GAA Betting Thread

[Keane]

Meant to post this earlier, but here's my thoughts on tomorrow's games if anybody is interested:

http://www.livegaelic.com/the-proper-punter/gaa-betting-saturday-04th-august/

[Lplate]

Good read. I was swaying towards putting Down in my accum for the weekend, from a value pov more than anything else, as I saw the game as 50/50. I'll sleep on your comments though.
The rest of the accum is straightforward for me, Kerry/Dublin with the handicap/Kildare. Just can't have Cork winning (and the wife is from Kildare).
Obviously, Kerry will be bringing Sam back to his rightful home this year

Meant to post this earlier, but here's my thoughts on tomorrow's games if anybody is interested:

http://www.livegaelic.com/the-proper...y-04th-august/

[BigDeal]

Meant to post this earlier, but here's my thoughts on tomorrow's games if anybody is interested:

http://www.livegaelic.com/the-proper...y-04th-august/

Excellent read, well written, will you be doing a piece on the Kerry/Donegal game?

[Keane]

Excellent read, well written, will you be doing a piece on the Kerry/Donegal game?

Cheers, yeah I'm just working on it at the moment.

[Percy007]

Loving the write ups Keane, keep up the good work. Largish bet for me today on Mayo -2 most of which may have come from my sheer hatred of Down

[Keane]

Loving the write ups Keane, keep up the good work. Largish bet for me today on Mayo -2 most of which may have come from my sheer hatred of Down

Down could win today by 200 points and you still won't be able to convince me that that bet isn't value. I'm not exaggerating when I say Down's results have been as flattering as any set I can think of in any sport.

[Bubbleking]

Down could win today by 200 points and you still won't be able to convince me that that bet isn't value. I'm not exaggerating when I say Down's results have been as flattering as any set I can think of in any sport.

Down may not be as good as the results show but Connaught football is very poor at the moment. Id have it as a no bet tbh

[Donk Magnet]

Down may not be as good as the results show but Connaught football is very poor at the moment. Id have it as a no bet tbh

After seeing Sligo first hand last weekend I would agree with this 100% the standard of football in Connaught is probably at an all time low I think down could grind out a result here in probably the worst fixture of the weekend.

[NoRiverRequired]

After seeing Sligo first hand last weekend I would agree with this 100% the standard of football in Connaught is probably at an all time low I think down could grind out a result here in probably the worst fixture of the weekend.

Agreed their competition in Connaught is piss poor at the moment ,but i watched them down at the Connaught Final and they could have won by 10pts + if they had taken even half their chances.

They have quality all over the side & i think Horan is doing a good job making a team out of them.

I'm backing them (-2) at that price V Down all day.

[MayoPokerTour]

Down may not be as good as the results show but Connaught football is very poor at the moment. Id have it as a no bet tbh

Yes it's poor but what has that got to do with today's match? Absolutley nothing.

[NoRiverRequired]

Yes it's poor but what has that got to do with today's match? Absolutley nothing.

In fairness it does have a bearing on the relative Strengths of the teams.
ie, Down have faced stiffer opposition & thus preperation for this particular game.
You couldnt really say Mayo have been tested properly this year in Connaught.

[MayoPokerTour]

In fairness it does have a bearing on the relative Strengths of the teams.
ie, Down have faced stiffer opposition & thus preperation for this particular game.
You couldnt really say Mayo have been tested properly this year in Connaught.

We played two poor teams and beat them easily, we can do more. Judge us on our performances over the last couple of years outwith Connacht. I just think it's a stock lazy attitude. I'm not judging Dublin on the overall strength of leinster football, i'll judge them by what i have seen.

[Bubbleking]

We played two poor teams and beat them easily, we can do more. Judge us on our performances over the last couple of years outwith Connacht. I just think it's a stock lazy attitude. I'm not judging Dublin on the overall strength of leinster football, i'll judge them by what i have seen.

