Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - BabyforV

[Raoul Duke III]

Probably bad that I had assumed Robin Williams was dead already.

He had the twinkly-eyed grin thing cornered.

[Wesley Harms]

Probably bad that I had assumed Robin Williams was dead already.

He had the twinkly-eyed grin thing cornered.

Found myself reading your old blog last night, MOAR, it's like you died in 2009

[KevIRL]

Football comp being run by a mate (runs all the golf comps, gets quite big prizepools). Pick one from each section get points based on each selection, pretty self explanatory really, €10 entry and 2 entries p/p allowed.

edit, pots 1-4 league points. pots 5-7 goalscorers, pot 9 clean sheets, pot 10 first manager to be sacked, pot 11 penalty saves

Any interest in this ?

[Guest]

I must tell my wife you pass on your regards.

Took one hour of letting it ring to get someone to answer, who put me on hold for another 15 minutes and then told me that someone would ring me tomorrow

[Megatron]

Question about Coconut oil

Is this one healthy for cooking with

http://www.tesco.com/groceries/product/details/?id=256412443

or a cheap knock off?

And where is good in England (Emmet ) to get reasonably priced almond oil


Cheers!

What are the benfits of Coconut oil v Olive Oil?

Any interest in this ?

I'll give it a shot. Where do I ship the loots?

[TheImprover]

@ Megatron, so are you going to get another dog?

[KevIRL]

What are the benfits of Coconut oil v Olive Oil?



I'll give it a shot. Where do I ship the loots?

You can send to me and I'll pass it on if you like. Will pm bank deets later after work

[TheImprover]

I have a golf Buddy world for sale for any golfers that might be interested, it's practically new.

[Emmet]

Question about Coconut oil

Is this one healthy for cooking with

http://www.tesco.com/groceries/product/details/?id=256412443

or a cheap knock off?

And where is good in England (Emmet ) to get reasonably priced almond oil


Cheers!

Re:1 - http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...&postcount=977

Re:2 - No idea, what do you want it for? Never even considered buying it! Had a quick google, top google returned sites would suggest it's a snake oil to me from a 7second glance. Here's a KTC version anyway http://www.spicesofindia.co.uk/acata...FY7KtAodaykAKw

[ArmaniJeans]

Just 5 days until the start of the 2014/15 Premier League Predictions Competition.

http://www.irishpokerboards.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19675

This is a competition that anyone can win - in other rival competitions you, yes You, are dead money.

[Iago]

Firstly, I'm not anti-mortgage (regardless of the below post) but people need to spend more time thinking about these big decisions in their lives (not aimed at anybody here, just people in general)

Wont the vast majority of people be taking a mortgage for the €200k meaning no 5% earnings?

Maybe initially, but it doesn't mean no earnings, just lower earnings.

He's obviously planning to not have to blow the retirement wad on rent
€900 over 20 years vs €1100 (roughly for rent,probably more) over infinity

It's an interesting comparable imo. I'm quite possibly missing something but that is where the majority of the rent=dead money argument goes. If you are not planning on travelling the world and moving every 2 years, the flexibility isn't really a bonus.

You see, what we have here is selection bias €900 mortgage v's €1,100 rent to make it look worse instantly whereas in truth, you would simply find a place for €900 a month that was close to or exceeded the place the mortgage was for.

It's also, imho of course, not as simple as saying that if you aren't moving every 2 years that the flexibility isn't really a bonus.

Humans aren't great planners. We find it very hard to either allow for and indeed desire, delayed gratification and on top of that we (even the most pessimistic amongst us) believe that everything will remain rosy forever.

Lets take the above for example. I have no intention of moving constantly or travelling the world and therefore flexibility isn't a bonus. I have found an area that I really like and I want to set up home in, and I've found a house that's exactly what I (and my partner if relevant) wants and desires so I'm going to put in an offer. All good so far, but what if

- 1 year down the line my variable mortgage is now 6.25% instead of 4.25%

- 3 years down the line, my lovely neighbours have moved out and some undesirables have moved in

- 5 years down the line, I've been offered a new job. It's perfect and a big increase in salary which will help with the increased mortgage, but it's a 2 hour commute away

- 6 years down the line, they've actually managed to get permission for that sewage treatment plant half a mile down the road and construction has started

- 8 years down the line, I/we have a partner/2 kids/a zebra and the house isn't really suitable any more because it's a bachelor pad / miles from work / nowhere near a school / or a zoo

None of these things might happen, but then again they all (and more) might well happen. We're tied in for 20 years, and unless we have had a massive upsurge in the property market then we're taking a bath on our investment.

