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RUGBY BETTING THREAD
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toulouse @ 4/1 heineken cup winner
fixtures
14/01/2012 16:40 P6 Toulouse v Connacht Rugby
20/01/2012 20:00 P6 Gloucester Rugby v Toulouse
toulouse play connacht at home next weekend in what looks very much like a bonus point win,and travel to gloucester who have little chance of going to the last 8.they will most likely end up in the top 4 thus getting home advantage from the 1/4 finals.given that they will also avoid the other top 3 teams,will be odds on to win and if they do they will be much shorter than 4/1 to win the heineken cup.with this in mind i had a nice bet @ 4/1 with the view of laying off later(if at all)and hopefully locking up a little profit!Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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ulster @ 100/1 to win the heineken
the price here varies greatly from anything from 100/1(boyles) down to 45/1(32red).tbh more of a g'wan ya good thing fun bet,tho they will be playing a under strenght tigers team at home next weekend,before heading to ASM Clermont Auvergne in what will be two very hard games for them,but they are playing well of late,winning at home v munster and away to edinburgh.still worth a score @ 100/1....just in case!Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postulster @ 100/1 to win the heineken
the price here varies greatly from anything from 100/1(boyles) down to 45/1(32red).tbh more of a g'wan ya good thing fun bet,tho they will be playing a under strenght tigers team at home next weekend,before heading to ASM Clermont Auvergne in what will be two very hard games for them,but they are playing well of late,winning at home v munster and away to edinburgh.still worth a score @ 100/1....just in case!
FWIW, we got on them at scratch at home to Leinster with SJ yesterday. With Toby Flood and Tuilagi missing for the Tigers that line looks considerably off.
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Originally posted by Emmet View PostLeinster - 9
Montpellier (anything above +6 imo)
Treviso +15
Connacht +26
boom, hope, boom, boom.
Sneaky double on the Irish teams too.
dunno lad,if aironi can put 20 pts past connacht,what could Toulouse do on a good day,hope i'm wrong mind you,think toulouse might want their bp win early before perhaps takeing a few players off with a view to the next weekend and onwards,guess when we see the line ups,might give us a few clues.no price on the munster game as yet,but the highest scoring half could be worth a look.
Originally posted by Keane View PostI actually quite like that bet - Ulster seem to be consistently underrated by some bookies and are actually a very solid team.
FWIW, we got on them at scratch at home to Leinster with SJ yesterday. With Toby Flood and Tuilagi missing for the Tigers that line looks considerably off.Last edited by amberleaf; 10-01-12, 11:17.Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by Keane View PostFWIW, we got on them at scratch at home to Leinster with SJ yesterday. With Toby Flood and Tuilagi missing for the Tigers that line looks considerably off.
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Originally posted by NuckChorris View PostLeicester looked good at the weekend minus those players. Flood was replaced by Billy Twelvetrees (what a name!!) who scored all 29 points! Prob the reason for the odds. Still would think Ulster are worth a punt at home, but Leicester will be no pushovers, even without those two players.
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boyles have munster-13,at this stage looks a little low given that this is a bonus point game for them.(think will need a bp to get in to the top 4, home 1/4 final)dont think they would fancy going to the saints looking for a result,castres wont be sending over their strongest team with bigger things for them in the T14,you would think!
edit;just gone -14Last edited by amberleaf; 10-01-12, 13:48.Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postboyles have munster-13,at this stage looks a little low given that this is a bonus point game for them.(think will need a bp to get in to the top 4, home 1/4 final)dont think they would fancy going to the saints looking for a result,castres wont be sending over their strongest team with bigger things for them in the T14,you would think!
edit;just gone -14
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postboyles have munster-13,at this stage looks a little low given that this is a bonus point game for them.(think will need a bp to get in to the top 4, home 1/4 final)dont think they would fancy going to the saints looking for a result,castres wont be sending over their strongest team with bigger things for them in the T14,you would think!
edit;just gone -14Originally posted by premierstone View PostI dont know the line seems about right tbh, Munster are never ones for racking up a big score, and with the injuries in the backs and the back row in particular I wouldnt be investing too much in this.
round 1 lost to scarlets (away)
round 2 lost to munster (home)rog drop goal
round 3 won saints (home)
round 4 lost saints (away) 45-0
they are now 4th in the top 14,they face biarritz on the 26th of jan. at home,imo there is no way they will risk key players away from home in a comp they couldnt care less about.on the other hand munster will have to look for a bp win and not go to the saints looking to get a result,dunno lad but the -14 looks alright from this point of view.munster are grinding out wins when playing teams that want to beat them,but will the castres team that comes to ireland next weekend,have that mind set?not too sure they will tbhMattie McGrath wanna-be
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still think the -14 could be a little low,but wait and see what castres bring over,i know that they are expecting to face a strong saints team away in the last of the pool games.a bonus point win here could be a absolute must for them,forecast is good for the weekend.Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by westlife View Postgoing to have a punt on Wales for the Six nations (11/4)... Feel that if it gets to be a decider in Cardiff on Paddys day, that fans, pride and place will drive them on to victory! Opinions?
edit.think ireland could do wales at home in the first game,just thinking back to last weekends game in the pro 12,cardiff v leinster,there was a few match ups there and imo the reff might have saved the blues from a right hideing,Last edited by amberleaf; 11-01-12, 10:11.Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Poststill think the -14 could be a little low,but wait and see what castres bring over,i know that they are expecting to face a strong saints team away in the last of the pool games.a bonus point win here could be a absolute must for them,forecast is good for the weekend.
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Originally posted by westlife View Postgoing to have a punt on Wales for the Six nations (11/4)... Feel that if it gets to be a decider in Cardiff on Paddys day, that fans, pride and place will drive them on to victory! Opinions?
