Originally posted by Wombatman
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Love when people do things like this, just on my way to tesco, car pulls in at the traffic lights and starts talking to me. i take out my earphones and he is like, "you are awesome, and don't let anybody ever make you think different", then he shook my hand. Then to the girl driving, "now drive!" and off they went. His hand was warm like the feeling conveyed.
Maybe they thought I was gay and were campaigning for equality
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haven't seen it myself yet but am looking forward to watching it.
B.B. King: The Life of RileyThis too shall pass.
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Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View PostLove when people do things like this, just on my way to tesco, car pulls in at the traffic lights and starts talking to me. i take out my earphones and he is like, "you are awesome, and don't let anybody ever make you think different", then he shook my hand. Then to the girl driving, "now drive!" and off they went. His hand was warm like the feeling conveyed.
Maybe they thought I was gay and were campaigning for equalityX can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!
$ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $
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Originally posted by hotspur View PostI see Paddy Power have priced up each constituency in the referendum.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politi...rp_ids=2041388
The oul biddy's will follow suit I'm sure. Low student population too.
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Originally posted by hotspur View PostI see Paddy Power have priced up each constituency in the referendum.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politi...rp_ids=2041388
Laois / Offaly no vote is value Shirley @5/4 & Sligo/ North Leitrim yes vote @ 6/4 and hope there's a low turnout of Leitrim people.Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers
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I currently am working on a table with all the relevant constituencies, their odds, and their votes in relevant referendums. The fact that this is precisely how the bloody thing was priced up in the first place probably makes it a boring and silly exercise.
Especially boring because the data set I'm working off requires manual calculation of %. Ugh.
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Originally posted by TheJiggaman View PostThe impression I get in my place (Tipp South) is that it'll be a no vote here, especially with Matty McGrath coming on Séamus Martin's morning show on Tipp FM saying he'll be voting no and encouraging others to do so too.
The oul biddy's will follow suit I'm sure. Low student population too.Originally posted by Pat Mustard View PostAh that's a laugh. 2 novelty bets for me.
Laois / Offaly no vote is value Shirley @5/4 & Sligo/ North Leitrim yes vote @ 6/4 and hope there's a low turnout of Leitrim people.
I'm not sure what the national average will be, I have always thought 52-58% range. Let's choose Paddy Power's current 59.5% line. This means looking at constituencies over 9.5% difference in conservatism in the table below.
It may not look like you are getting much bang for your buck with these odds, but we are dealing with the law of large numbers here as well. The likes of 8/15 for Donegal NE with 14.5% difference, 8/11 Cavan-Mon with 14%, Tipp N 4/7 with 13% are probably decent bets.
Laois-Offaly offering 5/4 with a 10.5% difference on my table is value, and Mayo at 4/6 with 11.5%.
Now PP have the number of No constituencies line at 10.5. According to my table 8 particular constituencies should vote no, 1 bang on the 50%, 3 are close enough, and then there are 3 unknown but 2 of which are good odds on with them. So their line seems good.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostMe and courier are trying to work out who is most drunk: difficulty level tranniesOriginally posted by PSV58 View PostPray for Hitch and CC
It's just beyond funny, waking up with hair matted with my own blood, and a pain in my arse from falling over.Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.
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Originally posted by CourierCollie View PostAh, bollix. We shouldn't be let out without supervision. Last memory was of falling over several times,while trying to lift Hitch off the ground... asking people to call an ambulance...
It's just beyond funny, waking up with hair matted with my own blood, and a pain in my arse from falling over.
Holy shit man, you go hell for leather. Was Hitch with you the last time? Bad influence that lad.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Originally posted by Lazare View PostAgain?
Holy shit man, you go hell for leather. Was Hitch with you the last time? Bad influence that lad.
Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostGetting a sense for the first time that this referendum might actually fail, must look into the polling data properly when this hangover abates.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostGetting a sense for the first time that this referendum might actually fail, must look into the polling data properly when this hangover abates.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostGetting a sense for the first time that this referendum might actually fail, must look into the polling data properly when this hangover abates.