After 8 years on a mortgage of €160k over 20 years(allowing for you having a €40k deposit) and getting a mortgage rate of 4.25% (and hoping it hasn't raised in the meantime) your monthly payment would be around €990

- Your €40k is gone
- You've paid €95k in mortgage repayments
- You still have an outstanding mortgage of €119k

- You've paid probably around €10k in various fees and charges with getting a property
- Allow for €20k in furnishings, gardens, whatever over that period
- Allow for €10k in wear and tear/replacements/changes of mind
- Property tax of €2.5k (if it hasn't increased by then, and your house stays at €200k value)

- Allowing for being able to save €100 a month on top of your mortgage initially you would have €12k after 8 years @ 5%
- However you've probably eaten all of that with the above mentioned furnishings/wear and tear and you may even have other loans to cover it

Overall you have spent €177.5k, and you still owe the bank €119k. You now need to get at least €300k for the house to break even & that's if you can sell it quickly or indeed at all.

Incidentally if the rate did increase by 2% (from 4.25% to 6.25%) then you will have paid
- An additional €17k in mortgage payments between years 2-8
- Your remaining mortgage would still be €119k

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On the other hand if you were renting for 8 years, you could move on an annual basis if needs be and financially your position would be much better

- You would still have spent €95k in rent payments
- However your €40k invested @ 5% ( and adding €100 a month as in the above example) is now worth €72k
- You haven't had to pay for legal costs, furnishings, property tax or wear & tear

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

but what if
- none of the above happened and you stayed in the same property for the full 20 years and were perfectly happy with no rate changes, no dodgy neighbours, no inconvenient jobs and a house that was big enough for all and sundry.

Hah, blows my theory out of the water right?

Well that depends.

- What's the house worth after 20 years?

If it was still worth €200k for example then the net position for both is as outlined below

Maybe I'm doing the mortgage holder a disservice by saying the house will still only be worth €200k in 20 years, however I'm also allowing them savings and assuming that the furnishing/wear and tear /property tax costs are being funded by some mystical pot of money somewhere rather than a loan or reducing their saving capacity

Besides which, the value of the asset only matters if you sell it, which our hypothetical buyer isn't planning on doing.

Ask yourself this though, if we made the property worth 50% more than we paid for it (so €300k) Is the lack of flexibility and being tied to one location regardless of circumstance or opportunity worth a measly €100 a week for 20 years?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Interesting calculator suggested by Emmet, on whether it's better to rent or buy

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html?_r=1

[Iago]

Incidentally, and to the point about "blowing the retirement wad" on rent.

Once you get to €200k in invested money at 5% your rent is covered every year without touching your wad at all

[Megatron]

@ Megatron, so are you going to get another dog?

Yeah am trying to source one today. Going for another Miniature Schnauzer

You can send to me and I'll pass it on if you like. Will pm bank deets later after work

What's Pot 8?

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[Denny Crane]

Shame the man has left us. It's the only time I've felt some emotion about a celebrity dying.

+1

[CHDad]

Ugh. Missed the 8am train to Russia due to a tragic life decision to drink shots of absinthe until 7am.

Take a picture of the most Russian looking fucker you see.

[DeadParrot]

A few things

You see, what we have here is selection bias €900 mortgage v's €1,100 rent to make it look worse instantly whereas in truth, you would simply find a place for €900 a month that was close to or exceeded the place the mortgage was for

Where are you seeing somewhere to live for €900 p/m. Somewhere you are happy to live?

http://www.daft.ie/dublin-city/houses-to-rent/?s%5Barea_type%5D=on&s%5Bmxp%5D=900&s%5Bmxb%5D=2&s%5Badvanced%5D=1&s%5Bfurn%5D=1

[IMG]Allowing for being able to save €100 a month on top of your mortgage initially you would have €12k after 8 years @ 5%[/IMG]
You'd have €10,080
and where on earth are you getting an investment deal @ 5% for €100 a month?

and....

Incidentally, and to the point about "blowing the retirement wad" on rent.

Once you get to €200k in invested money at 5% your rent is covered every year without touching your wad at all

€100 p/m *12 +5% =€1260
200,000 / 1260 = 158.73 years

Nice long retirement so


actually on reread you are saying that the 40k deposit is instead turned into a 5% investment vehicle? is that right?

Your post is excellent but I feel it lacks grounding.

