I have a customer from Fermanagh who knows his GAA. For the last few weeks he has kept on telling me to get on Donegal for Division 2 @ 9s. I haven't got a clue about GAA but wouldn't mind having a nibble, thoughts??
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Originally posted by tipp86 View PostHave Dublin any chance in Cork do ya think Kev?
My syndicate bet was Tipp, Galway & Dublin. Tipp are certs, i highly fancy Galway and i mean Dublin really have to win so i didnt feel the treble was that bad.
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Originally posted by KevIRL View PostGalway @ 8/11 v Waterford and also Galway -1 @ evs v Waterford are easily the stand out bets of the weekend imo.
Apart from home advantage to Waterford, everything else is stacked in Galway's favour - Waterford missing key scoring players Richie Foley (hamstring) and John Mullane (honeymoon), and considering how they struggle to score at the best times its a big big loss for them.
If Galway win they are in the league final and they'll also have a point to prove after the big defeat at home to Tipp last time out, throw in the return of Joe Canning and its stacked for a big Galway score.
Finally Galways record against Waterford in the league is very good, winning the last 6 on the bounce and 19 out of 28 overall.
Am gonna stick a few quid on Galway -3 @ 13/8 as wel actually.
If you do fancy Waterford to spring an upset, then backing Dublin for the league title @ 16/1 is a nice bet, Dublin best placed to benefit should Galay lose and those 16/1 odds would shrink drastically if they did obv
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Originally posted by tipp86 View PostTipp losing was pretty shocking today guess it did not matter anyway for me as Waterford won.
I know what you mean though alright. Very exciting finish to the league all round, Waterford came agonisingly close to a league final (a late Cork free missed if scored would have put us through) despite it looking so unlikely at the start of the day.
Fair play to the Dubs though, nice to see them in a National Final again
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Originally posted by KevIRL View Post
If you do fancy Waterford to spring an upset, then backing Dublin for the league title @ 16/1 is a nice bet, Dublin best placed to benefit should Galay lose and those 16/1 odds would shrink drastically if they did obv
VWP Dublin, serious contenders now
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Guy on the Boards Gambling forum big on Western Gaels this weekend
The following is the reason that I love club gaa betting.
Western Gaels v St. Aidans @4/5
The odds on this game are way off, western gaels should be 1/3 perhaps even 1/4. Every football follower in Roscommon rate western gaels very highly and are definitely second favourites if not even joint favourites to win the championship outright.
Here's the reasons why they're going to beat Aidans by 5+ points.
(1) They boast four of the counties best players,(1) Cathal Cregg (prob best player in roscommon), mom in connaught final last year and one of the only players to perform well against longford in the league final. (2) Kevin Higgins, strong powerful midfielder/centre forward who was roscommon's second top scorer in the nfl scoring 2 goals and 20+ points (3) Seanie McDermott, Roscommon captain for a few years and a fantastic man marker who rarely puts in an average performance. The gaels also have a couple of members of the county u-21 team who made the connaught final this year. (4) Donal Warde, he's only broken into the county team this year but has already cemented a place getting mom against new york a couple of weeks ago.
(2) Aidans are relegation fodder. They play div. 2 league and although they're unbeaten at the top of this league, they've struggled past a lot of the teams in this division who are junior teams at best. There's certainly nowhere near the standard of teams like western gaels in it... Furthermore Aidans struggled to safety last year so they're on a bit of a slippery slope.
(3) The venue. The game is taking place in Kiltoom, easily Roscommon's best club pitch and it's big and open which will suit the Gaels down to a tee as they have lots of fast powerful expansive players.
Once I seen the price I put €50 straight down on it and am considering putting another fifty on it now. 4/5 will definitely be gone by the weekend, if the bookies have any sense it will be anyways.
Get on now, I'm still shocked at the price...
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Originally posted by KevIRL View PostGuy on the Boards Gambling forum big on Western Gaels this weekend
Anyone know any reason not to get stuck in?
Early rounds of championship are dangerous as the stakes are not always that high and the better teams will be aiming to peak at the bussiness end of the championship for example in Tipp hurling so far this year county champions Thurles have been beaten twice, runners up Clonoulty have been beaten as have both beaten semi finalists from last year, its carnage ini the early rounds where its not do or die.
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Originally posted by KevIRL View PostSome seemed clued in others not so much.
