RUGBY BETTING THREAD

[Micknail]

Was at the game freezing my dick off. Livid at Connacht turning down points!

I forgive you.

[amberleaf]

think Ospreys- 8 is worth a pop v the dragons tomorrow (4.15 live on s4c)more or less the same line up that battered scarlets 32-3 over xmas,Ospreys themselfs are the defending champs and are now in 6th and will be chasing the play offs hard, with the dragons down in second last with only zebre behind.they look to be ahead in every aspect by these line ups,there pack stands out to me here


dragons v ospreys

Hallam Amos 15 Richard Fussell
Will Harries 14 Ross Jones
Pat Leach 13 Tom Isaacs
Andy Tuilagi 12 Andrew Bishop
Tom Prydie 11 Eli Walker
Lewis Robling 10 Dan Biggar
Jonathan Evans 9 Kahn Fotuali'i
Phil Price 1 Ryan Bevington
Sam Parry 2 Richard Hibbard
Dan Way 3 Adam Jones
Andrew Coombs 4 Lloyd Peers
Robert Sidoli 5 James King
Lewis Evans 6 Ryan Jones
Nic Cudd 7 Sam Lewis
Toby Faletau 8 Joe Bearman

http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/matchcentre/15509.php

[Guest]

think Ospreys- 8 is worth a pop v the dragons tomorrow (4.15 live on s4c)more or less the same line up that battered scarlets 32-3 over xmas,Ospreys themselfs are the defending champs and are now in 6th and will be chasing the play offs hard, with the dragons down in second last with only zebre behind.they look to be ahead in every aspect by these line ups,there pack stands out to me here


dragons v ospreys

Hallam Amos 15 Richard Fussell
Will Harries 14 Ross Jones
Pat Leach 13 Tom Isaacs
Andy Tuilagi 12 Andrew Bishop
Tom Prydie 11 Eli Walker
Lewis Robling 10 Dan Biggar
Jonathan Evans 9 Kahn Fotuali'i
Phil Price 1 Ryan Bevington
Sam Parry 2 Richard Hibbard
Dan Way 3 Adam Jones
Andrew Coombs 4 Lloyd Peers
Robert Sidoli 5 James King
Lewis Evans 6 Ryan Jones
Nic Cudd 7 Sam Lewis
Toby Faletau 8 Joe Bearman

http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/matchcentre/15509.php

Just doing some research on Dragons newbies and the fly half is 21 very little experience
also the scrum half is 20 and again is very green.
Facing them the excellent Foutalil and Biggar is a fine player too.
Besides that the the dragons are godawful they lose all there best players unfortunately a bit like Connacht in that regard.
The Ospreys front row looks very strong with hairy beast Adam Jones back and hell cause problems at scrum time wet and windy lots of scrums.

Ospreys are very strong at half backs and Eli Walker is a flyer with ball in hand.
Strong in the center with Beck, Blonde hairy beast jones and Jonathan Thomas lots of experience tp come off the bench.

Even though Ospreys have a poor record at Rodney parade could and should get a 5 pointer tommorow covering the handicap spreys by 15 good spot Amberleaf

[Donk Magnet]

Just doing some research on Dragons newbies and the fly half is 21 very little experience
also the scrum half is 20 and again is very green.
Facing them the excellent Foutalil and Biggar is a fine player too.
Besides that the the dragons are godawful they lose all there best players unfortunately a bit like Connacht in that regard.
The Ospreys front row looks very strong with hairy beast Adam Jones back and hell cause problems at scrum time wet and windy lots of scrums.

Ospreys are very strong at half backs and Eli Walker is a flyer with ball in hand.
Strong in the center with Beck, Blonde hairy beast jones and Jonathan Thomas lots of experience tp come off the bench.

Even though Ospreys have a poor record at Rodney parade could and should get a 5 pointer tommorow covering the handicap spreys by 15 good spot Amberleaf

-15 7/4 and -11 13/10 on powers lumpage??

[Guest]

-15 7/4 and -11 13/10 on powers lumpage??

Its going to be wet and windy which is a great leveller and increases handling errors.
Id not say lumpage but thimk the handicap -8pts @10/11 is value.

[Guest]

7 - 3 To Ospreys mucky crappy game.30 mins gone
Cant understand Ospreys had Fragons scrum wheeling back straight about 7 or 8 metres and the ref Nigel Davies screams use it when should have been apenalty more scrums please.

Fucking Owens you clown Ospreys get shove on for a try from a scruma dn he accuses Ospreys of bringing it down why when they ae going forward?
Godawful game

14-3 Ospreys cover handicap brutal game but covered the bet.

