Originally posted by lee_arama
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UFC/MMA betting thread.
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Have my bets figured out and the value i think lies with Bisping and Nog**..chucking Bader in there as i think he will dominate Jardine.
€40 on Bader 4/7
€20 on Nog evs
€20 on Bisping 13/8
€20 Treble
I like cain but dont think he has the tools to beat Nog as cain wont imo be able to knock NOG out and we all knowthe score if he falls into Nogs guard even though im looking forward to this fight the most .
Bisping to stick and move to a decision over Wanderlei who is looking very predictable recently although to be fair he only has the one gear ...flat out.
FAncy BAder stongly as he looks like a beast and jardine has never liked getting clipped and can be a bit chinny even if it has been at a high level.
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Just back from the weigh in,
shamless brag:Met Randy "The Natural" Couture,
looking at the fighters, Kristoff looks like a lock against Bonnar, he is in fantastic shape. Hugely beefed up since TUF
just placed a bet at 1.6
Total bets: (20 on each)
Krzysztof Soszynski
Joe Stevenson
Bader
Bisping
Nogueira
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostJust back from the weigh in,
shamless brag:Met Randy "The Natural" Couture,
looking at the fighters, Kristoff looks like a lock against Bonnar, he is in fantastic shape. Hugely beefed up since TUF
just placed a bet at 1.6
Total bets: (20 on each)
Krzysztof Soszynski
Joe Stevenson
Bader
Bisping
Nogueira
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Originally posted by Mellor View Post
looking at the fighters, Kristoff looks like a lock against Bonnar, he is in fantastic shape. Hugely beefed up since TUF
And Re: Cro Cop. I reckon Random Aussie Guy AND Cro Cop are happy with the change!
(ps: How did Bisping "Flip off" from the scale?)Last edited by MrStuffins; 20-02-10, 19:23.
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Originally posted by MMA Ace View PostBet you Wanderlei will beat Bisping.
The problem with UFC beting it its hard not to be results based. You have to win your races ,
Cain showed some real power and I was a little disappointed it didn't go on longer.
Not a great set of bets, had a great start with Krystoff and Bader, but Joe Stevens let down and it fell from there. In his defence George Sotiropoulos was immense. That fight meant a lot. Jo Stevenson is now the offical UFC LW gatekeeper, and George is likely near the top of the line for the belt. Frankie Edgar came out of nowhere. Gray Maynard is also up there imo.
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostYup. I thought he's win too (and wanted him to, I hate Bisping). There was a big section in the build up on his training. But you don't bet on who you think'll win, you bet on who the value is. I stand by my pick of Bisping, he was over priced. It was pretty close, one round each going into the third. The burst at the end of the fight secured the win for Wandy.
The problem with UFC beting it its hard not to be results based. You have to win your races ,
Cain showed some real power and I was a little disappointed it didn't go on longer.
Not a great set of bets, had a great start with Krystoff and Bader, but Joe Stevens let down and it fell from there. In his defence George Sotiropoulos was immense. That fight meant a lot. Jo Stevenson is now the offical UFC LW gatekeeper, and George is likely near the top of the line for the belt. Frankie Edgar came out of nowhere. Gray Maynard is also up there imo.
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Originally posted by MMA Ace View PostHave a good trip mate? UFC live is awesome, I've seen it twice live myself.
Was delighted they brought some big names to the Weigh-ins
Met Randy, Gray Maynard, and Sexiyama. Randy isn't as tall as I imagined
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Looking for somebody to take a bet on saturdays fighth for the troops
5 matches - looking for 5/1 ($20)
Lightweight bout: Evan Dunham vs. Melvin Guillard[1]
Heavyweight bout: Matt Mitrione vs. Tim Hague[1]
Featherweight bout: Mark Hominick vs. George Roop[1]
Heavyweight bout: Pat Barry vs. Joey Beltran[1]
Lightweight bout: Cole Miller vs. Matt Wiman[1]
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Originally posted by Jaysoose View PostPaul Daley 6/4 against diaz..fill your boots.
although Paul Daley needs this win more than ever.
