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**Raoul Duke III** · 02-02-20, 10:22

Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

Latest opinion polls
FF 24%
SF 24%
FG 21%

tbh I'd rather go with Paddy Power first preference lines:

FF 28.5%
FG: 23.5%
SF: 15.5%
GP: 8.5%
LP: 6.5%

I think there is a consistent trend for opinion polls to underestimate the FF vote and overestimate SF. No idea why but certainly you would have seen that backed up in 2016.

**Raoul Duke III** · 02-02-20, 10:29

The PP seat lines are below (with the current count in brackets)

FF: 53.5 (45)
FG: 39.5 (47)
SF: 24.5 (22)
GP: 11.5 (3)
LP: 6.5 (7)

PBP (6)
Aontu (1)
SD (2)
Indos (22)

What strikes you looking at this is how incremental the change is likely to be

FF win a few seats off FG
SF stay much the same
Greens win more seats, off FG and Indo
Indos lose a few

It's not exactly a sea change in any sense when you look under the hood

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 02-02-20, 10:38

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**Strewelpeter** · 02-02-20, 10:38

Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

I think there is a consistent trend for opinion polls to underestimate the FF vote and overestimate SF. No idea why but certainly you would have seen that backed up in 2016.

Beyond the pale, most FF voters do so because 'he fixed the roads' and their great grandaddy voted for them in much the same way as Irish people form a lifelong bond with whatever North of England soccer club was winning when they were eight years old.
FF always has been and remains an SF splinter party their voters are natural SF voters and once SF find a path to power they will switch to them and stay with them.

**Guest** · 02-02-20, 10:40

Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

tbh I'd rather go with Paddy Power first preference lines:

FF 28.5%
FG: 23.5%
SF: 15.5%
GP: 8.5%
LP: 6.5%

I think there is a consistent trend for opinion polls to underestimate the FF vote and overestimate SF. No idea why but certainly you would have seen that backed up in 2016.

I tend to agree, I don't think the gap is quite as wide but SF possibly stronger than I ~~hoped~~ thought originally.

SF supporters shout the loudest and FF supporters shout the least. Look at the bases, those with highest probability of making their rhetoric known on social media vs the supporters of the party with the lowest probability of doing so.

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 02-02-20, 10:42

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**Denny Crane** · 02-02-20, 14:39

Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

Renua like taxpayers

They got my #1 last time

**balfejohn** · 02-02-20, 14:51

Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

Renua like taxpayers

So would you if u had no hope of getting elected
You can promise all classes everything because u haven’t a hope of been in power

**shrapnel** · 02-02-20, 15:08

Great start for France. Big blow that penaud is out

**oleras** · 02-02-20, 15:09

Allez !

**Solksjaer!** · 02-02-20, 15:11

Originally posted by shrapnel View Post

Great start for France. Big blow that penaud is out

What's the bar for when we start to lay France.today 14 ahead ?

**oleras** · 02-02-20, 15:24

That +6 looks decent now.

**Raoul Duke III** · 02-02-20, 15:25

Shraaaaaaaaaap!

Could this be real?

**The Situation** · 02-02-20, 15:25

Looked like a French hand but this is hilarious

**rounders123** · 02-02-20, 15:29

Alles Les Bleus!
backed them +5 and HT-FT 13/5. This time they wont be beat. Le France adore Le Piat D'or.

If Trump wins the snooker today then only Man Utd let me down for a 10-fold acca for €6,800 for a €6 stake!

**Guest** · 02-02-20, 15:30

Some kick there.

That No11, 72kg, how is that possible at this level, unbelievable in and of itself.

**shrapnel** · 02-02-20, 15:42

Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

Shraaaaaaaaaap!

Could this be real?

As with the world Cup. This is a game of 2 halves. Hope I'm wrong this time

**shrapnel** · 02-02-20, 15:49

Originally posted by shrapnel View Post

As with the world Cup. This is a game of 2 halves. Hope I'm wrong this time

Don't want a repeat of Wales last year

**Raoul Duke III** · 02-02-20, 16:23

Originally posted by shrapnel View Post

Don't want a repeat of Wales last year

Hard to see you losing from 24-0 up and English heads all over the shop.

