Ascot

[Aya14]

Kicks off with a cracking race The Queen Anne.
Goldikova v Paco Boy v Rip Van Winkle and Ougba Zacinta and Dalghar aint bad animals either.
Cant be having RVW without a run since last years bredders cup.

Canford Cliffs takes on Mafki at 3.50 Dick Turpin(9.2 on the fair) is a big price in this,also Steinbeck could be anything if he comes on for the run.


Interesting J.Murtagh chose Zoffany over Samuel Morse in 4.25, R.Moore is a good booking nonetheless.

To sum up my bets on Ascot day1 are
Zoffany(5.2) and Samuel Morse(6.2) small win bets in 4.25

Dick Turpin(9.2) small win and place bet(2.42 for the place) in 3.50

Lay Rip van Winkle win(4.6) and place(1.76)

Thoughts??

[JackBurton]

Now thats a serious days racing!! Some mouthwatering clashes to look forward to.

[JackBurton]

In the Queen Anne its a chance to see the clash of the big three of rip van winkle, goldikova and paco boy. I think the play here is to lay Paco Boy. I just don't think he's as classy as the other two and his form just isnt as strong. The pros for him are; hes a course and distance winner having won here last year, is a now multiple group 1 winner, has a blistering turn of foot and is coming into the race in tip top shape after winning the Lockinge last time out. It's just the horses he is beating arent of sufficient quality to give the form a really solid look towards it for me.

His group 1s have been achieved with horses like ouqba and cesare coming runner up, stack that up against Rips form last year seperating sea the stars and conduit in the eclipse or goldikova and her Breeders cup exploits and paco boys form suddenly looks lacking a bit of strength in depth.

Paco did clash against rip last year at goodwood over a mile and giving rip 8 pounds that day was no match for him with the winning distance being 2 and a half lengths. Off levels tomorrow paco should theoritically be able to turn the tables but it was the manner in which rip put the race to bed that day getting first run and staying on strongly he was able to draw the sting out of pacos known turn of foot. Paco Boy has this tremendous change of gear but if he doesnt hit the lead with this burst he wont outstay a true Group 1 miler Presuming Rip is going to improve from 3 to 4 and be quite probably better this year, then i think that form can be upheld, but their is one big problem, how ready has aidan got him for this, his belated seasonal debut. All his string have badly needed their first run and the horse isnt the easiest to train but we're a couple of months into the season now and there has been plenty of time to get the horse straight for this.

Goldikovas two breeders cup wins is enough to know what sort of animal she is. She comes into this after breaking the track in a group 1 in longchamp and is worthy favourite.

To sum up i if Rip Van Winkle was fully tuned up for this i think he could take it as he will sit on or close to the pace and be able to get first run on the other two who are hold up performers, but because we just wont know how straight he is till after the race i think the safer play is to lay Paco Boy. This will be a lot different to the lockinge. The idea of having the other two running for me is quite appealing.

[Aya14]

Nice write up JB. Your thoughts have me laying both Paco and RVW.

I now think Canford Cliffs cannot be backed now, way too short definate lay.

[JackBurton]

To summarise the race, obv rip DID need the run, he was too free and never settled and his race was run by half way, goldikova took it up a long long way out and was all out to hold paco boy who came with his trade mark burst of acceleration but couldnt overhaul the mare. However i do think the neck that separated them was a bit flattering for paco boy as goldikova was in front for far too long imo. Usually held up herself, she raced more prominently today and hit the lead a good 3 out and was there to be shot at. But she showed how high class she really is and has to be one of the best mares we've seen for a long time.

Hi aya, hope u did go and lay paco and rip, and agree that canford is very short and represents no value. I'm tempted to back makfi to uphold the english 2000 guineas form but this isnt just a two horse race with a couple of flies in the ointment lurking (siyouni, steinbeck , dick turpin). Want to take on canford but cant lay him as he did look very good in irish guineas and seemed to be still progressing.

Will just enjoy the race as a spectacle and have no bet

[Aya14]

Day 2
I really like Alsace Lorraine ew in 3.05 14 ftw and 4 for place.

