RUGBY BETTING THREAD

[KevIRL]

Have added to my portfolio







Lines are changing btw

Some good lolz on the rugby betting thread on boards today.

[amberleaf]

here's a good one i heard today,24 teams in the heineken cup,5 are coached by former irish internationals. name them and the teams(no googleing now)i got 4 quickly enough had to go looking for the 5th tbh

[amberleaf]

Take Italy +15 in first half @ 10/11 http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...-time-handicap (Skybet)

Take NZ -15 in the second half @ 10/11 http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...-half-handicap (betfred)

Take 2nd half @ 4/5 http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...t-scoring-half (Skybet)

profit

taly: Andrea Masi, Giovambattista Venditti, Tommaso Benvenuti, Alberto Sgarbi, Mirco Bergamasco, Luciano Orquera, Edoardo Gori; Sergio Parisse (captain), Simone Favaro, Alessandro Zanni, Francesco Minto, Antonio Pavanello, Martin Castrogiovanni, Leonardo Ghiraldini, Andrea Lo Cicero. Reserves: Davide Giazzon, Alberto De Marchi, Lorenzo Cittadini, Quintin Geldenhuys, Mauro Bergamasco, Robert Barbieri, Tobias Botes, Luke McLean.



New Zealand: Beauden Barrett, Hosea Gear, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Julian Savea, Aaron Cruden, Aaron Smith; Kieran Read (captain), Sam Cane, Liam Messam, Brodie Retallick, Ali Williams, Charlie Faumuina, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock. Reserves: Dane Coles, Wyatt Crockett, Ben Franks, Samuel Whitelock, Victor Vito, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Daniel Carter, Cory Jane.

good little preview below as well
Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/Preview-All-B...#ixzz2CK3ZQ1Jw

[Emmet]

Some good lolz on the rugby betting thread on boards today.

yes, wont be repeated.

That guy runs a tipping site, with some pretty decent tips.

How bizarre that he completely missed the logic process involved.

ah well, I should probably not be double-agenting anyway.

[amberleaf]

Ireland v Figi 17 November 5.30 (RTE)

Ireland XV: 15 Denis Hurley, 14 Fergus McFadden, 13 Darren Cave, 12 Luke Marshall, 11 Craig Gilroy, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip (capt), 7 John Muldoon, 6 Iain Henderson, 5 Dan Tuohy, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Sean Cronin, 1 David Kilcoyne.
Replacements: 16 Richardt Strauss, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Michael Bent, 19 Donnacha Ryan, 20 Chris Henry, 21 Paul Marshall, 22 Jonathan Sexton, 23 Simon Zebo.

Fiji: 15 Metuisela Talebula, 14 Simeli Koniferedi, 13 Vereniki Govena, 12 Josh Matavesi, 11 Watisoni Votu, 10 Jonetani Ralulu, 9 Nikola Matawalu, 8 Nemani Nagusa, 7 Malakai Ravulo, 6 Iliesa Ratuva, 5 Api Naikatini, 4 Leone Nakarawa, 3 Deacon Manu, 2 Viliame Veikoso, 1 Jerry Yanuyanutawa.
Replacements: 16 Tuapati Talemaitoga, 17 Manasa Saulo, 18 Setefano Somoca, 19 Apisalome Ratuniyarawa, 20 Jovili Domolailai, 21 Kelemedi Bola, 22 Saula Radidi, 23 Timoci Matanavou.

hcp betting ireland -22/23 @ 10/11

a lot of debate around mike ross on the forums as to why he's starting with the puma's next weekend in mind,but i would think bent will see a fair bit.not too much to go on in regards form from figi,but they did put up a decent first 20 min v a strong enough england side last weekend before imploding and would think they'll only improve with that game under their belts.really like the ireland team tbh,plenty of go forward there should beat them well but imo could take a little time to gel perhaps but wont be complacent.from a betting point of view the handicap could well be beaten but given the first 1/4 of figi v england and more importantly the irish bench,think the highest scoring half being the second half @ 5/6 with ladbrokes or the second half handicap of ireland -11 betfred (-13 ladbrokes)could be the way to go here

[Keane]

yes, wont be repeated.

That guy runs a tipping site, with some pretty decent tips.

How bizarre that he completely missed the logic process involved.

ah well, I should probably not be double-agenting anyway.

Link?

[Emmet]

to his site? Or to the post?

Thought you lol'd at his reasoning, or is someone pretending to be you over there?