Do Mayo not implode when they get outside of Connacht every year? Struggled to beat a weak Sligo team who were simply crushed by Kildare. They lack scoring power and dont have a midfield to contend with the big teams

[MayoPokerTour]

Do Mayo not implode when they get outside of Connacht every year? Struggled to beat a weak Sligo team who were simply crushed by Kildare. They lack scoring power and dont have a midfield to contend with the big teams

2011 - beat Cork in Quarter Final, lost to Kerry in semis
2009 - lost by 3 points to meath
2008 - lost by 1 point to tyrone
2007 - beat Dublin, drew with and beat Laois

Last 6 c'ship games in Croker - 7 games, 3 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats. Hardly a disastrous record is it? Certainly not an implosion. Also our league record is up there with the best of them these last few seasons. You know..... the league where we play teams outside Connacht. I'm not bigging Mayo up in any way btw, think we'll win today but dont see us going any further.

Also, beat kerry in Croke Park in theis years nfl semi final. Ya i know league is different from c'ship etc etc bt you cant just ignore results like that

[Guest]

Mayos problem for years is an obvious one putting possession into scores.
Bring back Liam Mchale and Ciaran Macdonald.

I also find Mayo people very weird esp from Bellmullet and Achill

[MayoPokerTour]

Mayos problem for years is an obvious one putting possession into scores.
Bring back Liam Mchale and Ciaran Macdonald.

I also find Mayo people very weird esp from Bellmullet and Achill

McHale for getting scores?

[Guest]

McHale for getting scores?

Im talking rubbish sorry father is Mayo man and grandmother was a Mchale but mayo have been very poor in so many finals.
Dont think anyone would begrudge them a football all ireland.

[MayoPokerTour]

Mayos problem for years is an obvious one putting possession into scores.
Bring back Liam Mchale and Ciaran Macdonald.

I also find Mayo people very weird esp from Bellmullet and Achill

no arguments from me on this

[Guest]

Mayos problem for years is an obvious one putting possession into scores.
Bring back Liam Mchale and Ciaran Macdonald.

I also find Mayo people very weird esp from Bellmullet and Achill

Mayo looking very good scoring at will 2 -7 half time down defence is in bits.

[Keane]

I'm in the hill here just got in a few minutes before half time, looking decent alright. The view from the hill is super in fairness, first time in here since it was redone.

[The Situation]

Good shout again Keane

[Keane]

Nasty looking injury for Andy Moran unfortunately.

[RoadSweeper]

Nasty looking injury for Andy Moran unfortunately.

Hope he is okay for semis. Super super player.

[Keane]

Hope he is okay for semis. Super super player.

Looked like ligaments unfortunately. He's got rotten luck.

[Keane]

Also worth asking, what does that result say about the furore over Donegal?

[Keane]

No idea who the guy wearing 11 for Dublin is. Don't see Alan Brogan anywhere.

[Keane]

Looks like he's wearing 21 actually.

[The Situation]

Looks like he's wearing 21 actually.

connolly

[RoadSweeper]

Anyone find the colours confusing on TV?

[Keane]

connolly

Nah it was Davy Byrne.

Dublin goal was some shambles!

[Donk Magnet]

Nah it was Davy Byrne.

Dublin goal was some shambles!

Tbf Dublin are a shambles

[Keane]

Scoooop!

[NoRiverRequired]

Scoooop!

WP nice reads

[Keane]

Added tomorrow's two games' previews to the column for anyone who hasn't seen them:

http://www.livegaelic.com/the-proper-punter/gaa-betting-saturday-sunday-04th-05th-august/

[KevIRL]

Posted this in BBV by mistake

Genuinely shocked to see Tipp are 6/4 v Kilkenny for the hurling semi final

Snappage.

[eamonhonda]

@ Keane or Kev what ya reckon the bookies will have mayo at v dublin?

[Lplate]

Added tomorrow's two games' previews to the column for anyone who hasn't seen them:

http://www.livegaelic.com/the-proper...h-05th-august/

Don't know why I haven't clicked on the link before, very good analysis and good read.

