Bad Beat/Moaning/Venting - pray for Lazare

[Raoul Duke III]

Did read it. My point wasn't about HuffPo, it was that its a review article. People's emotional recall of an event are much more vivid than a stale history lesson based on the NYT that used to pride itself on dryness.

ah just stop - the article was written at the same time your friend's memory was perverted by standing out in the cold with a bunch of malcontents

you are now this guy:

[Raoul Duke III]

this is an excellent way of debating I must say

why did I never think of this before?

1. make devastating point
2. post humorous gif
3. declare victory

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[Raoul Duke III]

For example, who do you think is better able to capture the true meaning of the fall of the Berlin Wall? People who saw it live happening on tv, who followed the events leading up to the fall, or kids today reading about it in history books? The emotional recall of people who witness something, unfiltered by journalistic constraints like those followed in a serious newspaper article, is the best recall of an event.

professional historians obviously

using this same 'logic'; who is best able to analyse the financial crisis of 2008 - the trained economist or the lad who did his bollocks investing in apartments in Leitrim? Your logic says the latter - he 'was there' and I'm sure felt considerable emotional pain (he still doesn't know why or how but that's your argument). Resign your job now and hand over to emotional people who once had a bad (or good) financial experience!

[Raoul Duke III]

See, I did it again.

Hitch on the floor, they think it's all over...surely he can't come back from this one?

[Raoul Duke III]

With Hitch defeated, I will retire for the evening.

Any young contenders looking to take me on (except maybe Kayroo) will have to wait.

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[AndyFatBastard]

What the fuck kind of idiot would want to wash a kitten?

They don't really start preening until they're a bit older, typically their mother would take care of that.

[Lord Sir Banter]

[balfejohn]

Anyways, important stuff.

Investigating buying wardrobes, and 2 things strike me.
1. They seem to be phenomenally expensive things to get built in.
2. Finding exactly how much they might even cost is very difficult. Every website seems to be the "we'll give you a quote" type places which I really dislike.

Anyone got any tips on buying these things? I'd like a middle ground between a bargaintown free standing wardrobe and a 2 grand cost for a decent built in one for a 2 metre wide space (and smaller).

What size wardrobes are u looking to get
If u have measurements I can get the brother in law to put a price together for u to give u a guide
He can do the sliderobes if u want .

[AndyFatBastard]

Linked something like this



AFAIR

Wonder did he buy one in the end?

Must give this a try. I've a hemorrhoid the size of a gobstopper and the suppositories are barely keeping it in check.

[6starpool]

What size wardrobes are u looking to get
If u have measurements I can get the brother in law to put a price together for u to give u a guide
He can do the sliderobes if u want .

We need wardrobes in 3 bedrooms. All measurements in cm.

Room 1: approx 215 wide, 70 deep.
Room 2: approx 144 wide, 70 deep.
Room 3: approx 100 wide, 70 deep.

I didn't measure the height, but probably 2 metres, give or take.

I wouldn't want you to put him to any trouble, we might not even get them in for a while as they aren't a must have immediately, but I'd like to get an estimate. I'd imagine most of the estimates for decent quality would be much higher than I would instinctively think they should be, but I have no idea about wardrobes. Sliderobes in the 2 bigger rooms might be alright, but I'd be perfectly happy with normal doors that swing open. I know that there are huge variables to take into account depending on material and style, but still, I'd like to have some idea.

If he could give a quick ballpark figure that would be great, if he'd have to spend time on it, I'd feel bad about taking up his time. Where is he located by the way?

[DeadParrot]

Must give this a try. I've a hemorrhoid the size of a gobstopper and the suppositories are barely keeping it in check.

[Flushdraw]

Decent 100/200/400/800/1600 PLO stream kicking off on at Kings Casino (showing hole cards). Well when i say decent, it's Sam Trickett, Rob Young and 2 whales. About 1m on the table. Some huge pots will be coming.

https://www.twitch.tv/pokerroomkings

[Denny Crane]

he's American This was his story of being active in American politics at the time of Reagan's election and the reaction there was at the time to the election. Can't see any reason why it would have been mis-remembered.

Posting a link to a review article on HuffPo as a counterpoint, is a bit like disagreeing with a concentration camp survivor through reference to a history book on the holocaust. If you were there you remember the emotions that history forgets.

