RUGBY BETTING THREAD

[Emmet]

What HC would have you taking the + side?

From my own perspective I'm not sure -15 would be attractive tbh

[conspicuous]

What HC would have you taking the + side?

From my own perspective I'm not sure -15 would be attractive tbh

I expected the handicap to be -14/-15 and would be comfortable backing Saracens up to this line. Given Connacht's current plight I wouldn't feel comfortable backing them for huge money even at a larger handicap.

[Emmet]

To back up conspicuous' tip

Hate to say it but Saracens -11 looks a decent bet

Our injury list is frightening:

• Denis Buckley
• Willie Faloon
• Jason Harris-Wright
• Eoin McKeon
• Dave McSharry
• Miah Nikora
• Eoin Griffin
• Craig Ronaldson
• Kyle Tonetti
• Conor Finn
• Shane Layden
• Frank Murphy

Unavailable:

• James So’oialo

Doubts:

• Ronan Lougney
• Nathan White

Bold would all be players from the matchday 23.

[conspicuous]

Looking elsewhere I very much like Munster -7 v Edinburgh. Alan Solomons seems to have taken over with the Scottish outfit where Michael Bradley left off, conceding large scores and losing most matches. They're 1/5 so far this season with their only win being a narrow one at home to the Dragons. Munster are 4/5 to date this season and are fresh from a moarale boosting win over Leinster at the weekend. I expect Munster to be pushing for a bonus point in the second half ensuring they keep ahead of the handicap

I'll also be having a nibble at high flying Glasgow +16 against slightly out of sorts Toulon.

[Guest]

Looking elsewhere I very much like Munster -7 v Edinburgh. Alan Solomons seems to have taken over with the Scottish outfit where Michael Bradley left off, conceding large scores and losing most matches. They're 1/5 so far this season with their only win being a narrow one at home to the Dragons. Munster are 4/5 to date this season and are fresh from a moarale boosting win over Leinster at the weekend. I expect Munster to be pushing for a bonus point in the second half ensuring they keep ahead of the handicap

I'll also be having a nibble at high flying Glasgow +16 against slightly out of sorts Toulon.

Great stuff dude was supposed to go to match but cannot face it spent 1100 in dentist and baby due in the gaff in 2 days connacht are gonna get massacred they have been playing terribly running ball from own line and sarries are a team that grinds and conn cant answer that.

[conspicuous]

Great stuff dude was supposed to go to match but cannot face it spent 1100 in dentist and baby due in the gaff in 2 days connacht are gonna get massacred they have been playing terribly running ball from own line and sarries are a team that grinds and conn cant answer that.

Good luck with the new arrival mate

[Guest]

Good luck with the new arrival mate

Lol not mine thank fook canta fford feed myself.
Rodney ah you to crumble like a cheese cake base?

[conspicuous]

Lol not mine thank fook canta fford feed myself.
Rodney ah you to crumble like a cheese cake base?

Not happening, Connacht playing like men posessed

[conspicuous]

Zebre +44 at half time makes sense to me. Toulouse usually ring the changes and think about player management when they have the match won and bonus point wrapped up. Especially with another big match next week

[Guest]

Not happening, Connacht playing like men posessed

Ya but can they keep it up sarries decent bench whats so infuriating about conn no consistency.

[steve]

there's some value in munster by 11-20 points at 10/3 with powers

[Kenny]

Any opinions on tonight's game?

[Guest]

Got a sneaky bet on Toulouse +6pts when Huget forced the 5metre scrum in running.

Fancy Toulon to smash a horrific lazy and uniterested Cardiff tommorow.

Exeter had 33 point lead at half time and the game and bonus wrapped up.

Going to be possibly wet but Toulon should cover the 10pt handicap Giitea was terrific last week for them they should dominate the forwards Exeter smashed Cardiff last week with Lobbe Masoe and Armitage cant see Cardiff getting near parity.
This is a team who were beaten by Zebre at home have no heart despite having some excellent players.

Toulon by 16

[Emmet]

Forgot to post it here but when Gloucester's (B) Team sheet went up an awful lot of books very slow to react.

Munster -9 was available for a good hour on Sporting Bet. Line has moved to -14 with 365 and others at this stage.

I'm on a Munster -9, Castres + 16 double. Think that those Handicaps look the wrong way round to me. Munster should win comfortably and Castres have sent their strongest side to the RDS. I think Leinster will have enough to win, but not by 17+

[Emmet]

Sign me up PP.

