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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View PostA few years ago you made a number of similar remarks here, probably going much further than O'Leary did. These days, with Christain based Far-right terrorism being much more common, I often wonder do you ever look back and think you may have been mistaken.
Because they are. That's just a fact. The most deadly terrorist groups by a mile are the Taliban, Islamic State and Boko Haram."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by hotspur View PostThere still exists a PIRA army council. Sinn Fein are still under it. So you could have the government of a modern democracy answering to an unelected leadership of an illegal organisation.
If you don't see this a fundamental issue of values then perhaps you simply don't share the values of most of us. We are not Northern Ireland, having Sinn Fein in power here is not a necessary evil in transitioning from conflict. We can apply normal values and standards as a normal democracy.
This is more fundamental than the political issues of the day, or party political issues, it's about the very fabric of our democracy.
I suppose it might make Brexit talks more interesting.
"So we have agreement, excellent. Shake hands everyone. Wait; Mary Loo, where are you going? Don't you as Taoiseach of Ireland sign off?'
'Err, not just yet. Need to make a quick call.'
'Who to?'
'Gerry. Oh wait he was never in the IRA. Eh, Slab. Is that OK?'"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostAre you really claiming terrorist incidents are not primarily perpetrated by groups or individuals that claim to be Islamically-motivated?
Because they are. That's just a fact. The most deadly terrorist groups by a mile are the Taliban, Islamic State and Boko Haram.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostAre you really claiming terrorist incidents are not primarily perpetrated by groups or individuals that claim to be Islamically-motivated?
Because they are. That's just a fact. The most deadly terrorist groups by a mile are the Taliban, Islamic State and Boko Haram.
15,952 deaths by terrorism in 2018. (This is actually a huge fall over the last few years.)
The aforementioned Taliban, Islamic State and Boko Haram were responsible for well over 50% of all terrorist murders. All of these are clearly Islamic in nature.
Far-right groups were responsible for 26 terrorist murders in 2018. Or 0.16% of all terrorist murders. That did increase to 77 in 2019."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View PostThat's nonsense, but hat's off to you, it's quite a brilliant post. You manage to misrepresent what I said, make a grand claim that is completely inconsequential and ignore the thrust of what I said."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by shrapnel View PostIMO he lost control, but ball was caught ans then held against him by a French player.
Until we beat you to Le Grand Chelem on your own pitch in a few weeks."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View PostI would be tempted to, but the tone of this sentence really puts me off. Why would I
bother? I don't think you are capable of changing your mind.
For the avoidance of any possible doubt, I was responding to the O'Leary comment. I pointed out that, statistically, most terrorist attacks are perpetrated by groups that are Islamic in nature. This is of course true.
And now you seem to be in a fury about this but I'm not sure why."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by hotspur View PostThere still exists a PIRA army council. Sinn Fein are still under it. So you could have the government of a modern democracy answering to an unelected leadership of an illegal organisation.
If you don't see this a fundamental issue of values then perhaps you simply don't share the values of most of us. We are not Northern Ireland, having Sinn Fein in power here is not a necessary evil in transitioning from conflict. We can apply normal values and standards as a normal democracy.
This is more fundamental than the political issues of the day, or party political issues, it's about the very fabric of our democracy.
I certainly don’t share the values of people who like to pretend Northern Ireland is some remote experience in Siberia. It’s one Ireland and one peace process overwhelmingly voted for by all of Ireland which is consistently undermined by FFG looking to score political points. If your faux moralising is indicative of your values I’m very comfortable going the other way.
But, again, keep forever dragging up the past while SF and others focus on the now and the future. I don’t think it benefits FFG and it certainly doesn’t benefit the electorate."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Lloyd, do you believe thinking people within SF are strategising right now for a period in opposition, with a FFG govt?
SF have always been a long game party, it does seem strategically to be the best move.
Their electorate (some sections) are talking about marching the streets if they're not in government. SF reps are on all the airwaves talking about wanting to lead a government.
They promised change, the establishment blocked them is a powerful narrative.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostBut, again, keep forever dragging up the past while SF and others focus on the now and the future. I don’t think it benefits FFG and it certainly doesn’t benefit the electorate.
I mean why on earth would Martin O'Muilleoir (Finance Minister) have to check with a shadowy (hint, hint) best buddy of Gerry Adams (who was never in the IRA, of course) as to whether his line on the RHI scandal was appropriate.
