Originally posted by amberleaf
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Kerry minus 4 saved my weekend.
Looking forward to this weekend Dublin are 5-6 for h-t/f-t which looks good. They always lead from the front so if you fancy them to win the match, this is much more appealing than taking 2-5. The odds are with PP and i cant see it lasting come the weekend so an early punt is advised.
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Originally posted by Warper View PostKerry minus 4 saved my weekend.
Looking forward to this weekend Dublin are 5-6 for h-t/f-t which looks good. They always lead from the front so if you fancy them to win the match, this is much more appealing than taking 2-5. The odds are with PP and i cant see it lasting come the weekend so an early punt is advised.Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by Jaysoose View PostThe only bets i like in this match are donegal over 12.5 pts @4/5 and aslo michael murphy to get more than 3.5 points.
Cant see the value in backing the dubs @2/5 so the bets above will do me in what could be a tight match.
Dublin don't foul much at all in the scoring zone.Last edited by BallymoreChris; 25-08-11, 13:16.
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Originally posted by Donk Magnet View Postif he starts ?? been a bit out of sorts this year
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Originally posted by BallymoreChris View PostRory O Carroll kept him out of it in the U-21 match last year and he missed a peno in that game, I'm sure he be reminded of that a lot on Sunday. Dublin will be concentrating on him a lot, I doubt he will get any from play.
Dublin don't foul much at all in the scoring zone.
Good points to be fair i just think his peformance after coming on against kildare showed how good he can be when he just gets his head down and shoots.
Still going for this bet as i dont think the dublin defence will have the easy game the did against tyrone (the dubs defended well).
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I've just taken the under points total with Stan James. Its 31.5 points with them, 5/6
I think Donegals game plan will be to shut down dublin. I expect the dubs to start fast, early balls into the forwards. Quick easy points. To lead at half time, and as the game goes on donegal will come back in to it. Expect a very close game. Cant see Dublin walking away with it at all. Dublin by 1/2 points
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Originally posted by Keane View PostPretty sick difference for PPs offer of under 29.5 at the same price
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Originally posted by Semibluff View PostI've just taken the under points total with Stan James. Its 31.5 points with them, 5/6
I think Donegals game plan will be to shut down dublin. I expect the dubs to start fast, early balls into the forwards. Quick easy points. To lead at half time, and as the game goes on donegal will come back in to it. Expect a very close game. Cant see Dublin walking away with it at all. Dublin by 1/2 points
Your backing the unders based on Donegal having the stingiest defense in the land?
If you think the dubs will get off to an early lead then what incentive do Donegal have to continue to play their overly defensive game, at that stage they may as well go for it.
what do you think a fair even money over/under line is?
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakI've backed Donegal.
Dublin beat an atrocious Tyrone team. Donegal are very underrated. Dublin deserve to be favorites but their supremacy is not as great as the odds suggest.
There a decent side who play well as unit but not a massive amount of creativity in the side.
Well capable of grinding a result out but i think the dubs will have too much firepower.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakI've backed Donegal.
Dublin beat an atrocious Tyrone team. Donegal are very underrated. Dublin deserve to be favorites but their supremacy is not as great as the odds suggest.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakI've backed Donegal.
Dublin beat an atrocious Tyrone team. Donegal are very underrated. Dublin deserve to be favorites but their supremacy is not as great as the odds suggest.
I very much expect a Dublin win. How will they win?? I just think their superiority all over the field will see them win and hold more possession and score considerably more over 70 odd minutes. Kinda simple and straightforward I know but again I like the KISS method of analysing these big games over the outrageous Strategy Nonesense that has come to fill the columns of our media in recent times when it comes to GAA. I havent looked at the handicaps available but I reckon Dublin's mostly like range of superiority will be in the 4-8 points bracket over Donegal. I'll be looking to find the best value odds to cover that range as opposed to backing Dub at 2/5 or 5/6 HT/FT.
Bye Bye Donegal, Hello the Good Old Days of Dublin V Kerry All-Ireland final. Can't wait Dont go spoiling the party now Donegal...Last edited by bustamoves; 26-08-11, 19:02.
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Originally posted by premierstone View PostHe will definitely start, he hasnt been out of sorts at all, he was injured in the run up to the Kildare game, and still scored some great vital scores, and he destroyed Tyrone in the Ulster final. Himself and Karl Lacey are the two Donegal players that would make any other team in the country.
