RUGBY BETTING THREAD

[amberleaf]

time to wrap it up (before i lose the plot altogether)fwiw heres my bets for the weekend
(scale of 1-10)
pumas @ 7/4 2 point win (with a view to lay off at some stage)
Tim Visser for the first try scorer @ 7/1 1 point win
Straus for the first try scorer @ 28/1 1 point win
ulster -3 @ 10/11 3 point win
treviso/ulster ht/ft @ 6/1 1 point win
ire/arg over 38.5 total points @ 5/6 2 point win
Australia 1-7 at half time @ 23/10 1 point win

best of luck with your bets over the weekend

[shrapnel]

France -14 @evens v Samoa Bet365
France to win 2nd half -8 @11/10 on Ladbrokes is insanely good odds given the fact that Samoa put everything into the game in Cardiff a week ago and have 4 big players out as a result…probably happy enough mentally with the win in Cardiff and not expecting to win here so could be in holiday mode by the end of it.
Fofana anytime tryscorer @6/4 on Paddypower is worth a shot given his record added to the above reasoning.
1 note of caution..rain is forecast for this Sat night kickoff in Paris. If it is torrential, obv the spread becomes less attractive.

strange. all weather forecasts i've checked the last few days say Paris will be fine, no rain forecast. And kick off is an earlier one than usual 5pm GMT.

on a side note, definitely like the Aus-7 second half bet.

[conspicuous]

strange. all weather forecasts i've checked the last few days say Paris will be fine, no rain forecast. And kick off is an earlier one than usual 5pm GMT.

on a side note, definitely like the Aus-7 second half bet.

Weather will be fine in Paris according to my research, 9- 12 celsius and dry/cloudy. If the Aus/ Italy game is played out the way I expect it to that second half handicap of -7 will be smashed.
2 pt bet please with Betfred @ 10/11

Ive also been looking at the over/unders on tries for Ireland/Arg. These games rarely produce a feast of tries, ceertainly not at LR so
under 3.5 tries @ 5/6 with William Hill is a 1 pt bet for me

Im also increasing my stake on France[-14] with another 2 pt bet @ evens with Bet365. Thats probably enough exposure now for the weekend without touching England and Scotland matches

[conspicuous]

Treviso 10-10 Ulster at half time
Dan Carter out of tomorrow's match

[amberleaf]

15-10 at half time to Treviso try on the very last play of the half,carter looks a big loss for the minus hcp alright but still plenty of quality there.

[Emmet]

taken the -3, believe it should be -8 tbh.

6:05pm

boom - cough splutter - crossbar

Nick Williams with two 'inconclusive' efforts could've been a bigger win. Equally, Treviso kicker missed a sitter with 2mins left and were unlucky not to win!

[conspicuous]

15-10 at half time to Treviso try on the very last play of the half,carter looks a big loss for the minus hcp alright but still plenty of quality there.

Cruden is a quality understudy but Carter is the best in the world and at the top of his game. I'm not as confident as I was earlier in the week when I made the bet but theres no point stressing about it now. Handicap is back to 17 with a couple of bookies.

Ulster won by 1 point in Italy

[conspicuous]

boom - cough splutter - crossbar

Nick Williams with two 'inconclusive' efforts could've been a bigger win. Equally, Treviso kicker missed a sitter with 2mins left and were unlucky not to win!

Unlucky. Ulster missing too many leaders and talismen to be trusted to beat caps on the road at the moment. They're blessed to have 8 points from the last 2 games

[amberleaf]

yup lucky to get away from italy with both wins,both Treviso and Zebre beat the half time hcp along with italy last weekend.plenty of heart in fairness.

[Emmet]

Some good lolz on the rugby betting thread on boards today.

yes, wont be repeated.
.

Shouldn't have gone back in!

No to his site, be interested to see his tips since he seems like a fool.

...
Edinburgh to be opposed for the forseeable, tonights win should deflate next week's cap, whatever gets put up against them, jump on it

this makes no sense.

lads, post up on rabo thread in the other place re: referees and poor money in the rabo, i feel like ive had an epiphany, would appreciate any other input - argument is- stay well away as sh*t refs mean tougher bets. Sh*t refs because theres far less money to pay them

this makes no sense either.

edinburgh to be opposed for the forseeable.....- it's colloquial english, Emmet whats your problem?

and poorer refs in the Rabo because it's a poorer league and you get what you pay for.

I can possibly see the interpretation problem with your second issue, but I cant for the life of me see your problem with the first. PM me if you need me to explain further, I think everyone else got it

"Edinburgh to be opposed for the future"

What if the HC is + 60?

Or the odds on them being beaten is 1/100?

If you don't consider price then the idea of opposing or laying a bet is nonsense!

