GAA Betting Thread

[KevIRL]

pretty much all the above kev.

n1. Done that and Dublin +1.5gls @ 6/5.

[ciarraithuaidh]

Dublin/Kildare/Armagh treble is just over evens on Hills...worth a punt.

[kaiser soze]

Went for Armagh-2 at 5-6 and Kildare -4 at 5/6 abit worried about Kildare handicap

[Donk Magnet]

Went for Armagh-2 at 5-6 and Kildare -4 at 5/6 abit worried about Kildare handicap

I think you should worry about Armagh lol.

[Donk Magnet]

Lolbad Kildare were but credit where it's due wp meath.

[kenttheking]

COME ON WEXFORD

[KevIRL]

n1. Done that and Dublin +1.5gls @ 6/5.

Always trust de Dubs

[kenttheking]

W T F were wexford at left it behind them

[tipp86]

Kerry 5/2 for Munster final do you see any value in it Keane. Id admit our boys are probably slightly better but I dont believe there is a whole lot in it. A lot of them have the distraction of a munster hurling final to deal with aswell.

[bustamoves]

Kerry 5/2 for Munster final do you see any value in it Keane. Id admit our boys are probably slightly better but I dont believe there is a whole lot in it. A lot of them have the distraction of a munster hurling final to deal with aswell.

i saw the prices there too and did wonder. i'm curious too. kerry minors 5/2 dogs in a munster final vs tipperary, how times have changed.

i know the tipp minors last year have alot of the same panel so they must be very strong but can they seriously be considered that superior to kerry?

if i am not mistaken was there a suggestion made on here (by keane perhaps) that kerry did NOT want to win their earlier match vs tipp as it would mean a harder route to Munster Final or something to that effect.

anyway history is NOT on tipp's side with them having played 41 times in the mfc where kerry have won 31, drawn 4 and lost 6!

[ciarraithuaidh]

i saw the prices there too and did wonder. i'm curious too. kerry minors 5/2 dogs in a munster final vs tipperary, how times have changed.

i know the tipp minors last year have alot of the same panel so they must be very strong but can they seriously be considered that superior to kerry?

if i am not mistaken was there a suggestion made on here (by keane perhaps) that kerry did NOT want to win their earlier match vs tipp as it would mean a harder route to Munster Final or something to that effect.

anyway history is NOT on tipp's side with them having played 41 times in the mfc where kerry have won 31, drawn 4 and lost 6!

FWIW, IMO those odds are a little too high for Kerry, who look to have improved from the first encounter between the sides, but...Tipp are still worthy favourites given the amount of last years team still available. Kerry have been dealt a bit of a blow with the loss of a starting defender this week aswell and were stretched already at the back. I'll have to have a little on Kerry on those odds to be honest as we have the forwards to cause damge so shouldn't be that big a price.

[Keane]

As far as I can remember Tipp were 11/10 for the first meeting and as has been said with question marks over Kerry's motivation that day under question along with the fact that they're picking a stronger side in subsequent games it's hard to believe the price of 5/2 isn't too big a reaction.

[Keane]

Who's the missing defender CT?

[Semibluff]

think there is a massive over-reaction to teams getting knocked out of their provincials.

Kildare poor in one game. We know they are better than that.
Same said for Kerry.

They get easy qualifier draws and WILL be in the mix come a few weeks time. Mentally the "kick up the arse" may do them the world of good too.

I like both outright for a little, especially Kerry.

Whats Sheehans situation?

[Keane]

think there is a massive over-reaction to teams getting knocked out of their provincials.

Kildare poor in one game. We know they are better than that.
Same said for Kerry.

They get easy qualifier draws and WILL be in the mix come a few weeks time. Mentally the "kick up the arse" may do them the world of good too.

I like both outright for a little, especially Kerry.

Whats Sheehans situation?

He's fit, played in a challenge against Sligo last week.

Agreed on the lolworthiness of the reaction to individuals games. You can see it all over the media, from Ewan McKenna's power rankings every couple of weeks, Kevin McStay on the Sunday game and more besides have all gone from Dublin being behind Kerry and Cork, to Dublin being the clear standout team just ahead of Cork with Kerry nowhere after one game for each team (Dublin vs Louth FFS), back to Dublin being back in the pack with Cork the clear standouts and Kerry still nowhere after one further game.

