RUGBY BETTING THREAD

[Guest]

Have to disagree about O connell think hes goosed.
Second back operation know he brings leadership but hes one of the most ueselss international ball carriers ive ever seen.
I think this will be his last season of pro rugby.
Munster dont have the players to play a more munster stratedgy kicking the ball away good man Rog dont have the pack to impsoe themselves gid help them if Botha gets injured will get minced.

[conspicuous]

how far back would people suggest when analysing past match reports,statistics,etc in rugby in order to predict future probabilitys accurately,was told that seven was enough,seems a small sample size to me.the reasoning he gave was that the advances in player/fitness/game management was such that going back further was a waste of time,not sure what to make out of it tbh.

in the 6n might do something in the winning margin markets based on the set handicap,seems to be getting very tight lately,might be the way to go

I always take the seasons performances into account but concentrate heavily on statistics from the previous 5 matches. Nothing is a substitute for watching rugby imo though. Stats and data are only useful when examined in relation, to tactics, gameflow, weather, referee, players injured etc

[conspicuous]

Have to disagree about O connell think hes goosed.
Second back operation know he brings leadership but hes one of the most ueselss international ball carriers ive ever seen.
I think this will be his last season of pro rugby.
Munster dont have the players to play a more munster stratedgy kicking the ball away good man Rog dont have the pack to impsoe themselves gid help them if Botha gets injured will get minced.

I agree its probaly POC's last season but he's the man for a knock out cup match away from home. The fact that it could be his last HEC match will make him more determined to win. He will bring cohesion and aggression to the Munster pack and there will be no lapses in concentration. He's not a go to ball carrier but he always retains posession in difficult situations which is vital for a game like this. Tru about Botha, god help Munster if Archer comes on

[Guest]

I agree its probaly POC's last season but he's the man for a knock out cup match away from home. The fact that it could be his last HEC match will make him more determined to win. He will bring cohesion and aggression to the Munster pack and there will be no lapses in concentration. He's not a go to ball carrier but he always retains posession in difficult situations which is vital for a game like this. Tru about Botha, god help Munster if Archer comes on

Its sad hes really broke up though seems like such a nice guy and hope he is able to lead normal life in retirement.
Id never write off Munster but have a feeling there gonna get stuffed.

[premierstone]

Trying to predict winning margins 10 weeks in advance, seriously lads your at nothing, an awful lot of very important Rugby to be played in the interim, things could look an awful ot different come the first week in April.

[amberleaf]

I always take the seasons performances into account but concentrate heavily on statistics from the previous 5 matches. Nothing is a substitute for watching rugby imo though. Stats and data are only useful when examined in relation, to tactics, gameflow, weather, referee, players injured etc

ah yea, the stats can be very misleading at times and have to be taken with a pinch of salt,better to use them when trying to make up an over all picture......having said that i ended up going back over ten games and there's a few markets have shown up that statistically at least look wildly over priced,including one that's showing a 70% strike rate and is usually available @ 3/1(ish),and out of the three that didn't win,could have walked away from two with out a second thought,another is showing a 100% strike rate and is usually available @ 10/11 but just the 4 games to work from on this one,could end up being a load of b.s.,but no harm in broadening the horizons a little.

Its sad hes really broke up though seems like such a nice guy and hope he is able to lead normal life in retirement.
Id never write off Munster but have a feeling there gonna get stuffed.

not looking great for poc tbh,given the recent Injuries hopefully i'm wrong.
conspicuous touched on this in one of his posts about the error count with munster,40+ v the blues in musgrave,20+ v edinburgh, havn't seen anything on the rm game last weekend but would think its lower again.ask yourself why?,one reason i think is the players themselfs look uncomfortable in their roles under penny and perhaps by reverting back to older munster values will at least lower the error count,then again could be the ould heart ruling the head

[Emmet]

if you don't know how to use and weight stats, you're better off not using them.

Any and all statistics need to be realisable to be weighted accordingly. Any idea of their frequency of occurrence needs to be adjusted by the sample size and also noticed that revisionism makes things 'clear' that aren't clear in the slightest.

http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/15212/when-the-roulette-has-hit-5-reds-why-shouldnt-i-bet-to-black

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/kats-report/2012/jun/19/rio-wheel-reportedly-hits-seven-straight-19s-and-y/

People are inherently bad at probability and chance, pattern 'recognition' is a feature of our brain.

If you can identify a specific feature that turns a 3/1 into a 5/2 or better over a significant sample size, then you had best keep it quiet and simply take advantage every time that element occurs.

[Keane]

Far from reading more into the last five games sort of notion, I'd be strongly of the opinion that short term form is the single most overrated metric in handicapping sports.

A teams average performance level/ability over a large sample is vastly more important than tiny samples of fluctuating form.

