Dont know enough about GAA to comment on matches but i'd personally think putting it all on the first bet would be the way to go.
Will bow to others better knowledge though.
SPOILER
€48.50 on first bet returns €220.67
Splitting it in 2 bets returns €325.94
Are the 2 extra results likely to be worth an extra €105.27 profit in the chances they come in v the potential €84.18 loss if they dont & the first 4 do?
That's exactly the sort of feedback I was looking for tbh - I can pick a winner fairly well I think but my grasp on the mechanics of the gambol wouldn't be great I'll think about the risk:reward for a while before deciding.
Anyone else wanting to row in with their thoughts would be most welcome obv
I'm a Kildare fan and don't think that 2/7 looks like value. Sure they're favourites and should be, but Derry are a big physical team and playing for their season at home next Saturday. Think we should win but odds look short and def wouldn't be betting with teh handicap. I really fancy Cork against Down who aren't showing much thsi year. I would suugest you add a -2 or -3 handicap to Cork beating Down and drop Kildare if it kept the overall odds the same. Depends how much the 2/7 actually adds to the odds overall as it's x4 or something due to the accumulator. Just my 2c tho, I'm not expert!
Derry aren't at home - they have to travel to Croke Park.
Of course! Forgot about the double-header. Was on about it being in Derry or Donegal before the Ulster final and still have that in my head. Prob makes it significantly safer for Kildare really so. Fire ahead with 1st bet!
Kildare @ 2/7 to beat Derry Cork @ 4/9 to beat Down Wexford (-2.0) @ 10/11 to beat Limerick Galway @ 2/7 to beat Waterford (Hurling)
This looks safe enough to me.
Kildare should have too much for Derry, having built up some momentum coming through qualifiers against Laois and Meath after running Dublin close, while Derry will be battered and bruised from the Ulster final on Sunday and are missing their two marquee forwards.
Cork should squeeze past an underperforming Down team who have been poor in all their matches so far and appear to be suffering second season syndrome. Cork will be a bit light up front after losing Ciaran Sheehan, but will dominate a weak Down midfield.
Wexford running Dublin close was no accident. They are a classy side, with a good forward line that should be way too hot for Limerick to handle. Limerick beat Wexford in the league, but have since lost the great John Galvin, and have been the beneficiaries of a very soft draw to get this far in the Championship.
My hurling expertise isn't too great, but the consensus seems to be that Galway will have far too much for Waterford, having shown well against Clare and Cork since their loss to Dublin in Leinster, while Waterford were destroyed last time out against Tipperary. The weaknesses in Waterford's full back line should be exploited to the nth degree by the peerless Joe Canning.
2. €18.50 five-fold @ 9.24/1
SPOILER
Kildare (-4) @ 2/7 to beat Derry Cork @ 4/9 to beat Down Wexford (-2.0) @ 10/11 to beat Limerick Tyrone @ 4/9 to beat Armagh Galway @ 2/7 to beat Waterford (Hurling)
A few more variables in this one but if the first bet is value I think this one has to be as well.
The differences:
Kildare (-4) - if Derry turn up, they can potentially suck Kildare into a dogfight. Kildare don't have the best forwards in the country and could potentially struggle to put up a big score, however the wide pitch in Croke Park should work to their advantage, with the roving John Doyle likely to find plenty space to feed good ball into O'Connor at full-forward, who's been very dangerous in recent games. The venue won't suit a tired Derry side who could potentially capitulate if they come under pressure. The main issue is Kildare's tendancy to start slowly could give Derry the opportunity to get their teeth into the game, although their lack of firepower can be seen from the fact that they scored only 8 points last week.
Tyrone to beat Armagh - Armagh are quite short on quality IMO, with Clarke, Kernan and McDonnell the only real standout players to me unless someone is slipping my mind. Tyrone's biggest vulnerability IMO is their engine. A fast, fit team looks likely to be the best way to get at some of the creaking joints they have, but a clash with Armagh in Omagh is very unlikely to have the sort of free flow to trouble them in this regard. The caveat to this one is that I haven't seen much of either team this year, but reports I'm hearing seem to back up my thoughts on this meeting. Stephen O'Neill is missing for Tyrone, but they have decent forwards and should be able to carry his loss in this one.