They have at last also all come to an accurate opinion on Donegal's ability, but will no doubt jump manically off it if they put in an above or below expectation performance against Down in the Ulster final.

[Keane]

O'Keeffe, meanwhile, confirmed that Bryan Sheehan featured for the Kingdom in a challenge win over Sligo on Sunday and should be available for the trip to Mullingar.

Sheehan missed the Munster semi-final defeat to Cork due to a knee injury he aggravated in the win over Tipperary.

http://www.hoganstand.com/ArticleForm.aspx?ID=172628

[ciarraithuaidh]

Who's the missing defender CT?

Ronan Murphy from Beaufort, had been a mainstay at centre back.

Those odds are too good to pass up even though Tipp are much stronger (and bigger) around the middle. We have a few knacky towny forwards which always gives you a chance! Conor Keane, Cillian Fitz and ye're lad Savage have impressed me.

[Keane]

Ronan Murphy from Beaufort, had been a mainstay at centre back.

Those odds are too good to pass up even though Tipp are much stronger (and bigger) around the middle. We have a few knacky towny forwards which always gives you a chance! Conor Keane, Cillian Fitz and ye're lad Savage have impressed me.

Is Niall Sheehy from the Mitchells playing at centre field? What's he like if so?

[ciarraithuaidh]

Is Niall Sheehy from the Mitchells playing at centre field? What's he like if so?

Well he didn't start the Clare game anyway..came on near the end alright. Had heard big things about him (what with the pedigree etc), but he hasn't done it so far..meant to have been struggling with injury for a while, so who knows.

[Keane]

Well he didn't start the Clare game anyway..came on near the end alright. Had heard big things about him (what with the pedigree etc), but he hasn't done it so far..meant to have been struggling with injury for a while, so who knows.

Yeah serious pedigree alright. I know Niall a little bit through his older brother and his old man who is a close friend of my own father's so would like to see him doing well.

[Arazi]

Kerry would be ranked alot higher and have a much greater chance of success if it wasnt for the unease and devastation caused amongst the panel by Jack O'Connor's wandering cock!

[Keane]

Kerry would be ranked alot higher and have a much greater chance of success if it wasnt for the unease and devastation caused amongst the panel by Jack O'Connor's wandering cock!

I assume this pointed (*ahem*) remark is directed my way!?

[bustamoves]

Munster football Final Clare v Cork

Paddypower giving even money for Clare +12 points vs Cork

12 points HOLY SHIT.

I had envisaged a 7 or 8 point handicap for this game but i guess i'm just being over optimistic about my home county's chances.

Any thoughts guys? Clare only conceded 2 goals in all of the league, granted it was Division 4 opposition but if Cork dont bang in goals surely 12 points is a bit generous. Of course it's the big IF. My brother who is more in tune with things on the Clare front does reckon however that our full back line (and backs in general) are porous from what he saw of the Limerick Clare match in Gaelic grounds so perhaps the bookmakers reckon Cork are good for a few it appears.

Thoughts?

[Keane]

Cork have some of the best and most in form forwards in the country so yeah they're probably capable of putting up a massive score.

If you could guarantee that the Clare players would fight tooth and nail for every ball from beginning to end then 12 points is a big spread to cover but realistically if they're eight behind with ten or fifteen minutes to go it's impossible to know which team is going to keep at it or coast it out.

Avoid these huge handicaps either way is mostly sound advice IMO.

[Arazi]

I assume this pointed (*ahem*) remark is directed my way!?

nah just a general remark to all interested parties.

[KevIRL]

Whats the handicap in the Cork-Offaly hurling pls?

[bustamoves]

Cork have some of the best and most in form forwards in the country so yeah they're probably capable of putting up a massive score.

If you could guarantee that the Clare players would fight tooth and nail for every ball from beginning to end then 12 points is a big spread to cover but realistically if they're eight behind with ten or fifteen minutes to go it's impossible to know which team is going to keep at it or coast it out.

Avoid these huge handicaps either way is mostly sound advice IMO.

Does anyone agree when I say I can see them (paddypower/bookies) getting plenty of action on the clare +12 side but as alot less on the Cork -12 side ....but maybe that's what they want!