The emotional recall of people who witness something

Humans have horrific memories for details, and can easily be biased or led into creating false memories, especially around emotional events.

[balfejohn]

We need wardrobes in 3 bedrooms. All measurements in cm.

Room 1: approx 215 wide, 70 deep.
Room 2: approx 144 wide, 70 deep.
Room 3: approx 100 wide, 70 deep.

I didn't measure the height, but probably 2 metres, give or take.

I wouldn't want you to put him to any trouble, we might not even get them in for a while as they aren't a must have immediately, but I'd like to get an estimate. I'd imagine most of the estimates for decent quality would be much higher than I would instinctively think they should be, but I have no idea about wardrobes. Sliderobes in the 2 bigger rooms might be alright, but I'd be perfectly happy with normal doors that swing open. I know that there are huge variables to take into account depending on material and style, but still, I'd like to have some idea.

If he could give a quick ballpark figure that would be great, if he'd have to spend time on it, I'd feel bad about taking up his time. Where is he located by the way?

I will pass on the details to him and see if he can put a quote together for u
He is based in Offaly but is doing 3 kitchens for me based on customers I have put him in touch with in Dublin
He is up here a bit more often due to this work
Pm me ur email and I will pass the quote on to u
I will see if he can do a few options for u
If u don't quote u don't get so no harm in putting something together for you

John

[Lord Sir Banter]

Lights out, sleep tight.

[Mellor]

Humans have horrific memories for details, and can easily be biased or led into creating false memories, especially around emotional events.

Funny you mention that today, I was reading about something called the Mandala effect yesterday. Where people share collective false memories. I imagine a lot of that is at play with politics and current events generally

[Guest]

@Dom, try Robeplan...approx 40% cheaper than sliderobes. I got them in my room and they're very good,

[Solksjaer!]

That chick on the hoisted jacks is hawt. Not a mention.


Ghey .

[Raoul Duke III]

Humans have horrific memories for details, and can easily be biased or led into creating false memories, especially around emotional events.

Well obviously. Clearly detached judgement >>>>>> emotional reaction.

Kinda shocked that anyone on a poker forum would suggest otherwise.

[Raoul Duke III]

Funny you mention that today, I was reading about something called the Mandala effect yesterday. Where people share collective false memories. I imagine a lot of that is at play with politics and current events generally

An example is the false narrative created for a lot of Trump supporters around the alleged awfulness of the Obama Administration.

It seems like the echo chamber nature of internet 'debate' only promotes and intensifies such false narratives.

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[AndyFatBastard]

Funny you mention that today, I was reading about something called the Mandala effect yesterday. Where people share collective false memories. I imagine a lot of that is at play with politics and current events generally

Don't be silly. Clearly it's caused by multiple contiguous realities becoming intertwined as a result of time travel fuckery. That's why there's no Sinbad movie where he plays a genie. Also explains the Berenstain/Berenstein duality.

[Tar.Aldarion]

Bitta L casei immunitas eh

Humans have horrific memories for details, and can easily be biased or led into creating false memories, especially around emotional events.

Everybody has false memories, when you recall any memory you have a chance of overwriting it when storing it again, it's not a read only file. One of the things that happens is if your memory of something is fuzzy your brain logically fills it in and saves the memory, when you recall that memory again it will be that made up scene. memories even change because we change over time, they have to pass through our cognitive filters, so even when you recall a memory correctly your view of what happened will be different.

"Its a good thing you aren't asked to recall a specific memory many, many times over several hours during a police interrogation and again later during a trial."

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[oleras]

Thanks for all the condolences guys.

Dark navy rather than black for a funeral suit ?

Buying rather than renting.

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[Tar.Aldarion]

Is that it? So those yogurts actually *mean* something?

We have very limited understanding of probiotics yet, I believe they are of use in some circumstances and can be prescribed. Anything written on a yogurt is for money, and I assume, vastly overstated.

[Strewelpeter]

Any suit thats not too loud is fine, doesn't even have to be a suit.

[Strewelpeter]

Probiotics >>> antibiotics except when you are talking about things like sepsis.

[AndyFatBastard]

As an IBS sufferer I can confirm that probiotics really help me. These ones are decent:

http://www.boots.ie/health-pharmacy/vitaminsandsupplements/digestive-health/bio-kult-capsules-30-10141895

Udo's Choice Super 8 probiotics are also great but expensive, and you have to keep them in the fridge. Most health stores stock em.