**shrapnel** · 02-02-20, 16:34

Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

Hard to see you losing from 24-0 up and English heads all over the shop.

Hmmmmm

**rounders123** · 02-02-20, 16:42

France have this covered comfortably head in chest.

**Guest** · 02-02-20, 16:54

Nice win Shrap.

Heinz made a few bad errors there I felt, hard to think there isn't any stronger scrum halfs to back up Youngs.

**Strewelpeter** · 02-02-20, 16:56

Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

Hard to see you losing from 24-0 up and English heads all over the shop.

Letting them get a point is fairly close to the usual capitulation

**Theresa** · 02-02-20, 17:43

Jaysus.

I love my missus. She’s deadly.

But fuck me if she doesn’t come home from a night out with a bag of fast food, argue at huge decibels with every appliance and utensil she can find and then proceed to insist on the chats if there is even a hint of me being awake in the bed.

She’s a rhino.

**dobby** · 02-02-20, 18:13

CMON YOU SPURS!!! 22 points clear

**Tar.Aldarion** · 02-02-20, 20:58

Anybody nerded out about sheets here before so that I don't have to read about them for 7 hours? And pillows that aren't feathers? Have flannel atm which is great, just very warm.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Thread-Fitt...%2C139&sr=8-14 ?

https://www.amazon.co.uk/PureComfort...79&sr=8-1&th=1 ?

I'd listen to this guy talk about anything

https://youtu.be/MUExoqhDr_E

**Jibzzzz** · 02-02-20, 21:32

People are sound.

Lost my phone last night after a heavy day drinking, two lovley girls found it, charged it and met them this eve to collect it. Absolute legends.

They found it at Fatima Luas Stop which hasn't made sense to me yet.

**dobby** · 02-02-20, 21:44

Originally posted by Jibzzzz View Post

People are sound.

Lost my phone last night after a heavy day drinking, two lovley girls found it, charged it and met them this eve to collect it. Absolute legends.

They found it at Fatima Luas Stop which hasn't made sense to me yet.

Stop losing expensive stuff and relying on people being sound you luck box

**luckforsome** · 02-02-20, 22:37

Originally posted by Jibzzzz View Post

People are sound.

Lost my phone last night after a heavy day drinking, two lovley girls found it, charged it and met them this eve to collect it. Absolute legends.

They found it at Fatima Luas Stop which hasn't made sense to me yet.

...Jesus, a good deed on the Red line, the end is near...

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 02-02-20, 22:49

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**balfejohn** · 02-02-20, 22:56

Originally posted by Jibzzzz View Post

People are sound.

Lost my phone last night after a heavy day drinking, two lovley girls found it, charged it and met them this eve to collect it. Absolute legends.

They found it at Fatima Luas Stop which hasn't made sense to me yet.

Did u get a fone number from them

**Strewelpeter** · 03-02-20, 09:23

2020 and we are about to put Mickey Martin, Cowan, O'Dea and various descendants of DeVelara and Lemass into government with Sinn Fein.

And we thoughts the British electorate were thick

**Raoul Duke III** · 03-02-20, 10:05

Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post

2020 and we are about to put Mickey Martin, Cowan, O'Dea and various descendants of DeVelara and Lemass into government with Sinn Fein.

And we thoughts the British electorate were thick

You may avail of the 11/2 with PP so.

Are we all doing the Hitch seat bet thing?

**Raoul Duke III** · 03-02-20, 10:09

How many of the Indos are FF gene pool, I've lost track?

Matty McGrath, 2 * Healy-Rea but there must be more...

**Guest** · 03-02-20, 10:21

The Guardian taking the piss a little now:

"For some, the election on 8 February is an opportunity for a genuine shift away from the largely rightwing politics that has dominated Irish life for 90 years – with policies that have lately paid lip service to identity politics while implementing austerity measures and maintaining corporate tax rates that have produced stark inequality."

So when the government implements austerity measures they're right wing but when they implement progressive measures, they're still right wing but paying lip service to identity politics.

Additionally, the long term irredentist goals of Sinn Fein, along with their original position on abortion is hardly the position of progressives.