[Flushdraw]

Good post Iago, but if you're saying that you'll put €0 into furnishing and wear and tear into a rented accommodation over 20 years, then you be crazy!

[KevIRL]

Yeah am trying to source one today. Going for another Miniature Schnauzer



What's Pot 8?

Newbies. Goals scored by each

Edit - sent you on the original mail

[Flushdraw]

Any interest in this ?

Give me a quick example of the final totals from say, pots 1-4. Are the numbers beside them multiples? Does he post a full list of all runners and riders before the comp begins so that we all know who we're up against, and that no 'unknown' super selection will come out of the woodwork half way through the season?

[Iago]

Where on earth are you getting an investment deal @ 5% for €100 a month?

I'm not It's just an example to illustrate the point.

In the example of a renter, the deal is on the €40k with you adding to the pot and I wanted to keep a consistent return for the mortgage holder.

That's not to say that 5% isn't achievable at that low level, but you would need to be making risky investments to do so. Probably fairer to look at something like 2.5-3% through high dividend paying companies with the dividend reinvested in shars if you only had €100 a month to add to a savings fund.

Good post Iago, but if you're saying that you'll put €0 into furnishing and wear and tear into a rented accommodation over 20 years, then you be crazy!

I'm not saying you wouldn't, I'm saying that either

- You're moving often enough that it doesn't become an issue for you as a renter
- The landlord picks up the tab (which they should for most things, whether the renter is happy with the quality or not is another thing.

Of course, even adding in an allowance for wear & tear or specific things that a renter may want doesn't really change the overall point.

[KevIRL]

Give me a quick example of the final totals from say, pots 1-4. Are the numbers beside them multiples? Does he post a full list of all runners and riders before the comp begins so that we all know who we're up against, and that no 'unknown' super selection will come out of the woodwork half way through the season?

Numbers beside are multipliers Tony. So arsenal winning a game will net you 18pts whereas WBA winning a game will get you 33 points.

Full list of runners and riders is always made available as siim as the comp starts and there will be live in running updates as well so you can track progress.

A few on here play the golf competitions and can vouch for them. What email you currently using and I'll send on the mail about it

[Strewelpeter]

I know a few people who have been working, living and renting in Europe and the USA since the 1980's and are now facing into some very tough decisions about how to get into and through retirement. Returning to Ireland is going to be a very difficult proposition for them.

[Emmet]

@Iago, add this to your post above.

Better to buy or Rent calculator..

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html?_r=0

[Iago]

A few things


Where are you seeing somewhere to live for €900 p/m. Somewhere you are happy to live?
http://www.daft.ie/dublin-city/house...&s%5Bfurn%5D=1

Well, that depends on your perspective doesn't it. Do you need a 2 bedroom place right now? If you're only renting why wouldn't a 1 bedroomed place do?

We also ended up at €990 rather than €900 and I could equally argue that your options for a minimum 2 bedroomed home at €200k or less are limited in the Dublin market as well.

http://www.daft.ie/dublin-city/houses-for-sale/?s%5Bmxp%5D=200000&s%5Bmnb%5D=2

That's not to say you don't have a fair point, but we have to try and get some sort of reasonable comparison between the two options.

If we extended the rent to €1,100 a month then the numbers come closer but you're still better off financially renting.

Net position of -€105.3k v's -€119.5k

If you extended that out from 20 years (once the mortgage is paid) then you are obviously losing money for every month that you pay rent v's no mortgage. However you should also have built up a fund that should be covering either a large portion or indeed all of that rental cost.

Either way my overriding point (which I may not have been clear about) is that rent is far from dead money.

€100 p/m *12 +5% =€1260
200,000 / 1260 = 158.73 years

Nice long retirement so


actually on reread you are saying that the 40k deposit is instead turned into a 5% investment vehicle? is that right?

Your post is excellent but I feel it lacks grounding.

You're right on the interest, the calculator was compounding monthly instead of annually (but the mistake was the same for both)

I would disagree that the post lacks grounding, but I accept that I probably tried to convey too many thoughts in one post.

The €200k element (which is just an aribitrary amount to get to the rental figure in interest) isn't something that people have on Day 1 and is actually a secondary point, namely that by the time your mortgage is paid off, if you were investing your deposit + additional monies in the meantime (as a renter) then you have every opportunity to have enough money to cover the cost of the rent that will continue to accrue after the mortgage payments have stopped.

Generally when people talk about rent = dead money they are suggesting that by paying a mortgage they are essentially releasing equity in an asset that will have a value at the end of a period. They are also correctly surmising that you don't have the capability to do that in a rental situation.