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Originally posted by kpnuts View PostI wouldn't have either in the Dublin team. Or any of the other 13 Tir Chonaill tryers. They're in bonus territory. Dubs to score 1-4 in the first 15 minutes and to win by 7/8, off the bridle.
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Probably the worst game i have seen in a while,gilroy knew that he was going to be up against 12 donegal men in there own half and hadnt really got a plan for it, dubs were brutal and it was just the fact that donegal were worse. i am gettin the loot on kerry they havent even played yet and its not the greatest kerry team but it will be good enough on all ireland day on their pitch playing for their sam.location green and yellow stretford end
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It will be a different game from todays
Kerry will be hot favourites which will suit dublin, the dublin forwards will get alot more freedom vrs a footballing team and the dublin defence is solid. Ovly i'm blinkered but the teams are alot closer than you all seem to think. Kerry would have struggled vrs donegal today prokly not for as long as dublin did, kerry would be alot stronger at getting long range pointsand this is the main area that they would have a significant edge over dublin
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Postwouldnt put you off it they pretty much ran the show in the 1/4 final,im going to stick with the low scoreing game angle,reckon donegal will give very little space and try and close down the dublin attack,tall order i know!anyways under 30.5 total points @ 5/6 and no goal scorer @ 9/2 both with boyles(pp are 28.5 under/over & 4/1 no goal)putting all my eggs in one basket,but the way things have gone over the last while with the gaa bets,might as well gamble!.missed the tipp minors last week @ 6/4,never met so many people who had em backed,def. the one that got away,grrrrMattie McGrath wanna-be
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wouldnt write off the dubs yet,think most people knew what donegal were going to bring to the game and i guess gilroy had a game plan and in fairness the dubs have shown nuff over the last year that their better than that,but i dont think anyone was thinking it would be this ugly but agree that kerry must be comeing in their pants after watching that shite.a bigger danger now is that every half arsed team in the country will be looking at donegal and thinking the blanket defence could be the way to go to get results which would be horrible for the game!hurling final on the way,heard a little romour that there might be a injury scare on the kk side,might be the ould cody mind games,anyone else here anything?Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Think Kerry will be very comfortable in the final tbh.
I'd be fairly surprised to see Connolly's red being rescinded and Dublin would need a performace like he put in against Tyrone in the final.
Basically Dublin don't have the forwards imo. Bernard Brogan is a great player but has been handled by the Kerry backs plenty of times, Alan is the only other forward with the talent to have a big impact on the game and tbh I don't think he performs on big occasions.
Man for man, the Kerry forwards would pretty much all be confident of getting the better of their marker. Dublin's blanket defence will only work to a point since Kerry have more than a couple of players capable of scoring from 50 yards. Once Kerry start to do that Dublin will have to look to press higher up the field and Kerry will capitalise on the space that will leave in the full forward line.
Dublin won yesterday basically by outlasting Donegal (along with some pretty soft frees from the ref), Kerry's strong finishes against Cork and Mayo show - whatever about a baseless perceived lack of staying power amongst the general population - that Kerry won't be shrugged off in the later stages of the game.
Dublin will need goals in the final, and while Kerry do give up some chances in most games, Dublin have been less than clinical in those sort of positions in the last few games.
I fancy Kerry to win by 6 points plus assuming a fully fit panel. Should be a great day out, can't wait.
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Keano, you were saying in the BBV before the Dublin game at the weekend that you thought a Kerry Dublin final would be really close, now you see Kerry beating them comfortably. Kneejerk reaction based on one game against a horribly defensive side or were Dublin that bad?Profit before people.
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Dublin have to re-invent their game against Kerry. All year the Dublin tactics has been to funnel back and let the non footballing backs have loads of time on the ball while they cover the dangerous forwards. Inevitably this lead to the backs giving away the ball/shooting from difficult angles and Dublin crushing teams on the break.
Dublin cant let the kerry half backs have time on the ball. Look at the way Kerry lined out against Mayo. All footballing half backs but more importantly all players that are devastating at kicking points from long range. so if Dublin retreat too much they are just going to concede scores.
This will force them to go man to man - in turn forcing their backs to go man to man on the kerry forwards which will be a great duel imo.
At the end of the day Dublin have got to where they are by being defensive with some great forwards which is very tough to beat but it wont work against Kerry. Just let the 2 teams go at it and see who can outgun the other
should be a great game
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostKeano, you were saying in the BBV before the Dublin game at the weekend that you thought a Kerry Dublin final would be really close, now you see Kerry beating them comfortably. Kneejerk reaction based on one game against a horribly defensive side or were Dublin that bad?