[Guest]

Went with it as well squeaky bum time for a while, now to break PaddyPower on the soccer tomorrow

[Mickey Rosa]

If Edinburgh are any bigger that +7 this week it will be value imo. The hype around Drico/Kearney returning will increase it (from the word on the Leinsterfans site, where one of the posters info is never wrong Drico will start). The fact is though he has often been cold after a long time out looking back at the past couple of seasons same with Kearney.

Edinburgh haven't been good this year but at home have been competitive and kept the gap close. Leinster have much bigger games coming up and an empty and soulless Murrayfield won't inspire them to put Edinburgh to the sword.

Leinster won't want to show much of their hand with the HCup games in the next few weeks, added to this the fact that if ahead they will most certainly empty the bech around the 60 min mark.

In the Ospreys game, the only other one I've really looked at yet, if they name an in anyway strong team, i'd expect them to comfortably cover a large handicap against Zebre (nothing revolutionary in that pick I know)

[amberleaf]

If Edinburgh are any bigger that +7 this week it will be value imo. The hype around Drico/Kearney returning will increase it (from the word on the Leinsterfans site, where one of the posters info is never wrong Drico will start). The fact is though he has often been cold after a long time out looking back at the past couple of seasons same with Kearney.

Edinburgh haven't been good this year but at home have been competitive and kept the gap close. Leinster have much bigger games coming up and an empty and soulless Murrayfield won't inspire them to put Edinburgh to the sword.

Leinster won't want to show much of their hand with the HCup games in the next few weeks, added to this the fact that if ahead they will most certainly empty the bech around the 60 min mark.

In the Ospreys game, the only other one I've really looked at yet, if they name an in anyway strong team, i'd expect them to comfortably cover a large handicap against Zebre (nothing revolutionary in that pick I know)

i dont know mickey,i've watched a fair bit of Edinburgh this season and they are very very poor,glasgow had them on the ropes in both games all over the field over xmas before letting them back in towards the end.in their current frame of mind i find it hard to trust them,cant really see leinster slowing up here as the pro 12 could very well be their season,as always have to look at the line ups,forecast etc but as for now would take leinster -7 if that was available.agree with the ospreys,perhaps the 2nd half hcp might be worth a look, zebre tend to hold the first half before falling apart in the second half,the playing surface will only help ospreys i would think.

[Mickey Rosa]

Very strong Leinster team named with the exception of Carr might have to slightly revise that pick but should get a large handicap now


LEINSTER:

15: Rob Kearney
14: Fionn Carr
13: Brian O'Driscoll
12: Gordon D'Arcy
11: Luke Fitzgerald
10: Jonathan Sexton
9: Eoin Reddan

1: Cian Healy
2: Sean Cronin
3: Mike Ross
4: Leo Cullen CAPTAIN
5: Devin Toner
6: Kevin McLaughlin
7: Sean O'Brien
8: Jamie Heaslip

REPLACEMENTS:

16: Aaron Dundon
17: Heinke van der Merwe
18: Michael Bent
19: Tom Denton
20: Shane Jennings
21: Isaac Boss
22: Ian Madigan
23: Andrew Conway

[amberleaf]

stronger than what Edinburgh have faced over the last few weeks thats for sure

[kpnuts]

B365 first out of the traps. They go Leinster -6. I like.

[Mickey Rosa]

+/-6 with 365 at that level I'm on Leinster.

[Thefonze]

Leinster -6 is the bet of the season so far. line should be closer to 12

[Mickey Rosa]

Already moved to -7

[Mickey Rosa]

Ospreys -28 is high enough, as Amber Leaf pointed out probably more value in the second half handicap at -13.5.

Had a little nibble on Scarlets +12 too, must be the first time in a long time 1st v 2nd was priced at such a high line. Admittedly Scarlets are ravaged by injury at the moment though.

[amberleaf]

agree 28 looks big alright but i think this depends on how zebre perform in the first half,they have a new back line on show which is prob. a good thing and if they can get a score on the board early than it would suit the second half hcp,on the other hand if zebre expand a little this opens plenty of space as the ospreys pack will most likely win that battle in return giving them plenty of attacking platforms,at home ospreys have put some decent scores on the board in the first half with v 19 points v scarlets and 16 v the blues,and the pro 12 is their season at this stage,hard to call for me tbh but going to half the stake and go with zebre + 14 in the first half hcp and if zeb can hold that,re-shove into the betting in running/in game markets depending on whats on offer,(can be huge value in these at time,but but obv.wouldn't over use them) with the ospreys minus at half time,will be getting 5/2(ish) on this and just about worth a pop at the odds,on a confidence scale of 1 to 10,its worth a two pointer for me at best as this is a very strong looking spreys team

[Thefonze]

Leinster -6 is the bet of the season so far. line should be closer to 12

Boom!