Why are you being a ridiculous pedant? It will never by +60. they'll get marked up because of this win, and theyre to be opposed for the forseeable future- they were sh*t in my opinion tonight. An I allowed to have that opinion?

The way you're going on is nonsense - go out and have a drink- maybe try get laid, you sound like you need it.

The way I am going on is nonsense? (What is the way I am going on btw?)

I posted a logical and rational thought process behind my tips last weekend that all came in.

I'm allowed question what you mean when you post in this thread surely? Or is this some sort of 'punter's pandora's box' that people are free from criticism in?

Quick bit of logic testing, what would you make the fair handicap for the Edinburgh game next week? If the handicap that you imagine it 'should' be is what the bookie's offer, do you still oppose Edinburgh?

Sorry Emmet, my waffle filter is broken and you're coming in all hazy. Go have a pick at someone else if you're bored - quick tip though, have a useful point before you get yourself bogged down.

re: my tips coming in

i missed this little line (that you had to squeeze in for some reason). Well done, your mammy must be very proud.

----

'Tipster' added to list of goons.

[shrapnel]

anyone know if France samoa is being shown on any channel? can't find it anywhere

Bets for me today

Argentina to win 1pt @ 2/1
france -14 2pts @ evens
Australia -7 in second half 2pts @evens

[The Situation]

Argies half time +3 gogogo

[amberleaf]

3 pointer on scotland - 10,in game @10/11,well worth a pop on 365

[conspicuous]

Australia

[conspicuous]

Well that was a disastrous weekend. I has big bets on Aus and France to beat the handicaps and both failed. It would have really capped the day off in style if Wales had sneaked in for a converted try at the end to deny me in that game too.

[amberleaf]

half time in the zebre v blues match in the pro 12,score is 7-5 to zebre.the stats dictate that blues should come out in top so going for a 2.5 point win on cardiff -1 with 365 @ 6/5

[amberleaf]

and after the weekends carnage just about broke even.
(scale of 1-10)
pumas @ 7/4 2 point win (with a view to lay off at some stage) i didn't so lost
Tim Visser for the first try scorer @ 7/1 1 point win lost
Straus for the first try scorer @ 28/1 1 point win lost
ulster -3 @ 10/11 3 point win lost
treviso/ulster ht/ft @ 6/1 1 point win win rt. 7 pts
ire/arg over 38.5 total points @ 5/6 2 point win win rt 3.67
Australia 1-7 at half time @ 23/10 1 point win lost

3 pointer on scotland - 10,in game @10/11,well worth a pop on 365

lost

half time in the zebre v blues match in the pro 12,score is 7-5 to zebre.the stats dictate that blues should come out in top so going for a 2.5 point win on cardiff -1 with 365 @ 6/5

win rt 5.5

total invested 16.5 with a return of 16.17 meh could be worse.

[amberleaf]

paddy has New Zealand -17 and Australia -3 for next weekend both are worth looking at but would have to wait for team news i would think.

[Guest]

paddy has New Zealand -17 and Australia -3 for next weekend both are worth looking at but would have to wait for team news i would think.

Well Wales coinfidence must be at an all time low.
They have suffered 3 bad defeats at home in a row with lots of walking wounded.
Bradley Davies is concussed should miss next week prop Aaron Davis is out with knee problems too.
Prop Paul James has gone back to his club as has James hook Jamie Roberts has a hip problem so things are looking bleak.

After watching Priestland kick two penaltys dead going for touch the last hes a terrible player.

Oz have lots of injuries themselves but have some really great young players like Hooper and this will be Nathan Sharpes last game dont underestimate the boost this will give them.

Oz have beaten them 7 times in a row some very close games there too think oz-3 looks good if it comes -2 anywhere id snap it up.

They look soft as hell up front serious lack of grunt in the front 5 and the rest of the team is devoid of coinfidence and after the stuffing France gave them oz have rallied well and will look to finish on a high here i think they will.

[amberleaf]

would think the line would go oz -4 or -5 if anything tbh at this stage,the autumn internationals are a disaster so far for the welsh,hard to see it changing.some very nice looking games in the pro 12 this weekend,top of the list for me being Scarlets/Ulster on sunday (4.00 rte/s4c) will be very interested in the team line ups and the prices available.kinda took the eye off the ball a little last weekend,looking back there was plenty of value to be got there.

[conspicuous]

Well Wales coinfidence must be at an all time low.
They have suffered 3 bad defeats at home in a row with lots of walking wounded.
Bradley Davies is concussed should miss next week prop Aaron Davis is out with knee problems too.
Prop Paul James has gone back to his club as has James hook Jamie Roberts has a hip problem so things are looking bleak.

After watching Priestland kick two penaltys dead going for touch the last hes a terrible player.

Oz have lots of injuries themselves but have some really great young players like Hooper and this will be Nathan Sharpes last game dont underestimate the boost this will give them.