I dont know enough about football to comment too much though, and most of the stuff on there is football.
There just seems to be a lot of "Team X are super short this weekend so are a lock", not really great gambling theory like!
I don't really have time to trawl back through the thread and see who's been clued in...
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Originally posted by Keane View PostAny guys in particular you'd respect?
There just seems to be a lot of "Team X are super short this weekend so are a lock", not really great gambling theory like!
I don't really have time to trawl back through the thread and see who's been clued in...
Cant go too much wrong with Bubbleking and New Approach's bets on here though
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Originally posted by Bubbleking View Post@ keane. In general the football punters are LOL. All working off 2nd hand info and not drawing their own lines
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Any ideas for the weekend?
I was thinking of doing something like the below as pretty much a buying money exercise, but it's only paying ~5/4 on PP so it doesn't seem like particularly great value.
Sligo are the only one I'd be any bit worried about coming through though so...
Derry v Fermanagh
Kerry v Tipperary
Cork v Clare
Kildare v Wicklow
Sligo v Leitrim
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Originally posted by Keane View PostDerp, just checked the Sligo team news and they're missing Mark Breheny on top of David Kelly already being out.
Might have to rethink that one, because Sligo don't exactly have too many more scoring forwards. Leitrim at 5/1 starting to look a bit more tempting.
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Originally posted by deyrzuited View PostCan't see Sligo slipping up especially at home. They will be extremely eager to make up for last years disappointment in connacht and the last clash between these two sides in connacht ended in a shock leitrim win in '05. Even without Breheny and Kelly Sligo have more than enough firepower to beat a distinctly average Leitrim side.
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Decent post over on boards about this weekend's Championship opener between Dublin and Offaly:
Originally posted by dotsflanLooking at the early prices for this weekend, I think Dublin will easily cover the handicap against my own county, offaly. Things are not good in the camp. They are missing the whole full back line that played against tipperary last year. These include David Franks and James Rigney, probably the best two defenders in offaly for the last 2-3 years. Their also missing the influential Joe brady at centre forward who will be a big loss against dublin because of the physical element he brings.
Also from chatting some of the players, things are far from rosey within the camp, the majority of the players do not want to play under joe dooley and this is almost certainly going to be his final year in charge
So all in all, I would recommend a bet on Dublin -4 @ 10/11 with bet365 or if your feeling brave go bigger on the alternative handicap. PP are going 21/10 for -8. I cant see offaly being within 10 pts of dublin in croke park. I of course hope they win but in gambling you cant let your heart rule your head
Seems like a decent shout if Dublin are ticking over reasonably well.
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Had a bit of a meh weekend. Had nice winners in Longford and Leitrim beating the Hc but Wicklow not turning up cost me the clean sweep.
Good weekend coming up btw
Originally posted by Keane View Post
Anybody got any news on the Dublin setup to go along with the Offaly news above?
Seems like a decent shout if Dublin are ticking over reasonably well.
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Originally posted by Keane View PostDerp, just checked the Sligo team news and they're missing Mark Breheny on top of David Kelly already being out.
Might have to rethink that one, because Sligo don't exactly have too many more scoring forwards. Leitrim at 5/1 starting to look a bit more tempting.
I didn't pull the trigger on this one either after looking at it for a good while.....sigh
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Originally posted by Bubbleking View PostHad a bit of a meh weekend. Had nice winners in Longford and Leitrim beating the Hc but Wicklow not turning up cost me the clean sweep.
Good weekend coming up btw
One of my biggest ever GAA bets is going on Dublin -4 this weekend. Just waiting on something to confirm
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All aboard the Dublin value train this weekend. -5 @ evs with PP with cracking imo, think on the wide open space of Croker they are gonna stuff an Offaly side in all sorts of trouble after getting relegated despite all the odds. Dublin by 7-9 (4/1) and Dublin by 10-12 (6/1) also worth a look. Dublin to score first, lead at HT and win the match 7/5 is basically a bet on Dublin scoring first. Dublin -10 @ 10/3 on the alternative handicap as well. Choo choo
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Originally posted by KevIRL View PostAll aboard the Dublin value train this weekend. -5 @ evs with PP with cracking imo, think on the wide open space of Croker they are gonna stuff an Offaly side in all sorts of trouble after getting relegated despite all the odds. Dublin by 7-9 (4/1) and Dublin by 10-12 (6/1) also worth a look. Dublin to score first, lead at HT and win the match 7/5 is basically a bet on Dublin scoring first. Dublin -10 @ 10/3 on the alternative handicap as well. Choo choo
Choo choo indeed. Lumpage on the cards
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Id be smashing Dublin to bits at current prices if they were playing Offaly. Alas they are playing Laois - noobs getting the fixtures mixed up Dont really fancy backing the dubs tbh - Laois already had their first championship run out last week which will stand to them a lot. The Dubs are having a "2 part season" if you like they wanted to peak for the league final and then they took 2 weeks off completely before starting with the hard slog again so they might not be firing on all cylinders.