[conspicuous]

Trying to predict winning margins 10 weeks in advance, seriously lads your at nothing, an awful lot of very important Rugby to be played in the interim, things could look an awful ot different come the first week in April.

Thanks for the advice buddy but that's what were here for. None of us are going to be losing our shirts now on matches being played in April but what I like to do is spot opportunities where I think the bookies line is out or where it may move in our favour over the intervening period

[conspicuous]

Far from reading more into the last five games sort of notion, I'd be strongly of the opinion that short term form is the single most overrated metric in handicapping sports.

A teams average performance level/ability over a large sample is vastly more important than tiny samples of fluctuating form.

Ye of course you're right and I probably didn't explain myself too well in fairness. I made it sound like I rely a lot heavier on recent form than I do in reality.

[Guest]

Trying to predict winning margins 10 weeks in advance, seriously lads your at nothing, an awful lot of very important Rugby to be played in the interim, things could look an awful ot different come the first week in April.

When i did put put up an estimate what i thought caps should be i did say things could and would change drastically given many factors.

Was more for fun than anything and get some debate going seems to have worked.

The thread had been very quiet and of course other forums may have better more informed posters but i play a lot of poker so choose to only post here.

As conspucious said i doubt people will be sticking the whole tank on any 10 week predictions from here.
Was just a personal opinion on what handicaps would be was besides Ulster game i was 4or 5 points off every other game

[conspicuous]

if you don't know how to use and weight stats, you're better off not using them.

Any and all statistics need to be realisable to be weighted accordingly. Any idea of their frequency of occurrence needs to be adjusted by the sample size and also noticed that revisionism makes things 'clear' that aren't clear in the slightest.

http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/15212/when-the-roulette-has-hit-5-reds-why-shouldnt-i-bet-to-black

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/kats-report/2012/jun/19/rio-wheel-reportedly-hits-seven-straight-19s-and-y/

People are inherently bad at probability and chance, pattern 'recognition' is a feature of our brain.

If you can identify a specific feature that turns a 3/1 into a 5/2 or better over a significant sample size, then you had best keep it quiet and simply take advantage every time that element occurs.

Good post and thanks for posting the links. I'd be the first to admit that I know rugby a lot better than I know probability. I agree that most people are terrible at working out probability which is why the bookies can get away with overbooks. You hear people talking about "value" all the time when they havn't a clue what the true price should be and therefore don't reallly know if it's value or not.

[premierstone]

Thanks for the advice buddy but that's what were here for. None of us are going to be losing our shirts now on matches being played in April but what I like to do is spot opportunities where I think the bookies line is out or where it may move in our favour over the intervening period

No problem pal

[premierstone]

When i did put put up an estimate what i thought caps should be i did say things could and would change drastically given many factors.

Was more for fun than anything and get some debate going seems to have worked.

Ah yeah i appreciate that was just more or less issuing it as a warning to others who may stumble on the thread. In fact as a rule I would never back on the h'cap in any sport untill I see the starting Line-ups, forecasted weather etc. and specific to Rugby the appointed referee.

[jack90210]

Thoughts on the +3 available on Ireland v Wales? I think its a good value.

[conspicuous]

Thoughts on the +3 available on Ireland v Wales? I think its a good value.

I really think that line is off considering Wales' various issues but I'm more interested in match betting of 11/8 Ireland for this encounter. This match isn't a one score game often enough to make the handicap worthwhile imo. Ireland winning margin of 11-20 @ 5/1 also holds some appeal for me

[Guest]

I really think that line is off considering Wales' various issues but I'm more interested in match betting of 11/8 Ireland for this encounter. This match isn't a one score game often enough to make the handicap worthwhile imo. Ireland winning margin of 11-20 @ 5/1 also holds some appeal for me

Trouble at outhalf and the second row especially.
11/8 is a big price and will surely shorten.
In this game id get on now and not be waiting for team line ups humidity colour of teh refs shorts etc
Too many Welsh players playing poorly and paying bit parts abroad missing Wyn Jones big loss.

[jack90210]

Trouble at outhalf and the second row especially.
11/8 is a big price and will surely shorten.
In this game id get on now and not be waiting for team line ups humidity colour of teh refs shorts etc
Too many Welsh players playing poorly and paying bit parts abroad missing Wyn Jones big loss.

I got on it there. Took the handicap and outright but more on the handicap.

Also a cheeky bet on Zebo top try scorer at 25/1.

[Mickey Rosa]

Still no prices up for the A game tomorrow night? Assume they are waiting for the teams but though someone might have priced it up early.

[amberleaf]

Still no prices up for the A game tomorrow night? Assume they are waiting for the teams but though someone might have priced it up early.

irish team due to be named at 1pm,game being televised as well.