[KevIRL]

@ Keane or Kev what ya reckon the bookies will have mayo at v dublin?

No clue. Football clueless, I just follow Keane

[RoadSweeper]

@ Keane or Kev what ya reckon the bookies will have mayo at v dublin?

http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/gaelic-games/gaelic-football/dublin-v-mayo/winner

[KevIRL]

Cork v Galway

Been impressed with how Galway have kept the lid on the hype and expectations following the win against Kilkenny, Cunningham seems to have them well organised and while there's always the chance of them blowing hot and cold on successive match days in true Galway fashion I think they will win this with a bit to spare. Galway -3 (evs) is my main bet. Can also see a number of goals in this one, both defenses can be a bit suspect, but Galway with a much stronger full forward line, like the look of Galway over 1.5 goals (4/6), Galway over 2.5 goals (15/8), and total goals over 3.5 (evs)

The prices above are PP, I'm sure there are better out there but I'm not arsed looking

Edit to add, someone on Boards pointed out Johnny Coen @ 28/1 is a nice shout for MOTM, I'd agree, he was great v KK and didnt get it that day so another big performance and he could very well pick it up

[premierstone]

Edit to add, someone on Boards pointed out Johnny Coen @ 28/1 is a nice shout for MOTM, I'd agree, he was great v KK and didnt get it that day so another big performance and he could very well pick it up

Problem with that is for him to win Galway have to win and if Galway win and Joe Canning manages to successfully tie he's shoe laces that morning he gets it

[Keane]

I've done a little update of how some of the Irish players over in the AFL have been getting on over the last couple of weeks here if anybody is interested:

http://www.livegaelic.com/irish-experiment/the-irish-experiment-15082012/

[Semibluff]

What we think of the hurling this weekend?

Surely its the all ireland final itself. Galway will brick it versus these top 2? (awaiting reminder of leinster final score)

[The Situation]

Linky not working. The site isn't sure what I'm looking for. I just want to read about Irish players abroad, no need for it to get all suspicious on me!

[Keane]

Linky not working. The site isn't sure what I'm looking for. I just want to read about Irish players abroad, no need for it to get all suspicious on me!

Should be fixed now!

[KevIRL]

What we think of the hurling this weekend?

Surely its the all ireland final itself. Galway will brick it versus these top 2? (awaiting reminder of leinster final score)

Tipp to win. More detailed thoughts to follow later in the week

Talk in KK of a senior member of the panel dropped from the team (would back up something I was suprised to see myself up there on Sat night) and Kieran Joyce keeping his place with one eye on him marking Canning in an AI final.

[Keane]

Yeah I was very surprised to see Tipp as long as 13/8 myself, a lot of serious players starting to come back for KK as well though.

Moar details on the in-camp controversy pleez!

[KevIRL]

PP have a money back special on the KK-Tipp match. Money back on all losing match bets if your team loses by 1 point. Interesting as its not the usual goalscorer bets refunded crap, and also this one is likely to be close.

As I mentioned earlier I like Tipp, PP have them @ 6/4, am surprised they arent favourites tbh. They've looked very good this year, quietly but confidently going about getting over every obstacle, importantly got a scare early on v Limerick, and then 2 competitive games v Cork and Waterford, a big change from last year when they made the AI semi final almost too easily. They have a remarkable strength in depth and have shown already they arent afraid to get them into action early if required. Always risky backing against KK, but they dont look as strong this year, seem to be overly relying on their big guns messrs Delaney, Walsh, Fennelly and Shefflin, and if these guys all play well they will be tough to beat, but I think there is some great value in Tipp here

[KevIRL]

Got sent this earlier

Bet365 have odds for the top scorer in the hurling but they have'nt took out the cork player.

they have Shefflin at 5/1 ..PP have him at 10/11

http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/gaelic-games/hurling/all-ireland-senior-hurling-championship/top-scorer

RankPlayerCountyTallyTotalMatchesAverage1Shane DowlingLimerick4-374959.802Patrick HorganCork1-424559.003Joe CanningGalway1-3235311.664Henry ShefflinKilkenny3-2433311.00Shane DooleyOffaly4-2133311.006Willie HylandLaois1-262939.66

[tipp86]

19 points in 2 games.