If you look back to the Leinster final I basically said (Dublin - Bernard Brogan) = Wexford.
The performance against Tyrone scared the shit out of me, but in retrospect not only was that an aberration in terms of Dublin's level of performance, but Donegal's performance yesterday gives us a lot more information on that intangible of just how good Tyrone were.
The difference in my thinking between the Leinster final and the QF was based around the idea that all of a sudden Dublin had put together a serious forward line. On closer inspection this isn't really the case.
I just don't think they'll score enough to trouble us.
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tipp team up,same as the one that started v dublin,(ie no brendan maher),he came on at 1/2 time in the dublin game,which you would think would have helped him along,not far nuff to start him tho!,just saw the rte sport website,they have tip v dublin in the final,jazus the cody tactics,couldnt watch emMattie McGrath wanna-be
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had a good look at the markets for sundays hurling games,and a few have taken my eye,in the minor,dublin v galway,the 4 or more goals to be scored looks intresting,the thing about these minor games is that because of nerves,and being in such a massive game, any defencesive tactics are for the most part fired out the window after a while and it ends up as a man marking job,which turns into a very open game as we saw in the semi finals,great games to watch and can be very high scoreing,and i think its wholely possible that at least 4 goals will be scored,dublin are scoreing plenty,but are letting in a good few as well,4 or more goals to be scored is evens at powers
in the main match,again im going for another scoreing bet,the total points the line here is 47.5 pts under/over,to me this depends on goals,and in all fairness tipp have got plenty,but if you take out the munster final,its about average,dublin played a bit of a sweeper system in the back line,to combat the kelly/corbett show and only for a very soft goal at the start of the game,worked very well,so much so that lar corbett,drifted towards midfield to get a little space and picked off some great points which helped get tipp over the line,i just think if goals are kept to the min,this could be a lowish scoreing game,and is 5/6 for the unders a double here pays just over 5/2 which will do me fine as i have a right wedge on kk to lift the cup @ 6/4 so have a tiny edge there,and corbett to win the player of the year @ 11/4(5/4 now)so have a decent edge there.could be testies in a sling time if things dont work outLast edited by amberleaf; 01-09-11, 09:16.Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Random facts re final
Dublin vs kerry stats last few years.
07 2 *2pt win margin
09 - draw, 17 point win
10- 2pts
11- 1pt
Also - over the last 20 years, average winning margin has been 4.25 points. With Kerry racking up a good few large victories to slightly skewer these figures.
If we dis-regard any scorelines over 4 point wins and count them only as 4 pts, this brings us down to 3.05 pts average
Kerrys net score over their league games is +3.1 per game. which isnt a bad example as its against teams meant to be of simular standard
This increases to 4.8 points if you include the munster championship
Dublins net score over the league games is 2.85 +points.
this increases to 3.58 if you include the leinster + previous rounds games also
Now use them facts to convince yourself of a bet!
I think that its safe to say that Kerrys biggest wins have came when they have been by and large the strongest team going into the game. Those games were it has been closer in betting odds and team strength the matches have been pretty close, especially this year.
This is very true for Dublin, with the Tyrone game being the only to buck the trend.
With un doubted nerves going to kick into the Dubs as they near a possible all Ireland, I really find it very hard to see this game having more than a kick of the ball between it
Depending which side of the fence you think the game will land, the winning margin bet should be a nice one. I think that Kerry to win between 1-3 points at 3.75 with both PP and SJ represents value and it will be the bet that I will be having a little of
For those of the blue persuasion - 7/2 Dublin, 1-3 point win is the only way to goLast edited by Semibluff; 02-09-11, 04:42.
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Originally posted by Semibluff View PostRandom facts re final
Dublin vs kerry stats last few years.
07 2 *2pt win margin
09 - draw, 17 point win
10- 2pts
11- 1pt
Also - over the last 20 years, average winning margin has been 4.25 points. With Kerry racking up a good few large victories to slightly skewer these figures.
If we dis-regard any scorelines over 4 point wins and count them only as 4 pts, this brings us down to 3.05 pts average
Kerrys net score over their league games is +3.1 per game. which isnt a bad example as its against teams meant to be of simular standard
This increases to 4.8 points if you include the munster championship
Dublins net score over the league games is 2.85 +points.
this increases to 3.58 if you include the leinster + previous rounds games also
Now use them facts to convince yourself of a bet!