Now that Zuffa own Strikeforce, he is in a tight spot.
Welterweight Championship bout: Nick Diaz (c) vs. Paul Daley
Lightweight Championship bout: Gilbert Melendez (c) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri
Light Heavyweight bout: Gegard Mousasi vs. Keith Jardine
Lightweight bout: Shinya Aoki vs. Lyle Beerbohm
Betfair don't have these up, anyone willing to give odds?
Willing to take singles, doubles, trebles etc
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Of course he can win, he is in the top 10 at lightweight
He only has two recent losses to Aoki and Alvarez (who also lost to Aoki). Aoki's only loss in two years is to Menledez
IMO Menledez is the better fighter, but the better fighter doesn't always win, and this is my no means a easy match for him
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostOf course he can win, he is in the top 10 at lightweight
He only has two recent losses to Aoki and Alvarez (who also lost to Aoki). Aoki's only loss in two years is to Menledez
IMO Menledez is the better fighter, but the better fighter doesn't always win, and this is my no means a easy match for him
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostWelterweight Championship bout: Nick Diaz (c) vs. Paul Daley
Lightweight Championship bout: Gilbert Melendez (c) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri
Light Heavyweight bout: Gegard Mousasi vs. Keith Jardine
Lightweight bout: Shinya Aoki vs. Lyle Beerbohm
3 winners correct, Mousasi v Jardine was a draw, barely at that. Scored it 29–27, 28–28, 28–28, if Mousasi hadn't of lost a point it would of been 4 out of 4
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UFC 129
not all fights cover here, but a decent run down of my thoughts
Predictions:
Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson
Henderson coming off a lose against Pettis (the former WEC lightweight champ who lost his belt on the merger). But brought us that WTF moment when he ran up and jumped off the cage to deliver a head kick. Bocek had a recent lose to Jim Miller, but gave the younger of the UFC Siblings his toughest bout yet. It's very close, Bocek is a BJJ blackbelt, with a Blackbelt in Karate, Henderson is a BJJ brown belt with a blackbelt in TKD. It's clsoe but I think this one stays standing and Henderson's striking is best.
Henderson by decision
Light Heavyweight bout: Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida
Looking forward to this one the most. Randy is a hero. Lyoto went from being my favourite fighter to one of my most disliked. He initially was excellant, elusive, great strikes and never got hit. Then he won the belt and he became boring. Shogun ripped him apart and he was never the same. He is on a 2 (well really 3) fight losing streak and needs to win this to stay near the top of the division (or even in the UFC). For Randy, he has nothing to win or lose and he'll still leave it all out there.
Randy fights best as a dirty boxer. Clinch, and control against the cage. A polar opposite to the pounce, strike, evade tactics of "The Dragon". Machida has shown he can hold his own agaisnt powerful fighters like Rampage and I expect him to take the win here. I can't see him leaving it in the hands of the Judges seeing as his two most recent decisions (Shogun & Rampage) were questioned by more than a few people.
Machida by TKO in the 3rd
Featherweight Championship bout: José Aldo (c) vs. Mark Hominick
Jose Aldo finally makes his UFC debut. The UFC worlds is about to see what the MMA world has known for a long time. Aldo is top 3 pound for pound in the world. Unbelievably fast. Unreal striking. And, similar to Anderson Silva, a BJJ black belt that rarely chooses to use these skills. He crippled Faber with leg kicks. I except him to do the same to Hominick, who has left them unchecked before. Follow up with a big head kick, or flying knee to drop him, finishing it on the ground.
Aldo by TKO in the 2nd or 3rd
Welterweight Championship bout: Georges St-Pierre (c) vs. Jake Shields
Jake Shields has a much better chance of winning than the odds suggest. He has unreal BJJ. Or rather American JJ as he refers to it as. GSP is also a black belt, but this is a situation where not all black belts are equal. Their wrestling is probably near equal - Shields is better at dominating on the ground. George has better takedown defence. However, GSP is better everywhere else, faster and definitely has better cardio/stamina.