[Keane]

to his site? Or to the post?

Thought you lol'd at his reasoning, or is someone pretending to be you over there?

No to his site, be interested to see his tips since he seems like a fool.

[Emmet]

http://dropkickrugby.com/

[amberleaf]

total points on the Scotland v South Africa in drawn at 40.5 which for me is a walk away-no bet.i've enough on at this stage with france/wales/england treble @ 5/4 for handy bet,a yeehaa hail mary punt on Strauss first tryscorer for pocket money and hopefully a very good payday on england -6 with a few doubles and trebles running into this.best of luck with your bets lads

[conspicuous]

Ok Ive done all my punting for the weekend no turning back now

I took Wales [-9] @ evens on Wednesday from sportingbet [2pts]. Its not available anymore but you can still get -9 @ 10/11 from 888 and Blue square. The money seems to be coming for Wales with Ladbrokes only offering -12 now @ 10/11

I also backed Italy with Blue square to win the first half v NZ [+15]. I expect a strong opening from Italy and NZ may take some time to get into gear. 1pt bet

I gave my reasons for backing Scotland earlier in the thread. Best price BetVictor +11@ 10/11 1pt bet

After long consideration Ive decicided to punt on France [-9] with Bolyles @ 10/11. You can never be sure what to expect exactly with the French but I have enough confidence now in an outstanding backrow and a mature Freddie to endsure a certain level of performance. Argentina will miss Hernandez and may be more concerned about Dublin next week. This is a value bet more than a strong conviction in Les Bleus
.5 pt bet

Good Luck

[conspicuous]

here's a good one i heard today,24 teams in the heineken cup,5 are coached by former irish internationals. name them and the teams(no googleing now)i got 4 quickly enough had to go looking for the 5th tbh

Elwood Connacht
McCall Sarries
Bradley Edinburgh
OShea Quins
Easterby Scarlets

[amberleaf]

McCall was the one that caught me out a little,good start for the weekend with wales going down.

[KevIRL]

Wales losing that drags them into the scrap for a top 8 ranking place, good news for Ireland really. But yet again all the more baffling that the IRFU didnt opt for a full international v Fiji, even the small few ranking points to be gained could be crucial

[amberleaf]

think only full internationals can be played in the aviva,not sure why its being played in limerick.

[KevIRL]

IRFU could so much end up regretting not having the Fiji game as a full international. It could end up really close after tonights result

SA beating Scot by >15
Fra beating Arg by 1-15
Arg beating Ire by 1-15
Scot beating Ton by >15
NZ beating Wal by >15
Wal beating Aus by 1-15

Not at all impossible

Would leave the rankings at Dec 3rd as

6. Argentina 81.22302
7. Wales 80.238115
8. Samoa 78.78615
9. Ireland 77.83278
10. Scotland 77.75994

Any win against Fiji would have us above Samoa in his scenario

[Emmet]

No to his site, be interested to see his tips since he seems like a fool.

agreed

Someone told me midweek that the reason the Fiji game is not a ranking international, is because Aviva bought the rights to all of the full internationals and therefore this game, not being in the Aviva, therefore doesnt qualify.

So essentially, if I understand it right, an insurance company is deciding IRB fixture importance now. No word of a lie (once this proves true), im moving my insurance at the end of the month. It's the only way I can protest.

[amberleaf]

why was it moved in the first place,...didn't think they would sell the tickets or what.price wise the tickets for today are cheap as chips and a good crowd is expected,some sort of contractual arrangement perhaps between the two


edit;hmmm Interesting interview by Gert Smal from last Wednesdays indo

http://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/scots-will-struggle-to-knock-ireland-out-of-elite-group-smal-3293750.html

[Keane]

Pretty sure the reason was they thought the Aviva would be deserted.

[amberleaf]

total points on the Scotland v South Africa in drawn at 40.5 which for me is a walk away-no bet.i've enough on at this stage with france/wales/england treble @ 5/4 for handy bet,a yeehaa hail mary punt on Strauss first tryscorer for pocket money and hopefully a very good payday on england -6 with a few doubles and trebles running into this.best of luck with your bets lads

BOOOOOMMMM LOL

[Guest]

BOOOOOMMMM LOL

Wp hes a smashing player.

[Guest]

Didnt have a bet at all saw new zealand pulled handicap outta the bag 2 late ones to win by 32.
Fair play on Emmets half time shout oz playing good stuff at moment
going for a small different double ireland -19pts win 2/5
And a yellow card in Argentina V France will be a proper battle @8/13

[Keane]

WP Emmet.

