter after the fact. Because he said goods. In a speech where he described the virus as “foreign”, talked about tackling it like it was a military foe and then boasted about how great his economy is.

A bizarre and terrible intervention.

He said it. He meant it.
It was walked back after.

[ComradeCollie]

Now the panic really begins. Must be disastrous for Airlines straight away. Going to make the last recession look like party time.

[Theresa]

On the other hand we aren’t banned either. It’s just shengen countries it seems.

[Closed_Account]

I have spoken to anyone who will listen about what a nonsense this whole Coronia thing is. I think maybe I was wrong, this IS going to rock the world. Proper rock the world. Fuck.

[KevIRL]

Don't expect to be able to avoid picking up the virus in the medium to long term (6 months) but for the practical reason of having to care for a 90 year old I have to do my best to avoid picking it up as best as I can.

Considering that, I'm supposed to be going to stay in a hotel up North for a couple of nights this weekend, restaurant and maybe spa just chillin and going for walks.
Yay or nay?
Gig in the NCH yay or nay?

Tony, stay at home as much as is possible. All the above is non-essential. Social exclusion the best way to avoid this.

[Guest]

Our office is officially closed as of 10am today.
Collect everything you need by then and don't return until further notice.

I'm a tad surprised by the response but schools likely to shut for a significant period of time very soon and many businesses will be following suit.

I thought a little rash but it looks like they're simply getting out ahead of the inevitable.

[Guest]

They're just so far ahead of the game: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51836898

[ComradeCollie]

Hard not to think Trump has already got it, sounds like he has difficulty breathing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I09RkjLcFpU

[Western_Sean]

They're just so far ahead of the game: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51836898

This looks to me like by far the most representative dataset - over 200k tests (see here) and a 0.7% mortality rate. Given the amount of testing they've done, this seems much more representative than the 3%-4% numbers you see going about.

It's also interesting in the context of ease of transmission. This suggests about a 3% community spread which is a lot less than many models notably the HSE suggest.

[Dice75]

In no way comparing the two in any terms bar numbers but just curious as to what the likely number people estimate for COVID19 in Ireland in 2020?

"The flu is responsible for 200-500 deaths each year in Ireland. In a severe season it may cause up to 1000 deaths".

[Guest]

When we get through this the world is going to become a bigger place again, globalisation will reverse for sure. Bye bye corp tax receipts
Our age of comfort is over

[Guest]

Just had an awful thought

SPOILER

This is going to affect The Masters isn’t it

[Denny Crane]

Much be a big jump in shipping stuff back to China too, with the reduced capacity?

I'm surprised at the general lack of concern for Coronavirus in general. I'm not an expert on r0 or epidemiology but the signs are looking grim.

It's looking like it's almost a boost for the S&P as a safe heaven vs the rest of the world. For the moment anyway.

Why so? Looks like its pretty much over and its got a very low fatality rate. Regular flu outbreaks are vastly more dangerous in terms of fatalities.

Long incubation period + asymptomatic transmission + high deathrate.

And it's actual spread likely vastly under-reported.

[Guest]

Good man Donald, the holiday is still on! Would it be totally mad to go?

[Western_Sean]

In no way comparing the two in any terms bar numbers but just curious as to what the likely number people estimate for COVID19 in Ireland in 2020?

"The flu is responsible for 200-500 deaths each year in Ireland. In a severe season it may cause up to 1000 deaths".

Based on a population of 5million odd and a 5% total infection rate with 1% mortality from that you get
(5m*5%)=250k
250k/100=2,500

That's assuming both the infection rate and mortality are 150% of what's been seen in South Korea - this is probably at least close to a lower bound.

An upper bound probably assumes a 20% total infection rate and 3-4% mortality so we get
5m * 20% =1m
1m *3.5%=35000

That's what a likely worst-case looks like I would think.

I'd expect this ends up nearer the former than the latter.

[LuckyLloyd]

Good man Donald, the holiday is still on! Would it be totally mad to go?

I’m expecting a number of announcements tomorrow that will make you feel uncomfortable embarking on non essential travel. Personally speaking, I’m ready to hunker down for three weeks and let the curve flatten out across Europe. Like, I have flights and hotels booked for the Slovakia game that’s now being played behind closed doors and we were going to go anyway for a break, but that seems foolish now.

[LuckyLloyd]

Based on a population of 5million odd and a 5% total infection rate with 1% mortality from that you get
(5m*5%)=250k
250k/100=2,500

That's assuming both the infection rate and mortality are 150% of what's been seen in South Korea - this is probably at least close to a lower bound.

An upper bound probably assumes a 20% total infection rate and 3-4% mortality so we get
5m * 20% =1m
1m *3.5%=35000

That's what a likely worst-case looks like I would think.

I'd expect this ends up nearer the former than the latter.

I hope you’re right. The concern I see is that the Italian mortality rate is much higher due to an overwhelmed health service, and we’re obviously prime candidates for such a situation considering the lack of concurrent capacity within our system and the ~15 - 20% hospital management rate.

