moving between cash game stakes

[ibimon]

Hi.

I recently moved into cash game and started for practice at 2nl. I eventually got the grip of the game and moved up to 5nl.

My current hand sample of 3k hands in 5nl is 2.5bb/100 hands all in 6max tables. Is this enough of an indicator to move up stakes to say 20nl? I was running 16.5/16.7 per 100 hands for about 2.3k hands but then ran into some bad beats and took a downswing. I am a casual player and playing at 2.5bb/100 hands isn't profitable enough for me to keep playing poker.

I can't go back to SnGs because I can't commit to the volume they require to be profitable.

Any advices are welcome

[ikilldurrr1]

Your sample size is so insignificant. It literally means nothing. Anything can happen in that short a sample. I would say just stick to bankroll management and move up when you have like 40 buyins and move back down at 30.

[Guest]

Just to say I remember playin 50NL on stars and doing well this time last year and I.remember asking a very similar question when I had 30k of hands done and was promptly told 100k in hands is a decent sample size and indicator

[ibimon]

what would be a relevant sample? 10k?

[Guest]

I was told 100k and I was playing 6 max now considering your stakes are smaller and whether you're playing 6max or full ring might mean a smaller sample is ok! I'd say it's pretty much when your roll can handle it and if you feel you are ready!
But if I were you I'd be comfortable at about 40-50k

[ibimon]

il come back to this thread once I hit 50k hands. Am I aiming for 2-3bb per 100hands or is that too small for that limit?

[Denny Crane]

There isn't going to be much of a skill difference between those two levels, so if you're winning just move up when your br allows. 5nl might even be easier to win at since at those levels you're probably fighting the rake more than anything else.

[crashoutcassius]

Hey OP,

Just to give some insight into the variance over 3k hands vs 100k hands, here is a variance simulation over 3k hands with a winrate of 3bb/100 followed by a simulation over 100k hands with 3bb. Both have a standard deviation of 80 which I believe is about normal. The different colours represent different trials, of which I did 10 for each.





So hopefully you can see the vast difference between the two, the first graph is split pretty evenly between winning and losing at the end of the 3k sample, where as the second graph each of the 10 trials ended up a winner. You aren't guaranteed to be a winner after 100k hands, but it is a very good indication that you are a winning player, especially in these smaller games.