[amberleaf]

Didnt have a bet at all saw new zealand pulled handicap outta the bag 2 late ones to win by 32.
Fair play on Emmets half time shout oz playing good stuff at moment
going for a small different double ireland -19pts win 2/5
And a yellow card in Argentina V France will be a proper battle @8/13

yup called the ita/nz game bang on in fairness,landed a handy touch with Strauss,was thinking at the time he might tack on to the end of a maul from a line out,so got lucky there. england went south,managed to lay off about half in play so not too bad over all.just a small pop in the highest scoring half,second half @ 4/5 with pp in ire/figi.as posted above think they will keep it tight before expanding out and hopefully the ulster lads will do their stuff later rather than sooner

[amberleaf]

just had a look at the teams for the zebre v ulster in the pro 12 today,has a fairly unfamiliar look to them with a lot of new combinations to factor in due mainly to the internationals the total points market here is 42.5 and looks a little high imo,think the unders are worth a bet @ 10/11

http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/matchcentre/2648.php?section=lineups&fixid=173602

[Emmet]

Take Italy +15 in first half @ 10/11 http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...-time-handicap (Skybet)

Take NZ -15 in the second half @ 10/11 http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...-half-handicap (betfred)

Take 2nd half @ 4/5 http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...t-scoring-half (Skybet)

profit

[NewApproach]

Great shouts yesterday Emmet.

Just to echo what a few others have said, I really enjoy reading this thread so guys please don't think you are talking to yourselves! Perhaps I should contribute a bit but I wouldn't have the knowledge really...

[conspicuous]

Well 2 winning and 2 losing bets but I came out of the weekend as a 1.5 pt loser as my biggest punt was on Wales[-9] on Friday night. In hindsight it was an ill judged gamble given as I didn't have enough information on either teams to make a prediction on how the game would play out. I gambled on fresh faces on the Welsh side raising the performance level sufficiently and it didnt happen. Samoa were much more cohesive than I thought they would be too.
Im happy enough with my bet on Scotland[+11] even they it was another loser. They dominated the last 30 minutes and really should have got within the handicap.
Thanks Emmet for your shouts on the NZ/Italy match. Italy ht handicaps are a serious cash cow. On to next week !

[amberleaf]

5 bets in total with just the one winning,ulster yesterday played utter rubbish and were very lucky to get the win,gifting zebre 3 tries in the process including one direct from a 22 drop outthe game ended 25-27,zebre had scored just 84 points in seven games before this one and then score 25 against the unbeaten ulster just shows how poor they were,they're staying in italy for the week as they're playing Treviso on friday night,and should have a few players back,might be worth a look at.

edit; in my wisdom i've just stuck the weekends profit on france to win the grand slam @ 8/1 with sky bet think i'll be able to lay off(if needs be)at a later date.also notice that Argentina are as big as 15/8 and 7/4 on bf (v ireland) for small money,think this will start at a much shorter price.

[Guest]

Paddypower prices are up for next weekend very important one for ireland.

Our win over a disinterested Fiji masks nothing and cant see much difference being made to our selection.
Ireland V Argentina argies +5pts @ 10/11 looks good.
We got a week rest for some players but for some reason the argies hate us and will really be up for this game.
They didnt disgrace themselves in the nations besides a heavy defeat in opener in south africa and away to all blacks.

Ireland in dissaray and coinfidence low with a manager who seems clueless how to use his resources to the max gonna be a massive slugfest.
I think we will lose a slugfest and our backs dont seem to be creating anything.

England South Africa scr England looked poor at weekend questions have to be asked about decision making. Losing by 6pts turning down simple 3 pointers when they had no massive advantage in the scrums then not converting stupid.
Saffers not playing great but have two wins under the belt and England played so poor sat id fancy Saffers by 3 4 points.

Wales V New Zealand N z -17pts here looks like the bet of the week early doors well defo lengthen to 21 22 come kick off.

Leaderless cant score trys getting mashed physically Wales got battered by Samoa Hibbard went off shoulder injury and Dan Biggar too.

Missing first choice locks Wyn Jones and Ian evans blindside Lydiate tighthead Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins out of form and lacking game time they look severly short of grunt and muscle. Also Warburton playing poorly too there gonna get smashed.