Agree with the Doc Down seem to be a good bet outright at 8/11 and the H'cap is set at -1. Ulster matches are always close enough affairs but I'll be backing Down both ways
London +15 to beat Mayo seems good. Won't be lumping obviously but 15 is way too big. Id imagine the line should be between 9 and 11 - so yeah 10
Next week
Im biased so need someone else to price this up for me but Meath are 13/8 to beat Kildare - opinions on that?
Just as an aside Louth are 9/1 to win Leinster and Westmeath are 16/1. with Meath, Dublin, Kildare and Laois all on the other side of the draw Louth and Westmeath are likely to make up the other semi final pairing so a bet with the intention of laying it off (depending) is a good investment
Roscommon were 7's to win Connaght they are now 3/1
Not touching Munster
Down are 7/2 to win Ulster
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Originally posted by Bubbleking View Post
Im biased so need someone else to price this up for me but Meath are 13/8 to beat Kildare - opinions on that?
my 2cents but obv gonna be a bit biased
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Originally posted by Semibluff View Postits -4 with bet 365 10/11
just think its very hard to be on the right money with dublin, theyll get so much popular public vote
i like down in football
Down look a decent bet alrite...
I'll be sticking them in with
Dublin -3 & Offaly (f.ball) +2
Pays 7/2
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Originally posted by Donk Magnet View Postjust a couple of things on this daryll flynn is back for this game that means a full strength midfield (w/o early of course) this means john doyle will slot back into an attacking role liked the job he done in midfield but obv would be fairly confident we wont be kicking 13 wides with him up front on a side note expecting jams kavanagh back to full fitness and with smithys display think the meath full back line is in for it .
my 2cents but obv gonna be a bit biased
Kavanagh is fit, he was dropped for going on holiday a few weeks ago.
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Originally posted by Bubbleking View Post
Next week
Im biased so need someone else to price this up for me but Meath are 13/8 to beat Kildare - opinions on that?
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Originally posted by Semibluff View Post
Bubble - you missed the whole point that the dublin bet is versus offaly in the hurling . . . Alas!
More cause for optimism from the Offaly chap on the Boards GAA gambling thread..
Originally posted by dotsflantheres talk here in offaly that brian carroll and derek molloy arent fully fit!! if this is true then their also massive losses and the team that ive heard will be starting doesnt look too impressive apart from the full forward line but il try keep ye updates
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Tipp - 3 vs Cork (10/11) also looks very good. Tipp should easily beat Cork, the only slight concern I'd have is that they might not give too much of a shite either way. The retarded way the hurling qualifiers are set up means that whoever loses the first round game in Munster gets a far easier path through the qualifiers - in with the likes of Carlow, Laois, Westmeath etc. Whereas the provincial semi final losers play each other - so in with Galway/Dublin and Wexford more than likely. Still with Tipp having come through the qualifiers last year I can see them wanting to go the more straightforward way this year and should polish off a Cork team very much in transition
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Originally posted by Semibluff View Posti cant seperate offaly and wexford so ill be avoiding that game like the plague
Bubble - you missed the whole point that the dublin bet is versus offaly in the hurling . . . Alas!
dont know enough about the hurling to go punting on it
Originally posted by BallymoreChris View PostKildare will beat Meath imo, price is about right.
Originally posted by BallymoreChris View PostI'm backing the dubs and wexford to beat the handicap.
