Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - BabyforV

[LuckyLloyd]

I'm lost at the suggestion that if 10% of people don't pay their bill that we (the 90%) should bow down to their wishes and stop charging?

Doesn't seem very democratic.

That's not what was suggested

[6starpool]

That's not what was suggested

Yes it was. If 90% pay then they agree (however grudgingly) to pay, but you say that if 10% don't pay the government will have to withdraw the charge as it will be too unworkable to go through the prosecutions for the courts/government.

Is that not what you said?

[dobby]

Souness should be a good lol here trying to give an impartial analysis. Game was wide open til Smalling and there for the taking for either team. Backs to the wall job now.

[Tar.Aldarion]

I mentioned here a while back that I was thinking of starting Babylon 5. I'm now in season 4 and while it is awfully dated in places with some hammy acting it is a story that is improving all the time and really gripping with less and less filler episodes as it goes on.

For anyone who likes scifi and is willing to forgive the flaws above (and a slow start I thought) it really is worth a watch if you haven't seen it.

Cool, I have it all downloaded for 2 or 3 years sitting there, must give it a go. Loved the books when i was young.

[LuckyLloyd]

I was thinking yesterday that a Waterford Whisper article about millions of people not protesting against water charges would have been apt.

I think it is at least reasonable to say that the volume of public protesting has exceeded expectations. You'd accept that yes?

[dobby]

Lol, two stone wallers turned down on their own pitch. Hate refs who bottle decisions after a big call earlier in a match.

With the first one, even though it's a 100% pen, you could argue the ref didn't see it. Second one is inexcusable from the ref. But I'm obviously not complaining.

[LuckyLloyd]

Yes it was. If 90% pay then they agree (however grudgingly) to pay, but you say that if 10% don't pay the government will have to withdraw the charge as it will be too unworkable to go through the prosecutions for the courts/government.

Is that not what you said?

I'm not talking about 'should' I'm talking about 'might' or 'will' happen if there are significant rates of non compliance, I.e. the machinations of what will happen if those who have taken to the streets follow though and refuse to pay.

[Raoul Duke III]

If they were protesting the USC it would be hard to argue with them.

nah

there's only one tax which is massively unfair to low\non earners and yet no-one ever has the brains to point this out

[6starpool]

nah

there's only one tax which is massively unfair to low\non earners and yet no-one ever has the brains to point this out

VAT?

[BobSloane]

nah

there's only one tax which is massively unfair to low\non earners and yet no-one ever has the brains to point this out

The lotto?

[Raoul Duke III]

VAT?

indeed

has at least 10 times the annual impact of water charges on a low earner

[6starpool]

I think it is at least reasonable to say that the volume of public protesting has exceeded expectations. You'd accept that yes?

It probably has, and I am certainly not underestimating a government's ability to backtrack in the face of sliding polls, but I do think that it will be replaced in the news cycle by something else in the next few months and more or less blow over.

[The Situation]

With the first one, even though it's a 100% pen, you could argue the ref didn't see it. Second one is inexcusable from the ref. But I'm obviously not complaining.

The linesman would have had a great view of the first one. They were both fairly blatant.

Football is officiated atrociously, said it before but I take any close league finish with a pinch of salt in terms of who "deserves" the title, I'd attach about a +- 6 points degree of uncertainty due to how badly the game is reffed.

[6starpool]

indeed

has at least 10 times the annual impact of water charges on a low earner

It's also about 3x higher than the similar tax in the US, although similar to other EU ones I guess.

[6starpool]

Cool, I have it all downloaded for 2 or 3 years sitting there, must give it a go. Loved the books when i was young.

You should use this as a viewing guide.

http://scifi.stackexchange.com/questions/10009/what-order-should-the-babylon-5-movies-and-series-be-watched-in

[Raoul Duke III]

It's also about 3x higher than the similar tax in the US, although similar to other EU ones I guess.

so why is Richard Boyd Barrett not moaning about it?

I am confuse

[Raoul Duke III]

gotta admire Phil Hogan's timing in getting out ahead of this shitshow in any case, wp that man

[SatNav]

I am watching this at the min and its very good if anyone has not seen it

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-gambler/episode-guide

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3O_i4zOzFBY

[6starpool]

so why is Richard Boyd Barrett not moaning about it?

I am confuse

Even the relatively recent move of it from 20% in recent years to 23% was barely given any attention.

I'd say actually the most disproportionate tax on the low paid is the tax on cigarettes.