It seems like SF don't like the spotlight being turned on them...but when you are a serious candidate for government, which they now are for the first time, it comes with the job. So, Cullinane roaring 'Up the RA' at his election celebration, your new TD posting some pretty batshit-crazy stuff on social media or indeed, both the British and Irish security services saying that they believe the Army Council still controls SF policy, then citizens are entitled to look at these things and make their minds up about them. Maybe they will think it doesn't matter but we are very much entitled to the facts."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Lazare View PostLloyd, do you believe thinking people within SF are strategising right now for a period in opposition, with a FFG govt?
SF have always been a long game party, it does seem strategically to be the best move.
Their electorate (some sections) are talking about marching the streets if they're not in government. SF reps are on all the airwaves talking about wanting to lead a government.
They promised change, the establishment blocked them is a powerful narrative.
- Go into government, they take power at a time when the economy is rocketing along and unemployment is at a record low. They can therefore hand out some sweeties to their base without upsetting the apple cart too much. Most importantly, and I don't think people talk about this enough, the idea of SF in government becomes normalised - people will view them differently and they will become a natural choice to lead the country. No small achievement.
- Don't go into government. They can position themselves as the populist opposition to 'FFG' and set themselves up as a the natural replacement party. As you say, they are very much a party that thinks in decades. They are also a party with very little depth in talent (as we've seen from some of the muppetry in the last week) so this would give them an opportunity to freshen up their talent pool.
The downsides to (1) would be the Labour effect. They have undoubtedly overpromised versus what is actually deliverable. Voters have long memories and would punish them.
The possible downside to (2) is potentially what happened to FG in the 1997-2007 period. The economy keeps roaring ahead. Voters become happy and complacent, leading them to view SF as a potential risk to prosperity.
(2) makes more sense to me."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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- Go into government, they take power at a time when the economy is rocketing along and unemployment is at a record low. They can therefore hand out some sweeties to their base without upsetting the apple cart too much. Most importantly, and I don't think people talk about this enough, the idea of SF in government becomes normalised - people will view them differently and they will become a natural choice to lead the country. No small achievement.
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But let's focus on the real big issues of the day here. For the last 12 months, rounders has been going around with a swelled head, thinking he's the man.
Sign up to the Cheltenham Tipping Comp today and let's cut that mofo down to size.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Lazare View PostLloyd, do you believe thinking people within SF are strategising right now for a period in opposition, with a FFG govt?
SF have always been a long game party, it does seem strategically to be the best move.
Their electorate (some sections) are talking about marching the streets if they're not in government. SF reps are on all the airwaves talking about wanting to lead a government.
They promised change, the establishment blocked them is a powerful narrative."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostAnd let’s face it, if FF had got ~10 seats more the negotiations would already have been underway because FF could have tried to treat SF as a junior partner and do a deal on a FG / Labour 2011 type basis."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostStrategically, (and I think Pat Leahy said this today in the IT, so I'll give him the credit), SF have no bad options.
- Go into government, they take power at a time when the economy is rocketing along and unemployment is at a record low. They can therefore hand out some sweeties to their base without upsetting the apple cart too much. Most importantly, and I don't think people talk about this enough, the idea of SF in government becomes normalised - people will view them differently and they will become a natural choice to lead the country. No small achievement.
- Don't go into government. They can position themselves as the populist opposition to 'FFG' and set themselves up as a the natural replacement party. As you say, they are very much a party that thinks in decades. They are also a party with very little depth in talent (as we've seen from some of the muppetry in the last week) so this would give them an opportunity to freshen up their talent pool.
The downsides to (1) would be the Labour effect. They have undoubtedly overpromised versus what is actually deliverable. Voters have long memories and would punish them.
The possible downside to (2) is potentially what happened to FG in the 1997-2007 period. The economy keeps roaring ahead. Voters become happy and complacent, leading them to view SF as a potential risk to prosperity.
(2) makes more sense to me.
SP posted something very thought provoking a few weeks ago. What we could well end up with is a breaking up of FF. The pro enterprise wing forming up with FG and the civil war side defecting to SF creating two large opposing parties juggling power for generations.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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- Go into government, they take power at a time when the economy is rocketing along and unemployment is at a record low. They can therefore hand out some sweeties to their base without upsetting the apple cart too much. Most importantly, and I don't think people talk about this enough, the idea of SF in government becomes normalised - people will view them differently and they will become a natural choice to lead the country. No small achievement.
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Originally posted by Lazare View PostSP posted something very thought provoking a few weeks ago. What we could well end up with is a breaking up of FF. The pro enterprise wing forming up with FG and the civil war side defecting to SF creating two large opposing parties juggling power for generations.