[Mickey Rosa]

Possible Irish team:

1.Kilcoyne
2.Sherry
3.Fitzpatrick
4.Stevenson
5.Henderson
6.McLaughlin
7.O'Donnell
8.Coughlan
9.Marshall
10.Jackson
11.Fitzgerald
12.McSharry
13.Cave
14.Trimble
15.Henshaw

[Guest]

15 - Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Connacht)*
14 - Andrew Trimble (Ballymena/Ulster/49)
13 - Darren Cave (Belfast Harlequins/Ulster/3)
12 - Dave McSharry (UCD/Connacht/)*
11 - Luke Fitzgerald (Blackrock College/Leinster/23)
10 - Paddy Jackson (Dungannon/Ulster)*
9 - Paul Marshall (Ballymena/Ulster/)*
1 - David Kilcoyne (UL Bohemians/Munster/2)
2 - Mike Sherry (Garryowen/Munster)*
3 - Michael Bent (Dublin University/Leinster/2)
4 - Lewis Stevenson (Malone/Ulster)*
5 - Devin Toner (Lansdowne/Leinster/3)
6 - Kevin McLaughlin (St.Mary's College/Leinster/5)
7 - Tommy O'Donnell (UL Bohemians/Munster)*
8 - James Coughlin (Dolphin/Munster)* Captain
Replacements:
16 - Damien Varley (Garryowen/Munster/2)
17 - Tom Court (Malone/Ulster/29)
18 - Declan Fitzpatrick (Dungannon /Ulster/2)
19 - Iain Henderson (Ballynahinch/Ulster/2)
20 - Rhys Ruddock (St. Mary's College/Leinster/1)
21 - Isaac Boss (Terenure College/Leinster/15)
22 - Ian Madigan (Blackrock College/Leinster)*

Dont know how to price up a scratch team with new combos.
The english team looks to have a strong backline lots of pace anyways.
23 - Ian Keatley (Young Munster/Munster/2)

[conspicuous]

15 - Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Connacht)*
14 - Andrew Trimble (Ballymena/Ulster/49)
13 - Darren Cave (Belfast Harlequins/Ulster/3)
12 - Dave McSharry (UCD/Connacht/)*
11 - Luke Fitzgerald (Blackrock College/Leinster/23)
10 - Paddy Jackson (Dungannon/Ulster)*
9 - Paul Marshall (Ballymena/Ulster/)*
1 - David Kilcoyne (UL Bohemians/Munster/2)
2 - Mike Sherry (Garryowen/Munster)*
3 - Michael Bent (Dublin University/Leinster/2)
4 - Lewis Stevenson (Malone/Ulster)*
5 - Devin Toner (Lansdowne/Leinster/3)
6 - Kevin McLaughlin (St.Mary's College/Leinster/5)
7 - Tommy O'Donnell (UL Bohemians/Munster)*
8 - James Coughlin (Dolphin/Munster)* Captain
Replacements:
16 - Damien Varley (Garryowen/Munster/2)
17 - Tom Court (Malone/Ulster/29)
18 - Declan Fitzpatrick (Dungannon /Ulster/2)
19 - Iain Henderson (Ballynahinch/Ulster/2)
20 - Rhys Ruddock (St. Mary's College/Leinster/1)
21 - Isaac Boss (Terenure College/Leinster/15)
22 - Ian Madigan (Blackrock College/Leinster)*

Dont know how to price up a scratch team with new combos.
The english team looks to have a strong backline lots of pace anyways.
23 - Ian Keatley (Young Munster/Munster/2)

As expected really apart from leaving Hnederson on the bench which probably means he will be in the matchday XXIII for the Wales match. Strong Irish backline but the pack may struggle. Bent has been disappointing for Leinster and we lack ballcarriers. I wouldn't touch the match from a punting perspective. Probably be about England -5 at a guess

[Guest]

I would like to apologise to any punters whos credit rating i have affected with my quoting premierstone here [ Idiotic betting theorems ]

Im guessing my bit of craic with guessing the heineken cup caps upset him why else quote it?

Its a bit of fun and think we have turned more winners than losers like all geniuses on this board he offers fuck all but a big mouth.

[Emmet]

I would like to apologise to any punters whos credit rating i have affected with my quoting premierstone here [ Idiotic betting theorems ]

Im guessing my bit of craic with guessing the heineken cup caps upset him why else quote it?

Its a bit of fun and think we have turned more winners than losers like all geniuses on this board he offers fuck all but a big mouth.

the value of your investment can go down as well as up

[premierstone]

I would like to apologise to any punters whos credit rating i have affected with my quoting premierstone here [ Idiotic betting theorems ]

Im guessing my bit of craic with guessing the heineken cup caps upset him why else quote it?