[amberleaf]

just had a small bet on no try scorer in the connacht/dragons,14/1 might be a little value here with powers

[KevIRL]

just had a small bet on no try scorer in the connacht/dragons,14/1 might be a little value here with powers

Is this bet still live if the only try in the first half was a penalty try?

[corigi]

Is this bet still live if the only try in the first half was a penalty try?

1st Tryscorer : Predict the score of the 1st Try. Penalty tries do not count, in the event of a penalty try being the only try of the match, “No Tryscorer” will be settled as the winner.

So your bet should be still live

[KevIRL]

1st Tryscorer : Predict the score of the 1st Try. Penalty tries do not count, in the event of a penalty try being the only try of the match, “No Tryscorer” will be settled as the winner.

So your bet should be still live

Figured it would be, but wanted confirmation. Thanks for that.

Unfortunately early try in the second half was enough to kill it

[Guest]

Small double on sracens-8pts@ 2/5
and harlequins -4pts@2/5 also

[amberleaf]

Small double on sracens-8pts@ 2/5
and harlequins -4pts@2/5 also

nice one,just saw the highlights the quinns made it a sweat

1st Tryscorer : Predict the score of the 1st Try. Penalty tries do not count, in the event of a penalty try being the only try of the match, “No Tryscorer” will be settled as the winner.

So your bet should be still live

strange mine came back as void,not that i'm complaining just not sure why

[V for Vendetta]

Heineken cup thoughts.

Having watched the weekends games I really feel leinster will get 5 points this weekend and then if the other results go their way I'd fancy them to get 5 points against the Chiefs if it would be sufficient to put them through.

The pack are beginning to work well and SOB is playing very well now that he's lost the bit of extra fat but held onto the extra muscle he's gained during his lay off.

Rob Kearney at the back and BOD make a huge difference to the scoring potential of the team it's unreal.

Even with the backs at 7/10 if the pack fire like I think they will against Scarlets that will be plenty.

The only issue in the team is scrum half and the second row and I fancy Boss and Browne to be good enough against Scarlets and Exeter.

The very interesting bit is how other results will go this weekend as you could have plenty of interest in being ranked 3rd or 4th going into the Quarters but not 1st or 2nd on the final weekend which may have interesting ramifications from a betting perspective.

Alternatively I may yet get to travel to Clermont to watch leinster taking them on for the third time this season.....

If Ulster start Pienaar at 10 for the next two games I think they'll definitely qualify. They have a steely determination and belief about them that was lacking last season.

[Emmet]

Agreed. Scarlets game is our cup final though. If we absolutely batter them (which we absolutely should) then we go to Exeter on a high with results elsewhere to be considered (but ultimately ignored with the intention of tearing a pretty disciplined Exeter team a new one).

I think we could tear Scarlets apart tbh. Was at the first leg, and was wholly disappointed we didn't put 5/6 tries past them that day (might come back to bite us!).

I'm going to take the Leinster side of any HC up to 18 points, and possibly further.

[Guest]

Paddy has prices up Ulster -16 V Glasgow Friday night.
All saturday games look like simple home wins big hcps.
Leinster-19pts V scarlets
Toulon -21 V cardiff Toulon lost at home V Racing at weekend i expect amassive backlash even if Cardiff beat Munster away.
Cardiff are very poor have 1 point from four games and play with no heart.
If its dry Toulon could rack up a huge score here nothing else will satisfy there lunatic owner and home fans.
If its not a full strength Cardiff team id lump on Toulon esp as you may get -20 - 19 at other bookmakers.

Clermont at home to Exeter -19 as well not having lost in 3 years at home and demolished Exeter away totally outmuscled them ad will bring the pain on saturday.
Again if its dry they have to be fancied to cover the handicap esp if Exeter dont play a full team they may concentrate on the english Aviva premier league.

Really need to have the trigger on the finger as soon as the teams are named because prices will plummet if weakened teams are picked by the teams with nothing to play for.


Unrelated to betting a disgrace Hendre Fourie who retired from injury has had to leave England and played 8times has a son born there and has paid a shed load of taxes is being forced to leave.
Considering the amount of scumbags who come in illegally have a child and get let stay its disgusting imo the man has had a positive influence can represent the country and not stay.
Ive seen it in ireland too decent folks from Australia and New zealand forced go whilst the flood gates are open to all manner of crooks and scammers quite shameful imo.

[Mickey Rosa]

19 and 21 are seriously big handicaps, Leinster could conceivably get the 4 try bonus point and still not cover that.

[Emmet]

ffs. Hate when my line tallies!

[conspicuous]

Paddy has prices up Ulster -16 V Glasgow Friday night.
All saturday games look like simple home wins big hcps.
Leinster-19pts V scarlets
Toulon -21 V cardiff Toulon lost at home V Racing at weekend i expect amassive backlash even if Cardiff beat Munster away.
Cardiff are very poor have 1 point from four games and play with no heart.
If its dry Toulon could rack up a huge score here nothing else will satisfy there lunatic owner and home fans.
If its not a full strength Cardiff team id lump on Toulon esp as you may get -20 - 19 at other bookmakers.