[LuckyLloyd]

It probably has, and I am certainly not underestimating a government's ability to backtrack in the face of sliding polls, but I do think that it will be replaced in the news cycle by something else in the next few months and more or less blow over.

Hence why the issue of what might happen if there is significant non payment becomes interesting...

[Raoul Duke III]

I would guess that one of the major problems is trying to enact these reforms in times of austerity which has been caused to a large degree by the mismanagment of the country. People are still angry but never really got to vent about this. How much of the debt was borrowed to refinance the banks? 80 billion plus? People are fucking sick and tired of hearing about having to pay their fair share when the reality is that looking at the interest repayments it is clear what is crippling the country. It isn't low wage earner not paying their fair share but the fact we need to make up massive amounts of money to pay that loan. Rightly or wrongly that is how people feel. You have people in this thread pontificating about social welfare cuts while working within an industry which failed and has got propped up by the tax payer. If people felt that taxes where going towards paying for things like water I don't think it would be a problem. No one is saying it directly but these groundswells of support are because people feel stuff like Irish water is just making up the shortfall for paying the interest on loans to the bailout.

Opr

there is probably some truth to this - but we should also remember that only about 30% of the national debt was caused by the banking bailout. The rest is down to paying things like PS salaries, SW etc. We didn't just have a property bubble, we had a public spending bubble

I am happy to pontificate on it btw as I don't work for an Irish bank. Clearly if I worked and\or shilled for, say, PTSB, then I would be hiding in shame and agreeing with everything you say.

[Raoul Duke III]

Even the relatively recent move of it from 20% in recent years to 23% was barely given any attention.

I'd say actually the most disproportionate tax on the low paid is the tax on cigarettes.

cigarette consumption is at least a choice, you don't get to choose whether you buy food, clothes etc

but hey, it's far easier to whine about something relatively inconsequential than focus on the real inequities built into the system

[Emmet]

there is probably some truth to this - but we should also remember that only about 30% of the national debt was caused by the banking bailout. The rest is down to paying things like PS salaries, SW etc. We didn't just have a property bubble, we had a public spending bubble

I am happy to pontificate on it btw as I don't work for an Irish bank. Clearly if I worked and\or shilled for, say, PTSB, then I would be hiding in shame and agreeing with everything you say.

Thought this post on boards was good

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=92864907&postcount=3965

Largely the running deficit, I'm afraid. We have a general government debt of €215.5bn, and the entire bank bailout was €64bn. Basic arithmetic shows that the majority of our debt is therefore not bank debt.

Deficits for 2009-2014 are:

That's the problem with a deficit. While a €20bn deficit sounds smaller than a €60bn bailout, three years of that is €60bn. Seven years in deficit mounts up to a lot.

Hence austerity. The levels of public funding committed to in 1997-2007 were based on large taxes flowing in from the property bubble. When that burst, those taxes evaporated. The resulting imbalance between public spending and taxes was very large - c. €20bn, as you can see. About 40% of government income evaporated over the course of a year, while the amount needed for social welfare actually shot up as the building industry collapsed.

When people talk about FF's "economic mismanagement", they're usually talking about things like the bank guarantee, or the fact that the banks were bailed out in the first place. And when they bitch about FG's economic mismanagement, they're usually referring to the imposition of new taxes and the cutting of services.

But all of those things are necessary outcomes of the real mismanagement from 1997-2007 - the bit people look back on as a boom. People are now saying "I'd rather have FF back, at least they never did x or y to us" - no, they didn't, but they made it necessary for someone to do so. Whether one chooses to vote FG or SF in 2016, the one thing that shouldn't be done is voting FF.

cordially,
Scofflaw

[NiceandcoolTrig]

And beyond you it shall stay I guess. Mad world eh?

That's fine, ignore the substance in my post, I know SF supporters have trouble dealing with facts.

[Kayroo]

What are your thoughts on the second part above? What non payment rate would be an issue iyo? As I say, I think it's a genuinely interesting question.

The system can handle anything actually. Most of these will be prosecuted at District Court level debts I'd imagine and that handles over 500,000 cases a year and is not really operating at capacity. Once the first 100 or so of them go through I think you'll see a drop off in non-compliance. The new Fines Act means once they get their judgment they can garnish your wages (or social welfare) - meaning a certain sum will be removed at source each month.

Let me put it to you this way - the political breaking point is a hell of a lot lower than the Courts'.

That said, in between uncontrollable drool outpours I posted at length during the summer about how the media / political "attack" strategy doesn't work with SF. We've had two full weeks of full on nonsense in the media directed at Adams and SF and their poll support seems to have increased inspite of same.