Its a bit of fun and think we have turned more winners than losers like all geniuses on this board he offers fuck all but a big mouth.

lol your a sad little basta*d really, but well done you have had your first winner of the year, you are on my ignore list

PS I did not quote it, you were the one who brought it up on an unrelated matter. As I said sad.

[conspicuous]

lol your a sad little basta*d really, but well done you have had your first winner of the year, you are on my ignore list

PS I did not quote it, you were the one who brought it up on an unrelated matter. As I said sad.

Premierstone I think you need to retreat from the keyboard for a while. You haven't come across well in this thread. I hadn't noticed you before your comment yesterday that appeared a bit patronising . You follow this up today by going full mental in your aggression towards Sickpuppy. I don't know anything about your history with SP and I don't really care either but we could all do without you causing trouble in a thread that is usually conducted in a friendly, helpful atmosphere. Thank you

[premierstone]

Premierstone I think you need to retreat from the keyboard for a while. You haven't come across well in this thread. I hadn't noticed you before your comment yesterday that appeared a bit patronising . You follow this up today by going full mental in your aggression towards Sickpuppy. I don't know anything about your history with SP and I don't really care either but we could all do without you causing trouble in a thread that is usually conducted in a friendly, helpful atmosphere. Thank you

Thanks for the advice buddy

[Mickey Rosa]

Probably be about England -5 at a guess

England +4 with Ladbrokes and others still not too interested though because no form whatsoever to go on

[tglynn]

Delighted that Robbie got a start. I'm friends with his brother and he's a top lad!

[Emmet]

Delighted that Robbie got a start. I'm friends with his brother and he's a top lad!

he's been playing brilliantly. Full of beans. Completely deserves his run.

Confidence is so important for back 3 players. I hear he plays a fair bit at 13 too?

[conspicuous]

he's been playing brilliantly. Full of beans. Completely deserves his run.

Confidence is so important for back 3 players. I hear he plays a fair bit at 13 too?

I believe he played mostly outside centre at schools and representative levels. Gavin Duffy's injury opened the door for him earlier than anyone expected and he hasn't looked back. I'd be more confident of Henshaw making it at international level than anyone else of his age group He's such a natural talent with plenty of confidence as you say. He has the size physicality to make at the highest level too.

[conspicuous]

England +4 with Ladbrokes and others still not too interested though because no form whatsoever to go on

Ye I guess I can see where they're coming from. Ireland at home, much more experienced etc. I still think we will struggle up front and the weather forecast is for wind and rain so our back 3 won't come into it. I won't be punting on the game but I think England will win. Hopefully I'm wrong

[Mickey Rosa]

Just looked at this again, and the more I look at it the more I think England are the better play. They have a much stronger 9/10 axis and front 5. Crane has being playing well for Leicester and Robson and Gray have played key roles for Quins.
As has been said rain in Galway means that this will be won up front, I fancy England to do a number on our front row, not to the level of Twickenham last year but enough to force some penalties. As i've said this is in no way a lock and I'll be playing very low but I'll take a small punt on England at 2.5 given that their experienced players are in positions where they will have more effect tomorrow night.

[amberleaf]

tenner on mike sherry @ 28/1 with laddies for first tryscorer for fun,with the forecast of wet and windy might end up peeling off a maul and flopping over

[Mickey Rosa]

Played out pretty much like I thought it would, was able to get on England +10 at HT at 2.05 which was crazy given how the game was played.

[Guest]

Played out pretty much like I thought it would, was able to get on England +10 at HT at 2.05 which was crazy given how the game was played.

Ya i put small note england 7/1 in bbv.

Took the +10 was crazy considering the scrum in bits and breeze.
Ireland played so stupidly kicked everything against a wind learn at under14s not to do that.
Bent got mashed

[conspicuous]

Ya i put small note england 7/1 in bbv.

Took the +10 was crazy considering the scrum in bits and breeze.
Ireland played so stupidly kicked everything against a wind learn at under14s not to do that.
Bent got mashed

Nice one. I watched the match in the pub so wasn't watching the betting in running. 7/1 was sick value at half time given the conditions

[conspicuous]

Been thinking about top tryscorer for 6N over the last few days with a strong urge to back Chris Ashton. After someone started a thread on PR I got involved and did some research. It's obviously not an exact science but here's my findings that point strongly to a prolific English outside back finishing top of the pile

Recent top scorers in the 6 Nations

2012 Tommy Bowe 5 tries
2011 Chris Ashton 6 tries
2010 Earls, Bowe Hook, Williams 3 tries
2009 BOD, Flutey 4 tries
2008 Shane Williams 6 tries
2007 ROG, Robinson 4 tries
2006 Bergamasco, Horgan 3 tries
2005 Cueto 4 tries
2004 Horinorduquay, Cohen, Rhys Williams, 4 tries