Oz have beaten them 7 times in a row some very close games there too think oz-3 looks good if it comes -2 anywhere id snap it up.

They look soft as hell up front serious lack of grunt in the front 5 and the rest of the team is devoid of coinfidence and after the stuffing France gave them oz have rallied well and will look to finish on a high here i think they will.

They havn't rallied that well now in fairness, only scraping past Italy thanks to a missed kick at goal. You do pretent some valid points though, Wales currently are not the team to capitalise on a team like Australia that struggles in an attritional contest. Wales also have an appalling recent record against the Crims and I expect the latters dynamic backs to stretch the big Welsh backline. Wales also have a serious problem at outhalf with Biggar injured and Priestland gone to shit. If Australia were showing any sort of form or consistency this would be a no brainer max bet. Even with their issues the prices being offered on them represent excellent value

I've taken

Australia[-2] @10/11 with 888 [also available Blue sq] 2pt bet
Australia[-3] @evens with sportingbet 1pt bet

[amberleaf]

Treviso v Dragons in the pro 12 over the weekend,here's a little interesting statistic

treviso have played 5 home games so far,out of these they went in at half time leading on four occasions(v Ospreys,Leinster,Glasgow & Ulster)from these only ospreys were the only team they ended up beating after leading at half time,you should get about 6/1 on the flip-flop(treviso half time/dragons full time)could be a little value at the price.

Leinster v Zebre the half time hcp might be worth looking at,they seem to be steadily progressing as the season goes on in away matches,at least in the first 40(after which they tend to fall apart)

3rd November 2012 scarlets 22 13 zebre (ht 3-6)
26th October 2012 munster 29 3 zebre (ht 3-3)
28th September 2012 glasgow 22 19 zebre (ht 19-16)

before this they were well beaten in their other two away games,zebre + in the first half hcp,along with leinster - in the second half hcp,in game hcp at half time bets like these could be the way to go,dependent on team selection,forecast etc.
very small game samples i know,but worth keeping a eye on with the right staking strategy perhaps.

[Guest]

Was liking all blacks -15pts. But heard majority of squad being sick puking bug i think its a no bet game
Was looking forward to England getting a hiding probably still will.

[conspicuous]

Teams names Priestland still at 10 for Wales with Biggar on the bench. Australia should really be able to beat the handicap

Wales: Leigh Halfpenny; Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, Liam Williams; Rhys Priestland, Mike Phillips; Gethin Jenkins, Matthew Rees, Scott Andrews, Ian Evans, Luke Charteris, Aaron Shingler, Sam Warburton (capt), Toby Faletau.
Replacements: Ken Owens, Ryan Bevington, Samson Lee, Ryan Jones, Justin Tipuric, Tavis Knoyle, Dan Biggar, Scott Williams.
Australia: Berrick Barnes, Nick Cummins, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Ben Tapuai, Drew Mitchell, Kurtley Beale, Nick Phipps, Wycliff Palu, David Pocock, Scott Higginbotham, Nathan Sharpe (captain), Kane Douglas, Ben Alexander, Tatafu Polota Nau, Benn Robinson.
Replacements: Stephen Moore, James Slipper, Sekope Kepu, Dave Dennis, Michael Hooper, Brendan McKibbin, Mike Harris, Digby Ioane.

[amberleaf]

Was liking all blacks -15pts. But heard majority of squad being sick puking bug i think its a no bet game
Was looking forward to England getting a hiding probably still will.

reckon the news of the bug in the nz camp must have affected the line alright,-15 from -17 is a fairly big jump considering the team they named,while reading up noticed that carter and mccaw have more caps than the whole of the england team combined.would also think if this bug is to have an affect on their performance it would be more likely in the second half.the all blacks will go wide early if they think they have a advantage there and will be 100 miles per hour from the off,as for the english they have finished the stronger imo v aus & the boks.given the above perhaps the half time handicap of -7.5 @ evens is where i was thinking about putting my few sheckles on this,also couldn't help myself only to stick a tenner on tom youngs to score the first try @ 60/1 with pp,jeremy guscott was saying during the week that england hav'nt scored a try from a maul in years,surprize element went off in the noggan,throw in the 15 man maul effort from the leakie boys last weekend so on and so forth etc.