What they either don't, won't or are ignorant of is that the cost of releasing that equity is higher than the cost of renting. While the rent itself doesn't contribute to your net worth it does reduce your cost of accommodation over the same period and allows you to drive earnings through an investment vehicle instead

- You don't pay a deposit of €40k, instead you invest it and see it grow
- You don't pay property tax (although some will argue it's included in the rental price)
- You don't pay for furnishings and wear & tear
- You don't pay management fees (if applicable)

and on top of that you get flexibility and freedom.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It's not so much that a mortgage is a bad decision, because it really isn't. It is however a financial decision that is spanning a huge amount of time and nobody knows what changes will happen over that time period.

We have a preoccupation with owning a home and the stability that brings to a family, but actually our laws are so heavily weighted in favour of a tenant that you still get a lot of stability as a renter.

[Iago]

I know a few people who have been working, living and renting in Europe and the USA since the 1980's and are now facing into some very tough decisions about how to get into and through retirement. Returning to Ireland is going to be a very difficult proposition for them.

This is a very good point. I have family abroad who are quite comfortable, but as above can never return, or at least not without significant financial hardship.

@Iago, add this to your post above.

Better to buy or Rent calculator..

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...ator.html?_r=0

That's excellent, thanks!

[Bubbleking]

was reading this morning of a government proposal to keep Junior Docs in Ireland where they are potentially scrapping the interest on my student loan. Could be worth over 25k which is pretty sweet

[Iago]

€100 p/m *12 +5% =€1260
200,000 / 1260 = 158.73 years

Nice long retirement so

Just on this. I accept that the numbers are high (and probably seem, and may be unrealistic to many)

If you could save €600 a month for 20 years @ 4% interest you would be at your €200k mark.

If you had a €40k deposit (as in the example above) the requirement drops to around €350 a month.

I'm not saying it's easy, nor that it's doable by everyone as circumstances, opportunities, costs differ for us all but isn't it a great goal to have?

For example, I spend nearly €900 a month (on average) on vacations/socialising/eating out/coffees (so much for my delayed gratification) but if I reduced that by just a third I could have €100k in 20 years with no other additions to the fund.

We all spend money we don't need to spend, to whatever level and then wonder where it's gone. If we were disciplined enough to actually make that money work for us, instead of the other way around, then I believe we'd all be far happier for it.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Right, I'm off the soapbox for another while at least. Too much time on my hands obviously

[bp_me]

I assume these 4-5% interest returns are based on stocks, etc... in which case are you taking account of CGT liabilities in these calculations?

[Iago]

I assume these 4-5% interest returns are based on stocks, etc... in which case are you taking account of CGT liabilities in these calculations?

Well it's an averaging mechanism as much as anything else in order to highlight a point.

Your aim would be to try and beat inflation & taxes due by 4-5% overall with your portfolio (an aim that's getting more and more difficult as this cycle of low interest rates continues)

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[FeetMagic]

Thought you and that mate always go on ridiculous benders?

[Guest]

Re:1 - http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...&postcount=977

Re:2 - No idea, what do you want it for? Never even considered buying it! Had a quick google, top google returned sites would suggest it's a snake oil to me from a 7second glance. Here's a KTC version anyway http://www.spicesofindia.co.uk/acata...FY7KtAodaykAKw

Thanks!

As for the Almond oil, cooking

[AndyFatBastard]

Got an invite from a headhunting crew to apply for Associate Prof in an Oz uni (am currently a lowly lecturer so its a big jump up the rankings). AUD130,000. Was telling the wife yesterday and she was surprisingly keen. Think I'm going to go for it.

Australia is class TBF

[FeetMagic]

Thoughts on this FF team? Probably invested too much in MF and too little in defense but just look at that midfield!

[Theresa]

Got an invite from a headhunting crew to apply for Associate Prof in an Oz uni (am currently a lowly lecturer so its a big jump up the rankings). AUD130,000. Was telling the wife yesterday and she was surprisingly keen. Think I'm going to go for it.

Where is the Uni?

[Tar.Aldarion]

Couple of people in work eat this now and no other food:


It's a powder you mix with water and oil to give complete sustenance. No more food eh? Yum??

[Dice75]

Thoughts on this FF team? Probably invested too much in MF and too little in defense but just look at that midfield!

Downgrade Luis & Howard, upgrade Barkley

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[bp_me]

Well it's an averaging mechanism as much as anything else in order to highlight a point.