Going by the above stats its highly likely
a]that the top scorer will be a winger
b] He will also probably play for a team that either wins the championship or has home matches against Scotland and Italy or both[note England are home to Italy and Scotland and are joint favs]
c] In the years 05, 07, 09 and 2011 the award has been won or shared by an English outside back
d] The French seem to spread their tries around and haven't had a top scorer since 2004

My gut feeling before looking at this information was to have a decent punt on Ashton for top try scorer. Looking at this information I'll probably increase my bet. 9/1 [Paddy Power]is pretty decent odds although there is obviously a higher element of risk given the short nature of the tournament. The other thing that appeals to me about backing Ashton is that England's first match is at home to Scotland and if he bags a few there[good chance] his odds will be slashed to price we can then trade at. Tuilagi was another option but is now injured. Foden at 25/1 also interests me

Thoughts ?

[Aya14]

Wouldn't be mad keen on taking 9/1 about a top tryscorer in a competition with 5 games per nation. Injuries/bans can mean missing the entire remainder of the competition after round one.
It depends too in England's case who plays in the centre now with Barret. If they go Flood at 10 with Farrell centre which I think they will, you'll see Barrett take up a lot of ball on the crash quick recycling from there could see tries come from anywhere if Eng are on the front foot. If it's Billy Twelvetrees at 12 it'll be slower ball and more kicking deep.

As for your 4 points
a) fair enough
b) good point. Can't see England running in many tries against Ire or Fra so you could be relying on those Italy and Scotland fixtures for Ashton to score 4+ tries.
c) not exactly sure what your point is here. If it's that an English back 3 wins it every second year. That's a pretty useless stat.
c) {again! :-) } yes France score tries from all over the park when they turn it on. But I think Bofana scored 4 last year so they can have a consistent scorer also.

In essence it's not a bad pick IMO in Ashton. Just the price is short for my liking. It should be a small fun bet if anything and I wouldn't encourage raising your stake like you're saying.
I'd be interested to see what price Zebo is also a forward at a massive price for a random punt someone like Heaslip or Parisse.

Anyway good luck with your bet.

[corigi]

Wouldn't be mad keen on taking 9/1 about a top tryscorer in a competition with 5 games per nation. Injuries/bans can mean missing the entire remainder of the competition after round one.
It depends too in England's case who plays in the centre now with Barret. If they go Flood at 10 with Farrell centre which I think they will, you'll see Barrett take up a lot of ball on the crash quick recycling from there could see tries come from anywhere if Eng are on the front foot. If it's Billy Twelvetrees at 12 it'll be slower ball and more kicking deep.

As for your 4 points
a) fair enough
b) good point. Can't see England running in many tries against Ire or Fra so you could be relying on those Italy and Scotland fixtures for Ashton to score 4+ tries.
c) not exactly sure what your point is here. If it's that an English back 3 wins it every second year. That's a pretty useless stat.
c) {again! :-) } yes France score tries from all over the park when they turn it on. But I think Bofana scored 4 last year so they can have a consistent scorer also.

In essence it's not a bad pick IMO in Ashton. Just the price is short for my liking. It should be a small fun bet if anything and I wouldn't encourage raising your stake like you're saying.
I'd be interested to see what price Zebo is also a forward at a massive price for a random punt someone like Heaslip or Parisse.

Anyway good luck with your bet.

Emm I presume his Stat about England player winning every second year is not a useless stat its actually very important stat.
Every second year England have 3 homes games where as France only have 2 home games and they have to play Ire and Eng away.On top of that they play Italy away in 1st game which is the worst time to play them.Mainly because they will have close to fully fit team and be raring to go in front of their home fans and most likely make it hard on France for 60 mins which means less chances of France running in lots of tries.It will also take France time too click like every team as they not played International since Autumn Internationals

Where as England have Italy home which is more likely to run up big score.France are -12 this week against them but England probably be -22 or something like which obviously means highly likelyhood of scoring more tries against them.

Like doing any bet on the 6 Nations every other year is big difference compared to the in between year because of the 3 Home / 2 Away split and via verse.

[Aya14]

Point taken. Like I said I wasn't sure where he was going with it. Very valid stat then

[conspicuous]

Wouldn't be mad keen on taking 9/1 about a top tryscorer in a competition with 5 games per nation. Injuries/bans can mean missing the entire remainder of the competition after round one.
It depends too in England's case who plays in the centre now with Barret. If they go Flood at 10 with Farrell centre which I think they will, you'll see Barrett take up a lot of ball on the crash quick recycling from there could see tries come from anywhere if Eng are on the front foot. If it's Billy Twelvetrees at 12 it'll be slower ball and more kicking deep.