[KevIRL]

Super suff emmet, only got Munster -13 but it was enough (just),

Tyty

[KevIRL]

Rugby League World Cup gets underway on Saturday with Australia v England. England were shocked in their final warm up game v 13th ranked team in the world Italy and lost by a point yesterday to them. Aussies -12 @ 10/11 worth a bet methinks

[Guest]

Host of internationals on this weekend.

Was looking for the handicap on ireland to win the second half cant find any.

With O brien Healy O connell and Cronin set to sub on in second half with Reddan and Madigan i can see a tiring Samoa failing to deal with the impact.

Fancy small wager on Samoa half time ireland fulltime @13/2.

Can see a very settled all blacks team covering an 11point handicap no Picamoles is a huge loss.

[amberleaf]

Jack McGrath 20/1 for man of the match,that will do.

[Guest]

Jack McGrath 20/1 for man of the match,that will do.

burning money of that prick Tony Watd is picking Motm nearly always picks a 10.

[conspicuous]

I'm on

SA -3
Aus -10

[The Situation]

With Argies first half +7 here.

[KevIRL]

Jack McGrath 20/1 for man of the match,that will do.

Fucking hero. Thanks very much

[Guest]

Jack McGrath 20/1 for man of the match,that will do.

Well done

[amberleaf]

bejabus if i could strap a saddle to them rugby players i'd be worth a fortune

[conspicuous]

Australia -1 max bet for me, they're much better and ahead of Ireland in their development as a team. They've far too much pace in the backline for Ireland and I can see Folau exposing BOD's outside shoulder and waltz by McFadden . 66/1 for him to bag a hatrick, worth a nibble

NZ best priced -13 in the handicap market against England. I prefered -12 but they're going to win this by 20+ enough of the time to make the bet profitable. Make no mistake this tour for NZ is all about England at Twickenham. NZ have been mostly devastating this year and otherwise in cruise control. After losing this match last year I'd expect a highly focused performance for 80 minutes on Saturday. If we get that, the result will be a formality

[Emmet]

6/4 at -17.5 available....

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/england-v-new-zealand/no-draw-alternative-handicap-3

[amberleaf]

Two little pokes on a few outsiders tomorrow,rory best first tryscorer @ 33s & peter o mahony for the man of the match gong @ 12s

[ciarraithuaidh]

Two little pokes on a few outsiders tomorrow,rory best first tryscorer @ 33s & peter o mahony for the man of the match gong @ 12s

I like that bet. Would fancy him to have a decent game again tomorrow given the composition of the Wallaby back row, especially seeing as how his direct opponent isn't terribly good IMO.

Given the MBS on Ireland game, something like O'Mahony anytime tryscorer @8/1 is worth a little shot aswell.

[conspicuous]

Two little pokes on a few outsiders tomorrow,rory best first tryscorer @ 33s & peter o mahony for the man of the match gong @ 12s

I like the price on Best for 1s tryscroer allright, especially in light of how effective our maul was last week and his role in such tactics. Wouldn't be so keen on POM though. He's in good form but SOB and Hooper are much more likely to stand out in the key battle of the backrows. Either will be on the shortlist if their team wins. If Australia have any sort of decent posession you can bet your bottom dollar they will be targeting Ireland's defence out wide through Israel Folau. He's my bet for MOM @ 8/1 and I also had a small piece of him to score a hat trick at 66/1 earlier in the week

[Guest]

Id have said Dan Carter 100caps tommorow but bit skinny @9/2 bet victor has great record
against england scores on avergae of 17pts.

[amberleaf]

powers not taking too many chances @ 7/2

[Guest]

powers not taking too many chances @ 7/2

Have great money back though money back if England win.
Carter being so awesome could well get it on merit being the 5th kiei centurion surely helps him.

[shrapnel]

Nz to win by 16-20 points and pieutaeu (sp?) first tryscorer.

[amberleaf]

No Dan Carter next weekend but this never gets old.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpKsDsCJhv8

[amberleaf]

Heaslip @ 25/1 for the man of the match,that will do

[shrapnel]

Heaslip @ 25/1 for the man of the match,that will do

isn't that like saying that Ireland will win? or at the very least that it's going to be a tight game?

[shrapnel]

bets for me:

maa nonu to score first

NZ to win by 16-20 points

[Guest]

Savea try anytime and nz win 7/4 on willhill.
New zealand -18@evens too.

[amberleaf]

isn't that like saying that Ireland will win? or at the very least that it's going to be a tight game?

yes.......seriously though hope that first half doesn't take its toll in the last ten,savage stuff.

[amberleaf]

hmmmm,what am i missing?

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/leinster-v-northampton/handicaps

[KevIRL]

@ Emmet. That rugby betting thread on Boards, has yer man Judgement Day ever been called on his consistent aftertiming? Not only does he aftertime winners but nearly all of the pre match 'tips' he actually gives end up as losers but he comes on with a 'didnt get time to back that so worked out okay' line or similar

[Aya14]

hmmmm,what am i missing?