Doesn't that concern you? If it was revealed tomorrow that Fine Gael - or at the very least a large number of senior FG officials including Enda Kenny - had been complicit in a cover up of child sexual abuse as well as assisting in the relocation of sex offenders, wouldn't you expect them to have to answer questions or face the consequences?

Let me ask you three very simple questions - and I would really appreciate an answer to each - as follows:

1. Do you believe that Gerry Adams has done nothing wrong with regards to Maria Cahill?

2. Do you believe that Sinn Fein members have been complicit in the protection of child sex offenders and, if not, what is the basis of your belief?

3. If it was unimpeachably proven that everything Maria Cahill said about Gerry Adams or Sinn Fein was true, would that change your opinion of them?


I'm not asking out of any sense of anti-SF bias (although I must admit I do dislike SF as a party) but rather to try and gain an understanding of the mindset of an articulate and intelligent SF voter. You are probably correct that I do not understand why anyone would vote SF, or that I do not understand the loyalty to the party, and it is for those reasons that I am asking the questions above.

Are you sticking with this, because I think you and the people who continually agree with this sentiment are wrong?
So I'd be happy to take the overs on a '+-19.5 seats for SF next GE' bet?

So many question marks, so little time...

Yes I still think the numbers are soft. Irish opinion polls just ask respondents (I am an MRBI respondent for some reason) in general rather than targeting likely voters. The headline numbers don't tell the entire story at all. Of course there's a consistency in the numbers - they always draw from roughly the same group of people.

First, party affiliation is less important for first preferences than it is for transfers. Generally personal qualities of the candidate tend to be the primary driver for 1st preferences. Sinn Fein often do well here. They are super active on the ground. However preferences are far more heavily weighted by party affiliation and one thing the recent by-elections showed us is that Sinn Fein are still transfer-resistant. Paul Murphy made a blatantly political decision to run under the Anti-Austerity banner because it made him more transfer-friendly. Also Sinn Fein are sharing their basic positions on most issues with a glut of independents. They'll be scrapping hard with them in all their main constituencies. That's gonna seriously reduce their haul overall.

[DeadParrot]

what is the expected profit margin of irish water?
Would an increase on property tax to cover irish water (40-60 p.a) been a better option?

[Emmet]

I'm lost at the suggestion that if 10% of people don't pay their bill that we (the 90%) should bow down to their wishes and stop charging?

Doesn't seem very democratic.

That's not what was suggested

Could you explain how else we should interpret it?

[dobby]

The linesman would have had a great view of the first one. They were both fairly blatant.

Football is officiated atrociously, said it before but I take any close league finish with a pinch of salt in terms of who "deserves" the title, I'd attach about a +- 6 points degree of uncertainty due to how badly the game is reffed.

What kind of suspension can a ref get for this kind of performance? It's embarrassing for him.

Also, FML.

[6starpool]

cigarette consumption is at least a choice, you don't get to choose whether you buy food, clothes etc

but hey, it's far easier to whine about something relatively inconsequential than focus on the real inequities built into the system

I certainly am not trying to imply it's unfair, but it is them that pay most of the taxes on them, although they are also responsible for consuming most of the illegally imported ones too obviously.

The obvious reason why this is being focussed on by SF, Socialists, etc is that it is a very easy and obvious election strategy to focus on which will mean that most of their arguments will be about this and ignore the real economic policies that would be needed if they are to actually participate in a functioning government at any point.

[Raoul Duke III]

what is the expected profit margin of irish water?
Would an increase on property tax to cover irish water (40-60 p.a) been a better option?

No. It's a utility charge on a scarce natural resource.

It absolutely has to be on a usage basis, hence metering.

Would you agree to having ESB and Bord Gaia charges rolled into the LPT too?

[DeadParrot]

No. It's a utility charge on a scarce natural resource.

It absolutely has to be on a usage basis, hence metering.

Would you agree to having ESB and Bord Gaia charges rolled into the LPT too?

I actually agree with you but....

Scarce?
How do ya do the justify the fact that if it "absolutely has to be on a usage basis, hence metering.", then what about the large % of the population on a flat rate in apartment buildings?

[Raoul Duke III]

Put yourselves in the shoes of the troika: imagine being in the first meeting between their officials and the Department of Finance the day after the bailout.

"Let us talk about your tax base. Explain to me please the basis of your property taxes to pay for municipal and regional services".

" Ah heyor. We don't have any of dem boss"

"Okaaaaay. And what about water charges?"