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Originally posted by mdoug View PostHad a nice bit bet on some chick in the auld tennis, 1 set up and 5-5 but bossing in the 2nd and the other beour just retires and my bet becomes void :'(.
Shit start to a hungover Sunday, that is all.Go big or go homeless.
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Originally posted by mdoug View PostOn this, any of ye gamblers know sites that pay out regardless of retirement? I wanna gamble on who goes through, not have some bets voided
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Originally posted by DMMurray View PostImpossible to fail on the current numbers. But a little bit of general anxiety in the Yes camp might be a good thing, to ensure there is a good turn-out (particularly younger voters).
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View PostShouldn't have let the homophobia argument be defined by fucking Waters and O'Brien at the start.
The simple fact is that there is no reason for anyone to vote no other than they are a homophobic cunt.His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
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Originally posted by White Knight View PostDid you not see the polls before the British election? And the differing result on the day.
Divorce is probably the most similar case to Marriage referendum though (in terms of the typical Yes/No voter - apologies for stereotyping). It started about 70-30, went to 50-50 and 'Yes' barely carried. The polls in the current referendum are always 70%+ and have never trended back to 50-50, where 'No' would have a chance. I'll be amazed if 'No' vote carries. I will give up my faith in numbers and abandon my atheist/secular views on life and immediately subscribe to Iona/Coir/random Irish nut-job group if that happens.
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View PostThe simple fact is that there is no reason for anyone to vote no other than they are a homophobic cunt.
Assuming anything over than half of the electorate who actually vote next will week will actually be voting on the questions on the paper is a mistake imo.
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View PostThe simple fact is that there is no reason for anyone to vote no other than they are a homophobic cunt.
i think a good few of the government politicians who have been weighing in should have laid low and I don't know what the fuck companies like Google were thinking throwing their 2 cents in,that was only ever going to be counter productive
Many of the no voters will be homophobic cunts no doubt but I don't think all of them are.Last edited by Guest; 17-05-15, 16:03.
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Originally posted by ghostface View PostDo you have to be a bit of a prick to play inter county in Ulster? Just seems like giving each other stick all the time. Prob applied to all counties good come back from Tyrone
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Originally posted by Lplated View PostRemember reading research on an exit poll done after a previous referendum - at least half of the reasons given for voting against had nothing to do with the referendum itself, but rather things like 'against the government', 'if all the parties are for it i'm suspicious', 'govt still haven't delivered promise during election', 'i dont like changes to the constitution', 'courts will decide differently no matter how we vote' etc etc etc
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Originally posted by PSV58 View PostPhrases like this are why Yes side are losing support. they needed more dignified interventions like Ursula Halligan during the week and less of the shrill sanctimonious sloganeering from platitude queens that we have been bashed over the head with.
i think a good few of the government politicians who have been weighing in should have laid low and I don't know what the fuck companies like Google were thinking throwing their 2 cents in,that was only ever going to be counter productive
Many of the no voters will be homophobic cunts no doubt but I don't think all of them are.
Any no vote imo has homophobia as it’s foundation, but there are varying degrees of homophobia. Some people are open to shedding it through reasoned argument, some never will.
Ramming the homophobe label down the former group’s throat will only cement their no vote, the latter should just be ignored.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Originally posted by Lplated View PostRemember reading research on an exit poll done after a previous referendum - at least half of the reasons given for voting against had nothing to do with the referendum itself, but rather things like 'against the government', 'if all the parties are for it i'm suspicious', 'govt still haven't delivered promise during election', 'i dont like changes to the constitution', 'courts will decide differently no matter how we vote' etc etc etc
Assuming anything over than half of the electorate who actually vote next will week will actually be voting on the questions on the paper is a mistake imo.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Originally posted by TheJiggaman View Postlol. That's code for "I am homophobic but don't want to say it"
The point was that people who vote don't necessarily vote Yes/No on the basis of the topic of the election.
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Originally posted by CHD View PostI've met more No voters in Wicklow than Yes voters. The young people don't really go out and vote and I live in the civilised part of the county. All the rednecks will vote No too. 8/1 for No, might have to stick a £1 on.Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers
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