Normally bookies want equal liability on each side of the handicap but there are some cases where they dont actually i've come to understand/learn (could this be one??)

..and you say avoid these big handicap games as sound advice...but isnt it equally as risky if not a riskier proposition for the layers???

[Keane]

Whats the handicap in the Cork-Offaly hurling pls?

8 point spread.

[Keane]

Does anyone agree when I say I can see them (paddypower/bookies) getting plenty of action on the clare +12 side but as alot less on the Cork -12 side ....but maybe that's what they want!

Normally bookies want equal liability on each side of the handicap but there are some cases where they dont actually i've come to understand/learn (could this be one??)

If I had to guess I'd expect the plus to get hit more heavily than the minus alright, but hard to know. Donk Magnet had a winner backing an equally big minus in the Kildare Offaly game a few weeks ago so maybe people back them more than I thought they do.

..and you say avoid these big handicap games as sound advice...but isnt it equally as risky if not a riskier proposition for the layers???

I guess the thing is if you're Paddy Power or any of the rest of them you don't have any choice but to offer a market for a game as big as a Munster final!

[KevIRL]

8 point spread.

hmmm Offaly +8 worth a punt for sure. Dont think they'll win, but they have something of a tradition now of bouncing back from getting dumped out of Leinster with a strong showing in their next qualifier match

[premierstone]

Kilkenny -6 against Galway is a steal. Galway have conceded 4-13 to Westmeath and 3-15 to Offaly. The KK forwards will have much more stealth that the pick of Wesmeath or Offaly. Along with that the KK defence will keep a tighter lid on the Galway forwards. KK to win by 10 or more.

Its about right imo, the Westmeath and Offaly games are totally irrelevenat, they were nothing more than glorified challenge matches where Galway racked up massive scores at the other end aswell, no-one was marking anyone in either game and they were both over as a contest after 20 mins, KK have a very long 'potential'' injury list aswell, I would wait untill they announce a team before commiting any money on this game.

[Foxy]

Some of the lads in our club were on the minor in the county the last couple of years and we went to see the game against Tipp last year. Tipp were outstanding. They steamrolled through the championship last year, plus they bet Kerry last year and have kept the bulk of the squad the same. Hard to see past tipp in this one

[tipp86]

tj ryan was man of the match in last years final and rumour has it he's back match fit and could be in the shake up.

Ian Fahey did not start against Cork and i think he is fit. He is a huge bonus.

As much as i admit 5/2 is big i cant see us lose this.

[ciarraithuaidh]

F.A.O Keane..and interested others.

http://www.kerrygaa.ie/news.php?item=482&full=y

Sheehy starting full forward. Pat O'Shea's son Gavin has forced his way in at corner forward aswell.

[tipp86]

Tipp team

1. Evan Comerford (Clonmel Commercials)

2. Darren Cass (Clonmel Commercials)
3. James Feehan (Killeneule)
4. Lorcan Egan (Loughmore Castleiney)

5. Kevin Fahey (Clonmel Commercials)
6. Dylan Fitzelle (Cashel King Cormacs) CAPTAIN
7. Bill Maher (Kilsheelan Kilcash)

8. Steven O’Brien (Ballina)
9. Ian Fahey (Clonmel Commercials)

10. Jason Lonergan (Clonmel Commercials)
11. John Martin (Ballyporeen)
12. Greg Henry (Killenaule)

13. Colman Kennedy (Clonmel Commercials)
14. Philip Quirke (Moyle Rovers)
15. Tom Kirwan (Ardfinnan)

[KevIRL]

A sort of hurling preview of this weekend.

Clare v Dublin.
This one is a bit of a humdinger. Dublin have only won 2 competitive games since losing last years Leinster hurling final. One of which was against a hapless Laois side. However they played well in this years league, could consider themselves unlucky to be relegated, then they completely fell flat against KK last time out. when many (including myself) thought they would put it up to the cats, Keaney missing as well. A lot will depend for them on the first 15 mins I reckon. On the other side you have Clare with the massive advantage of playing at home, Cusack Park is never an easy place to visit and they will be out to put in a big performance. Will Davy's short passing, possesion philosophy pay off? A big factor in the outcome of this game will be how the resepective managers have the teams ready mentally for the game, I felt last time out Daly had the Dublin lads overhyped which resulted in a lot of silly frees.