" ye wha'?"

"Emmmmm....and how much do you earn per anumn?"

"150k"

"That is more than the prime minister of my country. I think I see the problem here"

[DeadParrot]

[VINE]OOgn1IKJK1I[/VINE]

[Raoul Duke III]

I actually agree with you but....

Scarce?
How do ya do the justify the fact that if it "absolutely has to be on a usage basis, hence metering.", then what about the large % of the population on a flat rate in apartment buildings?

Hardly a large % but yes, some fair solution needs to be enacted. Hardlysomething that is beyond modern technology?

[AndyFatBastard]

Yes?

Edit: that's what traders start at in my company after their initial internship. Not sure what that has to do with the higher rate kicking in at the average industrial wage though.

We weren't talking about average wages until you brought it up. We were talking about low earners.

[Strewelpeter]

what is the expected profit margin of irish water?
Would an increase on property tax to cover irish water (40-60 p.a) been a better option?

They are not in the business of profit. Their purpose is to create enough of a surplus to cover the costs of supplying water. It is up to we the people through our elected politicians to ensure that they do that job efficiently and cost effectively. As a self contained semi state body the level of scrutiny needed is far more achievable than it would be in the current system of water delivery vis the county councils and DoE.

[dobby]

[VINE]OOgn1IKJK1I[/VINE]

GTFO. That's not him spitting. That's what happens sometimes when you shout.

No shame losing that game. Great performance in second half. Very unlucky to not draw. City better team, just, playing for an hour a man up. United can be proud of that showing.

[davepoke/her]

GTFO. That's not him spitting. That's what happens sometimes when you shout.

No shame losing that game. Great performance in second half. Very unlucky to not draw. City better team, just, playing for an hour a man up. United can be proud of that showing.

Unlucky me bollox. If the referee isn't a gutless clown you lose 4-0.

[Denny Crane]

We weren't talking about average wages until you brought it up. We were talking about low earners.

Is 33k a high earner?

[6starpool]

Is 33k a high earner?

Depends on your point of view. I'd say not, but someone who works in a Spar or as a cleaner, etc will say yes. That's why it's the average.

[Dice75]

Unlucky me bollox. If the referee isn't a gutless clown you lose 4-0.

He's hardly gutless if he doesn't give a home team & crowd multiple peno's they are screaming for?

[dobby]

Unlucky me bollox. If the referee isn't a gutless clown you lose 4-0.

It's not the teams fault the ref hasn't a clue. Based on chances outside those decisions and playing most of the game with 10 men they're very unlucky.

[davepoke/her]

He's hardly gutless if he doesn't give a home team & crowd multiple peno's they are screaming for?

Because...

Lol, two stone wallers turned down on their own pitch. Hate refs who bottle decisions after a big call earlier in a match.

It's not the teams fault the ref hasn't a clue. Based on chances outside those decisions and playing most of the game with 10 men they're very unlucky.

They weren't very unlucky. They were lucky not to have 3 penalties giving against them or to have to play the entire second half with nine men.

[AndyFatBastard]

Is 33k a high earner?

No. What is your point?

[dobby]

Because...

They weren't very unlucky. They were lucky not to have 3 penalties giving against them or to have to play the entire second half with nine men.

Sorry, I forgot. Never try and talk football with an ABU fan.

[Denny Crane]

No. What is your point?

trying to work out what this was meant to mean

[davepoke/her]

Sorry, I forgot. Never try and talk football with an ABU fan.

lol wut.

Keep thinking you "very unlucky" then.

[eamonhonda]

It's not the teams fault the ref hasn't a clue. Based on chances outside those decisions and playing most of the game with 10 men they're very unlucky.

But then again Man City were very unlucky that the ref was too shit to give them the penalties they deserved and win 3 or 4 nil.

[mdoug]

Reddit thread on highly distasteful jokes.


Samples:

What breaks when you give it to a toddler?

SPOILER

Their hips.

[davepoke/her]

But then again Man City were very unlucky that the ref was too shit to give them the penalties they deserved and win 3 or 4 nil.

We're ignoring those decisions and only focusing on the chances United had. The chances City created or the goal they scored don't count either.

United were unlucky.

[dobby]

But then again Man City were very unlucky that the ref was too shit to give them the penalties they deserved and win 3 or 4 nil.

Yeah I acknowledged the fact the ref hadn't a clue. If the right decisions were made United lose 3-0 minimum. But they weren't given. And because of that United were unlucky to not draw. I never said City weren't unlucky. Like I said, it's not Uniteds fault the ref had a shocker.