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...pton/handicaps

Looks a gimme on paper doesn't it. N’Hampton should have no interest really given that a bonus point win and denying Leinster a bonus point would still leave them more than likely in third place.

Weather depending Leinster could easily secure another bonus point win even allowing for the fact Saints probably won't be not near as bad as last week.

[amberleaf]

ya agree,will be surprised if leinster put anything like a 33 point win on the board here given that northampton go to dublin with such a different mind-set,even so 10 points looks a little light at this stage.

[Guest]

@ Emmet. That rugby betting thread on Boards, has yer man Judgement Day ever been called on his consistent aftertiming? Not only does he aftertime winners but nearly all of the pre match 'tips' he actually gives end up as losers but he comes on with a 'didnt get time to back that so worked out okay' line or similar

Im not Emmet but i did ask him why not take better odds he always bets on powers and got abused by all and sundry so didnt bother again.
Before closed my account their.
Fucking hate aftertimers

[conspicuous]

hmmmm,what am i missing?

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...pton/handicaps

Pretty sure that handicap would have been 6 or 7 if Leinster hadn't hammered Saints at Franklin Gardens. I'd be a bit more wary about this one and certainly wouldn't be making any assumptions about Northampton being easy prey because they have little chance of progressing. They're a proud club with a strong local following and I'm pretty sure we'll see a highly commited performance from them at LR. Whether that's enough to win or keep within the handicap depends a lot on Leinster obviously, but we haven't seen much consistency from them this season. Their 2 best outings have been their away matches in the HEC and otherwise they have been very patchy. I think Leinster will win but I'd stay clear of the betting markets for the moment

I think Munster will beat Perpignan away. It's a great time to play them as they struggle with injuries and form in the Top 14. Munster simply want it much more which should get them over the line. 6/5 currently with PP

[Emmet]

@ Emmet. That rugby betting thread on Boards, has yer man Judgement Day ever been called on his consistent aftertiming? Not only does he aftertime winners but nearly all of the pre match 'tips' he actually gives end up as losers but he comes on with a 'didnt get time to back that so worked out okay' line or similar

I called him out before and he got tetchy. Regulars backed his side though so didn't bother calling more bullshit.

Too funny how he sorts the bets by transactions (obviously winnings up top).

Let the delusion continue imo, just wish he'd bet with us!

[Aya14]

Any thoughts on Gloucester v Edinburgh?

Gloucester -13 is 10/11, considering they beat Edinburgh by 13 in Edinburgh last week.
Edinburgh's error count and penalty count has been very high in their last two Heineken cup games Perpignan away the ball was like a bar of soap and Gloucester could and probably should have won by more last week. Factor in Edinburgh won their last 3 in the Pro 12 against Gloucester losing their last 3 Aviva Prem games. Edinburgh beat a Connacht team that never showed up and the two Italian sides were just scraped past, albeit in the case of Zebre minus their international contingent.
The Gloucester defeats were very competitive close games against Leicster,Quins and a game against Wasps they should have won.

Gloucester sit on 8 points two behind Munster so a win(arguably a bonus point win) is crucial should Munster get a result in France. I believe they will go all out to get the win and the error prone Edinburgh backline along with the penalty giving back row could contribute to many try scoring opps for Gloucester. In Freddie Burns and Billy Twelvetrees they have an exciting dynamic 10-12 axis imo.

Also Edinburgh won't like the appointment of Romain Poite who can be whistle happy at times, given their back row lives on the edge it could add to a high penalty count.


Opinions?

[Guest]

Re Gloucester Edinburgh.

Some valid points
Gloucester have 7 losses out of 9 in premiership.
Edinburgh have 4 from 5 in rabo.
Weather has 40% chance of rain sunday and 35km 20 mile wind which is fairly breezy.
A wet windy day may not suit Gloucester style of play and keep score board down but Edinburgh are poor.

Id not fancy it myself so Gloucester will prob win by 35

[Aya14]

Re Gloucester Edinburgh.

Some valid points
Gloucester have 7 losses out of 9 in premiership.
Edinburgh have 4 from 5 in rabo.
Weather has 40% chance of rain sunday and 35km 20 mile wind which is fairly breezy.
A wet windy day may not suit Gloucester style of play and keep score board down but Edinburgh are poor.

Id not fancy it myself so Gloucester will prob win by 35

Ya cheers. I agree league form has been poor but I dont value the Pro12 form as valuably as Aviva prem in terms of quality week in week out. As I said Treviso,Zebre and Connacht are three of Edinburgh's four wins not much there in terms of quality.
The weather would be a big factor on any bet yet for sure though.