Clermont at home to Exeter -19 as well not having lost in 3 years at home and demolished Exeter away totally outmuscled them ad will bring the pain on saturday.
Again if its dry they have to be fancied to cover the handicap esp if Exeter dont play a full team they may concentrate on the english Aviva premier league.

Really need to have the trigger on the finger as soon as the teams are named because prices will plummet if weakened teams are picked by the teams with nothing to play for.


Unrelated to betting a disgrace Hendre Fourie who retired from injury has had to leave England and played 8times has a son born there and has paid a shed load of taxes is being forced to leave.
Considering the amount of scumbags who come in illegally have a child and get let stay its disgusting imo the man has had a positive influence can represent the country and not stay.
Ive seen it in ireland too decent folks from Australia and New zealand forced go whilst the flood gates are open to all manner of crooks and scammers quite shameful imo.

Clermont -19 and Connacht +19 are my bets so far. Clermont are up against an Exeter side who are out of the competition and looked very tired last weekend when losing at home to Northampton. Clermont are focussed on winning the HEC and will be going all out for a bonus point win to assure themselves of a home 1/4 final
Connacht looked very sharp at the weekend with most of their first team available apart from the likes of long term absentees like Muldoon. I dont think they will beat Harlequins but they will cause them problems and hopefully keep the margin low. Harlequins have been doing enough to win lately without really convincing and if form hold I would expect a Quins win by 7-15 points.
The handicap on Toulon is now gone to -23. I'm not convinced their will be a backlash, somtimes teams suffer a bit of a slump midseason and with a squad full of superstars I'm sure it's difficult to keep harmony in the camp. Having said that Cardiff are pretty bad and I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose by 40+ if Toulon's attitude is right. I'm avoiding it though, too many uncertainties.

[conspicuous]

Leinster are now -21, looks about 5 points too big to me but I don't like getting involved with Leinster or Ireland

[Guest]

Leinster are now -21, looks about 5 points too big to me but I don't like getting involved with Leinster or Ireland

Id throw in Connacht there too horribly unreliable.

[amberleaf]

really fancy Toulon to put a big score up this weekend,if the blues turn up with the same defence strategy they used last weekend.14 across the field with one behind can see the forwards bringing the ball in to contact,recycle,hit the fringes thus sucking in the defence and finding space out wide and thats before we get into the lateral running from the backs hitting the line, everything munster didn't do last weekend.a few firms to price up as yet(stan james) but will be my biggest bet this weekend me thinks.think the total trys in the edinburgh v munster match might be worth a look,think we'll see a good few tries in this,again have to wait and see,might do a few try scorer bets closer to the game time.

[amberleaf]

really fancy Toulon to put a big score up this weekend,if the blues turn up with the same defence strategy they used last weekend.14 across the field with one behind can see the forwards bringing the ball in to contact,recycle,hit the fringes thus sucking in the defence and finding space out wide and thats before we get into the lateral running from the backs hitting the line, everything munster didn't do last weekend.a few firms to price up as yet(stan james) but will be my biggest bet this weekend me thinks.think the total trys in the edinburgh v munster match might be worth a look,think we'll see a good few tries in this,again have to wait and see,might do a few try scorer bets closer to the game time.

17 mins to go with Toulon 37 points ahead and in total control...fml

[conspicuous]

17 mins to go with Toulon 37 points ahead and in total control...fml

That must have been particularly sickening for yourslef or any Toulon backers. Bloody Taffs love playing rugby even when they're beat all ends up. My bets were a mixed bag this weekend. My losing prematch bet on Bayonne was covered by backing them in running. My strong feelings about a Connacht performance didn't quite materialise. Clermont were my biggest punt and thankfully they did the business without too much fuss. I've seen a lot of Exeter over the last few weeks and they're starting to look like a very tired team. This is their first HEC campaign and with a thin squad and a highly demanding AP schedule it all looks to be taking its toll. I would fancy Leinster to get a bonus point over there next weekend

[conspicuous]

Paddy Power have priced Leicester at -2 10/11 for this weekend's showdown with Toulouse at Welford Road. Leicester havn't lost at this venue in the HEC since 2006, a 20 match unbeaten run. They might not be the Leicester Tigers of old but they are still a formidable side especially when playing at home. Toulouse are surviving on reputation at the moment and I have never seen them play with a less inspiring half back partnership than Burgess and McAlliister. They have also been poor at the breakdown and so have struggled to put away weaker teams like Mont de Marasn. I expect them to step up in performance this weekend but unless they get a serious edge on Leicester in the set piece I can't see where their points will come from. Its a big bet on Leicester for me before the handicap goes out to 3 or 4

Leicester[-2] @10/11 with PP 6 pt bet

[Guest]

Still n heineken match prices up.
What do peeps reckon the Leinster spread will be ?
Have heard -17 by one shrewd enough punter well see.