It terms of striking, GSP is clinical. His double jab ripped Koschek apart. And is well able to throw a head kick. Shields is clunky on his feet, not really looking comfortable striking. He throws look kicks at will, due to a lack of fear of being put on his back.
If shields wants to win, he needs a sub in the first two rounds imo.
I expect GSP to push the pace early, but keep his distance and importantly, keep it standing.
Weighing up everything. I expect GSP to win by 4th or 5th round TKO or decision
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Going for an accum tonight.
GSP vs Shields, GSP should be able to use his wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place. If keeps it standing he picks Shields apart with his striking. If he takes Shields down, he'll play it safe early but if Shields tires he may look to finish. Shields' stand up is poor but he does have great grappling so if he gets GSP down he's in with a chance but I think GSP will be able to avoid submissions and get back to his feet handily enough.
Aldo vs Hominick, Aldo's in another league, too fast and much better everywhere, should finish this.
Henderson vs Bocek, Henderson, strong wrestler with good stand up, will set a strong pace and wear Bocek down and could finish it late on.
Machida vs Couture, as much as I love Randy I just can't see him pulling another fight from the bag, he'll try to hold Machida against the fence and dirty box but he's 48 in two months and I'm not sure he'll be able to get close enough to Machida to get him against the fence without eating a lot of punches and kicks. If he does I think Machida could trip Couture and land up on top. Machida to be too quick for Couture and could KO him.
Diaz vs MacDonald, have been impressed with MacDonald in every fight I've seen him in and is a future star (only 21) but I think Diaz will just have enough and will edge the fight. This fight is the big danger to the accum, so if I can get this one up early I'll be very confident of getting the rest up.
GSP
Aldo
Henderson
Machida
Diaz
just a little more then 5/1
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oh my lord I wanna see these prelims!!
Featherweight bout: Yves Jabouin vs. Pablo Garza
Garza defeated Jabouin via submission (flying triangle choke) at 4:31 of Round 1
Lightweight bout: John Makdessi vs. Kyle Watson
Makdessi defeated Watson via KO (spinning back fist) at 1:27 of Round 3
Middleweight bout: Jason MacDonald vs. Ryan Jensen
MacDonald defeated Jensen via submission (triangle choke) at 1:37 of Round 1
Bantamweight bout: Ivan Menjivar vs. Charlie Valencia
Menjivar defeated Valencia via TKO (elbow and punches) at 1:30 of Round 1
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Originally posted by Insanodude View PostAnyone know a decent stream for the main event!?!
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I'm a pretty new UFC fan and really enjoyed last nights card. Predictions were very good lads.
My fight of the night would have to be Aldo and Hominick. How Hominick continued with that swelling on his head I dont know. The Makdessi spinning back fist was best knockout I reckon, the guy was sparked out for ages.
Bit disappointed with GSPs fight. I really think his left eye caused him major problems and he just did enough to keep his belt. Would love to see him move up the weights and fight Anderson Silva but he didn't seem too keen.
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Originally posted by MMA Ace View PostGoing to go for an accumulator.
Rory McDonald
GSP
Ben Henderson
Aldo
Machida
1 euro returns 6.04 on Paddypower
Going to chuck a tenner on it.
Anyway, if anyone wants to get rich on my predictions go ahead. I've been watching the sport of MMA for years, trained in it, seen many events live and know what I'm talking about.
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Originally posted by MMA Ace View PostI'm raging I did not put this bet on. I've nothing in my Paddy Power account and was very busy yesterday training so could not get to a bookies.
Anyway, if anyone wants to get rich on my predictions go ahead. I've been watching the sport of MMA for years, trained in it, seen many events live and know what I'm talking about.
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostAh go away out of that, you just copied my predictions and added RMD!!!!!
So your predictions were wrong and mine correct??
Anyone who thought Nate Diaz would beat Rory McDonald is insane. He's not that great a fighter, is a natural LIGHTWEGHT and even then not a good one. Rory nearly beat Condit, who's a tough fighter and has massive strength. Rory is also very strong. Nate Diaz is weak for a 170 fighter.