I also think Labour, the Greens and the SD are also closer to the centre than they are to SF.
I love using that litmus test of 'who do they sit with in Europe?' to gauge where a party really lies on the spectrum. SF are way out on the left with all the Proto-Commies.
The rest by contrast all sit in the mainstream social democrat or socialist groupings.
Last edited by Raoul Duke III; 22-02-20, 21:05."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostDo you really think so? I'm not much of a fan of Mehole Martin but his stance towards SF has been very consistent (whether you agree with it or not).
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostI think SF have nothing to fear from another election and agree being leaders of the opposition for a FFG + Greens government could be advantageous strategically. That said, I think if one side of FFG wanted to put their big boy pants on and negotiate as equals SF would do a deal. And let’s face it, if FF had got ~10 seats more the negotiations would already have been underway because FF could have tried to treat SF as a junior partner and do a deal on a FG / Labour 2011 type basis.
Long term I think another election in the coming weeks is far more beneficial strategically for FF and FG than a grand coalition.
The time for a FF FG grand coalition is after a SF government term, not before it.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Originally posted by Lazare View PostJust as the best play for SF now is a FFG govt, the best play for FFG is a SF led left govt.- It would need either FF or FG to agree to prop it up.Which they won't.
- The Irish 'left' is impossibly fragmented and contains a vast number of loudmouths who would run a mile at the thought of actually having to govern. See: Murphy, Paul.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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- It would need either FF or FG to agree to prop it up.Which they won't.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post- It would need either FF or FG to agree to prop it up.Which they won't.
- The Irish 'left' is impossibly fragmented and contains a vast number of loudmouths who would run a mile at the thought of actually having to govern. See: Murphy, Paul.
I do think the latter is the better option from FG's pov.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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- It would need either FF or FG to agree to prop it up.Which they won't.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostDo you really think so? I'm not much of a fan of Mehole Martin but his stance towards SF has been very consistent (whether you agree with it or not)."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostExcept for when he was interviewed after finally getting his seat with the belief they’d manage 45+ seats. All about representing democratic mandates then. 24 hours later after they had won the same amount of seats (+ retaining the CC) he was back on message.
So I think it will be FFG. Rotating Taoiseach with Mehole getting first cut. I think the Greens absolutely have to be in government, given our dire climate change record. And the SDs, so that Shortall canbe given the blame forbecome Minister of Health.
And we'll go again in 2024."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Lazare View PostWhat would you prefer in this climate? A FFFG Green govt or back to the polls?
I do think the latter is the better option from FG's pov.
He’s a lame duck if he can’t strike a deal for some years as leader
I feel a second election will play into sf hands as people are sick of hearing and not doing and just want to see a fresh face
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Originally posted by Lazare View PostI do think the latter is the better option from FG's pov."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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I think if you asked FG & FF immediately post election how they'd feel about a 2nd election, they would have been very pessimistic about it.
However, I believe in light of various events which have arisen since then, the same question may now elicit a more sanguine response.
The polls don't indicate it as of yet but I don't believe the 10+ seat bump SF envisage will materialise. I actually question if any at all will happen.
A 2nd election looks likely because FF/FG don't want to do a deal both strategically & politically plus SF are understandably riding a wave of hubris that wont be easily reigned in.
Personally, I'd be all for going again and if people choose to give SF the additional seats they need to form a government then so be it.
I'd far prefer that result than the inevitable fragmentation and instability that will exist from a left wing coalition of people who have little interest in actually making decisions.
I obviously don't support SF's key overt machinations and I question the feasibility of their policies.
Not to mention I think the idea that the directives SF get from PAC are the same as those Leo/FG get from their "secret council" is an incredible false equivalence.
Nevertheless, a 2nd election will likely give a clearer picture for all which is the best thing for the country moving forward.
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Good to see MI5 being quoted as if they are just a well respected and impartial news wire service
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Originally posted by Murdrum View PostI think if you asked FG & FF immediately post election how they'd feel about a 2nd election, they would have been very pessimistic about it.
However, I believe in light of various events which have arisen since then, the same question may now elicit a more sanguine response.
The polls don't indicate it as of yet but I don't believe the 10+ seat bump SF envisage will materialise. I actually question if any at all will happen.
A 2nd election looks likely because FF/FG don't want to do a deal both strategically & politically plus SF are understandably riding a wave of hubris that wont be easily reigned in.
Personally, I'd be all for going again and if people choose to give SF the additional seats they need to form a government then so be it.