[amberleaf]

Still n heineken match prices up.
What do peeps reckon the Leinster spread will be ?
Have heard -17 by one shrewd enough punter well see.

apparently exeter will be wheeling out the full choir for this and have a very Impressive home record with just one bonus point win got there in all comps by away teams in the last 30 odd home games,might be interested in the first try scorer market,think there could be a little value to be found in the leinster forwards in particular.

[Emmet]

apparently exeter will be wheeling out the full choir for this and have a very Impressive home record with just one bonus point win got there in all comps by away teams in the last 30 odd home games,might be interested in the first try scorer market,think there could be a little value to be found in the leinster forwards in particular.

Also, weather to play a factor. Cold and wet.

[conspicuous]

apparently exeter will be wheeling out the full choir for this and have a very Impressive home record with just one bonus point win got there in all comps by away teams in the last 30 odd home games,might be interested in the first try scorer market,think there could be a little value to be found in the leinster forwards in particular.

They don't have too many options selection wise. They have a thin squad who have exceeded all expectations over the last couple of years but now they are starting to creak a little. This is their first time playing in the HEC and battling on two fronts is starting to take its toll. I saw their match against Northampton where they looked like a very tired side and then against Clermont where they were totally out on their feet in the second half. They are a very proud club however with a strong local support and I'm sure they will be highly focussed with the European Champions coming into town. With most of Leinster's front liners back in the fold and another game behind them it reasonable to expect a further improvement on last week. Exeter's defence is robust and flat so I expect a different gameplan from Leinster to last weeks, a little less brawn and a lot more brain I would hope. CLermont scored some fine tries last weekend by running at Exeter and attacking them out wide and I expect something similar from Leinster. I might be interested in Kearney or Nacewa as first try scorer because you can be sure there will be a backs move called involving one of them coming into the line late

[amberleaf]

They don't have too many options selection wise. They have a thin squad who have exceeded all expectations over the last couple of years but now they are starting to creak a little. This is their first time playing in the HEC and battling on two fronts is starting to take its toll. I saw their match against Northampton where they looked like a very tired side and then against Clermont where they were totally out on their feet in the second half. They are a very proud club however with a strong local support and I'm sure they will be highly focussed with the European Champions coming into town. With most of Leinster's front liners back in the fold and another game behind them it reasonable to expect a further improvement on last week. Exeter's defence is robust and flat so I expect a different gameplan from Leinster to last weeks, a little less brawn and a lot more brain I would hope. CLermont scored some fine tries last weekend by running at Exeter and attacking them out wide and I expect something similar from Leinster. I might be interested in Kearney or Nacewa as first try scorer because you can be sure there will be a backs move called involving one of them coming into the line late

some good points there alright,Clermont were the only team to go there and get the bonus point but had to work hard for it and were behind at half time 12-10, baxter was sent to the bin early in the second half and Clermont took control,scoring two tries before exeter held the line, only for another two tries for clermont near the end with the scoreline of 12-46 just dont think that tells the full story of the game over all.then again that was last october and a lot of water under the bridge since then.just think that leinster will come here with massive intensity from their forwards right from the start,if they grind their way into the exeter 22 maybe someone like sob or healy could pop up for the first tryscorer at large odds,but will have to be patient before spreading the ball a little.(think i,ve just talked myself into the second half being the highest scoring half )will be Interesting to see how this unfolds.

[kpnuts]

Leinster -9. LIKE.

Can't see Leinster failing to get the 4 tries, Exeter will play for pride & probably cross for a couple themselves. Wouldn't be surprised if score something like 32-18 but happy to punt this cap hard.

[steve]

Leinster -9. LIKE.

Can't see Leinster failing to get the 4 tries, Exeter will play for pride & probably cross for a couple themselves. Wouldn't be surprised if score something like 32-18 but happy to punt this cap hard.

You can't see Leinster failing to get the four tries? Id be quite surprised if they did. This is gonna be a cracking game. I believe the chiefs are gonna be fully fired up for this one. one word of caution re the handicap. leinster are gonna be passing up kickable penalties that would keep the scoreboard ticking over in search of tries so those backing leinster -9 could find it a frustrating afternoon. wont be punting on the handicap here but exeter 11/2 with sporting bet is worth a nibble

[amberleaf]

small double on the second half being the highest scoring half(exeter v leinster) & and munster -19 @ 5/2(ish),fired a score on healy first tryscorer @ 22s for fun.