Teams names Priestland still at 10 for Wales with Biggar on the bench. Australia should really be able to beat the handicap

Wales: Leigh Halfpenny; Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, Liam Williams; Rhys Priestland, Mike Phillips; Gethin Jenkins, Matthew Rees, Scott Andrews, Ian Evans, Luke Charteris, Aaron Shingler, Sam Warburton (capt), Toby Faletau.
Replacements: Ken Owens, Ryan Bevington, Samson Lee, Ryan Jones, Justin Tipuric, Tavis Knoyle, Dan Biggar, Scott Williams.
Australia: Berrick Barnes, Nick Cummins, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Ben Tapuai, Drew Mitchell, Kurtley Beale, Nick Phipps, Wycliff Palu, David Pocock, Scott Higginbotham, Nathan Sharpe (captain), Kane Douglas, Ben Alexander, Tatafu Polota Nau, Benn Robinson.
Replacements: Stephen Moore, James Slipper, Sekope Kepu, Dave Dennis, Michael Hooper, Brendan McKibbin, Mike Harris, Digby Ioane.

ya looks a good bet alright very hard to side with the home side especially with pocock back as well.the last few games between the two were close enough,wales missing jones a lot during the ai.

[Emmet]

What do the Bookies know that we don't?

Treviso 7 point faves?

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rabodirect-pro-12/treviso-v-dragons/half-time-full-time

I'm taking a peep at Dragons to win. (9/4)
A bit of Treviso HT / Dragons FT too. ( 8/1)
And I'm having some of Dragons to beat the +7 (10/11) too.

balls, got in early to get some value and all the value is arriving now! Better prices available than i'm on.

[conspicuous]

Treviso v Dragons in the pro 12 over the weekend,here's a little interesting statistic

treviso have played 5 home games so far,out of these they went in at half time leading on four occasions(v Ospreys,Leinster,Glasgow & Ulster)from these only ospreys were the only team they ended up beating after leading at half time,you should get about 6/1 on the flip-flop(treviso half time/dragons full time)could be a little value at the price.

Leinster v Zebre the half time hcp might be worth looking at,they seem to be steadily progressing as the season goes on in away matches,at least in the first 40(after which they tend to fall apart)

3rd November 2012 scarlets 22 13 zebre (ht 3-6)
26th October 2012 munster 29 3 zebre (ht 3-3)
28th September 2012 glasgow 22 19 zebre (ht 19-16)

before this they were well beaten in their other two away games,zebre + in the first half hcp,along with leinster - in the second half hcp,in game hcp at half time bets like these could be the way to go,dependent on team selection,forecast etc.
very small game samples i know,but worth keeping a eye on with the right staking strategy perhaps.

Thats a very good post and shows how the bookies can be slow to correct their line at times. Earlier in the year they failed to adjust to Ulster who beat every handicap up until the Autumn Internationals when many of their players were away with Ireland. Ive been taking note of Zebre too and apart from the anomaly of the Glasgow game, most others have been relatively low scoring in the first half. Conversely Leinster have been slow to get started in many of theirs so if this game is played to form we should see a sluggish first half with Leinster pulling away in the second. The second half handicap is Leinster[-15] which I have seen beaten more times at the RDS than pints of Hino

I'm going with the following bet

Second half handicap Leinster[-15] @ 6/5 with Ladbrokes 1 pt bet
Highest scoring half = Second half @ 5/6 with Ladbrokes 1 pt bet
Half Time handicap Zebre [+14] @ evens with Stan James 1 pt bet


Good luck to all over the weekend

[conspicuous]

What do the Bookies know that we don't?

Treviso 7 point faves?

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rabodirect-pro-12/treviso-v-dragons/half-time-full-time

I'm taking a peep at Dragons to win. (9/4)
A bit of Treviso HT / Dragons FT too. ( 8/1)
And I'm having some of Dragons to beat the +7 (10/11) too.

balls, got in early to get some value and all the value is arriving now! Better prices available than i'm on.

Dragons are best price of +8 now with match betting 5/2 with PP. I don't see any great value either way to be honest. Treviso are a solid side at home and will have all their internationals back. They dont really put many sides away though so while I'd fancy them to beat a fairly inept Dragons side I'm not tempted to back them to beat the handicap. I much prefer this bet which makes far more sense than outright at 4/11 or -7 @ 10/11

Treviso to win by 1-12 pts @ 17/10 with William Hill 1 pt bet

[Guest]

What do the Bookies know that we don't?

Treviso 7 point faves?

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rabodirect-pro-12/treviso-v-dragons/half-time-full-time

I'm taking a peep at Dragons to win. (9/4)
A bit of Treviso HT / Dragons FT too. ( 8/1)
And I'm having some of Dragons to beat the +7 (10/11) too.

balls, got in early to get some value and all the value is arriving now! Better prices available than i'm on.

Im guessing because the Dragons are a god awful team.i
They have a small budget comstantly lose there best players even IF THEY HAVE lyDIATE AD fALEATAU in the backrow injured and out on international duty.

[amberleaf]

1 point win on Zebre + 14@1/1 (sj)hth
5.5 point win on ulster -2 @ (sj)
1 point win on england + 7 points @ 1/1second half hcp (lad)
tenner on tom youngs fts @ 60/1 (pp)
my only bets so far

good luck with your bets folks

[Guest]

Connacht V Edinburgh today at 5 in the sportSground.