[Denny Crane]

This looks to me like by far the most representative dataset - over 200k tests (see here) and a 0.7% mortality rate. Given the amount of testing they've done, this seems much more representative than the 3%-4% numbers you see going about.

It's also interesting in the context of ease of transmission. This suggests about a 3% community spread which is a lot less than many models notably the HSE suggest.

A lot of the Korean cases are still in their early stages, over the next few weeks the rate should unfortunately rise

[Guest]

This looks to me like by far the most representative dataset - over 200k tests (see here) and a 0.7% mortality rate. Given the amount of testing they've done, this seems much more representative than the 3%-4% numbers you see going about.

It's also interesting in the context of ease of transmission. This suggests about a 3% community spread which is a lot less than many models notably the HSE suggest.

I tend to agree with you that 1st world countries will trend closer to a mortality rate in line with South Korea.
The worry lies with those less affluent countries, early indications of North Korea suggest 200+ soldiers have died from the virus.

South Korea vs Italy will offer an interesting comparison. Similar levels of wealth, population and time since first case.
The difference in mortality rate for those with underlying health conditions and above 60 years may differ substantially.

Although I agree that irrespective of the intervention in place, globally we'll trend closer to the figures from South Korea, I believe credit must be given to their early interventionist tactics.

The figures suggest they have succeeded to date as a result of their "Trace, Test & Treat" mantra while not wasting resources.
No lockdowns, no roadblocks and no restriction on movement.

Effectively a 21st century response to the issue and others should be falling in line.

[elbows]

Just had an awful thought

SPOILER

This is going to affect The Masters isn’t it

Had the same thought last night. Then I thought no way Trump will let them cancel the Masters. Can’t imagine them playing it with no crowds though.

How the players is going ahead is beyond me. Euro tour and other events cancelled (albeit lower tier events).

[Western_Sean]

A lot of the Korean cases are still in their early stages, over the next few weeks the rate should unfortunately rise

This is a fair point, however I think the estimate allows for it by loading the observed mortaility rate by 50%. In this context that's a very substantial number.

[Guest]

A lot of the Korean cases are still in their early stages, over the next few weeks the rate should unfortunately rise

Unless of course early intervention has the capacity to save substantial amounts of lives which would have been lost had they been detected far later.

[Guest]

Had the same thought last night. Then I thought no way Trump will let them cancel the Masters. Can’t imagine them playing it with no crowds though.

How the players is going ahead is beyond me. Euro tour and other events cancelled (albeit lower tier events).

I suppose at least in golf it’s easy for players to keep their distance
I was cringing watching the Liverpool game last night, simeone spiting, lots of hugging , handshakes etc on the pitch and in the crowd . Klopp little high five swerve was the exception.

[Western_Sean]

I hope you’re right. The concern I see is that the Italian mortality rate is much higher due to an overwhelmed health service, and we’re obviously prime candidates for such a situation considering the lack of concurrent capacity within our system and the ~15 - 20% hospital management rate.

I think there's a really important point about mortality rate and testing levels here. Because South Korea has completed over 350% of the number of tests Italy has and has a 16% smaller population, their overall estimate of the population infected and thus the incident mortality is likely to be more accurate.

At the sort of numbers involved relative to population size, this effect is likely to be very non-linear so I would tend to apply much higher confidence to the south Korean number.

[Guest]

Kinda feel for Harris et al, dont think they’ve reacted fast enough but they will be the scapegoats when this gets bad , talk about bad timing

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[Guest]

Ah we need to lay off with things like that. This literally hasn't happened before, of course there's going to be indecision and missteps along the way everywhere.

That won’t matter to the mob
Cheltenham attendees and organisers do need to be thrown to the wolves though, they had no excuse

Somewhere out there there’s a Facebook profile saying something along the lines of “cancelling my Cheltenham jolly is what the Virus wants us to do, I’m not letting it win”

[DeadParrot]

Get the bread in

[Denny Crane]

Ah we need to lay off with things like that. This literally hasn't happened before, of course there's going to be indecision and missteps along the way everywhere.

Imagine we had ministers who were still learning how to pull the levers.

[Denny Crane]

Unless of course early intervention has the capacity to save substantial amounts of lives which would have been lost had they been detected far later.

Does it have much impact? It's uncurable, once you've enough ICUs and ventilators I don't think catching people when they're asymptomatic makes much of a difference.

[oleras]

Leo to do a presser live from washington, 6am time, coveney and harris presser at 11.30am

[DeadParrot]

Our office is officially closed as of 10am today.
Collect everything you need by then and don't return until further notice.

I'm a tad surprised by the response but schools likely to shut for a significant period of time very soon and many businesses will be following suit.

I thought a little rash but it looks like they're simply getting out ahead of the inevitable.

I pulled the cord myself yesterday afternoon. WFH until further notice.
I'm already coughing a good few days, and taking care of a post heart op 80 year old.
The cough is here since corona was still in it's infancy in china. Having spent the last 3.5 months in hospitals, pretty sure I picked something up but better safe than sorry.
Have been trying local GP all day to arrange test (not that I think I have it be to alleviate worry and fear)