Although I'm not a big fan of betting against Irish lads I'm being told Willie Casey has no chance in tomorrow night's fight and will be knocked out well inside the distance.
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Casey definitley should not have a chance in this one on paper if he can get close early and lay a hand on him you never know cordoba had him down in his last fight and nearly sneaked it at the end mainly due to Rigondeaux taking his eye of the ball. First 2-3 rounds crucial. Casey's style suits the pro game and rigondeaux is only in his 8th fight as a pro.
I would not fancy Casey like yourself dont like backing against the Irish Lads either!
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if casey can overwhelm him early and upset him he might have a chance, if he could chin him an early round and with the home crowd behind him its all to play for.
i cant see this going the distance and if it does casey will not win. this is not a paul hyland type lad he is boxing, this guy is a propper boxer with a world title.
although both only have about 20 pro fights between them, Rig is a hundred miles ahead of casey in experience.
as for a betting opportunity, I would stay well clear.
as irish boxing goes this is our best chance of a world title in the near future, andy lee was lucky last week with a late knock out as he was behind, paul mccloskey has no chance in his title fight vs Khan(bar a catching him cold slap).
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Rigondeaux is patient and althogh hits hard with his counter punch his punch volume isnt high. I can see Rigondeaux on his bike in the early rounds especially if Casey comes at him like he did against Hyland.
Casey is honest to a fault and will be prepared to die trying and if doesnt expend to much energy and punch himself out i can see him getting to the end of 12rds for a brave points loss. Addy standing in against Rig at short notice and getting tothe end beaten on pts(8rd's) stands to this. Worse case scenario other thank getting KO'd or cut is if Casey starts spluttering, runs out of petrol and keeps to the same game plan Rigondeaux should take him out but if self preservation kicks in and he backs off and covers up to make it to the bell he should do it with a partisan crowd on his side.
I dont think we will see the best of Rigondeaux until hes out of Cork based manager Gary Hydes contract and under Freddie Roach.
Rigondeaux by pts/decision
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didnt know much about either boxer before the fight but when i saw casey step in to the ring and then the cuban i was struck by the sheer superiority of physique and strut between the two. i immediately feared the worst for casey and in fact i felt really sorry for him from start to finish. outrageous mismatch on every level.
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Cleverly Fight
...Was Looking through the betting in this and a little confused...
Nathan Cleverly to win is 1/25
Nathan Cleverly to win round one is 5/6
Nathan Cleverly to win round 1-3 is 5/1
How do they work out that its odds on to win in 1st round, but 5/1to win in first 3 rounds...
I think its incredible value, cannot see it lasting long at all...
any opinions?
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I'm not sure about this but just by glancing I think your picking them up wrong,
I'd be nearly certain its 5/1 for him to win rounds 1,2 & 3 not just one of those rounds
buth then again if you were back him @ 5/6 (1.83) each round for 3 rounds that adds to 6.12 rather than the 5/1 (6.0) their offering
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..Don't think I am, but would like to be sure before betting on it...its on Paddy Power,
Round Betting
Nathan Cleverly To Win in Round 1 5/6
Nathan Cleverly To Win in Round 2 13/1
Nathan Cleverly To Win in Round 3 12/1
Nathan Cleverly To Win in Round 4 12/1
Nathan Cleverly To Win in Round 5 9/1
Nathan Cleverly To Win in Round 6 9/1 \\
Group Round Betting
Nathan Cleverly Round 1-3 5/1
Nathan Cleverly Round 4-6 3/1
Nathan Cleverly Round 7-9 3/1
Nathan Cleverly Round 10-12 5/1
even the under 9.5 rounds is 1/2
im thinking maybe a mistype on the round 1 knockout, as everything else is sooo different...?
cheers for reply, (hope im not spamming with this shite)
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostCleverly is 15.0 to win rd 1 on betfair
I still think 1/3 inside 9 rounds is value, but I took him on BF at 1.4 (2/5) to win inside 12 rounds
In a fit spontanuity, i put far too much of my roll on him
Otherwise no bother and GL with it
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Originally posted by Semibluff View PostIf you've too much on him, ill take whatever action you dont want. Quote before the off if you want, and pm the amount
Otherwise no bother and GL with it
Felt prett confident that he'd finish it and put my biggest betfair bet to date on him, then as soon as I did the sensible bankroll management side of me kicked it.
KO'd in the fourth. So happy today.
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Originally posted by briii1 View PostAnyone doing any bets on the weekend fights?
What do people think of murrays chances against rees ?
I see he's available at 9/4 for the win, also is froch on points against
Johnson at4/5 an absolute banke?
The question being is Murray as good a boxer as his management think he is, he hasnt been troubled very much in his career to date and can he handle the jump up in class?