Should be a first choice all black team with Mccaw back with Messam and Read,
Dan god Carter will be back and the rest of the backline are going to bring pain to the leek eaters.
The majority of first team all blacks had last week off looking at Rome sights whilst Wales were getting pulverised by hugely impressive Samoa its promised sunny in Cardiff on Saturday.
A team low on coinfidence missing key men and unable to score tries last thing you need is a rampant all black team coming to play you on a fine day.
No way this price will last get on today or if your dole is tommorow wait till then
Nz by 27 28

Shrap might do a French preview

[kpnuts]

NZ -16 on b365, mick. I've just launched for max bet!

[shrapnel]

PSA has called in 4 new players in the squad ahead of saturday due to potential and fairly minor injuries (2 call ups uncapped), so we'll know more who he releases tomorrow and get a better idea of the team. Regardless of that, the players are well aware that this is the most important game of the series to ensure they stay in the top 4 ahead of the 2015 draw so they will be playing for something huge, and will not be complacent. If the conditions are good in Paris on saturday, i'll be on the minus side of that handicap.

[shrapnel]

NZ -16 on b365, mick. I've just launched for max bet!

didn't last long at all, neither did the -17 , both on -18 now.

[amberleaf]

England South Africa scr England looked poor at weekend questions have to be asked about decision making. Losing by 6pts turning down simple 3 pointers when they had no massive advantage in the scrums then not converting stupid.
Saffers not playing great but have two wins under the belt and England played so poor sat id fancy Saffers by 3 4 points.

south africa seem to have a touch of a one trick pony about them on this tour,all about the forwards,from two of their three tries, their scoring platform is win line out,maul and try.(their 100% on winning their own line outs so far)the 3rd was a intercept job due to a stupid scottish float pass.plenty of ifs and puts about this,you could argue that on a good day both ireland and scotland could have won.they seem to wilt a bit in the last twenty in the scotland game as well,as for england they seemed put in their best in the last twenty.was thinking the flip-flop might be a little value sa to lead at half time and england to win full time @ 7/1 could be worth a look,also have a look at the clips from the two games played so far,reckon the blonde hooker could be worth a few hail marys for the first try scorer if we get the same price as last week,stranger things have happened.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd7tGrIFTB4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCWREUcGMwo

[conspicuous]

NZ -16 on b365, mick. I've just launched for max bet!

I missed the -16 but I have a 4 pt bet on NZ -17. They're -18 now which is still pretty good. I expected it to be -20/-21 which it probably will be come kick off. NZ are sending out a full strength side and are primed for this one. Wales are imploding, fighting amongst themselves and have no respect for their coach. Even a shake up of the team last weekend couldn't stop the rot, I expect a big win here for NZ

[shrapnel]

I missed the -16 but I have a 4 pt bet on NZ -17. They're -18 now which is still pretty good. I expected it to be -20/-21 which it probably will be come kick off. NZ are sending out a full strength side and are primed for this one. Wales are imploding, fighting amongst themselves and have no respect for their coach. Even a shake up of the team last weekend couldn't stop the rot, I expect a big win here for NZ

Gatland is back coaching Wales for the last 2 Autumn internationals. i think that might be quite a massive boost to the squad tbh. it's certainly starting to make the +20 you can already get a little bit enticing.

[conspicuous]

After seeing the French squad named for the Samoa match, I've decided to have a biggish punt on them. France just might be onto something here with Saint Andre and a mature Freddie pulling the strings at out half. Consistency of selection and performance arent what you normally assosciate with Les Bleus but that just might be what were getting now. France will run the big Samoan pack around the park and I expect gaps to appear in the final 30 minutes. Considering France have beat Australia and Argentina by 27 and 17 points respectively, then a 13 point handicap against Samoa seems highly achieveable. Samoa will attempt to bring a highly structured, highly physical, agressive game to France which the hosts havn't always responded well to in the past. However they showed last week against Argentina that this team can mix it up with physical opposition, they can play the percentages and they can counter attack. They may have to slug it out here and it wont be pretty but I believe France will beat this handicap even if it takes 65/70 minutes.