Your recent record on the GAA accums speaks volumes. Mind you Kerry were lucky to beat Cork imo.
On this occasion the only obvious stumbling block that I can see is that of a Wexford team unused to being strong favorites and you have them in both accums. They were big underdogs against Dublin and played with no fear and like a team with nothing to lose, in the knowledge that they would have a second chance anyway. The question is how good are they in light of a below par Dublin performance on the day. Yes Wexford have good forwards but I haven't actually seen Limerick so this is a hard one to weigh up.
In conclusion I wouldn't have them in accum 1 as a banker. Having said that, no doubt they'll prove me wrong. I was going to suggest replacing Wexford in accum 1 with Tyrone 4/9 from accum 2. However having gathered my thoughts on that I feel that 4/9 doesen't really offer a lot of value and these games are generally close. I haven't seen too much of Armagh thus far but they probably have the bulk of that Crossmaglen who won the All Ireland club championship.
Over to you, Keane. At this stage you should probably be giving the rest of us passengers a pep-talk instead of contemplating the collective view, but its always good to talk sport.
"Let your boat of life be light, packed with only what you need - a homely home and simple pleasures, one or two friends, worth the name, someone to love and someone to love you, a cat, a dog, and a pipe or two, enough to eat and enough to wear, and a little more than enough to drink; for thirst is a dangerous thing." Jerome K. JeromeThree men in a Boat
Ha, thanks but I'm fairly sure I'm just on an upswing!
On reflection, Nuck's probably right about the -4 about Kildare being a touch risky, and the risk:reward ratio is probably not worth it to split the bet as Dice pointed out.
I'm pretty confident about the Wexford bet. They're a fairly experienced Championship outfit at this stage, whereas Limerick pretty much just peak to be beaten by Kerry or Cork every year before limping out, a favourable draw this year has just pushed it one game farther down the line. The loss of Galvin is hard to overstate, and some of their better players are involved in the hurling setup as well so their focus for this game is somewhat suspect.
I'm in the same boat as yourself with Tyrone/Armagh having just not seen enough of them to confidently call it, although I'd expect Tyrone to come through as well.
@Dice - go ahead and lump on the first bet when you get a chance, TY.
Great picks.
I'd be fairly confident bar the wexford one.
The should get by Limerick but the handicap would sway me.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide to...View Post
any well-thought-out ideas for usage of my remaining 40 euro or should we just pop it back in the kitty for the next round?
Richard Hannon has the fav in the 2:05 @ Ascot. Trainer+jockey's success in 2 year old races is second to none. Won it's first race last time out at first time of asking and ran green that day so improvement should come today over the same distance. Price seems lowest with bet365 though, they have it at 13/8 when it's 2/1 with some places. Pearl Charm btw.
Workforce - 11/8 & should be good enough to see off St Nichola Abbey which leaves about a length to make up on godolphin horse through SYT formline. SYT should have been at least a lenght better on his 2nd run so with ground slightly more in his favour today i expect him to make it up & win.
Tour de France - boils down to todays TT. Evans has just under a minute to make up on andy Schlek over 46km. He wil beat him & it will be close but I expect him to be in Yellow by 10 - 20 secs by the end of today. 6/5.
Couple of other options if you like along with Cafs horse.
Edit - scratch the Cadel Evans bet - he's been backed into 1/2 since last night
Richard Hannon has the fav in the 2:05 @ Ascot. Trainer+jockey's success in 2 year old races is second to none. Won it's first race last time out at first time of asking and ran green that day so improvement should come today over the same distance. Price seems lowest with bet365 though, they have it at 13/8 when it's 2/1 with some places. Pearl Charm btw.
Just throwing it out there is all.