Your aim would be to try and beat inflation & taxes due by 4-5% overall with your portfolio (an aim that's getting more and more difficult as this cycle of low interest rates continues)

Thanks. Makes sense.

Couple of people in work eat this now and no other food:


It's a powder you mix with water and oil to give complete sustenance. No more food eh? Yum??

Interesting article about it on the verge.

http://www.theverge.com/2014/7/17/5893221/soylent-survivor-one-month-living-on-lab-made-liquid-nourishment

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[6starpool]

Kev, I'll do that football thing, send me any relevant details, will get to it later.

Also, I'm assuming Iago is not working today anyhow with all those wordy posts. I wish I hadn't bought nearly 9 years ago, but at least it's a shared mortgage with a tracker and 100k off the capital so far. My options are limited by it though for sure.

[FeetMagic]

It's a powder you mix with water and oil to give complete sustenance. No more food eh? Yum??

Why would anyone put themselves through such suffering

[Micknail]

Couple of people in work eat this now and no other food:

Is it green?

[Emmet]

Why would anyone put themselves through such suffering

The general education level surrounding nutrition is an absolute joke.

[Tar.Aldarion]

Good read, I could see it being very boring and just wanting to eat food...and to chew.

Why would anyone put themselves through such suffering

They seem to like it. I could see it being used as a breakfast and lunch and eating normally in the evening. Constantly seems like hell.

Also some people (read 90% of people) just can't eat properly, cough... no veg...being the worst offenders. And they have been using this to get vitamins they've never had before haha.

Is it green?

Only if you add green food colouring

[DeadParrot]

Thoughts on this FF team? Probably invested too much in MF and too little in defense but just look at that midfield!

There are better options than Bruce, Lukaku, Wisdom, Vlaar for those prices imo

[The Aul Switcharoo]

So some Irish guy at the Europeans has run the fastest ever qualifying heat in the history of the games. At least that's what I thought I heard on the sports news.

All above board yea?

I wonder does his grant money cover all the drugs

[oleras]

Has anyone seen The Knick yet ? Sounds good.

[DeadParrot]

Why would anyone put themselves through such suffering

Dude in the article lost 12 pounds in 3 weeks

[Wombatman]

Couple of people in work eat this now and no other food:


It's a powder you mix with water and oil to give complete sustenance. No more food eh? Yum??

They really called it Soylent????

[The C Kid]

So some Irish guy at the Europeans has run the fastest ever qualifying heat in the history of the games. At least that's what I thought I heard on the sports news.

All above board yea?

Not sure you heard that right?

Only Barr won his heat this morning no?

Might be another athlete as the track is running ridiculously fast, loads running PBs. One of the British girls said it's like running on air after she ran a PB there.

[Tar.Aldarion]

They really called it Soylent????

Yup, which i imagine helped it get it's crowd source funding and millions in investment.


Mmmm people

[TheImprover]

Yeah am trying to source one today. Going for another Miniature Schnauzer

Would you not consider a rescue? You should look into anyway.

[ArmaniJeans]

So some Irish guy at the Europeans has run the fastest ever qualifying heat in the history of the games. At least that's what I thought I heard on the sports news.

All above board yea?

The 400H guy? - presumably the 'fastest ever qualifying heat' is a relatively slow time anyway as the best runners will ease off after the last hurdle. No need to go full out until the semi finals and final.

[FeetMagic]

Dude in the article lost 12 pounds in 3 weeks

Would have done similar intaking the same calories & nutrients from healthy food sources. I mean how could anyone give up food. Can see it being used as meal replacement especially breakfast tbf but not permanently.

[The C Kid]

The 400H guy? - presumably the 'fastest ever qualifying heat' is a relatively slow time anyway as the best runners will ease off after the last hurdle. No need to go full out until the semi finals and final.

Barr was only the 8th fastest qualifier in those heats today anyway.

[Keane]

Good read, I could see it being very boring and just wanting to eat food...and to chew.


They seem to like it. I could see it being used as a breakfast and lunch and eating normally in the evening. Constantly seems like hell.

Also some people (read 90% of people) just can't eat properly, cough... no veg...being the worst offenders. And they have been using this to get vitamins they've never had before haha.



Only if you add green food colouring

I had a week or two supply of it last year at some stage out of interest. I found I was getting absolutely ravenous in the afternoon because I didn't take any notice of the part where you're meant to add oil.

The one thing I noticed when I was drinking it was that from day one my sleep was unbelievably restful.

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