Betting wise I think its simply too close to call. It could very well be low scoring and I'll probably take the under 42.5pts (10/11). Couple of Dublin players points that I think are worth taking for over 1.5pts - Danny Sutcliffe (4/7) and Liam Rushe (8/13). If I absolutely had to take a position on the handicap I'd go with Clare +1 but reluctantly

Cork v Offaly
Taking a bit of a risk here given how results have gone thus far this year in the hurling qualifiers. The heavy favourites have won handily each time. However I think that in this game Offaly +8 @ 11/10 is a cracking bet. Offaly have something of a tradition of bouncing back from heavy defeats in Leinster with a strong performance in the qualifiers and I think they will be no pushovers here. It will be hard for Cork to pick up the same level of intensity as they had v Tipp in what was effectively the Munster Final. I still fancy Cork to win it, and make the semi finals at least, however am liking the handicap head start for Offaly here. One thats worth a punt on here is No Cork Goals @ 13/2. They are v good at knocking over points and often quite happy to 'take the points and let the goals look after themselves' as the saying goes. Worth a small bet imo

Kilkenny v Galway
Am gonna head up to this as an interested nuetral. Has the potential to be a great game. The key to it being anyway close going into the final quarter is if Galway can somehow stop KK from their usual efforts to kill the game off early on by banging in a couple of goals in quick succession. How many times have we seen them do this and effectively end the game as a contest by HT. This would be a big worry for Galway considering the goals already conceded v Westmeath (4) and Offaly (3). On the plus side for them, they are raising plenty of green flags. Can they exploit Noel Hickey at full back though? He's back in with JJ Delaney injured.

Gonna go with Galway +7 @ 10/11 in the handicap. Opposing KK in any form is a mugs game, but here I go again. I think Galway will put up a much better showing than Dublin did and be competitive here. Perhaps I'm wishing this though

In the football I'm gonna take Cork only team to score a goal (6/5) and join the Kerry minor backers @ 5/2

Should be a good weekends hurling, am disappointed that both qualifiers arent live on TV, pretty idiotic decision from the GAA to only allow one qualifier match per round to be shown. These are knock out games and would be great to be able to see both, especially considering that most provincial semi finals (and quarter finals in football) end up being shown and these are no longer do or die matches for the teams

[burkeyoa]

Anyone able to find any handicap betting for tomorrows ulster hurling final between antrim an derry? Paddy Power are going 1/6 antrim win but no handicap betting available.

[tipp86]

That Cork game seemed like a great game on the radio as kev said pity they dont show more than one game.

[kpnuts]

Anyone able to find any handicap betting for tomorrows ulster hurling final between antrim an derry? Paddy Power are going 1/6 antrim win but no handicap betting available.

Boyles +/-5pts 10/11

[terryl]

any jobs in boyles r paddy powers going?fell free to pm me.

[terryl]

had clare -2 @21/10,bit of a sweat with man been sent off but got there.

[burkeyoa]

Boyles +/-5pts 10/11

Cheers. Anyone know if boyle offer an alternative handicap? Antrim are nailed on at 10/11 -6 currently available at boyles. After coming off the back of the tanking last week they will want to end on a high and they will be far to strong for derry. Its a full team antrim have out and i expect them to win by 15points and could be more depending on how ruthless they will be in taking their chances. If anyone finds anywhere offering the alternative handicap please let me know cheers.

[tipp86]

Tipp looking good in the minor.

[kpnuts]

Cheers. Anyone know if boyle offer an alternative handicap? Antrim are nailed on at 10/11 -6 currently available at boyles. After coming off the back of the tanking last week they will want to end on a high and they will be far to strong for derry. Its a full team antrim have out and i expect them to win by 15points and could be more depending on how ruthless they will be in taking their chances. If anyone finds anywhere offering the alternative handicap please let me know cheers.

WP burkeyoa. 2 tremendously accurate previews in consecutive weekends. Hope you've cleaned up

[KevIRL]

A sort of hurling preview of this weekend.