Just on the Hannon/Hughes thing CAF, they get a high enough volume of 2yo winners but it's still a unprofitable system to follow blindly as prices tend to be pretty short and its a negative ROI system over a big sample, not too bad in Spring actually but bad in Summer and Autumn. I know you're not backing blind as you've added extra info but just giving an FYI that his 2yo tend to be a little short in markets.
Worth getting flatstats if you're intersted in compiling reports on jockies/trainer stats.
Just on the Hannon/Hughes thing CAF, they get a high enough volume of 2yo winners but it's still a unprofitable system to follow blindly as prices tend to be pretty short and its a negative ROI system over a big sample, not too bad in Spring actually but bad in Summer and Autumn. I know you're not backing blind as you've added extra info but just giving an FYI that his 2yo tend to be a little short in markets.
Worth getting flatstats if you're intersted in compiling reports on jockies/trainer stats.
Lol apologise, this is complete bollox, I didn't realise I was just looking at Hannon on his own, as a duo they're actually quite successful. As you were
Lol apologise, this is complete bollox, I didn't realise I was just looking at Hannon on his own, as a duo they're actually quite successful. As you were
Lol I had a long post written up vehemently disagreeing with you and lost it. Wp sir
Lol apologise, this is complete bollox, I didn't realise I was just looking at Hannon on his own, as a duo they're actually quite successful. As you were
Interesting one today
CSKA are 1/7 to win but 11/8 -2
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Sorry lads been out of the country the last few weeks. Think the deadlines pretty soon but can't really see anythnig myself. If anyone has a banker for the races (Frankel maybe??) or something else I'm happy for someone else to place my bet if that's cool? I'll try get on tomorrow and if its not ok for someone else to place the bet I'll go with someone's suggestion.
Can we just cash out at the end of a round instead of having to sell? It won't affect the amount we each have to punt the following round and then nobody is going to lose value on having to leave.
Seems crazy to have to sell €89 for €80 to me or if the roll sky-rockets and someone needs to cashout, they might have to sell €1k for €900 and so on.
Can we just cash out at the end of a round instead of having to sell? It won't affect the amount we each have to punt the following round and then nobody is going to lose value on having to leave.
Seems crazy to have to sell €89 for €80 to me or if the roll sky-rockets and someone needs to cashout, they might have to sell €1k for €900 and so on.
Thoughts? Just throwing it out there.
Cashouts diminish the overall betting pool. Also i'd rather not be having cashouts willy-nilly as it will be a pain juggling money from Bet365-Credit Card-Poker Site for transfers.
I suppose we will have to have some policy on cashing out so I would suggest maybe having an option of cashing out at the end of every quarter ( March/June/August/December) ?
Otherwise, you can obviously sell at any point if you like.
If someone wants to cash out at the end of any quarter then they can offer it up for sale first the week before & if they dont get a taker then they can get the cash (same difference to them anyway & it will stop them having to sell at a lower price).
Ya but surely i stand a larger chance of losing all my £100 if i put it all on 1 bet. If i put 10 bets of £10 down its unlikely il go broke in that round of betting.
Its similar to a poker bankroll if i have a 1% roi its v easy to go broke unless im well rolled.
We dont have a clue if the syndicate is +\- roi long run so i guess the more bets in the roll the less chance of going broke.
All 3 are suited to a heavy track and it's raining in Sligo at the moment.
TBF, I'm running like a leper at the moment so Dice, might be an idea to hold off to see how the weather goes.
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All 3 are suited to a heavy track and it's raining in Sligo at the moment.
TBF, I'm running like a leper at the moment so Dice, might be an idea to hold off to see how the weather goes.
Live about 5k from the track but it's pretty nice here. Bright and warm and looking in towards town it doesn't look like there's any difference in there. Just fyi
LOL, typical
was on the phone to a mate down there earlier and he was it was raining
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IMO with €89 to play with we should be sticking to smaller priced options to keep the pool growing.