[conspicuous]

Looking at the Munster/Racing markets I feel compelled to go with Munster on the half time handicap of -9 with PP for a 4 point bet. If the match is played out as I expect it to Munster will be comfortably clear by half time. Motivation and focus won't be an issue and Munster are fully aware they have to score tries, hence I can see them coming out of the blocks fast. I have no great expectation of any sort of Racing performance given the team they sent over. I know Munster are no world beaters but serious intent v total apathy usually results in one winner.
Given that Racing probably won't contribute a huge amount to the scoreboard and the handicap is set at -19, I'm surprised Ladbrokes have set the total expected points at 43.5. I've taken the unders for a 2 point bet and I'm also going to have a sneaky small .5pt bet on Munster to win to nil @ 13/1 with PP
I backed Leicester -2 earlier in the week for a 6pt bet with PP. Toulouse haven't impressed me this season and Leicester at home in the HEC are always a solid bet

[Mickey Rosa]

Fully agree with the HT handicap.

[amberleaf]

really like the under 43.5 points,cant see this as being a wide open try fest at all, given what munster need to do to qualify.just one word of Caution in the ht hcp,munsters line out is not working well lately they may opt for three points at least early on before kicking for f/p but even so still looks worth a go,good spot.

[corigi]

really like the under 43.5 points,cant see this as being a wide open try fest at all, given what munster need to do to qualify.just one word of Caution in the ht hcp,munsters line out is not working well lately they may opt for three points at least early on before kicking for f/p but even so still looks worth a go,good spot.

Why would Munster go for 3 points early on? That would make no sense at all and be so stupid if they did,they need to score 4 tries to go through they also know they will win match so not like they have to worry about that bit..

Could imagine if they took 3 points early on then Metro held onto ball for short while suddenly 20 mins into match and got no tries be some pressure on them then

Sorry obviously they have to worry about winning but we both know they near certain

[Mickey Rosa]

HT handicap never in doubt despite Keaton not being able to kick a conversion. Great shout.

[amberleaf]

Why would Munster go for 3 points early on? That would make no sense at all and be so stupid if they did,they need to score 4 tries to go through they also know they will win match so not like they have to worry about that bit..

Could imagine if they took 3 points early on then Metro held onto ball for short while suddenly 20 mins into match and got no tries be some pressure on them then

Sorry obviously they have to worry about winning but we both know they near certain

na word of Caution based on looking back on past match reports,edinburgh in particular which at the time was a bonus point game,where munster took the points early,before opening out the game later on,obv completely wrong on my part.

HT handicap never in doubt despite Keaton not being able to kick a conversion. Great shout.

indeed.

[conspicuous]

I used up a good chunk of run good on Leicester today but I probably deserved it after a lot of near misses over the last couple of months. Thankfully I saved it for a big bet. Hope you all had a good weekend's punting. Now it's beer o clock

[amberleaf]

I used up a good chunk of run good on Leicester today but I probably deserved it after a lot of near misses over the last couple of months. Thankfully I saved it for a big bet. Hope you all had a good weekend's punting. Now it's beer o clock

see you had a good weekend over all,well done.i take it tobys on the christmas card list.must say gotta italian club rugby,it really is the gift that keeps on giving

[conspicuous]

see you had a good weekend over all,well done.i take it tobys on the christmas card list.must say gotta italian club rugby,it really is the gift that keeps on giving

Monsieur Lionel Beauxis will have the finest bottle of Brodeaux delivered to his door I'll miss the HEC punting, usually some bit of value to be found and a bit of banter to go with it. 6N is really tricky as the bookie are too faniliar with these encounters. Tow things I usually win on though, Italy ht handicaps and England v France match betting.

[Guest]

Monsieur Lionel Beauxis will have the finest bottle of Brodeaux delivered to his door I'll miss the HEC punting, usually some bit of value to be found and a bit of banter to go with it. 6N is really tricky as the bookie are too faniliar with these encounters. Tow things I usually win on though, Italy ht handicaps and England v France match betting.

Super 15 starting up in over 3 weeks.

[Guest]

Heinekten quarters and the road is open for Clermont to win i feel.

A home quarter against Montpellier who doNe really well to qualify should lead to a home semi verses Quins who have munster at home in there quarter.
Munster snook in after racing shot themselves in the foot with a half team and a man sent off aftre 7 mins Munster still made it hard on themselves.
Quins play nice rugby a high tempo off loading game with 8 9 10 axis particularly strong.

Gonna throw up what i think handicaps will be of course weather injuries form even will make huge difference come game time.