Can Sinn Féin’s young voters finally pull Ireland to the left? | Roisin Agnew

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/31/sinn-fein-ireland-left-election-ira

In next week’s general election, progressives may be more comfortable backing a party once synonymous with the IRA, says Irish journalist and screenwriter Roisin Agnew

What has played well for Sinn Féin, too, is its talent for reaching the public and getting a message across. During the abortion and marriage equality referendums it was an early and proactive supporter for change, with leader Mary Lou McDonald in particular gaining popularity among young women due to her support of the “repeal the eighth” campaign.

Am I not correct in thinking SF changed their position on the 8th after the results?

**Tar.Aldarion** · 03-02-20, 10:24

If anybody is interested in doing some meditations, I'll be running a 21 day abundance challenge over WhatsApp soon. It’s about 10-15 minutes of guided meditation a day, with a daily task. Send me your number if interested. Look at me, I am the Hotspur now.

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 03-02-20, 10:25

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**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 03-02-20, 10:42

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**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 03-02-20, 10:43

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**Raoul Duke III** · 03-02-20, 11:04

Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

Lets do it! Maybe we keep it as an honour system on payment to speed up the process.

In. What's the deadline O Comp Master?

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 03-02-20, 11:20

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**Keane** · 03-02-20, 11:23

Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

The Guardian taking the piss a little now:

"For some, the election on 8 February is an opportunity for a genuine shift away from the largely rightwing politics that has dominated Irish life for 90 years – with policies that have lately paid lip service to identity politics while implementing austerity measures and maintaining corporate tax rates that have produced stark inequality."

So when the government implements austerity measures they're right wing but when they implement progressive measures, they're still right wing but paying lip service to identity politics.

Additionally, the long term irredentist goals of Sinn Fein, along with their original position on abortion is hardly the position of progressives.

Can Sinn Féin’s young voters finally pull Ireland to the left? | Roisin Agnew

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/31/sinn-fein-ireland-left-election-ira

In next week’s general election, progressives may be more comfortable backing a party once synonymous with the IRA, says Irish journalist and screenwriter Roisin Agnew

What has played well for Sinn Féin, too, is its talent for reaching the public and getting a message across. During the abortion and marriage equality referendums it was an early and proactive supporter for change, with leader Mary Lou McDonald in particular gaining popularity among young women due to her support of the “repeal the eighth” campaign.

Am I not correct in thinking SF changed their position on the 8th after the results?

I don't think so. Peadar Toibin left SF over their pro-choice position and Mary Lou was on a lot of the debates promoting repeal.

**Denny Crane** · 03-02-20, 11:28

Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post

I got an instant pot because the internet said to. Anyone have any recipe recommendations?

This is going well, so far I've tried:

Ragu
Chicken Wings
Mac and Cheese
Butter chicken twice
pot arroz con pollo
Chilli

Ragu was outstanding.
For the butter chicken I marinated the chicken yoghurt overnight, was so tender.

It's all generally fairly effortless and quick.

**pokerhand** · 03-02-20, 11:28

Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

Let's say Thursday 5pm!

I'll start a thread later today

Don't trust you with competitions after that Sheep debacle

**Dice75** · 03-02-20, 11:33

One to get PSV's week off to a good start............

Google Maps Hacks by Simon Weckert

http://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=k5eL_al_m7Q&feature=emb_logo

99 smartphones are transported in a handcart to generate virtual traffic jam in Google Maps.Through this activity, it is possible to turn a green street red ...

**Solksjaer!** · 03-02-20, 11:43

Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post

Puke central here . Won't be sleeping tonight . Toddler emptying the clip . Not sure if he needs a doctor or an exorcism , impressive hurling. Nothing left unscathed. . Strong brute.
Still though I'd prefer it was me .

Me and my big mouth. GRIM.

**Guest** · 03-02-20, 11:45

Originally posted by Keane View Post

I don't think so. Peadar Toibin left SF over their pro-choice position and Mary Lou was on a lot of the debates promoting repeal.

Did they not have a convention on officially changing the party position from in favour in certain cases and within a given time period from conception?