Shockingly weather is promised dry but cold normally december games in Galway howling gales and driving rain.

Edinburgh weclome back 5 internationals including the flying Dytchman Tim Visser who was burnt by Tongan and Connacht wing Vainakolo last week who is on the bench.

Having went down to the Dragons 14-3 last week i forecast more pain today and here is why.

In the pack Brett Wilkinson returns his form has been very poor he was a possible irish squad member a couple of seasons ago but Dennis Buckley is seen as first choice Nathan White is out injured and i have heard Jason Harris wrights throwing is very poor.

Also Mike Mccarthy and Michael Swift conns first choice second rows both injured so very light in the second row.

The backrow is a mess too missing captain John Muldoon and best ball carrier George Naopu serious lack of power with two opensides and a young no 8.
Luckily powerhouse Netani Talei is injured for edinburgh.

Edinburgh are coming into the game after a victory over the Ospreys last week by 10 points and are having a poor season last years losing heineken semi finalists but will have enough to win this today by 6 or 7 points

Edinburgh +1 pt across the board looks value to me can see Visser getting a couple of tries the mans a try machine.

[Guest]

Visser on the mark after after 5mins could be a long long day.

7-7 just keep giving ball to VISSER
17-16 too Edin on 60min won 3 or 4 scrum penos and knocking on in great positions should have ame wrapped up by now.
Connacht had two good chances to win the game in last couple of mins but didnt
Edinburgh 24 - connacht 23
from reading twitter updates Edinburgh should have had it wrapped up and went 24-16 ahead
but cant beat a sweat.

[Emmet]

Im guessing because the Dragons are a god awful team.i
They have a small budget comstantly lose there best players even IF THEY HAVE lyDIATE AD fALEATAU in the backrow injured and out on international duty.

Aye, forgot Wales were playing today actually!

Bad mistake on my part

[Guest]

Aye, forgot Wales were playing today actually!

Bad mistake on my part

Ya like at home dragons are a tough team at home but like conn if missing 2 3 players are severely weakened.

[Guest]

They havn't rallied that well now in fairness, only scraping past Italy thanks to a missed kick at goal. You do pretent some valid points though, Wales currently are not the team to capitalise on a team like Australia that struggles in an attritional contest. Wales also have an appalling recent record against the Crims and I expect the latters dynamic backs to stretch the big Welsh backline. Wales also have a serious problem at outhalf with Biggar injured and Priestland gone to shit. If Australia were showing any sort of form or consistency this would be a no brainer max bet. Even with their issues the prices being offered on them represent excellent value

I've taken

Australia[-2] @10/11 with 888 [also available Blue sq] 2pt bet
Australia[-3] @evens with sportingbet 1pt bet

Last thing you wanted was Nathan Sharpe taking that touchline conversion
Hes no john eales off the boot but wasent the worst effort.

[conspicuous]

Last thing you wanted was Nathan Sharpe taking that touchline conversion
Hes no john eales off the boot but wasent the worst effort.

It was that sort of day/weekend for me. I backed NZ 1-12 after changing my mind from England +17. I backed two unders totals in the AP last night and lost both in the last few minutes. Lost more on Leinster tonight. with 2 losing bets out of 3. Backed Treviso 1-12 and they win by 19. Worst weekend in a while. Only good news was I doubled my free 30 euro spread bet by backing England, yippy dippy doo.

[Guest]

It was that sort of day/weekend for me. I backed NZ 1-12 after changing my mind from England +17. I backed two unders totals in the AP last night and lost both in the last few minutes. Lost more on Leinster tonight. with 2 losing bets out of 3. Backed Treviso 1-12 and they win by 19. Worst weekend in a while. Only good news was I doubled my free 30 euro spread bet by backing England, yippy dippy doo.

I find myself sticking to straight handicaps is best well best for me

Or else use alt hcps like two 2/5 on shots to give you nearly evens.

Used be couldnt watch a match without punting now anytime i bet do as much research as possible other forums club websites weather forecasts.

Nz match was a freak they were obv weak as kittens after the puking and two bob bits midweek.

Looking forward to heineken cup have a great bet imo will put up thursday.
5$ and a pm can get it weds evening

[conspicuous]

I find myself sticking to straight handicaps is best well best for me

Or else use alt hcps like two 2/5 on shots to give you nearly evens.

Used be couldnt watch a match without punting now anytime i bet do as much research as possible other forums club websites weather forecasts.

Nz match was a freak they were obv weak as kittens after the puking and two bob bits midweek.