Clare v Dublin.
This one is a bit of a humdinger. Dublin have only won 2 competitive games since losing last years Leinster hurling final. One of which was against a hapless Laois side. However they played well in this years league, could consider themselves unlucky to be relegated, then they completely fell flat against KK last time out. when many (including myself) thought they would put it up to the cats, Keaney missing as well. A lot will depend for them on the first 15 mins I reckon. On the other side you have Clare with the massive advantage of playing at home, Cusack Park is never an easy place to visit and they will be out to put in a big performance. Will Davy's short passing, possesion philosophy pay off? A big factor in the outcome of this game will be how the resepective managers have the teams ready mentally for the game, I felt last time out Daly had the Dublin lads overhyped which resulted in a lot of silly frees.

Betting wise I think its simply too close to call. It could very well be low scoring and I'll probably take the under 42.5pts (10/11). Couple of Dublin players points that I think are worth taking for over 1.5pts - Danny Sutcliffe (4/7) and Liam Rushe (8/13). If I absolutely had to take a position on the handicap I'd go with Clare +1 but reluctantly

Cork v Offaly
Taking a bit of a risk here given how results have gone thus far this year in the hurling qualifiers. The heavy favourites have won handily each time. However I think that in this game Offaly +8 @ 11/10 is a cracking bet. Offaly have something of a tradition of bouncing back from heavy defeats in Leinster with a strong performance in the qualifiers and I think they will be no pushovers here. It will be hard for Cork to pick up the same level of intensity as they had v Tipp in what was effectively the Munster Final. I still fancy Cork to win it, and make the semi finals at least, however am liking the handicap head start for Offaly here. One thats worth a punt on here is No Cork Goals @ 13/2. They are v good at knocking over points and often quite happy to 'take the points and let the goals look after themselves' as the saying goes. Worth a small bet imo

Kilkenny v Galway
Am gonna head up to this as an interested nuetral. Has the potential to be a great game. The key to it being anyway close going into the final quarter is if Galway can somehow stop KK from their usual efforts to kill the game off early on by banging in a couple of goals in quick succession. How many times have we seen them do this and effectively end the game as a contest by HT. This would be a big worry for Galway considering the goals already conceded v Westmeath (4) and Offaly (3). On the plus side for them, they are raising plenty of green flags. Can they exploit Noel Hickey at full back though? He's back in with JJ Delaney injured.

Gonna go with Galway +7 @ 10/11 in the handicap. Opposing KK in any form is a mugs game, but here I go again. I think Galway will put up a much better showing than Dublin did and be competitive here. Perhaps I'm wishing this though

In the football I'm gonna take Cork only team to score a goal (6/5) and join the Kerry minor backers @ 5/2

Should be a good weekends hurling, am disappointed that both qualifiers arent live on TV, pretty idiotic decision from the GAA to only allow one qualifier match per round to be shown. These are knock out games and would be great to be able to see both, especially considering that most provincial semi finals (and quarter finals in football) end up being shown and these are no longer do or die matches for the teams

V good weekend all told, with all the main bets coming up.

[KevIRL]

Tipperary XV to play Waterford in Munster SHC final at Páirc Uí Chaoimh on Sunday, 15 July, throw-in 4.00pm.

1 Brendan Cummins, 2 Conor O’Brien, 3 Paul Curran (capt), 4 Michael Cahill, 5 Thomas Stapleton, 6 Conor O’Mahony, 7 Padraic Maher, 8 Brendan Maher, 9 Shane McGrath, 10 Pa Bourke, 11 Patrick Maher, 12 Lar Corbett, 13 Brian O’Meara, 14 John O’Brien, 15 Noel McGrath

[tipp86]

Tipperary XV to play Waterford in Munster SHC final at Páirc Uí Chaoimh on Sunday, 15 July, throw-in 4.00pm.

1 Brendan Cummins, 2 Conor O’Brien, 3 Paul Curran (capt), 4 Michael Cahill, 5 Thomas Stapleton, 6 Conor O’Mahony, 7 Padraic Maher, 8 Brendan Maher, 9 Shane McGrath, 10 Pa Bourke, 11 Patrick Maher, 12 Lar Corbett, 13 Brian O’Meara, 14 John O’Brien, 15 Noel McGrath

No real shock with that. We really have some choice in the forward line.

I fancy us to win by 4 or 5. It will be nothing like last year that was a freak result.

[KevIRL]

The first KK backlash well underway tonight. KK 3-14 Laois 0-6 in the Leinster u-21 final.