As for your 4 points
a) fair enough
b) good point. Can't see England running in many tries against Ire or Fra so you could be relying on those Italy and Scotland fixtures for Ashton to score 4+ tries.
c) not exactly sure what your point is here. If it's that an English back 3 wins it every second year. That's a pretty useless stat.
c) {again! :-) } yes France score tries from all over the park when they turn it on. But I think Bofana scored 4 last year so they can have a consistent scorer also.

In essence it's not a bad pick IMO in Ashton. Just the price is short for my liking. It should be a small fun bet if anything and I wouldn't encourage raising your stake like you're saying.
I'd be interested to see what price Zebo is also a forward at a massive price for a random punt someone like Heaslip or Parisse.

Anyway good luck with your bet.

lol you've kind of missed the points, quite spectacularly in some cases, but anyway, it's getting late. I'll try to clear up any misunderstandings

a]A winger has won or shared the top try scorer award[if there is a prize] in 8 of the last 9 years. The exception is 2009 when BOD and Flutey, two centres, both scored 4 tries

b] England score their highest number of tries in home fixtures v Italy and Scotland, fixtures that both occur in years ending in odd numbers. Similarly Ireland have had prolific try scorers in years ending in even numbers, when we play Italy, Scotland and Wales at home

c] You've probably worked out my point here by now as it relates to" b". English wingers have been top try scorers outright in 3 of the last 4 years ending in an odd number ie 05, 07 and 2011. In 2009 Flutey shared it with Bod. In case you are wondering what relevance odd numbers have then let me explain something. Teams rotate fixtures on a home and away basis. This is set in stone and the draw merely decides the order of matches. For example Ireland will always play England and France at home in years ending in odd numbers, while we play Italy, Scotland and Wales away. We then play the reciprocal fixtures in the years ending in even numbers. And so my point wasn't just that an English back is top scorer every second year but that in years like this, where there fixture offers them better opportunities to score tries, then the chances of one of their outside backs being top scorer increases dramatically

other c/d]I never said France couldn't produce a high try scorer. I tried to examine the likelihood of certain players from different countries being top scorer from a limited but relevant sample size. France haven't had a player at the top of the try scoring charts since Harinorduquay shared top spot in 2004. Incidentally this was the last year a forward figured at the top of the list. Fofana[not Bofana's friend ] is a prodigious talent and may indeed end as top scorer. It doesn't change my belief that Ashton is value at 9/1 though

Zebo is a fair shout and available at 25/1 with WH[20'S most other places]. I wouldn't waste a cent on the forwards you mentioned. Good luck with your bets too

[Aya14]

Lol yeah. I take those points on board and don't think I got my own point across.
I don't see any value in backing anyone who doesn't have a ludicrous advantage at 9/1 to be a top tryscorer. Somany variables can effect this market. Match tactics, weather etc,.

Lol ya I always spell Fofana as Bofana( it's the Rastafarian in me)

Overall I'd rather back someone at high double figure odds in these markets. I see them as fun bets only never to be taken seriously. That's mainly because there so unpredictable and admittedly I don't know a lot about them.
Also now after mentioning those three players I'll have to stick a small bet on them to be top tryscorer FML

[conspicuous]

Lol yeah. I take those points on board and don't think I got my own point across.
I don't see any value in backing anyone who doesn't have a ludicrous advantage at 9/1 to be a top tryscorer. Somany variables can effect this market. Match tactics, weather etc,.

Lol ya I always spell Fofana as Bofana( it's the Rastafarian in me)

Overall I'd rather back someone at high double figure odds in these markets. I see them as fun bets only never to be taken seriously. That's mainly because there so unpredictable and admittedly I don't know a lot about them.
Also now after mentioning those three players I'll have to stick a small bet on them to be top tryscorer FML

lol no worries at all and in fairness my point didn't make much sense if you didn't know about the alternating home and away fixtures. To be honest I rarely if ever bet on top tryscorer in any competition. As you say too many variables and the bookies usually have huge overround as most people only get involved as a novelty bet. However I've had the urge over the last few days to get involved in this market given my confidence in England to be pretty dominant in this tournament especially at home. I've also done a bit of research which shows a trend over the last 10 years . I won't be losing my shirt on this market but I will feel I missed an opportunity if Ashton or Foden is top scorer and I havn't had a punt

[Guest]

Been thinking about top tryscorer for 6N over the last few days with a strong urge to back Chris Ashton. After someone started a thread on PR I got involved and did some research. It's obviously not an exact science but here's my findings that point strongly to a prolific English outside back finishing top of the pile

Recent top scorers in the 6 Nations

2012 Tommy Bowe 5 tries
2011 Chris Ashton 6 tries
2010 Earls, Bowe Hook, Williams 3 tries
2009 BOD, Flutey 4 tries
2008 Shane Williams 6 tries
2007 ROG, Robinson 4 tries
2006 Bergamasco, Horgan 3 tries
2005 Cueto 4 tries
2004 Horinorduquay, Cohen, Rhys Williams, 4 tries