His brother on the other hand is a different story.
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Originally posted by Tony3004 View Postso anyway ive only been watchin UFC for about a year , has there ever been a more spectacular knockout with a kick or have i witnessessed the mother and father of all KOs from macheda.
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Originally posted by MMA Ace View PostSo your predictions were wrong and mine correct??
Anyone who thought Nate Diaz would beat Rory McDonald is insane. He's not that great a fighter, is a natural LIGHTWEGHT and even then not a good one. Rory nearly beat Condit, who's a tough fighter and has massive strength. Rory is also very strong. Nate Diaz is weak for a 170 fighter.
His brother on the other hand is a different story.
I even called how they'd win correct in 3 out of 4 - Aldo going to decision was close, don't know how hominick held on
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Really disapointed that Edgar Maynard is off, but still a great card
Light Heavyweight bout: Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill - Jackson should get the TKO here 1.43
Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson - Mir should win, more experience at top level HW but Nelson is far far better than he looks. He's a BJJ black belt (as is Mir) and be has beaten Mir in a BJJ competiton. Looking at the press conferance, Roy has lost some weight and I'd expect him to last the pace. Very close one, Mir should win, but Roy almost value at 2.16 - well priced market. I'm punting Roy, just because I want him to win
Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve vs. Travis Browne - Travis Browne, a big fucker, standing 6'7", yet is somehow the shorter man by 4" . Struve always looks akward to me, he needs to add mass imo, as msot of his 255lbs are that big ass skeleton Browne to go toe to toe and get the TKO - 1.74
Welterweight bout: Thiago Alves vs. Rick Story - Thiago gonna Alves - 1.5
Middleweight bout: Brian Stann vs. Jorge Santiago - Very close, but think the Iraq vet gets anther W - Stann 1.74
Bantamweight bout: Miguel Torres vs. Demetrious Johnson - This will be fast and furious, Torres is one of the next in line for a title shot (he was previously champ but lost to Bowles who lost to Cruz). Johnson could step up and take the shot from him here. I'm expecting this to be fight of the night. Johnson at 2.0
Middleweight bout: Kendall Grove vs. Tim Boetsch - Kendall Grove, as much as I hate him, he'll prob win 1.62
I won't be making all those bets above some are just to close to call. But it's looking like a cracking card. You nearly would thing it lost its main even.
edit: lol, degen kicks in, backed them all.
If I had money on PP, I like to do a accum for Jackson/Browne/Stann/AlvesLast edited by Mellor; 27-05-11, 00:18.
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TUF 13 Finale is on this weekend, but there isn't any fights I'm excited for really other than Guida vs Pettis which should be good.
The only outstanding value I see on the card is Jeremy Stephens to beat Danny Downes. Stephens is 2/7, but this is seriously the biggest mismatch I have seen at a long time at lightweight. Stephens wins this.
I suppose Fabio Maldonado @ 5/4 to beat Kyle Kingsbury is actually good value as well. He has 2 KO wins over Maiquel Falcao which is good in itself, but also boast and impressive 18-3 record. Fighting cans or no cans that is still impressive. Kingsbury possibly being overrated from the bookies from being on The Ultimate Fighter?
Anyway Maldonado is a solid "underdog" bet here. I wouldn't even call him an underdog as I think he will win.
Will also 2 accumulators for the event.
Grispi, Jorgensen, Maldonado, Stephens @ just over 3/1
& Grispi, Jorgensen, Maldonado, Stephens, Guida @ just over 8/1
Guida @ 5/4 to beat Pettis could a good value bet. 50/50 fight imo. Guida will grind a decision win for me.
I didn't back it, but Guida vs Pettis to go the distance @ 5/6 might be worth a punt. Guida's chin is like a rock and fairly tough to submit. (Only 2 submission losses in UFC by RNC to Florian & Huerta).
Pettis has good KO power, but I think Guida's chin cancels that out, and Guida's wrestling is exceptional so I can't see him taken down to be submitted. Imo he will take Pettis down for the 3 rounds and get the win. So 5/6 is probably good value.