In 3.50 Byword's victory in St.Cloud in may was pretty impressive and a repeat of that would see off this lot. Twice over hasn't run in nearly 3 months which suggests the horse wasnt right for its run in Meydan. I'd happily lay and place lay though without a recent run.

4.25 Dandy boy is a group horse with a good handicap mark according to trainer D.Marnane and made short work of Mabait last time out, Mabait been proved no mug since then.
Nice ew bet at 10.5

5.00 I think Hannons horse The Sydney Arms is overpriced and worth a punt unlucky and bumped in running when beaten favourite 2 starts back 23 ftw and 5.9 the place.

Token bet on Shakespearean in the first and Timepiece in the lucky last.

[Esprit]

Had a great day with Goldi and Canford.

My bets for tomorrow.

2:30 Ascot - Shakespearean - 2pts @ 9/2 (Bet365)

Extremely impressive last time out winning at Epsom when scoring at the distance over 7f. Was giving weight away all round that day and managed to make all and never looked like losing. He was an impressive 2 year old for Mark Johnston and then moved to Godolphin, Made his debut for them in that race at Epsom wearing a tongue tie for the first time and it seemed to improve him, It's on again today. That was also his first appearance of the season which makes it all the more impressive, He'll come on for having that run and should be well able to take this Group 3 here if all goes well. Drawn right down the middle, Which show up as the best place to be, Should be even more effective with his front running style likely to be ideal. Ground is currently listed as "Good", He's unbeaten on this ground so hopefully it stays the same. As like last time, Frankie takes the ride, I like it when he wins on a horse that he's on for the first time, Doesn't happen very often from what I notice. Shakespearean has won a Group 3 race before, Beating some very decent sorts and should take all the beating tomorrow if running to ability and getting a good break. Tentative enough 2 point selection as it's a tough enough race to call but I'd go in larger if I just had a bit more guts! He'll put up a bold showing for sure. Red Jazz is the obvious danger.

3:05 Ascot - Sahpresa - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

The only Group 1 winner in the field, Has to carry a 5lb penalty for being a Group 1 winner (This is a Group 2) but I'm hoping she'll be an each way bet to nothing. Goes very well fresh and has been ploying her trade in Group 1's of late. All 4 wins have come over this 1 mile trip and she's unbeaten on this good ground. She comes out well on all the speed ratings, Has an extremely good French jockey on board, It's his only ride tomorrow. Not much else I can say about her but seems to have the ability, speed, loves the ground and I doubt she's being sent over from France for no reason. Looks a tasty each way price @ 8/1 if replicating her Group 1 and running whilst fresh form. Antara looks the one to beat if replicating her impressive win at Epsom but I'd rather look for some e/w value for this one, It's a tough one to call but Saphresa could make her class count.

Bypassing the 3:50, Can't call it but if Byword runs like last time he'll win, But I can make claims for too many in it!

4:25 Ascot - Please Sing - .5pts e/w @ 40/1 (Bet365)

Going for a mad outsider for this one, Group winner as a juvenile and shaped well last time out when 4l behind the impressive Antara, Seems a massive price @ 40/1 (Just missed 50's). Ran at this meeting in a listed handicap last year and came third off a mark of 100, Running off 92 tomorrow which looks very fair considering her return to form at Epsom last time. Runs off 8 stone 6lbs tomorrow which could well put her in contention if rekindling some of her old form. Capable jockey on board and will handle the trip and ground no bother. Usually takes a few runs to get the best out of her and she has had three this season and should be fit for this, Drawn high in stall 31 in this massive field, Might sneak a place if getting some luck and running well. Seems a massive price regardless, She'll win a decent race soon at a nice price, Could be tomorrow! Or she could come last.

And another!

5:00 Ascot - Meow - 2pts @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes)

Looked like she could be a very classy filly with the destruction of the field in her last race, Winning by 7 lengths when making all at Tipperary. Very well bred and well related to many winners, Her dam is a multiple Group winner from 5f to 1 mile including Cheveley Park and Temple Stakes. Will like the ground and has Johnny Murtagh taking the ride on her again, He was on her last time out too. Should come on for that last run too and seems to have a great chance at a nice price, Didn't beat much at Tipp but should relish the chance to ploy her trade again these better animals and I think she is the one to beat, Although she's joint 2 fav with most firms. Will take alot of beating once she gets to the front, Tongue tied for the first time too and trained by a top trainer, Will win one of this sort of event soon and hopefully that'll be today. 4/1 looks good value.