10/11 is a horrific price on PP.

[HiCloy]

10 points for Shefflin, needs to score 7 and not have canning score more than 8 more than him in the final to get top scorer. Dead heat rules I assume for 6

[kenttheking]

PP have a money back special on the KK-Tipp match. Money back on all losing match bets if your team loses by 1 point. Interesting as its not the usual goalscorer bets refunded crap, and also this one is likely to be close.

As I mentioned earlier I like Tipp, PP have them @ 6/4, am surprised they arent favourites tbh. They've looked very good this year, quietly but confidently going about getting over every obstacle, importantly got a scare early on v Limerick, and then 2 competitive games v Cork and Waterford, a big change from last year when they made the AI semi final almost too easily. They have a remarkable strength in depth and have shown already they arent afraid to get them into action early if required. Always risky backing against KK, but they dont look as strong this year, seem to be overly relying on their big guns messrs Delaney, Walsh, Fennelly and Shefflin, and if these guys all play well they will be tough to beat, but I think there is some great value in Tipp here

ANOTHER awesome display by the greatest team of all time words cant describe this team 7 finals in a row 13 out of the last fifteen brillant stuff as they say down our way beware the wounded cat.

[tipp86]

Anyone think Joe canning for hurler of the year at 5/2 is excellent value. I mean even if Galway lose id fancy him to get it as a consolation. He really just needs to have an average game in the final really.

[Keane]

We got an interview with Aaron Kernan the other day, think it's a really good piece. Check it out:

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/livegaelic-exclusive-interview-with-aaron-kernan/

[Keane]

Here's my latest betting column for the website if anyone cares to take a look:

http://www.livegaelic.com/the-proper-punter/all-ireland-football-semi-finals-betting-tips-donegal-vs-cork/

[Semibluff]

We got an interview with Aaron Kernan the other day, think it's a really good piece. Check it out:

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/l...-aaron-kernan/

very intelligent fella - really enjoyed talking with him.

[Keane]

Donegal wow

[horatio1]

Hey Keane,
Enjoyed the website review of tomorrows match.As a Dub I hope you are right but I am very worried about this one.Playing Fennel/Bastick/Macauley doesnt work. We got away with it against inferior midfields (Meath even had to bring big Joe out) with Macauley sweeping up the breaking ball.If Mayos taller midfield show up and catch good ball tomorrow it could make Macauley reduntant and I would be suprised if Fennell and Bastick are both still on the pitch after 25 mins.
The other problem is the 6 forwards (or 3 in Dublins case). Can anyone remember Bryan Cullen having an influential moment in this years SFC ? Paul Flynn has a relentless workrate but rarely gets more than 1 pt a game. Macauley will be in midfield and will probably burst through and punch one over the bar but he cant kick the Ball.Will Alan last and will Bernard show up ? As for Connoly, Well I was disgusted Gilroy let him back in the panel never mind the team after he continues to put results in jeopardy by his loss of control in pressure situations.He had the game of his life against Tyrone last year but Dublin bossed that match from the start without ever coming under pressure. So basically it boils down to if the Brogans are fit and on form.
If they are and Dublin get away to an Early lead ,they might run riot, however I am leaning more to Mayo getting on top in Midfield and by the time Gilroy makes changes Mayo could have a handy lead by half time.Ths could lead to Dublin panicking and a lack of discipline that could see a player sent off.Having been forced to make 1st half changes , there maybe little in the way of fresh legs to chase down the lead and Mayo could run out easy winners.

p.s. What do you feel on the minors Keane,

[eamonhonda]

Fuck it I'm on mayo -4 for a small one.

[horatio1]

looked at that exact bet myself Honda but I dont think I could bring myself to do it! I know you should seperate the heart from the head when it comes to punting but I dont think I would enjoy spending it !