Im thinking Rees on points all day unfortunately with a brave Murray hearing the final bell..
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Il probably just go for the Murray fight to go the distance, I was just looking at the prices as i remember when McCloskey beat Lines over in England he was a similar price, Think Rees being back down at lightweight suits him much better have not seen his last few fights and missed prizefighter.
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Klitschko v Haye. Where do ye see the value?
Wladimir Klitschko by Decision or Technical Decision @ 4/1?
Both have high KO%s and suspect chins but I think their contrasting styles could prolong the fight at an easy pace and it will come down to the 12th to see if one can finish the other off. Klitschko should take the early rounds.
Tale of the Tape:
Wladimir Klitschko
Age: 35
Height: 6 feet 6
Reach: 81′
Stance: Orthodox
KO %: 84.48%
David Haye
Age: 30
Height: 6 feet 3
Reach: 78”
Stance: Orthodox
KO%: 88.46%
Other bets:
Over 7.5 Rounds @ 1.85
Wladimir Klitschko Round 12 @ 34
Wladimir Klitschko to be knocked down and win @ 8
Wladimir Klitschko by Decision or Technical Decision
Stake: 22% Returns: 110%
Over 7.5 Rounds
Stake: 55% Returns 101%
Wladimir Klitschko Round 12
Stake: 10% Returns 340%
Wladimir Klitschko to be knocked down and win
Stake: 13% Returns: 104%Last edited by CheckRaise; 19-06-11, 14:28.
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I think Haye has a real chace in this one, I think everyone is expecting Haye to come out and try and blow Klitck away early. I would not be surprised to see Haye try and stick and move and use his speed advantage and beat Klitscko on the run.
Haye's a great talker and has the skill to back it up, Booth is no fool either and i think they know there not going to bum rush him early. like everyone thinks is his only chance.
i hope its a good fight i'll look at the prices close to see whats available.
Il be leaning twoards a Haye win at 7/5
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Originally posted by briii1 View PostI think Haye has a real chace in this one, I think everyone is expecting Haye to come out and try and blow Klitck away early. I would not be surprised to see Haye try and stick and move and use his speed advantage and beat Klitscko on the run.
Haye's a great talker and has the skill to back it up, Booth is no fool either and i think they know there not going to bum rush him early. like everyone thinks is his only chance.
i hope its a good fight i'll look at the prices close to see whats available.
Il be leaning twoards a Haye win at 7/5
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I keep looking at this match trying to price it up and the only thing that is a certainty from each of their records including winning distances against certain types of opponents is that this fight is unpredictable. It should be a great fight and I'm looking too hard for a bet.
Have given up trying to figure it out and will just enjoy it with one bet:
Wladimir Klitschko to be knocked down @ 2.62 (Paddy Power)Last edited by CheckRaise; 30-06-11, 19:43.
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I'm thinking haye has a massive chance here as wLad has been feeding on the likes of Samuel Peter and at best b level fighters which in my opinion has flattered him, haye will connect at some stage and I'm thinking booth will have a perfect gameplan as always, the 7/5 about haye has to be taken imo.
Have gone for the 7/5 haye to win as my main bet and like smaller bets on the group betting Haye 5-8 and 9-12.
I just feel that wlad won't have the luxury of standing behind his jab like he has against the usual plodding heavyweights. A lot of ifs and buts i know but the last time wlad went in against a fast handed heavy in sanders we all know what happened.
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Haye's only chance of winning this fight is by KO so if you are having a bet on it you should back him for a stoppage win.
Personally I'm not betting on it because I can't see Wlad losing if he wants to win. If Haye won this though he is in line for a box office fight that would be bigger than anything seen since the Golden Boy fought Mayweather and against another Klitscho. A loss for Wlad would mean bigger earnings in one fight than the Klitscho brothers would make between them for the rest of their careers if Wlad wins.
Haye has fought nobody of worth. Valuev has ducked the Klitschos his whole career. They have fought better fighters but they want to make money now and the Peters fight was a bigger earner than fighting a good fighter like Chagaev. And Wlad has fought and beat Chagaev which was his only defeat to date.Last edited by eagle eye; 30-06-11, 19:50.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by eagle eye View PostHaye's only chance of winning this fight is by KO so if you are having a bet on it you should back him for a stoppage win.
Personally I'm not betting on it because I can't see Wlad losing if he wants to win. If Haye won this though he is in line for a box office fight that would be bigger than anything seen since the Golden Boy fought Mayweather and against another Klitscho. A loss for Wlad would mean bigger earnings in one fight than the Klitscho brothers would make between them for the rest of their careers if Wlad wins.
