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    Variance???

    Hey new member first time poster,I've been playing poker for 15 years never felt the need to vent or post in a forum although I have been on tilt before and did find solace in reading other peoples storys and scenarios. Anyways I'd just like to have someone elses opinion on this. For the record I'm not a person who believes that online poker is rigged or theres bots or any of that shit.

    Ok here we go....4 years ago I realised I had a massive advantage on other players of the game through knowledge skill and experience,after playing part time and friendly games for 10 years I started to concentrate and kept a record of my win/loss rates and decided it was a viable option to take up poker fulltime.

    Now I play 3 times a week in live tournaments and rack up about 40 hrs online in a mix of sng/mtts/tourneys. I studied the various bank roll management techniques and after going bust a few times due to lack of discipline I used the agrressive 5% technique starting off till my bankroll got sufficient enough and I could switch to 1% while still remaining profitable.I moved up levels pretty quick online and managed to make a weekly withdrawal of 400 euro on average.

    Things were going well and even when i had to move back down or would go a long stretch of time without profitable results I'd know it was variance and when I looked over my hands and history I couldn't complain about the way I played.

    Now the bad news,in February of this year I ran really really bad instead of cashing out 400 no matter what I started going weeks without being able to cashout anything at all,I had to move down levels again and again my bankroll halved within 2 months without cashing out a dime.

    So I took a break Id enough money saved and my bankroll was still big enough to come back to so I fucked off to Australia for a couple of months. I thought I was just on a bad run and the break would do me good I was wrong again,things got even worse. Ive dropped 8000 euro in the last 2 months and for the last 4 days Ive been playing 7 dollar 6max games with the exact same results.

    I use holdem manager as my hub and the results would make the most optimistic of poker player sick to their stomach,after studying my play and realising I was accumulating my chips mainly at the start and middle of games I looked when I was losing them.I knew myself I was running bad losing way more flips than I should and watching my overpair get setted or flushed out time after time but I still maintained that its the variance and Ive hit sets and flushes before the other way round (on occasion lol) etc etc

    So heres my all in stats for my last 10000 (all in preflop hands) and take into account I dont play cash games I've been ahead all in a whopping 72% I've won out of these 10000 hands only 8.4%. I was absolutely shocked in awe almost at the results I said that cant be right maths wise even if it does feel like that sometimes.I removed the flip 45-55% hands from the equation and it just reads worse.

    Basically I cant win an allin to save my life at the minute I still feel like Im still crushing the game my plays and reads are profitable but the all ins are not,I know this has turned into a long meandering venting session but if anyone out there has any advice???Turn into a nit and fold every all in even with the monsters??? I've just always played the game with maths on my mind and after seeinf the figures Im wondering when the fuck the maths is gonna start evening out again?

    #2
    You could maybe take up playing the Theremin

    Shocked in awe
    Marvellous.

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      #3
      You’re biggest likely leak is luck, if you can level the luck leak you’ll have it licked.

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        #4
        Originally posted by Morihei View Post
        You could maybe take up playing the [URL="http://youtu.be/w5qf9O6c20o"]Theremin[/UR.
        ...that's actually fucking cool to look at, never heard of that before...

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          #5
          You're playing SNGs, right? Are you sure you're not just looking at exit hands? 8.4% over 10000 72% hands is literally impossible. You'd be more likely to win the Lotto and the Euromillions on the same weekend. What would make this figure make sense is if it only counts your last hand in a SNG. So the 8.4% of exit hands is all the times you won the SNG with that hand. There is a HEM filter which shows Tournament All-in EV. HEM should really remove it, because it's a ludicrous, misleading stat. It's a common mistake amongst SNG players to think they're running some ridiculous amount of bad because of this terrible filter.
          Last edited by AndyFatBastard; 22-09-14, 09:30.
          "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

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            #6
            I'd personally get someone to look over your game in depth, ya may have easily changed something or are losing more in places without realising it. Seems way too big of a sample for a downswing, although not impossible but very unlikely its all runbad
            take sweets from strangers, lose everything!

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              #7
              You should really reconsider your choice of username

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                #8
                I'm in same boat fella, cnt win flip to save my life, loosing wen 85% preflop and considering openin a new account as loosing a 4 way all in with qq < ak vs ak vs ak was last straw

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                  #9
                  Everyone should be told this before starting to play poker - Poker is a bitch of a game! If you play it long enough, you will go on losing runs that you thought were impossible, which will make it seem like the game is rigged against you personally. It happens to everyone but it also works the other way. If you are above average, you will also go on extended winning runs that make the game seem easy and can lure you into thinking that you are way better than you actually are. For this reason, being able to analyse your own game objectively in poker is extremely difficult. Short term results really mean nothing.

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                    #10
                    Nah it was so rigged against me I didn't get the upswings.
                    X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                    Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                    $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

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                      #11
                      If you enjoy variance, try putting some volume into the hyper 2x shootout sats to the sunday milly / wcoop events !

                      Absolutely mental stuff happens if you put in a lot of volume..... strangely addictive games too...

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                        #12
                        Originally posted by Youngfella View Post
                        I'm in same boat fella, cnt win flip to save my life, loosing wen 85% preflop and considering openin a new account as loosing a 4 way all in with qq < ak vs ak vs ak was last straw
                        Who won ?

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                          #13
                          Can we have a best of 5 allinking vs youngfella heads up plz.
                          Go big or go homeless.

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                            #14
                            Originally posted by mdoug View Post
                            Can we have a best of 5 allinking vs youngfella heads up plz.
                            doug is the king of variance, he's going to ride that train all the way to eight figures. These guys trying to get variance to 'even itself out' are idiots, embrace the variance and hope it's positive. If it's negative, what's the most you're going to lose? If it's positive, you can win all the money in the world.
                            Poker Podcast Playlist

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                              #15
                              Running shit in life, running great at the gambling. Variance baby!
                              Go big or go homeless.

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                                #16
                                If this is a genuine first post ( probably a flip in that regard )

                                What a welcome to the IPB.

                                Assuming a genuine post, seems it might be prudent to spend a few quid and have some hand histories analysed.

                                http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...ad.php?t=19780
                                "Being wrong is erroneously associated with failure, when, in fact, to be proven wrong should be celebrated, for it elevates someone to a new level of understanding."

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