[Starvin Marvin]

Had a great day with Goldi and Canford.

My bets for tomorrow.

2:30 Ascot - Shakespearean - 2pts @ 9/2 (Bet365)

3:05 Ascot - Sahpresa - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

4:25 Ascot - Please Sing - .5pts e/w @ 40/1 (Bet365)

5:00 Ascot - Meow - 2pts @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes)

I have reasoning written out for them all elsewhere but I'll not clog up the thread with it.

Most people would like to see the reasoning far more fwiw. I certainly prefer that to a bunch of names and no thinking behind it.

[Esprit]

Sound job, Just a few thoughts that I put up elsewhere. I'm due a poor day soon though.

[npr]

I've said on here a couple of times that Glass Harmonium will be a G1 10f horse this year. I think he is value today e/w for the POW (3.50) at anything more than 8s. Had a skinful @ 16s yesterday. Unfortunately he is pricewise today so the price is collapsing. Still 14s in a couple of places.

I've tipped him here twice. First time he won and last timeout was just an unlucky race. He headbutted the stalls just before they opened and got left 3 lengths. Stoute is a big fan of the horse, just needs a bit of luck to go his way. Only course & distance winner in the race.

[NewApproach]

If byword is in the same form as he was in his last stars then I think the 3/1 available will look very big after the race.

Don't really fancy backing anything else on the card, but Meow is fascinating iiin the QM. Hacked up lto and is certainly bred to be fast!

[Guest]

If byword is in the same form as he was in his last stars then I think the 3/1 available will look very big after the race.

good man!!!
stuck a sly 20 on it after reading this about 30 secs before the off

of course it should have been 100 etc etc

[NewApproach]

good man!!!
stuck a sly 20 on it after reading this about 30 secs before the off

of course it should have been 100 etc etc

20 is better than 0

[npr]

I've said on here a couple of times that Glass Harmonium will be a G1 10f horse this year. I think he is value today e/w for the POW (3.50) at anything more than 8s. Had a skinful @ 16s yesterday. Unfortunately he is pricewise today so the price is collapsing. Still 14s in a couple of places.

I've tipped him here twice. First time he won and last timeout was just an unlucky race. He headbutted the stalls just before they opened and got left 3 lengths. Stoute is a big fan of the horse, just needs a bit of luck to go his way. Only course & distance winner in the race.

Dammit unlucky run again. Fighting for his head early on, lack of pace. Then got checked in the straight. Wouldn't have won but should have been third. Winner should have been backed on Goldikova's form. Well done NewApproach.

[Esprit]

I had a poor day today, All well backed, All lost. Back to the drawing board!

[Caf]

Anyone fancy anything in the next? Haven't been following enough racing these days to make an informed decision.

Edit: The Fallon factor e/w will do for me.

Edit 2: Great ride by Smullen. Murtagh might have went a bit early but it was a cracking finish.

Edit 3: OMFG my bet wasn't placed. don't know what the fuck happened there but oh well, I should have double checked it. Would be seriously sick if Fallon won.

[Aya14]

Anyone fancy anything in the next? Haven't been following enough racing these days to make an informed decision.

Edit: The Fallon factor e/w will do for me.

Edit 2: Great ride by Smullen. Murtagh might have went a bit early but it was a cracking finish.

Edit 3: OMFG my bet wasn't placed. don't know what the fuck happened there but oh well, I should have double checked it. Would be seriously sick if Fallon won.

Great finish Smullen very strong in a finish like that.

[HiCloy]

Not often I see a horse win a flat Group 1 who I backed in their debut in a Galway bumper

[Aya14]

Not often I see a horse win a flat Group 1 who I backed in their debut in a Galway bumper

Yup he's pretty special. Regretting not having a nibble for Melbourne Cup pre Ascot.

[npr]

The heart bleeds:

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse...ra/731848/top/