Going by the above stats its highly likely
a]that the top scorer will be a winger
b] He will also probably play for a team that either wins the championship or has home matches against Scotland and Italy or both[note England are home to Italy and Scotland and are joint favs]
c] In the years 05, 07, 09 and 2011 the award has been won or shared by an English outside back
d] The French seem to spread their tries around and haven't had a top scorer since 2004

My gut feeling before looking at this information was to have a decent punt on Ashton for top try scorer. Looking at this information I'll probably increase my bet. 9/1 [Paddy Power]is pretty decent odds although there is obviously a higher element of risk given the short nature of the tournament. The other thing that appeals to me about backing Ashton is that England's first match is at home to Scotland and if he bags a few there[good chance] his odds will be slashed to price we can then trade at. Tuilagi was another option but is now injured. Foden at 25/1 also interests me

Thoughts ?

Has Fodens form not been poor.
That wife has the bollix worn off him id say.
Think Goode will be Englands full back and possibly Brown as second chocie can cover wing too.
The 9/1 on Ashton looks very good to me.
Scotland are very poor and despite all the bs tak about on any given day Italy are brutal too.
With Wales in crisis can see England racking up big scores and Ashton benefiting.

[amberleaf]

Has Fodens form not been poor.
That wife has the bollix worn off him id say.
Think Goode will be Englands full back and possibly Brown as second chocie can cover wing too.
The 9/1 on Ashton looks very good to me.
Scotland are very poor and despite all the bs tak about on any given day Italy are brutal too.
With Wales in crisis can see England racking up big scores and Ashton benefiting.

just watched that documentary thinghy on rte,apparently they use billions of calculations on rugby,wonder if foden getting the bollix worn off him was calculated into price.

[conspicuous]

Has Fodens form not been poor.
That wife has the bollix worn off him id say.
Think Goode will be Englands full back and possibly Brown as second chocie can cover wing too.
The 9/1 on Ashton looks very good to me.
Scotland are very poor and despite all the bs tak about on any given day Italy are brutal too.
With Wales in crisis can see England racking up big scores and Ashton benefiting.

You couldn't blame him for that in fairnes. The word I'm getting is that Foden might start with concerns over Goode's fitness. He may also feature on the wing. He's an incredible attacking talent and his odds of 25/1 interested me given the other factors in his favour. It will only be a small bet though if it does go on

[conspicuous]

Ireland team to play Wales on Saturday

Gilroy in ahead of Earls
POM selected ahead of Henry
Bent told where to go
ROG retains bench spot

Kearney
Zebo
BOD
Darcy
Gilroy
Sexton
Murray
Heaslip
SOB
POM
Ryan
McCarthy
Ross
Best
Healy

Subs:
Kilcoyne, Cronin, Fitzpatrick, DOC, Henry, Reddan, ROG, Earls

[Aya14]

Foden released along with Johnaton Joseph.

Twelvetrees in the 23. So I reckon its Flood at 10 with Farrell in the centre

[corigi]

Has Fodens form not been poor.
That wife has the bollix worn off him id say.
Think Goode will be Englands full back and possibly Brown as second chocie can cover wing too.
The 9/1 on Ashton looks very good to me.
Scotland are very poor and despite all the bs tak about on any given day Italy are brutal too.
With Wales in crisis can see England racking up big scores and Ashton benefiting.

Foden been dropped..
Clerc missing 1st game
M Tuilagi missing 1st game/maybe 2 games

More reasons to back back Ashton


What people think of over 9.5 tries for Ireland at 5/6?

Seems they covered that pretty much every year recently and that was including some years where we where more defensive/forward orientated.

With Gilroy/Zebo starting looks like we going with more attacking pace options.
The last game is against Italy so think would need min of 6 tries in 1st 4 games which should be very possible.
Will wait to see if roof closed or open this week against Wales.Even if we lose few games can still see us scoring decent amount of tries would obviously prefer Reddan to bring quicker ball but think he probably be brought on with 20 mins to go in most games.

[conspicuous]

Foden been dropped..
Clerc missing 1st game
M Tuilagi missing 1st game/maybe 2 games

More reasons to back back Ashton


What people think of over 9.5 tries for Ireland at 5/6?

Seems they covered that pretty much every year recently and that was including some years where we where more defensive/forward orientated.

With Gilroy/Zebo starting looks like we going with more attacking pace options.
The last game is against Italy so think would need min of 6 tries in 1st 4 games which should be very possible.
Will wait to see if roof closed or open this week against Wales.Even if we lose few games can still see us scoring decent amount of tries would obviously prefer Reddan to bring quicker ball but think he probably be brought on with 20 mins to go in most games.