France squad:

Forwards (13): Thomas Domingo (Clermont), Yannick Forestier (Castres), Benjamin Kayser (Clermont), Dimitri Szarzewski (Racing-Metro), Vincent Debaty (Clermont), Nicolas Mas (Perpignan), Yoann Maestri (Toulouse), Pascal Pape (capt/Stade Francais), Jocelino Suta (Toulon), Damien Chouly (Clermont), Yannick Nyanga (Toulouse), Fulgence Ouedraogo (Montpellier), Louis Picamoles (Toulouse)

Back (11): Maxime Machenaud (Racing-Metro), Morgan Parra (Clermont), Frederic Michalak (Toulon), Franxois Trinh-Duc (Montpellier), Vincent Clerc (Toulouse), Brice Dulin (Castres), Wesley Fofana (Clermont), Florian Fritz (Toulouse), Yoann Huget (Toulouse), Maxime Mermoz (Toulon), Benjamin Fall (Racing-Metro)

Bet
3pts France[-13] v Samoa @ 10/11 SportingBet

[conspicuous]

Gatland is back coaching Wales for the last 2 Autumn internationals. i think that might be quite a massive boost to the squad tbh. it's certainly starting to make the +20 you can already get a little bit enticing.

Gatland will lift morale and bring some discipline back into the team but there will be no miracles over a few days. Its a full strength ABs on show too. I wouldn't back Wales at +20 but Im glad I took NZ at -17

[amberleaf]

anyone know why it takes 14 hours to get from belfast to pama,italy

[amberleaf]

Argentinas price is starting to move already,into 7/4 from 2/1,tbh i've no idea why they're this price in the first place,but think this is value and have placed my first bet of the week with the puma at 7/4 with a view to laying off later,even during the game.

[Guest]

Argentinas price is starting to move already,into 7/4 from 2/1,tbh i've no idea why they're this price in the first place,but think this is value and have placed my first bet of the week with the puma at 7/4 with a view to laying off later,even during the game.

To me too its utterly baffling.
We are five games on the bounce defeated.
Ok 3 were against all blacks but coinfidence must be very low.
Were missing too many of our good players and Kidneys selections out are baffling at times.

[conspicuous]

Im kind of playing devils advocate here because Ive no intention of getting involved in the Ireland/Arg match but maybe the 2/1 or +6 for Argentina isnt as generous as it seems? While Argentina went through a bruising physical encounter against France last weekend Ireland could afford to rest many tirst team players fro the clash against Fiji. Argentina dont have the depth for rotation and just may be stretched here. look at our performances in the final match of end of season tours in recent years, we are usually out on our feet like v NZ last summer. Like I said Im just trying to give and argument for Ireland's favourtism and I don't go into the game with any conviction that we will win. Amberleaf you are absolutely right in your belief that Ireland wont start any shorter so it probably makes sense from a trading perspective

Edit: apologies for leaving this post unfinished I was having computer probs last night

[amberleaf]

the bet is more to do with what i think the starting price will be on Argentina,there's going to be huge media attention when the team is made known and its at this point,this game will start to come into most peoples mind and part of that will be focused on the pumas attacking off load which in fairness is excellent and them beating wales in particular,just cant see both paddy the punter or the pros for that matter getting stuck into ireland at this price,i'm not really backing argentina to win the game as such.if you fancy ireland i'd wait,fairly certain it wont get shorter then it is now

is this a shit or bust time for dk and co.think it might be,a bad result here and the time-frame before we hit the 6n could see him on his bike.the game v sa,thought the game management of some of the players,mike ross in particular as well as others was poor,to me it lacked confidence on the other hand the pumas seem full of it,after being together for the bones of ten weeks now and it showed in the welsh game.i can see the irish keeping this very tight early and dont think they'll spread it out that often early,think they'll force the game and take the points when possible off sexton.if argentina Isolate players out wide and turn over,their off loading counter attacking is plenty good enough to punish us.if they do get a few score early,this might force irelands hand a little,could end up being a wide open cup final.

[amberleaf]

and in other news,it's the same again for the boks with no changes from last week,would think its highly likely we'll see the same strategies employed,tbh the most attractive part of south africa game on this tour is rene,in fairness she's looking well

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCW5bfv1m2k

[amberleaf]

second bet done for the weekend and it looks a little obvious but have gone with a small nibble on Tim Visser for the first try scorer in the scotland/tonga game,he's 8/13 with sky and 10/11 with pp as anytime try scorer but at 7/1 might be a little value for the first,the stats show (at international level)4 caps-4 trys-20 points total,and is by far edinburgh rugbys top scorer this and last season.tonga are a big physical side with plenty of grunt up front,would think the scots will try and go around them rather than through them,also have heard/saw a few times on reports that he always "seems to be in the right place at the right time",personally i think he's a excellent reader of circumstances and has very quick reaction time when they arise coupled with great pace,will also have a familiar look around him,gave a mug 1 point bet @ 7/1