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UDC Live: Marquardt vs. Story
Welterweight bout: Nate Marquardt vs. Rick Story
Marquardt is class. Pretty successful in the 185 division, has beaten lots of guys who were/are contenders. Such a shit division as guys know they will never beat Silva without huge luck. He was never that big and the drop to 170 should be easy for him. Pretty sure GSP was the guys who suggested it to him when they trained together (at around the same weight)
He is a slight underdog, i think this is because guys are a bit lack lustre in their debut at a lower weight. Defo value at 2.17 - prob a decision, but the BF price is muck there
Heavyweight bout: Cheick Kongo vs. Pat Barry
Closest match of my picks. Barry is up and coming, Kongo is old experienced.
kongo can produce when he needs to, and i think fighting an up and coming rather than an established fighter like Mirr will allow him to approach it with confidance and take the win
Congo @ 1.55
Welterweight bout: Matt Brown vs. John Howard
Brown stepping in on short notice for Kampman. Not a whole lot to see here, expect Howard to get the TKO
Brown @ 1.33
Heavyweight bout: Matt Mitrione vs. Christian Morecraft
Meathead gonna meathead. This guy is a bigger version of Chris Leben. He'll just barge through imo. If Skysraper can knockout Morecraft, I expect Meathead to do the same
Mitrione @ 1.37
Preliminary card
Featherweight bout: Tyson Griffin vs. Manvel Gamburyan
Tyson griffin is great, so many fight of the night awards, and Manny is topclass at 145. This should really be a main card fight ahead of Howard/Brown, but Howard can't get dropped after signing a contract. Expect fireworks here. Manny has beaten some serious 145 fighters including Mike Brown abd Garcia. Tyson is on a bad run at the minute. It's really close, and i'm jsut going with Manny as he's a ridic price on betfair
Manny @ 2.70
Featherweight bout: Joe Stevenson vs. Javier Vazquez
I like Joe Daddy, he was a legit contender at 155 deserved a shot and lost to BJ. losses Florian and Sanchez, both no.1 contenders are the time, are not to be ashamed of. But since his loss to Sots at 110 in Sydney, he has failed to show up. I don't know much about Javier, other than his is a BJJ blackbelt from the Grachie team.
I'm leaning towards Javier by sub, no odds availible, no bet placed
Lightweight bout: Joe Lauzon vs. Curt Warburton
Lauzon, is better, more experienced and Warburton was just a local fighter on a UK card who got a few more fights.
Lauzon by TKO, no odds, no bets
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Last edited by Mellor; 27-06-11, 02:47.
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostFeatherweight bout: Tyson Griffin vs. Manvel Gamburyan
Tyson griffin is great, so many fight of the night awards, and Manny is topclass at 145. This should really be a main card fight ahead of Howard/Brown, but Howard can't get dropped after signing a contract. Expect fireworks here. Manny has beaten some serious 145 fighters including Mike Brown abd Garcia. Tyson is on a bad run at the minute. It's really close, and i'm jsut going with Manny as he's a ridic price on betfair
Manny @ 2.70
Featherweight bout: Joe Stevenson vs. Javier Vazquez
I like Joe Daddy, he was a legit contender at 155 deserved a shot and lost to BJ. losses Florian and Sanchez, both no.1 contenders are the time, are not to be ashamed of. But since his loss to Sots at 110 in Sydney, he has failed to show up. I don't know much about Javier, other than his is a BJJ blackbelt from the Grachie team.
I'm leaning towards Javier by sub, no odds availible, no bet placed
Lightweight bout: Joe Lauzon vs. Curt Warburton
Lauzon, is better, more experienced and Warburton was just a local fighter on a UK card who got a few more fights.
Lauzon by TKO, no odds, no bets
Griffin beat Manny, but was really close so feel my bet was justified.
Luckily, I was able to secure a profit seeing as Tyson Griffin was briefly availible at 1.38 after the fight was over. It didn't stay there long. I bought up a decent slice of it
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