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Originally posted by Keane View PostYeah the team Castres send is quite important obv, but you have to remember that the fact that they're quite likely to bring and understrength team is already factored into the -14.Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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I must admit the +27 for Connacht seems high, but the absence of Johnny Concrete is huge..plus Toulouse have been coming to the boil nicely and the win at Harlequins was a big fillip for them.
I have clobbered the Munster -14 mark...Castres will send the same team that crumbled up front and lost 45-0 in northampton...we are at our strongest up front right now, so badly and all as performances have been, (and bias aside) I would expect a bonus point win and if the defence isn't awful, then 14 pts should be beaten easily."Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC
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Originally posted by Keane View PostI don't know how to price up the Saracens vs Biarritz match with Saracens off in South Africa during the week for a training camp.
Anybody care to venture how the travelling will affect them? Probably worth a few points against them but even so -6 looks too small."Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC
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Originally posted by Keane View PostLeinster -8 is too short IMO with Ruaridh Jackson and Morey Low missing."Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC
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Originally posted by ciarraithuaidh View PostLooks that way yeah, but Leinster have been poor for long spells of both away games so far in Europe. They really should be winning handily, but Glasgow's pack isn't bad and Richie Grey is likely playing his last home game for them before heading for Sale which could heighten the motivation. I am tempted by the Leinster -8 though and a few tryscorers aswell.
1 Montpellier's performance at home was incredible.
2 Bath also fronted up so well on the day against us.
3 We demolished them at home
4 We also destroyed Glasgow at home.
Leinster -8 is a misprice imo. 11-13 is the fair price, leaning towards the latter but dependent on the team that Glasgow put out. They really are a poor side.
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Originally posted by Emmet View PostNot at all.
1 Montpellier's performance at home was incredible.
2 Bath also fronted up so well on the day against us.
3 We demolished them at home
4 We also destroyed Glasgow at home.
Leinster -8 is a misprice imo. 11-13 is the fair price, leaning towards the latter but dependent on the team that Glasgow put out. They really are a poor side.
Anyway, the lineups are going to be pretty much the same as they were for the same fixture in the RDS..so anything other than a Leinster win would be a shock...but Glasgow are capable of more than you seem to credit them with..their full strength pack would be excellent on paper at least. Beattie, Barclay, Kellock, Gray, Low, Welsh, Hall, all decent players."Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC
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ulster team v tigers ULSTER (15-9) S Terblanche; A Trimble, D Cave, P Wallace, C Gilroy; I Humphreys, R Pienaar (1-8) T Court, R Best, J Afoa, J Muller (Captain), D Tuohy, S Ferris, C Henry, P Wannenburg
Replacements (16-23): N Brady, C Black, A Macklin, L Stevenson, W Faloon, P Marshall, I Whitten, A D'ArcyMattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by Keane View PostOne game versus Bath away - even two games if you count the Montpellier game - is lolsmall sample size to be making any sort of judgement that Leinster aren't as good as they should be away from home.
We have the line at 11-13 points depending on Jackson's fitness as well.
Thats all I said...and I stand by it.
By the way, word is Jackson will be ok to start."Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC
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Originally posted by Keane View PostIt's a pretty much meaningless statement in terms of handicapping the game, but whatever."Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC
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just done a double for the friday night games in the hec,backed ulster @ 8/11 and ospreys/treviso,2nd half highest scoreing half @ 5/6.the ulster one is Straighforward,the osp/tre is again based on stats. tho its marginal.
ulster @ 8/11
ospreys/treviso highest scoring half,2nd half @5/6Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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toulouse starting 15 v connacht http://www.stadetoulousain.fr/Le_XV_...t-49-3440.htmlMattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postboyles have munster-13,at this stage looks a little low given that this is a bonus point game for them.(think will need a bp to get in to the top 4, home 1/4 final)dont think they would fancy going to the saints looking for a result,castres wont be sending over their strongest team with bigger things for them in the T14,you would think!
edit;just gone -14Originally posted by amberleaf View Postmunster gone to -16 now,ulster -1,might have spotted something in the stats/research thingy in the munster/castres will throw it out there when the other markets are up,see what ye make out of it!Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postjust done a double for the friday night games in the hec,backed ulster @ 8/11 and ospreys/treviso,2nd half highest scoreing half @ 5/6.the ulster one is Straighforward,the osp/tre is again based on stats. tho its marginal.
ulster @ 8/11
ospreys/treviso highest scoring half,2nd half @5/6Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Does anybody like Connacht +9 10/11 tonight. Admittedly they are out of the running but only lost 25-17 in the reverse in round 1 and were quite respectable vs Toulouse last week losing 24-3. Weather is reportedly windy and raining in Galway also which could lead to a scrappy affair. Any thoughts??
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Originally posted by Terry Phelan View PostDoes anybody like Connacht +9 10/11 tonight. Admittedly they are out of the running but only lost 25-17 in the reverse in round 1 and were quite respectable vs Toulouse last week losing 24-3. Weather is reportedly windy and raining in Galway also which could lead to a scrappy affair. Any thoughts??
but being Galway it could start at any minute.
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IPB fantasy 6 nations anyone??
I've joined Guinness Fantasy Rugby 2012 game
and I bet that my team, There is no BOD, will beat any team you can put together!
I challenge you to join my mini-league. Go to the game ( at http://fantasyrugby.guinness.com/?page=register ), pick your team then use the 'mini-league admin' option to join my mini league.
The details you need are:
League Name:
IPB league
League password:
emmetwillnotwin
It's not hard and there are some great prizes to win, so unless you're afraid of getting beaten I'm looking forward to seeing you in my league soon!http://mobro.co/zuroph
donate to my hairy lip!
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