Looking forward to heineken cup have a great bet imo will put up thursday.
5$ and a pm can get it weds evening

Ye puppy I'm usually the same myself normally only bet on straight handicaps rather than bands like 1-12. Greed got the better of me I guees and I couldn't see England actually winning I jsut thought they would keep the score low. With Treviso I was confident they would win but they rarely beat anyone by more than 12 so I thought that bet made sense. They're mugs bets though when you consider how little margin of error you have on wither side for a bloody 7/4 shot, never again.

Anyway moving on to tomorrow I see Ulster are available -2 @ 10/11 with Stan James. The teams show Scarlets are without their internationals why Ulster have a very strong side out. I would be more confident with Pienaar directing operations at a tricky away venue and Henry competing at the breakdown but I still think Ulster should win here with a little to spare. What do you think/

[Guest]

Form: Scarlets have won their last four games in the RaboDirect PRO12, whilst their only defeat in the tournament at Parc y Scarlets in their last 13 fixtures was 16-23 to Ospreys on 21 September. No Irish province has won at the stadium since Leinster were the visitors on 24 September 2011. Ulster's superb unblemished start to the 2012/13 campaign continues apace with eleven straight wins in all competitions. The Ulstermen are attempting to complete a clean sweep of victories away from home to the Welsh regions this season. The last three matches between the two sides have all been won by the home side on the day, whilst Ulster's only win in Llanelli came on 18 February 2011.
Stolen obv from p r

Id prefer Henry or big Nick starting but the forwards bench is strong with Best Tuohy and Court to some on.
Muller back is huge and Afoa is a beast too.
Love the 9-13 all youngish and home grown.

lookin at the Scarlets pack John Edwards and Phil John only names i recognise usually where they fall short.
Ulster have good squad depth and have players like Gilroy Marshall at 12 bang in form if i was having a bet i wont be id back them to beat 2 points ulster ftw.

For the neutral should be an entertaining high match both play attacking running rugby.
Should be highs coring.

[amberleaf]

sick as a dog all weekend with that bug thats doing the rounds,have a decent few quid on ulster to beat the hcp,think they have a great chance with the bench looking very strong.Scarlets missing a few as well.

[Guest]

Lads Ulster in running looking well destroying scarletts scrum wet so lots of scrums pile in now.

[amberleaf]

1 point win on Zebre + 14@1/1 (sj)hth lost
5.5 point win on ulster -2 @ (sj) win
1 point win on england + 7 points @ 1/1second half hcp (lad) win
tenner on tom youngs fts @ 60/1 (pp)
my only bets so far

good luck with your bets folks

two from 3 over the weekend,not bad all things considered.a few Interesting games next weekend for the hc.looking forward to it.

[amberleaf]

patrick has the hc matches for the irish teams priced up for next weekend

connacht - 6 v Biarritz
Northampton-2 v ulster
munster -4 v Saracens
Clermont Auvergne -6 v Leinster

at first glance to me munster -4 looks beatable,they have to win this to have any chance of progressing,not that motivation is a problem, played quite well last weekend and a big Promational drive with rail/match tickets from cork (as well as others) should have a full house on the night

ulster are winning but are not playing well,they could have and should have put scarletts away last weekend,they didn't. a little fearful that the wheels could come off over the next month with the next four games(saints away and at home,leinster home & munster away)

connacht who knows,plenty of heart,a gale force wind and a few inches of rain might help

leinster + 6,clermont look strong,36 player pool with 28 internationals tells the story with them.they have this in the sights for a while i would think,but then again if any team can turn them over its leinster,not too sure if they can tbh.

[Emmet]

I'd be of the opinion that we are going to have to do an awful lot right and get lucky in order to beat that +6 spread. (Leinster)

Very wary of this game. Clermont unbeaten at home in > 50 games!

[bohsman]

Meh, misread that I think, Clermont worth backing with the HC?

[conspicuous]

two from 3 over the weekend,not bad all things considered.a few Interesting games next weekend for the hc.looking forward to it.

I had
Australia[-2] @10/11 with 888 [also available Blue sq] 2pt bet
Australia[-3] @evens with sportingbet 1pt bet
Sale v Northampton total points under 40.5 @ 10/11 with Bet365 2 point bet
Harlequins v Worcester total points under 40.5 @ 10/11 with Bet 365 2 point bet
New Zealand to win by [1-12] @ 9/4 with Boyles 1 point bet
Second half handicap Leinster[-15] @ 6/5 with Ladbrokes 1 pt bet
Highest scoring half = Second half @ 5/6 with Ladbrokes 1 pt bet
Half Time handicap Zebre [+14] @ evens with Stan James 1 pt bet
Ulster [-2] @ 10/11 with Stan James 5 pt bet

Disastrous Friday and Saturday for me with plenty of bad beat stories Ulster recovered me a big chunk on Sunday but it was still a bad weekend. Looking ahead to this weekend the standouts for me are