I wouldn't be mad about to be honest. We had a good try count last year but that was mainly down to home matches against Scotland and Italy. We're not near as prolific in Edinburgh or Rome[in recent years anyway]. England and France both look very strong this year too so there might not be many try scoring opportunities there. Selections suggest a more attacking gameplan but me must allow for the absence of Tommy Bowe who has an incredible try scoring record in this competition

[corigi]

I wouldn't be mad about to be honest. We had a good try count last year but that was mainly down to home matches against Scotland and Italy. We're not near as prolific in Edinburgh or Rome[in recent years anyway]. England and France both look very strong this year too so there might not be many try scoring opportunities there. Selections suggest a more attacking gameplan but me must allow for the absence of Tommy Bowe who has an incredible try scoring record in this competition

We have score the below tries last 5 years

2012: 13
2011: 10
2010: 11
2009: 12
2008: 8

Yep last time we only got 1 try away to Italy but that was in the 1st game of the year worse time to play Italy and we still managed to get 10 tries in that year.
This year France-England have improved but still fancy our chances of getting 3-4 tries against them esp been at home to them.

This year our backs will be able to do lot more damage with so much pace.Its not only pace as Gilroy/Zebo can create tries out of nothing.

For so long Kidney and played the consertivite way and basically refused to let the players think on their feet.He mainly told them to play in certain way as opposed to free flowing rugby them most of them(Backs) played with Leinster.

Maybe this year for once he has decided to give some youngsters will proven attacking ability (Defense still needs lots of work) a chance to go out their and play.He defo would not have picked that team if he was planning on playing territory style rugby.

Wales are missing half a team and struggling after losing their last 7 games but be very disappointing if we could not score 2 tries or so providing roof is closed obviously

England / France will be hard to beat but with been at home I can see us causing them problems

Scotland could be tricky as per normal away to them but we usually get 1 try and would still expect same or maybe 2/3 if we get good start

Italy unless it shocking weather we will score 2 or more tries against them

Be shocked if I do not least have run for my money going into last game if not be close to having bet up before last game

[ArmaniJeans]

Checking back we haven't failed to get 10 or more under this schedule of fixtures since the competition was expanded to six nations.

[conspicuous]

We have score the below tries last 5 years

2012: 13
2011: 10
2010: 11
2009: 12
2008: 8

Yep last time we only got 1 try away to Italy but that was in the 1st game of the year worse time to play Italy and we still managed to get 10 tries in that year.
This year France-England have improved but still fancy our chances of getting 3-4 tries against them esp been at home to them.

This year our backs will be able to do lot more damage with so much pace.Its not only pace as Gilroy/Zebo can create tries out of nothing.

For so long Kidney and played the consertivite way and basically refused to let the players think on their feet.He mainly told them to play in certain way as opposed to free flowing rugby them most of them(Backs) played with Leinster.

Maybe this year for once he has decided to give some youngsters will proven attacking ability (Defense still needs lots of work) a chance to go out their and play.He defo would not have picked that team if he was planning on playing territory style rugby.

Wales are missing half a team and struggling after losing their last 7 games but be very disappointing if we could not score 2 tries or so providing roof is closed obviously

England / France will be hard to beat but with been at home I can see us causing them problems

Scotland could be tricky as per normal away to them but we usually get 1 try and would still expect same or maybe 2/3 if we get good start

Italy unless it shocking weather we will score 2 or more tries against them

Be shocked if I do not least have run for my money going into last game if not be close to having bet up before last game

All reasonable points and I agree with most of what you say. However we are taking it on trust that Zebo and Gilroy will be consistent scorers at this level. Both Bowe and Earls have excellent stats as international wingers so the two 6N debutants will have big shoes to fill. I'm also pessimistic about our chances of scoring tries against England. I think England will overpower us and dominate posession and territory leaving us with few opportunities. I do think you will get a decent sweat for your money and you may well win. I just hate them 5/6 shots unless I'm really confident about an outcome. This one is closer to a coin flip for me though. Best of luck with your bet though I hope you're collecting next weekend

[premierstone]

The word I'm getting is that Foden might start with concerns over Goode's fitness. He may also feature on the wing.

Foden released along with Johnaton Joseph.

Foden been dropped.

conspicuous u might want to change your sources, they were slightly off on this one

[conspicuous]

conspicuous u might want to change your sources, they were slightly off on this one

We have a live one lads. Might be a bit of value here

[premierstone]

lol so whats the word today??

[conspicuous]

lol so whats the word today??

Havn't a clue as I'm only out of bed. Why are you such an angry young man ?

[Emmet]

well the word today is that Kearney rolled an ankle/knee in training.

Might we see the return of Zebo to full back with Earls promoted to the wing?