Toulon v Leicester
Just one slip up at home from Toulon when racing tackled them to a standstill.
However with the quality they have in the squad anything but a home victory would be a shock.
Leicester are a tough team at any stage but Toulon will win out by 13.
Handicap will be Toulon -11

Quins v Munster never write off Munster but im afraid there on the final furlong and the legs are gone.
Penneys game plan hard know what it is but Quins are flying and have the best 10 left in the competition in Nick Evans.
A high tempo game with exciting runnrrs like Mike Brown means its going to be a painful day for Munster i feel esp if Rog kicks the ball away at every oppurtunity dont have the backline to do damage and the forwards are underpowered.

Cap will be 11or 12 i fancy Quins to win by 18 or 19 given current form

Saracens V Ulster shoudl be toughest game to predict.
Sarries grind teams down threw hard work and a very tough pack have some excellent backs Ashton and Goode but rely on grunt more than guile.
If Ulster can play from a full deck Muller back is essential but can see Ferris still being crocked hard to know where to play Pienaar.
Munster fecked up by not getting a home quarter id fancy them over anyone in fortress Ravenhill.
Think the bookies will fancy Sarries by 4 points but Ulstherrrr to sneak it by 2 points.

Clermont V Montpellier
Clermont have it all so much power pace and a rich sugar daddy.
They also play the game at a ferocious speed when needed and when on song no one can keep pace with them.
A formidable pack with the brilliant Parra at 9 man rarely misses a kick followed by the best center partnership in the cup in Fofana and Rougerie wings Nalaga and Sivivatu tear teams apart too.
Montpellier will be brave and never give up but it wont be enoug.
Clermont to make a marker and hammer them handicap will be -12-13.
Clermont to win by 18

[conspicuous]

Heinekten quarters and the road is open for Clermont to win i feel.



A home quarter against Montpellier who doNe really well to qualify should lead to a home semi verses Quins who have munster at home in there quarter.
Munster snook in after racing shot themselves in the foot with a half team and a man sent off aftre 7 mins Munster still made it hard on themselves.
Quins play nice rugby a high tempo off loading game with 8 9 10 axis particularly strong.

Gonna throw up what i think handicaps will be of course weather injuries form even will make huge difference come game time.

Toulon v Leicester
Just one slip up at home from Toulon when racing tackled them to a standstill.
However with the quality they have in the squad anything but a home victory would be a shock.
Leicester are a tough team at any stage but Toulon will win out by 13.
Handicap will be Toulon -11

Quins v Munster never write off Munster but im afraid there on the final furlong and the legs are gone.
Penneys game plan hard know what it is but Quins are flying and have the best 10 left in the competition in Nick Evans.
A high tempo game with exciting runnrrs like Mike Brown means its going to be a painful day for Munster i feel esp if Rog kicks the ball away at every oppurtunity dont have the backline to do damage and the forwards are underpowered.

Cap will be 11or 12 i fancy Quins to win by 18 or 19 given current form

Saracens V Ulster shoudl be toughest game to predict.
Sarries grind teams down threw hard work and a very tough pack have some excellent backs Ashton and Goode but rely on grunt more than guile.
If Ulster can play from a full deck Muller back is essential but can see Ferris still being crocked hard to know where to play Pienaar.
Munster fecked up by not getting a home quarter id fancy them over anyone in fortress Ravenhill.
Think the bookies will fancy Sarries by 4 points but Ulstherrrr to sneak it by 2 points.

Clermont V Montpellier
Clermont have it all so much power pace and a rich sugar daddy.
They also play the game at a ferocious speed when needed and when on song no one can keep pace with them.
A formidable pack with the brilliant Parra at 9 man rarely misses a kick followed by the best center partnership in the cup in Fofana and Rougerie wings Nalaga and Sivivatu tear teams apart too.
Montpellier will be brave and never give up but it wont be enoug.
Clermont to make a marker and hammer them handicap will be -12-13.
Clermont to win by 18

Should be interesting. Clermont are rightly favourites but their record in knockout rugby leaves a lot to be desired. If they don't win it this year though they might as well give up. My two ante post bets of Ulster 25/1 and Saracens 18/1 are still in contention and I will have a semifinalist out of it. I layed Ulster at 6.5 on betfair after the away win in Northampton which was good timing because that was as short as they got. Saracens came in a few points after their wins in round 5 and 6 so it was nice laying them at 6.7. I'm still in a much better spot if Ulster win and I give them a genuine chance with that draw. I think the handicap will be close to scratch for Sarries/Ulster and can see Ulster coming through.


I think the Clermont/Montpellier match might be a lot closer than you expect. Two French teams going head to head in knockout rugby is a different ballgame and I would set the handicap at Clermont -7. I think Clermont will do it but it will be a dogfight

Toulon -11 sounds about right and they will beat it. Expect Leicester to cough up lots of penalties and they're half back partnership to come under lots of pressure. I will be looking at the odds for Ben Youngs to get carded

Bookies have been close to the money for all Munsters handicaps this season apart from the home match v Edinburgh when Munster scored 3 late tries. If you fancy Quims to win comfortably I think you will be pleasantly surprsised when the bookies set their caps. I would expect it to be about Harlequins -5/-6.
Anyway I won't be having any more bets on the HEC until the week of the 1/4 finals. Nothing in the outright winners market appeals to me as value.