Clermont[-6] v Leinster
Connacht v Biarritz [-6]

I probably wont back against Leinster as I don't like getting involved too much with teams I support but I'm a little surprised that Clermont aren't shorter. I expected a handicap of 8 or 9 points and it is very hard to see Leinster getting into bonus point territory. Clermont are focussed on winning the HEC cup this year and rested many front liners last weekend in preparation for this game. Leinsters form has been very patchy this season and are still without BOD and Kearney. The Stade Michelin is one of the hardest places in European rugby to get a result with the hosts undefeated there since 2009

Connacht are ravaged by injuries and may be too light to put up a strong defence at home to Biarritz this weekend. They will be missing serious beef and grunt with Swift, Gorgeous George and Muldoon all definetely out with White, Reyneke and McCarthy highly doubtful. Biarritz welcome back Imanol Horinorduquay to join a very strong pack with Yachvilli pulling the strings behind it. I can't see anything but a long evening for the westerners against French opposition who usually travel well and take European competition seriously. I'll wait for teams and weather before placing my bets but I'd imagine a big bet on the Basques at this stage

[Emmet]

yeah above sums it up. Can't bet against my own side, and can't particularly tip the other bet either. Separating ye olde head and heart for this one is tricky.

re:Connacht. 21 contracted players were unavailable to train on Monday. Considering they have at max 45 contracts (inc academy) that is a ridiculously harsh number of injuries.

[amberleaf]

forecast for galway is rain tomorrow and showers on friday with slight wind overall not too bad,Clermont/Biarritz win double pays just over 4/5 which looks fairly safe.no betting up for Glasgow/Castres could be worth a look when the line ups are named.only bet so far is the clermont(2/5)/biarritz(1/3) double for 2.5 points.

[V for Vendetta]

yeah above sums it up. Can't bet against my own side, and can't particularly tip the other bet either. Separating ye olde head and heart for this one is tricky.

re:Connacht. 21 contracted players were unavailable to train on Monday. Considering they have at max 45 contracts (inc academy) that is a ridiculously harsh number of injuries.

I believe.

Sexton to deliver and SOB to wreak havoc like he hasn't done in 9 months. The guy needed the break.

Front row will be fine, second rows to survive, back row will be a slight edge. Half backs to deliver in spades. Fingers crossed for the centres.

It's our old pal Nige reffing it isn't it?

[Guest]

I believe.

Sexton to deliver and SOB to wreak havoc like he hasn't done in 9 months. The guy needed the break.

Front row will be fine, second rows to survive, back row will be a slight edge. Half backs to deliver in spades. Fingers crossed for the centres.

It's our old pal Nige reffing it isn't it?

O briens rampaging runs have been badly missed and i hope he has not been brought back to early.
A worry would the second row for me.
Cullen looks shagged now and letting Hines go was criminal hell be probably starting on sunday.
Dont think there is an advantage in back row either does he play Jennings or Mcloughlin who has been poor this year?
Its definite advantage Clermont with key men out Kearney O driscoll and leinsters poor form but i wouldnt bet against them.
Alosing bonus point be a good result.

[bohsman]

Biarritz just went -7 on B365, would say -6 wont last too long with the rest.

[conspicuous]

Biarritz just went -7 on B365, would say -6 wont last too long with the rest.

Ye I saw that earlier and got on Biarritz straight away as I expect the others to follow suit. used 888 to clear a bonus but most bookies were still -6 when I made the bet

Biarritz[-6] @ 10/11 with 888 4 pt bet


Meanwhile Ulster and Northampton have both named their teams for Friday night's encounter at Franklin Gardens. Ulster's form has been very patchy in the absence of their internationals but they welcome back key men like Pienaar, Jackson, Bowe and Henry for this clash. However its in the tight 5 that my concerns for Ulster lie. Their set piece is an asset but at the moment Afoa looks like hes struggling with injury or fatigue, Best and Muller are just back from injury and Tuohy is desperately out of form. They have had major problems at the scrum, lineout and breakdown at different stages over the last few weeks. Furthermore they don't have a replacement tight head on the bench or a second row so Henderson will have to move if there's a problem there. I have no doubt that Northampton will target the Ulster scrum and if they get an edge here and Best is struggling with his darts then they could struggle to get out of their own half for long periods at an away venue!
I'm also a little disappointed in Anscombe's conservative selection for this match. Ulster's back division is of a different class to its counterparts but I think he should have gone for Luke Marshall at 12 ahead of Paddy Jackson. Jackson is at the stage of his career where form starts to deteriorate rapidly while Marshall is on the crest of a wave. Yes I so understad the "experience" argument but I don't think it applies when one player's form is far superior to another's.
Despite my criticism's of Ulster its certainly not all doom and gloom. They have ball carriers in Henderson and Wilson, [and Tuohy and Afoa when on form] gamechangers in Pienaar and Payne and clinical finishers at this level in Bowe and Trimble. These will all be big players at the return clash at Ravenhill which will be a totally different game. Ulster will come on a lot for this game which is their first of real intensity all season. For this one I expect Northampton to get at Ulster enough to win by less than 7 points and give Ulster a losing bonus point. I've gone with the following bet

Northampton[-1] v Ulster @ 10/11 with Boyles 3pt bet

[Guest]

Lads Biarritz shortened across the board -5pts EVENS now at Stan James.