15 Stuart Hogg (Glasgow Warriors) 9 caps, 1 try, 5 points
14 Sean Lamont (Glasgow Warriors) 70 caps, 8 tries, 40 points
13 Max Evans (Castres) 31 caps, 3 tries, 15 points
12 Matt Scott (Edinburgh Rugby) 6 caps
11 Tim Visser (Edinburgh Rugby) 4 caps, 4 tries, 20 points
10 Greig Laidlaw (Edinburgh Rugby) 12 caps, 2 tries, 11 conversions, 17 penalties, 83 points
9 Henry Pyrgos (Glasgow Warriors) 2 caps, 1 try, 5 points
1 Ryan Grant (Glasgow Warriors) 5 caps
2 Scott Lawson (London Irish) 35 caps, 2 tries, 10 points
3 Euan Murray (Worcester Warriors) 48 caps, 2 tries, 10 points
4 Richie Gray (Sale Sharks) 26 caps, 1 try, 5 points
5 Alastair Kellock (Glasgow Warriors) 46 caps, 1 try, 5 points
6 Alasdair Strokosch (Perpignan) 29 caps, 1 try, 5 points
7 Kelly Brown (Saracens) CAPTAIN 51 caps, 4 tries, 20 points
8 David Denton (Edinburgh Rugby) 8 caps
Substitutes
16 Dougie Hall (Glasgow Warriors) 38 caps, 1 try, 5 points
17 Kyle Traynor (Bristol Rugby) 3 caps
18 Geoff Cross (Edinburgh Rugby) 16 caps, 1 try, 5 points
19 Grant Gilchrist (Edinburgh Rugby) uncapped
20 John Barclay (Glasgow Warriors) 40 caps, 2 tries, 10 points
21 Rory Lawson (Newcastle Falcons) 30 caps
22 Tom Heathcote (Bath Rugby) uncapped
23 Nick De Luca (Edinburgh Rugby) 37 caps, 1 try, 5 points

[shrapnel]

3 changes for France, 2 in the front row and Parra at scrum half.

Brice Dulin - Wesley Fofana, Florian Fritz, Maxime Mermoz, Vincent Clerc - (o) Frédéric Michalak, (m) Morgan Parra - Fulgence Ouedraogo, Louis Picamoles, Yannick Nyanga - Yoann Maestri, Pascal Papé (cap.) - Nicolas Mas, Benjamin Kayser, Thomas Domingo

conditions look good for saturday night so will be on the -14


re the wales games, conditions are going to be horrendous. rain all day and rain all night with strong winds. I wouldn't be surprised if they left the roof open, so the +20 might be worth the punt

[shrapnel]

interesting to see that the IRB is appealing the 1 match ban received by New Zealander Thomson for stamping on a scotsman's head, saying it was way too lenient and he deserves a much bigger ban than that!!

[conspicuous]

3 changes for France, 2 in the front row and Parra at scrum half.

Brice Dulin - Wesley Fofana, Florian Fritz, Maxime Mermoz, Vincent Clerc - (o) Frédéric Michalak, (m) Morgan Parra - Fulgence Ouedraogo, Louis Picamoles, Yannick Nyanga - Yoann Maestri, Pascal Papé (cap.) - Nicolas Mas, Benjamin Kayser, Thomas Domingo

conditions look good for saturday night so will be on the -14


re the wales games, conditions are going to be horrendous. rain all day and rain all night with strong winds. I wouldn't be surprised if they left the roof open, so the +20 might be worth the punt

Brilliant management by PSA freshening things up at the scrum and Parra at the base while maintaining consistency in the backrow and across midfield. I have a 3 pt bet on France [-13] which is still available from sportingbet. You can also avail of France[-14] with Bet 365 @ evens.

Shrapnel I really hope you're wrong about Wales keeping the roof open on Saturday night

[amberleaf]

interesting to see that the IRB is appealing the 1 match ban received by New Zealander Thomson for stamping on a scotsman's head, saying it was way too lenient and he deserves a much bigger ban than that!!

silly thing to do in any televised game,with any dangerous play being highlighted and a foot around the head would be a big no,no.by appealing the decision with plenty of media coverage thus educating the masses in the process being the thinking behind it i suppose

[Guest]

3 changes for France, 2 in the front row and Parra at scrum half.