I think that its safe to say that Kerrys biggest wins have came when they have been by and large the strongest team going into the game. Those games were it has been closer in betting odds and team strength the matches have been pretty close, especially this year.
This is very true for Dublin, with the Tyrone game being the only to buck the trend.
With un doubted nerves going to kick into the Dubs as they near a possible all Ireland, I really find it very hard to see this game having more than a kick of the ball between it
Depending which side of the fence you think the game will land, the winning margin bet should be a nice one. I think that Kerry to win between 1-3 points at 3.75 with both PP and SJ represents value and it will be the bet that I will be having a little of
For those of the blue persuasion - 7/2 Dublin, 1-3 point win is the only way to go
Add to that the testing of new players, players in different positions and its hard to read too much from it.
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Posthad a good look at the markets for sundays hurling games,and a few have taken my eye,in the minor,dublin v galway,the 4 or more goals to be scored looks intresting,the thing about these minor games is that because of nerves,and being in such a massive game, any defencesive tactics are for the most part fired out the window after a while and it ends up as a man marking job,which turns into a very open game as we saw in the semi finals,great games to watch and can be very high scoreing,and i think its wholely possible that at least 4 goals will be scored,dublin are scoreing plenty,but are letting in a good few as well,4 or more goals to be scored is evens at powers
in the main match,again im going for another scoreing bet,the total points the line here is 47.5 pts under/over,to me this depends on goals,and in all fairness tipp have got plenty,but if you take out the munster final,its about average,dublin played a bit of a sweeper system in the back line,to combat the kelly/corbett show and only for a very soft goal at the start of the game,worked very well,so much so that lar corbett,drifted towards midfield to get a little space and picked off some great points which helped get tipp over the line,i just think if goals are kept to the min,this could be a lowish scoreing game,and is 5/6 for the unders a double here pays just over 5/2 which will do me fine as i have a right wedge on kk to lift the cup @ 6/4 so have a tiny edge there,and corbett to win the player of the year @ 11/4(5/4 now)so have a decent edge there.could be testies in a sling time if things dont work out
Re the minors.....
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Dublin minors/KK Seniors double is 3.77/1 on William Hill, having some of that.
A little tipple on Padraic Maher to be man of the match @14/1 on boyles aswell.
Will be holding big ammo for the football weekend though. The Dublin minors/Kerry double is getting lumped there."Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC
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Originally posted by BallymoreChris View PostMattie McGrath wanna-be
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Need an interest bet in the final. PP refunding all goalscoring bets if Lar scores the last goal. Who do we like for first goal or anytime goal Kev?Last edited by The Situation; 04-09-11, 12:32.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostNeed an interest bet in the final. PP refunding all goalscoring bets if Lar scores the last goal. Who do we like for first goal or anytime goal Kev?
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostWhat makes you think KK will take an early lead in the Final? Also if the game finishes as a draw(unlikely but possible), you're screwing yourself both ways.
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Originally posted by amberleaf View Posthad a good look at the markets for sundays hurling games,and a few have taken my eye,in the minor,dublin v galway,the 4 or more goals to be scored looks intresting,the thing about these minor games is that because of nerves,and being in such a massive game, any defencesive tactics are for the most part fired out the window after a while and it ends up as a man marking job,which turns into a very open game as we saw in the semi finals,great games to watch and can be very high scoreing,and i think its wholely possible that at least 4 goals will be scored,dublin are scoreing plenty,but are letting in a good few as well,4 or more goals to be scored is evens at powers
in the main match,again im going for another scoreing bet,the total points the line here is 47.5 pts under/over,to me this depends on goals,and in all fairness tipp have got plenty,but if you take out the munster final,its about average,dublin played a bit of a sweeper system in the back line,to combat the kelly/corbett show and only for a very soft goal at the start of the game,worked very well,so much so that lar corbett,drifted towards midfield to get a little space and picked off some great points which helped get tipp over the line,i just think if goals are kept to the min,this could be a lowish scoreing game,and is 5/6 for the unders a double here pays just over 5/2 which will do me fine as i have a right wedge on kk to lift the cup @ 6/4 so have a tiny edge there,and corbett to win the player of the year @ 11/4(5/4 now)so have a decent edge there.could be testies in a sling time if things dont work outMattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by KevIRL View PostTipp minors surely a value bet at 3/1 v Dublin? Beaten Cork and Kerry already this year. Seems a huge pricePm for rakeback deals
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