[Guest]

Fancy Biarritz tonight to beat Worcester who are beyond woeful -14PTS tonight.
Biarritz are having a tough time of it this year as well but are at home in idyllic conditions mild and only a tiny breeze.
Imanol Hairy Donkey is back at 8 for Biarritz can over talk his importance to the team.

A powerful bench of Lund Barcella Traille and Yachvilli can add more pain in the final quarter if used.
Worcester have 10 changes to last weeks team with academy and fringe players populating the team.
10 points adrift on the bottom of the premiership this game is only a hindrance to beleagured Worcester and Dean Ryan

[Aya14]

I fancy that too, IF Worcester get there.....

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/rugby-union/25348347

[Semibluff]

The Leinster game is interesting.

The line was +1.5 leinster away to glouc. Presuming this wasnt too far off . . . And both teams just had a bad day.
If you allow 7 points for Home Adv, which is certainly the higher side of what it is, then you'd have leinster -5.5 in the reverse fixture

fair enough - Leinster proved they were they better team. I didnt watch it as close as others here, but surely they arent over 1 full try better than them in the long run (if they played each other 100 times sorta thing)

I think the over reaction to the Leinster win makes it so that Leinster cant be value at -11.5.

Its already been said about how proud of a club Gloucester are. Theyll have a point to prove in this game

Can someone convince me otherwise please?

[Aya14]

The Leinster game is interesting.

The line was +1.5 leinster away to glouc. Presuming this wasnt too far off . . . And both teams just had a bad day.
If you allow 7 points for Home Adv, which is certainly the higher side of what it is, then you'd have leinster -5.5 in the reverse fixture

fair enough - Leinster proved they were they better team. I didnt watch it as close as others here, but surely they arent over 1 full try better than them in the long run (if they played each other 100 times sorta thing)

I think the over reaction to the Leinster win makes it so that Leinster cant be value at -11.5.

Its already been said about how proud of a club Gloucester are. Theyll have a point to prove in this game

Can someone convince me otherwise please?

Leinster play Northampton though. But yeah the point about proud club etc is all true. The handicap was 10 points tuesday and is 11 now, its a close one but I'd fancy Leinster by two scores or more.

[Semibluff]

meant North, sorry! rest of Q is valid.

I just mean - the bookies are never THAT far wrong game one, must be public overreaction accounting for the rest

[Aya14]

meant North, sorry! rest of Q is valid.

I just mean - the bookies are never THAT far wrong game one, must be public overreaction accounting for the rest

I agree there it's no gimme like I may have originally thought, there were little things I hadnt noticed pre game that changed things Ken Pisi was switched to full back from the wing an hour before kick off and N'hampton conceded 12 points in the 1st 8 or 9 mins. That produced an uphill battle and Leinster were super clinical from there on in against a team chasing a game. In saying Leinster are a superior team from 1 to 15 and subs too, Cian Healy is a loss but Jack Mc Grath looks a real talent so no major loss there. Saints do have an unreal strike runner in George North but getting the ball recycled quick enough for Dickson to get it to him may be a problem. Leinster are excellent at home at starving teams of quick ball thus lessening any strike runners effect on line breaking and making gain line regularly.

I wouldn't be in love with giving 11 points to Saints but Leinster to me at home don't concede many and will be trying hard for a bonus point win before their visit to Castres in round 5.

[Mickey Rosa]

On the -14 Biarritz train.

[Guest]

On the -14 Biarritz train.

Dearilment at the moment.

[Guest]

Biarritz get loose head binned then sent off with Barcella on the bench mind boggling shit.
Down by 10 with1 4 men 25 mins left win by 8.

[conspicuous]

The Leinster game is interesting.

The line was +1.5 leinster away to glouc. Presuming this wasnt too far off . . . And both teams just had a bad day.
If you allow 7 points for Home Adv, which is certainly the higher side of what it is, then you'd have leinster -5.5 in the reverse fixture

fair enough - Leinster proved they were they better team. I didnt watch it as close as others here, but surely they arent over 1 full try better than them in the long run (if they played each other 100 times sorta thing)

I think the over reaction to the Leinster win makes it so that Leinster cant be value at -11.5.

Its already been said about how proud of a club Gloucester are. Theyll have a point to prove in this game

Can someone convince me otherwise please?

That's pretty solid reasoning, handicap is definitely out by a few points imo with an over correction following last weeks result. Saints +12 @ evens with Stan James is best price on offer now. Munster now best priced at evens which is still fantastic value given the respective team selections.