Brice Dulin - Wesley Fofana, Florian Fritz, Maxime Mermoz, Vincent Clerc - (o) Frédéric Michalak, (m) Morgan Parra - Fulgence Ouedraogo, Louis Picamoles, Yannick Nyanga - Yoann Maestri, Pascal Papé (cap.) - Nicolas Mas, Benjamin Kayser, Thomas Domingo

conditions look good for saturday night so will be on the -14


re the wales games, conditions are going to be horrendous. rain all day and rain all night with strong winds. I wouldn't be surprised if they left the roof open, so the +20 might be worth the punt

Shrap your losing massive equity by not picking the best price available.
France can be got at -13pts at 1/1 evens @ sporting bet..
Three of the last 4 matches i done a write up covered the handicap by 1 or 2 points.

Taking the lazy option would have cost people money you need every advantage possible and not taking the best price your drawing dead.

Hope your wrong about the roff not being on cant imagine the fans getting soaked to the skin enjoying it.
Soft enough Welsh pack wont be much of an advantage to them besides keeping the scoring down.

[amberleaf]

3rd bet of the weekend, billy's giving me 28/1 on Adriaan Straus for the first try scorer for sa,will lighting strike twice, time for the holy water me thinks, give it point on the nose

[shrapnel]

Shrap your losing massive equity by not picking the best price available.
France can be got at -13pts at 1/1 evens @ sporting bet..
Three of the last 4 matches i done a write up covered the handicap by 1 or 2 points.

Taking the lazy option would have cost people money you need every advantage possible and not taking the best price your drawing dead.

Hope your wrong about the roff not being on cant imagine the fans getting soaked to the skin enjoying it.
Soft enough Welsh pack wont be much of an advantage to them besides keeping the scoring down.

that -13 wasn't available last night when i checked, and don't have access to those sites at work during the day. definitely agree that -13 is much better.

re the roof, if it's bucketting down all day long, they'll most likely close it. if it's just "raining", i'd be surprised if they close it.

[Guest]

that -13 wasn't available last night when i checked, and don't have access to those sites at work during the day. definitely agree that -13 is much better.

re the roof, if it's bucketting down all day long, they'll most likely close it. if it's just "raining", i'd be surprised if they close it.

Well surely that job has to go so.

Its fine here to help also 10/11 is .91 and evens .2.00 os as well as the point difference
9%difference is huge too.

[conspicuous]

Anybody got any thoughts on Australia v Italy? Bet365 are offering evens on both sides with a 14 point handicap on Australia. Australia have named a strong team which many of the regular Aussie posters on planetrugby are very happy about. Going by the same logic that says other teams with a small squad like Samoa will struggle in their third match on consecutive weekend, Im leaning towards a convincing win for Australia on the basis that Italy will be stretched. Last weeks massive effort against NZ is bound to take its toll while Australia might kick on after beating England when everyone had written them off. Here's the Australia squad for Saturday

Australia: 15 Berrick Barnes, 14 Nick Cummins, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Ben Tapuai, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Brett Sheehan, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Higginbotham, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements:16 Tatafu Polota Nau, 17 James Slipper, 18 Sekope Kepu, 19 Dave Dennis, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Mike Harris, 23 Digby Ioane

Recent encounters between the 2 sides would favour the argument that Australia can beat a 14 point handicap

Recent Results:
2011:Australia won 32-6 in North Harbour
2010: Australia won 32-14 in Florence
2009: Australia won 34-12 in Melbourne
2009: Australia won 31-8 in Canberra


However doubts remain about Australia's consistency which is probably what is holding me back. They hav'nt dismissed anyone convincingly in 2012 although that must be put in context of who they faced. History shows that width and pace usually does it against Italy and Australia have enough game breakers in Beale, Ashley -Cooper and Mitchell to create opportunities if they gain parity up front. If these fixtures were reversed with last weeks I dont think I would be near as bullish about Australia obviously. Its close but I think it should be -16 or so rather than -14 so Im going with Aus. The 1/1 with Bet 365 also helps my decision


2 pt bet Australia[-14] @ evens with Bet365

[conspicuous]

Well surely that job has to go so.

Its fine here to help also 10/11 is .91 and evens .2.00 os as well as the point difference
9%difference is huge too.