Apparently that's the primary function of the appendix nowadays. Even when you have diarrhea your appendix doesn't empty completely. Your gut flora repopulates from there.

[shano1888]

Funny you mention that today, I was reading about something called the Mandala effect yesterday. Where people share collective false memories. I imagine a lot of that is at play with politics and current events generally

Member Berries.

[AndyFatBastard]

Probiotics >>> antibiotics except when you are talking about things like sepsis.

[citation needed]

[Tar.Aldarion]

Any suit thats not too loud is fine, doesn't even have to be a suit.

I don't really have much to wear to funerals, I'm going to my uncles tomorrow. White shirt and a black tie is what I'll be in. All my suits are grey.

[6starpool]

I don't really have much to wear to funerals, I'm going to my uncles tomorrow. White shirt and a black tie is what I'll be in. All my suits are grey.

That's pretty much what I wear to even family funerals, with black Chinos. I have a dark zip cardigan type thing (but not a cardigan) I can wear too if needed.

[Kayroo]

With Hitch defeated, I will retire for the evening.

Any young contenders looking to take me on (except maybe Kayroo) will have to wait.

I assume I was excluded from young contenders on age grounds?

[Strewelpeter]

Apparently that's the primary function of the appendix nowadays. Even when you have diarrhea your appendix doesn't empty completely. Your gut flora repopulates from there.

You were listening to Steve Jones on IOT last week too

[DeadParrot]

Don't be silly. Clearly it's caused by multiple contiguous realities becoming intertwined as a result of time travel fuckery. That's why there's no Sinbad movie where he plays a genie. Also explains the Berenstain/Berenstein duality.

C-3PO had a silver leg
It's Sex AND the City not Sex IN the City
My all time, shit has changed one is there is no "...of the world" at the end of we are the champions

[AndyFatBastard]

You were listening to Steve Jones on IOT last week too

Never heard of him. Any good?

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[Trippie]

Is that true unemployment or how is it being measured?

[careca]

That recovery in unemployment is ridic. Was 15% a few years ago. Now 6.8% after a massive drop in last few months. Should be about 5.8% by the end of the year. It's very hard for unemployment to drop much below 5% (around 4% is essentially full employment), so either (a) big pay increases on the way, or (b) loads more Polish needed.

Hopefully they'll be sensible and push up minimum wage over €10 an hour, but leave social welfare rates unchanged, and then there's massive incentives for even the most workshy to hop on the unemployment bandwagon and you might be able to see employment down near 3% which would be astronomical.

serious question, is this going to blow up in our faces again ala 2008 and if so when would you predict it? Seriously thinking of flogging the gaff, renting for a few years and buying again when the market goes belly up.

[Solksjaer!]

Ole belated condolences.

[Solksjaer!]

Bitta L casei immunitas eh



Everybody has false memories, when you recall any memory you have a chance of overwriting it when storing it again, it's not a read only file. One of the things that happens is if your memory of something is fuzzy your brain logically fills it in and saves the memory, when you recall that memory again it will be that made up scene. memories even change because we change over time, they have to pass through our cognitive filters, so even when you recall a memory correctly your view of what happened will be different.

"Its a good thing you aren't asked to recall a specific memory many, many times over several hours during a police interrogation and again later during a trial."

I read this before albeit a somewhat different version .

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[careca]

This would be a crazy plan! Why would you sell against the trend? First rule of investing.

Incomes are only starting to rise now, there's a huge amount of great new jobs, so you have dual income households earning over €100k becoming a new minimum middle class standard. You also have a very sluggish supply of new homes. More money and demand, and the same old supply = oodles of cash for you if you hang around for a few years.
I'd be a lot more tempted to pour spare cash into modernising your home - excellent insulation, fancy kitchen and bathroom - the type of thing these high income couples will be looking for in a new home.

That's the real question though, when is a 'few years' iyo?

[RichieM]

That recovery in unemployment is ridic. Was 15% a few years ago. Now 6.8% after a massive drop in last few months. Should be about 5.8% by the end of the year. It's very hard for unemployment to drop much below 5% (around 4% is essentially full employment), so either (a) big pay increases on the way, or (b) loads more Polish needed.