I'd far prefer that result than the inevitable fragmentation and instability that will exist from a left wing coalition of people who have little interest in actually making decisions.
I obviously don't support SF's key overt machinations and I question the feasibility of their policies.
Not to mention I think the idea that the directives SF get from PAC are the same as those Leo/FG get from their "secret council" is an incredible false equivalence.
Nevertheless, a 2nd election will likely give a clearer picture for all which is the best thing for the country moving forward.
SF 35%
FG 18%
FF 17%
Green 9%
Ind 7%
Soc Dems 5%
Labour 3%
Sol-PBP 3%
Others 4%"Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostIf your faux moralising is indicative of your values I’m very comfortable going the other way.
I deleted the sections in a longer post addressing your other comments because I don't believe you deserve to be treated with the respect and attention I would ordinarily give after the faux moralising comment.
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostPost election poll in the Irish Daily Mail on Wednesday:
SF 35%
FG 18%
FF 17%
Green 9%
Ind 7%
Soc Dems 5%
Labour 3%
Sol-PBP 3%
Others 4%
As I said in the post, I acknowledge the opinion polls don't agree with my opinion.
I suspect we'll get the opportunity to see though.
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I was recently told by a family member of an elected official that it effectively costs approx 60k to run for a seat.
That's very anecdotal now and I have no idea how much the candidate themselves invests but perhaps costs are a factor.
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A number of prisoners were involved in a hostage situation at the Midlands Prison in Portlaoise this week.
The incident began at around 3pm on Thursday.
Three prisoners - one armed with a weapon- took another inmate hostage and barricaded themselves into a cell at the Midlands Prison on Thursday afternoon.
Specialist officers were called in along with trained negotiators.
After a five hour standoff, one of the prisoners agreed to open the cell and exchange the weapon for a mars bar.
No staff were injured during the incident and the prisoners involved received only minor injuries.
Senior Management at the Prison have begun an investigation into the incident.
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Originally posted by Silver-Tiger View PostStick in a party or Candidate in here. It's interesting to see what they spent on FB/Insta on their campaigns.
https://www.facebook.com/ads/library...sions_lifetime
Varadker over 18k spent and has 42k likes.
Mary Lou <100e spent and 130k likes.
Obviously ages, base etc all very different between both but interesting nonetheless that the leader of the most popular party among social media users has no FB spend.
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This is the dashboard I was sent in work, not sure if it's been shared here: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostAre you really claiming terrorist incidents are not primarily perpetrated by groups or individuals that claim to be Islamically-motivated?
Because they are. That's just a fact. The most deadly terrorist groups by a mile are the Taliban, Islamic State and Boko Haram.
Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostDo we think the average Green or SD voter is closer to SF or FG?
Certainly in my constituency, where we have one of each, voting Green or SD is very much a middle class pursuit.
Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostI think the Greens absolutely have to be in government, given our dire climate change record. .
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostAren't close second elections famously difficult in Ireland as the parties just can't afford them? Similar to how they try not to run candidates in presidential elections.
I can see FG picking up a few extra seats. Maybe five or so. SF maybe an extra five. They'll really struggle to get double seats in most places as there just isn't the protest vote there. FF might stay the same. A few losses for Greens and SocDems as the borrowed votes from FG go back home. Its all very well voting for nice cycling paths in the Greens but if your environmental vote in a nice part of Dublin is getting SF into power you'll think twice. Who knows though.
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Originally posted by hotspur View PostDon't accuse me of faux moralising. You have no basis for that comment. Just because you disagree with my morals you have no right to call it faux. I am not doubting your sincerity in your beliefs which I disagree with, it reflects very poorly on you that you don't extend the same decency.
I deleted the sections in a longer post addressing your other comments because I don't believe you deserve to be treated with the respect and attention I would ordinarily give after the faux moralising comment.You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostYeah don't listen to that gobshite. Shut.down.everything and stop eating pasta for the love of god you'll kill us all.
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Originally posted by Goodluck2me View PostIf you narrowed it down to say just the US you’d see white males as by far the worst perpetrator of mass shootings.
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Originally posted by Goodluck2me View PostThe greens, upon mature reflection, were way further left than I had imagined. Wealth taxes, high marginals etc.
Originally posted by Goodluck2me View PostReally? I think FG and Labour did a good job here, Rabbitte in particular as minister of energy.
Sidebar to me shouting at my tv last night when some sodden culchie was whining about the Shannon flooding. If farmers hadn't destroyed all the natural drainage, then we wouldn't have this problem. Rural folk are by far our worst climate change actors. And the biggest deniers!"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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