You should be a politician, Dice
I agree though that Dead Parrots bet looks a little over ambitious though but its a dangerous road to be over critical of each others bets. I mean the original breakthrough was Cafs €20 double on all-weather racing. I can't admit to being too positive when i saw that but I'll admit to donking away €80 on a ridiculous premiership accum bet a few months ago myself.
It was a fairly simple idea initially and has worked out very well so far. Keane has proved very adept on the Gaa accums and Ak donk and loopz are quite clever on the league of ireland using inside information on teams selections to their advantage when placing bets that have an edge.
Regarding cash withdrawls from the pool I feel we should have a target in mind. It has to be said we haven't had a winning bet in a while and probably should have done better this month. Obviously if you can attract a buyer of your own personal share then go ahead but there doesn't seem to have been much of a stampede thus far to buy the share offered.
"Let your boat of life be light, packed with only what you need - a homely home and simple pleasures, one or two friends, worth the name, someone to love and someone to love you, a cat, a dog, and a pipe or two, enough to eat and enough to wear, and a little more than enough to drink; for thirst is a dangerous thing." Jerome K. JeromeThree men in a Boat
tbh, these aren't picks out a hat.
I've read up on each and weather depending are overpriced.
Asiya is a course & distance winner on her last two starts here and has a good draw.
Maarek is a deserved fav and a heavy track would suit
Solo Whisper was a tip from a stable source...confirmed tryer for this one
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tbh, these aren't picks out a hat.
I've read up on each and weather depending are overpriced.
Asiya is a course & distance winner on her last two starts here and has a good draw.
Maarek is a deserved fav and a heavy track would suit
Solo Whisper was a tip from a stable source...confirmed tryer for this one
No probs James, do u want me to stick them on now or check back about 5.30?
sure we'll leave it for the mo and look in later
hopefully it's pissing out
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Yes from a bookies perspective and no from a realistic outcome perspective. Dublin are like England in major championships. The weight of money that goes on them pushes the market into silly prices.
Dublin haven't played in over a month and their last outing was, at best, mediocre. Tyrone, meanwhile, are looking in good shape with a strong mix of youth and experience and a devastating bench to call upon when needs be.
Historically when these teams have played at this stage the team who comes through the qualifiers has won the match. A lot will depend on how the Dublin team lines out. If it's as below I think we have a chance but I think that the strength of Tyrone's bench may win out in the end.
Nice one, pretty much my exact thoughts on it. Like yourself I had the four week layoff for Dublin and the strength of Tyrone's bench as the two biggest swing factors when I was pricing it up.
Can't see a way to make Tyrone any longer than evens at a stretch, while they're available at 6/4 most places.
I'd prefer to be cheering for Dublin (a potential Kerry/Dublin final would be some craic) but I think Tyrone are serious value.
GAA knowledge a bit lacking but from talking to people it does appear to be a bit of a coinflip, so 6/4 about a coinflip is good odds.
Were people not writing Tyrone off when they had to go to Longford recently?
Some people were, but nobody I'd consider to have too vast a knowledge.
Longford made Kerry labour in a qualifier in 2009 before Kerry went on to win the AI, they're a dogged enough outfit.
Since then Tyrone have had a good win over Armagh and a win over Roscommon in a game that they looked in trouble in at half time but ended up running out winners by >10 when the bench players were introduced for the second half.
Dublin's lack of depth in attack is a big worry, as I expect Harte to have the tactical nous as well as the personnel to restrict Bernard Brogan, and without him firing on all cylinders they looked very toothless indeed against Wexford.
If Dublin get the win I expect Alan Brogan to be named MOTM, think he's vital to Dublin's chances.
Sorry, just out of a meeting.
Drop the accum
fire ahead on the rest
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People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
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"Let your boat of life be light, packed with only what you need - a homely home and simple pleasures, one or two friends, worth the name, someone to love and someone to love you, a cat, a dog, and a pipe or two, enough to eat and enough to wear, and a little more than enough to drink; for thirst is a dangerous thing." Jerome K. JeromeThree men in a Boat
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I'll think about the risk:reward for a while before deciding.
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