Hopefully they'll be sensible and push up minimum wage over €10 an hour, but leave social welfare rates unchanged, and then there's massive incentives for even the most workshy to hop on the unemployment bandwagon and you might be able to see employment down near 3% which would be astronomical.

I would also be a big fan of increasing carers allowance to reduce the cost to the health service of long term stays in hospitals\assisted living facilities.

I think it was Keane who was wondering why we keep pouring more money into health and getting even worse trolley figures. Bed Blockers who they cannot discharge because nobody will take them home as it is a huge drop in income to do so is a big reason.

Slashing carers allowances during the recession should have went down as the biggest govt fuck up and money waste but for some reason went unnoticed. I am not sure what the cost of keeping people in hospital is or the cost of a bed in a nursing home but it is a lot higher than the pittance they throw carers.

Paying them 40k or 50k to keep people out of the main health service would be a marked improvement in quality of life and significantly increase the efficiency of the HSE. To some that might seem overly generous but people are essentially giving up their careers if they will be a full time carer for a medium to long term say over 8 years as they will fall behind significantly. There is also no time off and no respite so considering you work 24\365 its not exactly a high hourly rate.

Wins out on both fiscal and social sides but never going to happen alas.

[Guest]

I'd be a lot more tempted to pour spare cash into modernising your home - excellent insulation, fancy kitchen and bathroom - the type of thing these high income couples will be looking for in a new home.

Careca; I'd be very wary of spending on the house with regard to improving the selling price of the property

Insulation probably good, new kitchen/bathroom etc, no!

lot of that stuff does not hold value like you would think

+People put in their own kitchens etc when they move in!

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[Lord Sir Banter]

serious question, is this going to blow up in our faces again ala 2008 and if so when would you predict it? Seriously thinking of flogging the gaff, renting for a few years and buying again when the market goes belly up.

Are you selling pieces of this gambool? Sounds like banter.

It's the EU definition of unemployment, but there's two flaws in it.

Some people might have given up being in the 'actively searching for work' category, as so are counted as neither employed nor unemployed. E.g. stay at home mothers who've decided its not worth being in the workforce.

It doesn't count people who aren't working and are instead claiming disability payments, and its rather unquestioning to get a disability claim approved, so there may be people there who are de facto unemployed.

But thats the EU definition, and there isn't a realistically better definition.




This would be a crazy plan! Why would you sell against the trend? First rule of investing.

Incomes are only starting to rise now, there's a huge amount of great new jobs, so you have dual income households earning over €100k becoming a new minimum middle class standard. You also have a very sluggish supply of new homes. More money and demand, and the same old supply = oodles of cash for you if you hang around for a few years.

I'd be a lot more tempted to pour spare cash into modernising your home - excellent insulation, fancy kitchen and bathroom - the type of thing these high income couples will be looking for in a new home.

Quite possible to pour a lot of cash into an existing functional property that won't recoup it in market value. Careca, put a fireman's pole in it, be a great talking point.

[Strewelpeter]

Never heard of him. Any good?

Steve Jones the geneticist, Ah you do, Steve is a great lad altogether.

Re wrote and is generally thought to have improved On the origin of species by updating and making it readable in Almost like a whale
Anyway he was on an in our time episode about paratism last week and mentioned about the appendix having that role.

[ArmaniJeans]

Crash will happen about 18 months after terms like 'soft landing' become the norm in the papers. Run to da hills time then.

On a serious note trying to call the top (and deciding to sell-to-rent) is madness, every year you are wrong will cost you a lot in rent and a bit more in short term house price increases, double whammy.
Remember that those property pin guys were calling the previous top from around 2001 and they weren't actually correct until ~Sept 2008. And even then it never turned out quite as bad as many of them had prophesized.

[Lord Sir Banter]

100k construction jobs. weeeeeeeee

http://constructionnews.ie/cif-jobs-website/

Property Bingo

rent is dead money
Property ladder
safe as houses

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[Lord Sir Banter]

Raoul was proudly proclaiming during the crisis that he'd been calling the bubble since around then too, as if that wasn't a massive flaw in his forecasting ability.

Having said that I'd be highly apprehensive about having my wealth tied up in property in Australia as a long-term play. Their current property bubble puts even the Irish one to shame.

Recession proof. 25 years!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-07/the-recession-we-dont-have-to-have/8100090A

Property Bingo

Recession proof
soft landing
rent is dead money
Property ladder
safe as houses