Looking at the 6N markets I see some of the bookies have opened the book on Wales v Ireland. I would of had this down as close to scratch but mot of the firms are going Ireland +2/+3 and 11/10+ in outright. This handicap doesn't really interest me because usually when Ireland have beaten Wales in recent recent we have done so convincingly. 13/10 with Stan James looks a lot more attractive to me than +3 @10/11. There are a lot of doubts and uncertainties surrounding Wales from the temporary loss of Gatland to injury crisis in the second row, problems at outhalf, regions in crisis etc. Their record in the years after winning slams is pretty poor and I will be opposing them where possible.
You can lay them at about 6.0 on Betfair which I think is a good option as they will continue to drift.


As much as it pains me to say it I think England are the bet for this years 6N. They have a very strong set piece and pace in the backs. They also look like the most settled side and the win over NZ will boost their confidence no end. They were pretty unlucky not to win the grand slam last year given how they dominated Wales for most of that match. This was their only loss and I believe they're a better team now. 9/4 currently available from Boyle's and Stan James

[amberleaf]

how far back would people suggest when analysing past match reports,statistics,etc in rugby in order to predict future probabilitys accurately,was told that seven was enough,seems a small sample size to me.the reasoning he gave was that the advances in player/fitness/game management was such that going back further was a waste of time,not sure what to make out of it tbh.

in the 6n might do something in the winning margin markets based on the set handicap,seems to be getting very tight lately,might be the way to go

[Mickey Rosa]

Harlequins - 6 v Munster and Clermont -8 v Montpellier. Now that is value.

[Guest]

Harlequins - 6 v Munster and Clermont -8 v Montpellier. Now that is value.

Ya i think so i expect Cler esp will drift south of France in April will really suit here game.
Think Munster price is on reputation alone not being playing well this year and scraped through.
At least got the Saracens cap spot on rest was out a bit.

[conspicuous]

Ya i think so i expect Cler esp will drift south of France in April will really suit here game.
Think Munster price is on reputation alone not being playing well this year and scraped through.
At least got the Saracens cap spot on rest was out a bit.

No Clermont have their biggest edge on softer ground during the winter months. They are a big, physical team all over the park which means they will crush you on heavy ground but are not quite so effective on hard ground on a sunny afternoon. They will still be a formidable outfit but if a team is to get at them then it wil be by retaining posession and giving them a run around. Leinster did it very well in the second half in Bordeaux and were in control before giving away a stupid lineout penalty which nearly handed the game to the French. Clermont have struggled in Top 14 and European knockout competition with just one domestic title to show for all their talent. I don't think Montpellier are the team to fully exploit Clermont but the handicap is only a point out from my expected one

Don't be so shocked by Quins -6 v Munster either. This is cup rugby and Harlequins will be delighted to get off the pitch with a one point win. Nobody is playing for bonus points now so predicting massive winning margins at this stage is a sure way to the poor house in my experience. There are also other factors to consider in relation to this particular match. Firstly Munster will have serious players back in the shape of Paul O Connell and CJ Stander. Don't underestimate the effect these 2 players will have. If Paulie plays he will bring clear leadership to the Munster pack and we can expect a passionate display from the front 8 with a low error count. Munster have looked confused and toothless with Penney's gameplan but expect them to go out for the 1/4 final with a slightly more traditional Munster strategy incorporated into the kiwis philosophy.
Harlequins are a team on the rise but they are by no means the finsished article. I have watched them on numerous occasions this season both in Europe and in the AP. They are good at retaining posesion but they will butcher chances, give away penalties and make mistakes in defence, just as Munster will. They are very strong in key positions 7,8,9 and 10 but they're no world beaters yet. Saracens would be of a very similar standard to and Munster were scratch against them over 2 matches, losing by 6 away. The handicap looks reasonable to me

Toulon-8 is a couple of points lower than I expected it to be and I will probably be having a punt at this price. Toulon have been relentless this season at home and I expect nothing less than them grinding Leicester into submission. The English side no longer have the leadership in key positions or the physicality for a massive away upset like this would be

I expected Sarcens/Ulster to be closer to scratch or Saracens -1. While I can understand why some bookies are taking the -2/-3 line, I have to oppose the -4 @evens being offered by my old friends Bet365. This is free money backing Ulster+4 here as this will be a one score game so much of the time.Ulster @ 13/8 in match betting is highly tempting. I also expect Ulster to be much stronger than current form suggests come April with players returning from injury