[dobby]

Anyway, I'm done arguing. Beaten by the better team. May have even been beaten with 11v 11. Can't complain about the performance. United were a good match for them and couldn't do much more. Ref played his role but still happy overall.

Aguero, I absolutely hate the cunt but he is fantastic to watch. Hopefully United have a good second half of the seaosn.

[Tar.Aldarion]

Everybody I know seems to be against the water charges not because they dont want to pay for water, they think we should. They often mention 500 million wasted on consultants, and that the people in charge are corrupt and so on. Also that they will be in it for profit, not improving the system.
And that it should be handled differently. I guess it#'s more the mismanagement and pissing money away or something like that.

You should use this as a viewing guide.

http://scifi.stackexchange.com/quest...-be-watched-in

Great, cheers. There is a stackexchange for everything it seems.

Thought this post on boards was good

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showp...postcount=3965

Scofflaw is a fantastic poster, his words are generally golden imo. Quite the suave gentleman in real life too. /fanboy

[ArmaniJeans]

20 seats is likely a pipe dream for them to be honest. Expect their vote to be really weakened by independent locals.

Are you sticking with this, because I think you and the people who continually agree with this sentiment are wrong?
So I'd be happy to take the overs on a '+-19.5 seats for SF next GE' bet?

Actually going to withdraw from having a bet. In my head I thought around 22 or 23 seats was likely, and thus having a bet at 19.5 was 'fair' in that it was within margins of disagreement.
But having looked around a few sites the lines are actually way different from what I'd thought they be, and thus 19.5 would be a rip off for you.

Powers have them at 32.5 seats and Boyles have them at 33.5 seats.
I'm struggling to see how they can reach those figures and think under 33.5 5/6 is big bet material. Onviously if you think 20 is a pipedream then you should be emptying your wallet on that line.

[Kayroo]

Actually going to withdraw from having a bet. In my head I thought around 22 or 23 seats was likely, and thus having a bet at 19.5 was 'fair' in that it was within margins of disagreement.
But having looked around a few sites the lines are actually way different from what I'd thought they be, and thus 19.5 would be a rip off for you.

Powers have them at 32.5 seats and Boyles have them at 33.5 seats.
I'm struggling to see how they can reach those figures and think under 33.5 5/6 is big bet material. Onviously if you think 20 is a pipedream then you should be emptying your wallet on that line.

It probably needs stating that ANY predictions this far away from an actual election are complete tosh. The bookies don't know and neither do I. At this stage it's all just idle speculation and no amount of polls will assist in narrowing it all down.

Once an election is called then everything locks and we can make a better call but there's actually not a huge difference between my prediction and the bookie's in terms of how useful they are or how likely they are to be proven right.

It may be that I am right but that doesn't mean my method of determining that situation is any less fraught with uncertainty. Making a bet on it now would be something akin to a raffle. I might win but that doesn't mean there's any skill to it. Ask me again 1 week after the election is called. Then it'll be way more interesting.

[Kayroo]

Actually Armani, you'll remember at the last election that RDIII, yourself and myself did a prediction comp which RDIII won. Out of 165 seats I got 128 right, he got 132 and you got 133. That's roughly 80% accuracy when we knew every single candidate running and we gave our predictions in the last week of the election.

Making any calls at this stage would just be foolish. I think SF will weaken in the polls and struggle to get to 20 seats. I don't for a moment claim to have some ability to divine this information as a certainty!

[eamonhonda]

Someone needs to show these footballers how to throw a proper dig.

[ArmaniJeans]

Actually Armani, you'll remember at the last election that RDIII, yourself and myself did a prediction comp which RDIII won. Out of 165 seats I got 128 right, he got 132 and you got 133. That's roughly 80% accuracy when we knew every single candidate running and we gave our predictions in the last week of the election.

Making any calls at this stage would just be foolish. I think SF will weaken in the polls and struggle to get to 20 seats. I don't for a moment claim to have some ability to divine this information as a certainty!

A good fun competition that was, we should do it again before the next GE.

I accept your point that predicting things so far in advance is difficult. I'd argue over it being foolish though, especially on a board where its not unusual for people to do antepost bets on events years away.

[dobby]

Someone needs to show these footballers how to throw a proper dig.

Weimann putting your bet in danger here Honda. Needs to calm and settle dafuq down.

[eamonhonda]

Weimann putting your bet in danger here Honda. Needs to calm and settle dafuq down.

Ya I'm not sure if he realises they are 1 up