Also thinking Mayo will beat London by more than 15.
depends what London team turns up tbh. Most of their loses this year have been between 7-11 points and that included some decent teams like Longford and Roscommon but then again they got destroyed by Clare. I suppose a lot depends on how much Mayo want to run up a big score. But London are never too easy in the first round - they've nearly taken a scalp on a few occasions over the last couple of years
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I've heard the London team lineup and its a lot stronger than for any of the league games, believe me. It dpends on weather and other factors, but I wouldn't be backing Mayo to beat the 15 point spread myself, in fact London at 5/6 might tempt me."Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC
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Originally posted by ciarraithuaidh View PostI've heard the London team lineup and its a lot stronger than for any of the league games, believe me. It dpends on weather and other factors, but I wouldn't be backing Mayo to beat the 15 point spread myself, in fact London at 5/6 might tempt me.
Moving on, in football this weekend a Kerry, Cork, Tyrone, Kildare, Dublin straight accum pays 3/1 which seems like money for jam to me. Throwing in Kerry hurlers and Toulouse in Top 14 final and you get 4/1 for a little more value. Be a surprise if any of them lose to be honest, famous last words though."Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC
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This weekend
Limerick v Kerry Kerry are too short at 1/10 but still cant back Limerick at current prices. H'cap may be interesting but it hasnt been set yet. Tbh I'll maybe take Limerick +6 and def take them +7
Kildare v Meath I cant comment. I just cant see the wood from the trees because Im so biased. If I wasnt from Meath I wonder would I see the uber value at 13/8 but it breaks my rule of betting where Im emotionally invested so it doesnt matter
Cork v Waterford Cork unbackable but the mortal lock.
Tyrone v Monaghan again could be interesting in the H'cap. At the moment Monaghan +3 looks about the line
Dublin v Laois Weather depending it will be very interesting to see what the overs/unders line is set at. If the bookies get it wrong here I'll be hammering the overs
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Originally posted by Bubbleking View PostThis weekend
Limerick v Kerry Kerry are too short at 1/10 but still cant back Limerick at current prices. H'cap may be interesting but it hasnt been set yet. Tbh I'll maybe take Limerick +6 and def take them +7
Kildare v Meath I cant comment. I just cant see the wood from the trees because Im so biased. If I wasnt from Meath I wonder would I see the uber value at 13/8 but it breaks my rule of betting where Im emotionally invested so it doesnt matter
Cork v Waterford Cork unbackable but the mortal lock.
Tyrone v Monaghan again could be interesting in the H'cap. At the moment Monaghan +3 looks about the line
Dublin v Laois Weather depending it will be very interesting to see what the overs/unders line is set at. If the bookies get it wrong here I'll be hammering the overs
Wouldn't back Limerick even at +8 or +9 to be honest, and thats not bias..they are already without their main ball winner John Galvin, now Stephen Lucey one of their best defenders is out and another, Mark Riordan is touch & go. Limerick rely on keeping games tight and tough against better teams to get close to them..without those players they will be well beaten IMO.
Cork,I would back up to -13 or thereabouts.
Kildare, should win, but would never discount Meath, especially in a local derby..wouldn't say more than Kildare to win here.
Dublin should beat Laois with a bit to spare...+5 or thereabouts I would take.
Tyrone v Monaghan, most Ulster games are tight enough, but Id give Tyrone a 4/5 point advantage at home in Omagh.
Kerry should win the Christy ring hurling aswell with a few to spare.."Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC
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Kildare v Meath
I think it would be very foolish to be backing Kildare on the basis of the Meath camp being in dissaray! I would originaly have fancied kildare but I've heard Meath are quitley confident of causing an upset and spirits are back up! I also think Kildare are an overrated side!
I'm undecided wether or not i'l be having a bet on this game but if i do it will be on Meath +2/3...
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Originally posted by Bubbleking View PostThis weekend
Limerick v Kerry Kerry are too short at 1/10 but still cant back Limerick at current prices. H'cap may be interesting but it hasnt been set yet. Tbh I'll maybe take Limerick +6 and def take them +7
Kildare v Meath I cant comment. I just cant see the wood from the trees because Im so biased. If I wasnt from Meath I wonder would I see the uber value at 13/8 but it breaks my rule of betting where Im emotionally invested so it doesnt matter
Cork v Waterford Cork unbackable but the mortal lock.
Tyrone v Monaghan again could be interesting in the H'cap. At the moment Monaghan +3 looks about the line
Dublin v Laois Weather depending it will be very interesting to see what the overs/unders line is set at. If the bookies get it wrong here I'll be hammering the overs
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/gaa-sp...9#link_2637238
small bit of value in the overs in the Dublin v Laois match set at 32.5
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