KK - 23 @ evs available in running. Snap it up

[tipp86]

I cant help but see the Bonnar Maher been huge value at 11/10 to score a point or more on Sunday. Il admit he hasnt scored in his last 3 championship runs and is not renowned for scoring but i wouldnt let that blind the value that is there.

These 3 games were Cork, KK in an all Ireland final and Limerick for 20 minutes. He scored 2 against the Dubs in last years semi.

He is more of a workhorse and contributes to setting up scores greatly but a key forward at 11/10 is a serious price.

[KevIRL]

A short look ahead to the weekends hurling

Cork v Wexford
Hard to see a lot of value here. Wexford will no doubt put up a decent showing but I can also see them fading pretty badly. Cork are -8 in the handicap, I'd expect them to win by about 6, so perhaps some small value there on Wexford +8, but wouldnt be going nuts. Wexford always a team likely to score goals, PP go 11/10 over 1.5 Wex goals, not a great price really. Will mostly give this game a wide berth.

Clare v Limerick
Most of the weekends value is here I feel. I think Limerick could get a significant win here and am definitely taking Limerick -1 @ 6/5. They have been scoring goals for fun, albeit against weaker opposition. Clare could easily have conceeded a few against Dublin and let in 2 against Waterford too, I think there is question marks about their backs and will be taking Limerick over 1.5 goals @ 5/6 and Limerick over 2.5goals 5/2.

Tipp v Waterford
I've been unusually negative about Waterford's chances this year. Tipp for me are well primed here for another big win. Most of the pundits expecting a close game, but I just dont see it. Tipp have had 2 games and a decent league. Waterford have had 1 competitive game since April 1st and there is a big gulf in class in these teams. Hopefully I'm wrong but I think Tipp -6 @ 10/11 will come home.

In the football one bet stands out for me Kerry - 6 @ 10/11 v Westmeath. I think this could very well be a whooping. Thought the handicap could easily have been double figures

[ciarraithuaidh]

Sigh..another weekend trying to reign myself in on the GAA betting. Recent weeks have been appaling with "sure things" like Armagh letting me down losing to a Roscommon team they would beat handily 9 times out of 10. Anyway, agree with Kev's opinions on the hurling. The Munster hurling final I'm tempted to go mad on...Tipp 1.5+ goals (4/7) (2.5+ is 13/8 also) Tipp to win and Noel McGrath/Pa Bourke to score a goal both 19/10, Tipp -6 @10/11...all look decent bets to me. Don't see Waterford containing that Tipp forward line.

Kerry -7 is very low, even if they are well off their best..with the mess in Westmeath this week you'd have to take that on. Quite a few options for goliath type bets there...Ilen rovers in cork football c/ship (2/5) can be thrown into that aswell, they are playing Na Piarsaigh who are in disarray.

[KevIRL]

From the GAA betting thread on boards...

[tipp86]

No football qualifier on tv or am i missing something?

[ciarraithuaidh]

From the GAA betting thread on boards...

Lol...Great "knowledge" of sports in Ireland on display there!

[KevIRL]

No football qualifier on tv or am i missing something?

Nope - rant from me about it on the BBV.

However stream from Thurles for the triple header (Premier Sports)

http://www.coolsport.tv/stream2.php

HT in the football, Tipp well ahead

[eamonhonda]

No football qualifier on tv or am i missing something?

see bbv for related kev rant, short answer no.

[ciarraithuaidh]

No football qualifier on tv or am i missing something?

Nope. Poor form from the GAA/RTE/TV3. 2 Hurling qualifiers on later, but no football. Sounds like a cracker in Longford with Limerick.

[KevIRL]

Nope. Poor form from the GAA/RTE/TV3. 2 Hurling qualifiers on later, but no football. Sounds like a cracker in Longford with Limerick.

Only the 1 hurling qualifer on, Clare v Limerick. Infuriating stuff.

Blame lies entirely with the GAA afaik, they set up the deal like this

[kaiser soze]

Think kerry-7 is a lock at 10/11 getting on heavy and also wexford-2 5/6.

[KevIRL]

Think kerry-7 is a lock at 10/11 getting on heavy and also wexford-2 5/6.

Wex a goal down at HT Baz.