Very true I always try to use the best odds available from oddschecker and quote them here . If not I explain my reasons. You would be amazed by the difference in odds offered by the different bookies sometimes

[ciarraithuaidh]

Might be repeating words of others here, but just a few possible angles I have noted for the weekends action.
Australia -14 @evens on Bet365. Given their record v Italy and on the back of a morale-boosting win in Twickenham.
Australia to win 2nd half -7 @10/11 Ladrokes. Italians habit of running out of steam/leaking tries etc.
(Little bet on Drew Mitchell anytime tryscorer @11/8 Ladbrokes..just back from serious injury but 30 tries in 46 starts for Wallabies..he knows how to score)

France -14 @evens v Samoa Bet365
France to win 2nd half -8 @11/10 on Ladbrokes is insanely good odds given the fact that Samoa put everything into the game in Cardiff a week ago and have 4 big players out as a result…probably happy enough mentally with the win in Cardiff and not expecting to win here so could be in holiday mode by the end of it.
Fofana anytime tryscorer @6/4 on Paddypower is worth a shot given his record added to the above reasoning.
1 note of caution..rain is forecast for this Sat night kickoff in Paris. If it is torrential, obv the spread becomes less attractive.

In NZ v Wales, there are doubts over Dan Carter having pulled up in training..also indications that they will leave the roof open despite the rain forecast. Unsure on the spread because of this. In game is the best option I think.
Julian Savea is scoring tries for fun and is available @5/4 anytime on Hills. (he is also now up against an out-of-position fullback in Liam Williams instead of the injured George North making this a more attractive bet)
Israel Dagg is available @6/4 on Boyles which given his record of 12 tries in 20 caps is not bad.

[amberleaf]

Treviso: 15 Brendan Williams, 14 Giulio Toniolatti, 13 Christian Loamanu, 12 Andrew Vilk, 11 Ludovico Nitoglia, 10 Alberto Di Bernardo, 9 Fabio Semenzato, 8 Marco Filippucci, 7 Paul Derbyshire, 6 Valerio Bernabò, 5 Corniel Van Zyl (c), 4 Marco Fuser, 3 Jacobus Roux, 2 Franco Sbaraglini, 1 Matteo Muccignat.
Replacements: 16 Enrico Ceccato, 17 Giovanni Maistri, 18 Ignacio Fernandez-Rouyet, 19 Filippo Giusti, 20 Andrea Pratichetti, 21 Angelo Esposito, 22 James Ambrosini, 23 Luca Morisi.

Ulster: 15 Peter Nelson, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Michael Allen, 10 Niall O'Connor, 9 Paul Marshall, 8 Roger Wilson (capt), 7 Mike McComish, 6 Nick Williams, 5 Nigel McComb, 4 Robbie Diack, 3 Declan Fitzpatrick, 2 Rob Herring, 1 Tom Court.
Replacements: 16 Nigel Brady, 17 Callum Black, 18 John Afoa, 19 James Simpson, 20 Ali Birch, 21 Michael Heaney, 22 Stuart Olding, 23 Chris Cochrane.


ulster-3 with stan james(-5 everywhere else)worth a little punt imo,this is the second leg of their pro 12 mini tour of italy.last sunday they played very poorly in parma and were lucky to get the win but for the most part the mistakes they made from which Zebre scored tries from were basic and wont be hard to fix.it took 14 hour to get from belfast to parma landing at their hotel at 11pm the night before which mark anscombe was critical off.they've stayed in italy for the week and will be well rested at the very least.a total of 6 changes starting line up including trimble and marshall and looks a far stronger side than last weekend.trevisio wont be easy to beat by any means and also have their internationals on the bench,which is where this game imo could be won or lost,going to give a 3 pointer given ulsters record this season.btw this game is on the bbc 18.05 gmt (red button)

[Emmet]

taken the -3, believe it should be -8 tbh.

6:05pm

[amberleaf]

Treviso have a very good record at home this season tho,a few welsh scalps in the bag and leinster won by just a point,glasgow won by 11 but scored a very lucky try.shoud be a right little battle.

see ladbrokes have priced up the total point market in the ire/arg match with the line at 38.5,they have ireland @ 4/9 to win.the pumas have scored 26 v wales and 22 v france,you would think they could very well put a similar score on ireland,if the book is right then the overs looks the way to go here,going to give it a 2 pointer @ 5/6 over 38.5.the weather forecast looks fine as well.tbh reckon this could have the potential of being a very high scoring game.

[amberleaf]

just one last stat on Treviso,they were leading at half time in all their home pro 12 game except one,couple that with the half time hcp (which for the most part is on the plus side) with Italian rugby in general,could be worth keeping a eye on as the season moves on