They have good backs too besides bruising forwards Bosch argie very good have a BBW too
Big black winger Aled Brew scored lots of trys v connacht when playing for dragons.
They have a godawful away record but cant understand why they are shortening?

[amberleaf]

was just about to post the same,the -5 @ 5/6 is available with the indo's as well.

forecast for galway looks alright

Friday will be a cold bright day with sunny spells. There will be scattered showers during the morning but these will largely die out during the afternoon. Highs of 7 to 9 Celsius in moderate to fresh northwest winds, easing through the afternoon.


gone for a three pointer @ 5/6

[conspicuous]

Lads Biarritz shortened across the board -5pts EVENS now at Stan James.

They have good backs too besides bruising forwards Bosch argie very good have a BBW too
Big black winger Aled Brew scored lots of trys v connacht when playing for dragons.
They have a godawful away record but cant understand why they are shortening?

There may have been a mistake earlier but the evens with Stan James is now Connacht [+5] while Biarritz are -5 @ 5/6. I was wondering what you meant by BBW thinking you were refering to Big Beautiful Women As for the BBW youre talking about, he has serious pace. Here's a clip of him scoring the try of RWC 07, leaving Habana for dead who is no slow coach wither it might be said

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqWHFnwdtVU

When you've composed yourself after looking at that here's a few more BBWs to get you excited

SPOILER

http://www.uproxx.com/tv/2012/06/eye...tition/#page/1

SPOILER

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...oser-big-bird/

SPOILER

http://www.rferl.org/section/summer-...2012/2551.html

SPOILER

http://www.flickr.com/photos/horribleworld/3967485123/

And of course, the one youve all been waiting for !

SPOILER

http://i26.photobucket.com/albums/c1...llingsanta.jpg

SPOILER

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LFKtk-bOJQ...y+Harney+5.jpg

[amberleaf]

just four bets so far

clermont(2/5)/biarritz(1/3) win double for 2.5 points.
Biarritz- 5 @ 5/6 for 3 points
quinns - 8 second half hcp @ 10/11 for a 2 pointer
castres to beat glasgow @ 6/5 2 point win

[Guest]

Was doing some review got banned last night im back baby

Toulouse my fav team had some great teams and players through the years are gonna smash the Ospreys.
Weather promised cold and wet wont matter Ospreys missing three props and there first choice second rows
They have 3 heineken debutants too what a baptism of fire 21 stone Census Johnston had a fine autumn for Samoa and with an excellent prop like Poux on the bench gonna be a long day

Obv the backline is not to shabby either with irish curse Clerc in fine form for France and the return of lamb chop loving Medard.

Foutalii ospreys scrum half is excellent but will surely struggle for ball the -13 on ladbrokes looks good to me anything but a comprehensive 5 pointer will leave me scratching me head.

[Emmet]

Clermont -5 with bwin.

Wont last long.

Leinster squad looking a bit shaky in some place.

ugh

ha, already gone

[conspicuous]

Was doing some review got banned last night im back baby

Toulouse my fav team had some great teams and players through the years are gonna smash the Ospreys.
Weather promised cold and wet wont matter Ospreys missing three props and there first choice second rows
They have 3 heineken debutants too what a baptism of fire 21 stone Census Johnston had a fine autumn for Samoa and with an excellent prop like Poux on the bench gonna be a long day

Obv the backline is not to shabby either with irish curse Clerc in fine form for France and the return of lamb chop loving Medard.

Foutalii ospreys scrum half is excellent but will surely struggle for ball the -13 on ladbrokes looks good to me anything but a comprehensive 5 pointer will leave me scratching me head.

Toulouse will win this comfortably and exert great dominance at the scrum but my only concern is their tendancy to lose interest when they have the match wrapped up. I would punt on -13 and -14 at a lower stake but any higher and its a marginal call for me because its outside the 2 converted try comfort zone. Fair play to you for getting them at -13 the best I can see at the moment is -14 on bwin. I think I'll take it now as it prob wont improve

Welcome back btw

[Raoul Duke III]

Clermont -5 with bwin.

Wont last long.

Leinster squad looking a bit shaky in some place.

ugh

ha, already gone

Believe. I will have the sniper rifle handy in the stands in case of emergency.