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Originally posted by Jaysoose View PostHow do you figure his only chance is a ko? He took vlauev on points and could realistically outbox wlad and wlad won't be able to jab and grab as much against Hayes movement.
He is the best boxing heavyweight since Lewis and one of the best boxing heavys of all time. He isn't a good scrapper but he doesn't need to do that, he has the jaw weakness too but he will never lose a fight over the distance.
Personally I think as an all round Vitaly is the best of the two of them but for pure boxing technique Wlad is miles ahead of anybody.
And actually lol, there is the Germany factor anyways if it went the distance as Insanodude mentions.
Edit: And Valuev is just a big oaf. He is clueless and has lived off handy fights for years. He wouldn't fight the Klitschkos and he wouldn't fight his compatriot Chagaev either. There is a huge lack of decent fighters in the division and he has never fought any of them. And Luiz has been a bum in fighting terms for years now, long, long before he fought Haye.Last edited by eagle eye; 30-06-11, 21:37.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by eagle eye View PostThere is no chance he could outbox Wlad. Wlad is the best boxing heavyweight in the world and by a mile. Wlad has been stopped three times in his career. Nobody has ever gotten close to beating him on points. He has stopped nearly all of his opponents and he has great power too but he wins most rounds that he fights. The reason for such a high knockout ratio is that his opponents go for it or tire because they are being owned round after round and he gets opportunities to finish fights.
He is the best boxing heavyweight since Lewis and one of the best boxing heavys of all time. He isn't a good scrapper but he doesn't need to do that, he has the jaw weakness too but he will never lose a fight over the distance.
Personally I think as an all round Vitaly is the best of the two of them but for pure boxing technique Wlad is miles ahead of anybody.
And actually lol, there is the Germany factor anyways if it went the distance as Insanodude mentions.
Edit: And Valuev is just a big oaf. He is clueless and has lived off handy fights for years. He wouldn't fight the Klitschkos and he wouldn't fight his compatriot Chagaev either. There is a huge lack of decent fighters in the division and he has never fought any of them. And Luiz has been a bum in fighting terms for years now, long, long before he fought Haye.
Can't argue with the valuev critique he is a freakshow.
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Originally posted by dannydiamond View PostWhat do you make of the 2 stone weight difference between the two, Is this going to be a big factor?
A 3 inch height advantage is big and when you have a guy as skillful as Wlad then that 3 inch reach advantage is huge.'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by dannydiamond View PostWhat do you make of the 2 stone weight difference between the two, Is this going to be a big factor?
Worse boxer
shorter
lighter
weaker
He's got speed, that's it.People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by badugi View Postwas only going to do 4euro to make 204 for the price of a pint haha
doubt ud take a 2euro bet? at40/1 lol i have nowt in poker, 1.90 on stars only if i can spin to 2 euro lol FML
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Originally posted by luckforsome View Post..prob too late to be getting answers...would anyone know what time mayweather fight is on Irish time, and any decent links for it...any help appreciated...wouldnt want to miss the black Messi in Action...
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Originally posted by burkeyoa View Post
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...kahn fight...
...Anyone staying up to watch the Kahn fight...hate him as a person, but cant help but be impressed with him...
Think 4/6 with ladbrokes for the K/O is fantasitc value....definitly dont see it going long at alll....
...and 9/2 rounds 4-6 is pretty good value...
also...not much knowledge of MMA, but from what ive seen and read, jones to win by knockout looks a good price at evens...especially thrown in with the kahn bet....although as mentioned, limited knowledge in this....Think Mellor is the expert from what ive read...
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Originally posted by luckforsome View Post...Anyone staying up to watch the Kahn fight...hate him as a person, but cant help but be impressed with him...
Think 4/6 with ladbrokes for the K/O is fantasitc value....definitly dont see it going long at alll....
...and 9/2 rounds 4-6 is pretty good value...
also...not much knowledge of MMA, but from what ive seen and read, jones to win by knockout looks a good price at evens...especially thrown in with the kahn bet....although as mentioned, limited knowledge in this....Think Mellor is the expert from what ive read...
Wouldn't have a view on mma as i just don't know know enough about it, only watch it an odd time.
As for Amir Khan by KO TKO or Disqualification 4/6 should really be free money. Now that iv'e said that Khan will prob be ko'd in the first
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Originally posted by Arazi View PostI backed Peterson in about the 8th round at 3.65 when it looked like he was going to stop Khan. He was still almost this price when they were going to tje scorecards, unbelievable as he was clearly going to win IMO.
The most ungracious loser I've ever seen, dirty little sasnaigh!
...At least now there is no chance of him fighting Mayweather...Nowhere near his class, and hasnt earned the oppurtunity...
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