Sinn Féin unlikely to change position on abortion before referendum

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/sinn-f%C3%A9in-unlikely-to-change-position-on-abortion-before-referendum-1.3419544

Party now opposes terminations up to 12 weeks and must hold ardfheis to propose change

They only advocated for abortion under certain conditions and then changed post referendum I think?

**Keane** · 03-02-20, 11:51

Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

Did they not have a convention on officially changing the party position from in favour in certain cases and within a given time period from conception?

Sinn Féin unlikely to change position on abortion before referendum

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/sinn-f%C3%A9in-unlikely-to-change-position-on-abortion-before-referendum-1.3419544

Party now opposes terminations up to 12 weeks and must hold ardfheis to propose change

They only advocated for abortion under certain conditions and then changed post referendum I think?

A Sinn Féin TD who was suspended for three months and lost the party whip after opposing its policy on repealing the Eighth Amendment has denied there are double standards within the party.

Offaly TD Carol Nolan voted against holding a referendum on the issue in the Dáil last month. Sinn Féin supports the holding of a referendum, repealing the Eighth Amendment and for terminations in cases of rape, incest, fatal foetal abnormalities and when a mother’s life, health or mental health is at risk.

TD denies double standards over Sinn Féin policy on Eighth

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/td-denies-double-standards-over-sinn-f%C3%A9in-policy-on-eighth-1.3473007

Offaly TD Carol Nolan was suspended from party for three months

**Guest** · 03-02-20, 12:03

Originally posted by Keane View Post

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...ghth-1.3473007

Previously Sinn Féin had backed making terminations available in circumstances like fatal foetal abnormality, rape or sexual abuse.

However, the party will now back a policy put forward by the Sinn Féin leadership that is broadly in line with the new Irish law, which is expected to make abortion available to women within the first 12 weeks of their pregnancies.

It's not a monumental change or anything, they were largely in favour but they definitely shifted to something more in line with what was the consensus in the Republic.
They simply didn't hold the most liberal view on one of the more liberal issues in recent years yet are viewed as the primary liberal party.

Sinn Féin votes to change abortion policy

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-44507054

The party can now support a law which is set to allow abortions within the first 12 weeks of pregnancy.

**Strewelpeter** · 03-02-20, 12:08

Populist party shifts direction when the wind changes Shock! Horror!

**Lazare** · 03-02-20, 12:45

Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

A guy was saying at the weekend that you should only salt pasta water after it has boiled not when the water is cold. Maybe because they were Italian they were quite insistent that the world could be effortlessly divided into a good group of boiled-water-salters and a group of deviants who represent everything wrong with the world.

Seems the internet is less clear-cut, but I did come across this piece which is a shocking indictment of the US. Their main Italian chain has stopped salting pasta altogether as it enabled them to qualify for an extended warranty on pasta pots. What have we become?

I do it to speed things up. Salt water takes longer to reach boiling point.

**Lazare** · 03-02-20, 12:50

Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post

Me and my big mouth. GRIM.

A big mouth is handy for puking.

**oleras** · 03-02-20, 13:09

Originally posted by Lazare View Post

I do it to speed things up. Salt water takes longer to reach boiling point.

People tend to overlook putting a lid on to speed up the boiling time...people meaning my wife...

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 03-02-20, 13:10

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**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 03-02-20, 13:11

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**Goodluck2me** · 03-02-20, 14:09

Originally posted by Lazare View Post

I do it to speed things up. Salt water takes longer to reach boiling point.

Surely you use fresh pasta that takes no more than 2minutes? Once you do you’ll never go back. Can’t stand dried pasta now

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 03-02-20, 14:53

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**Silver-Tiger** · 03-02-20, 15:17

Originally posted by oleras View Post

People tend to overlook putting a lid on to speed up the boiling time...people meaning my wife...

I love cooking, i cook a lot. My family and some friends look up to me when it comes to cooking.

I never knew this. Thanks.

**The Situation** · 03-02-20, 15:33

Haha shocked this is a common issue! Do you leave your oven doors open too?

**shrapnel** · 03-02-20, 15:49

Originally posted by oleras View Post

People tend to overlook putting a lid on to speed up the boiling time...people meaning my wife...

even quicker is to boil the water in the kettle first, then transfer

Announcement

Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

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