IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[Wesley Harms]

Ffs. Betting in running bets are not applicable.

If I phone then up and say that the horse had already fallen when the bet was placed do you think I'd have a case?

Someone who saw the race live please tell me what fence she fell at.

She didn't jump any fences today

[SatNav]

Do I get my fifty back, backed it on PP last night? It's not there at the min?

[Guest]

Ffs. Betting in running bets are not applicable.

If I phone then up and say that the horse had already fallen when the bet was placed do you think I'd have a case?

Someone who saw the race live please tell me what fence she fell at.

I'd say customer service would say only a fool would back a nag that was out of the race already.

[shrapnel]

Do I get my fifty back, backed it on PP last night? It's not there at the min?

you'll get it as a free bet. It should be there later some time today, although it can take a day or so at times.

[Dice75]

Do I get my fifty back, backed it on PP last night? It's not there at the min?

You get it back as a free bet, it will show up later

[luckforsome]

...Apparently Sadlers risk was 4 pound under weight...and the second horse was definitely catching...

[Fiery Wasabi]

So did she fall at the first or what? ..
Put the bet on using my phone, so that I could watch the race. Then as soon as I put it on, I click on to the live stream and she's already out fml.

Edit...GFY Sick Puppy !

[Wesley Harms]

So did she fall at the first or what? ..
Put the bet on using my phone, so that I could watch the race. Then as soon as I put it on, I click on to the live stream and she's already out fml.

She fell 4 out I think, I was just being facetious above. It was a hurdle race hence no fences.

[The Situation]

So did she fall at the first or what? ..
Put the bet on using my phone, so that I could watch the race. Then as soon as I put it on, I click on to the live stream and she's already out fml.

Edit...GFYSP

Way to kick a guy when he's down

[Arazi]

Also to be fair to Strewelpeter he didn't really tip up the horse, he just made a best case for her and said he'd be having a bet but that if the real bog warrior turned up he'd beat her easily.

[Strewelpeter]

Ah well horse and jockey all sage and sound.

Hopefully there will be better days.

We were expecting loads of pace in the race... In the weighroom there were three of them saying they would be going on by the time they started that had changed and lynch was only ambling along to suit himself do Ian felt that he had to go on. Perhaps he should have had abit more confidence in her ability.

[White Knight]

Not being bitter here but I honestly think with another jockey on board you would have had at least 3 more wins (specific races in mind). Has there been any thoughts of changing?

There was a write up somewhere saying that JJ does not win enough for the talent it has.

[Raoul Duke III]

On another (completely different) note, there is definitely an upcoming vacancy for a competent commentator. Des hasn't a breeze what's going on these days although his blatant stalling for time while he tries to match racecard colours to what he's seeing is mildly hilarious.

I do remember him calling a complete outsider home in glorious isolation at Leops a few seasons back. Cue groans from the crowd and mass tearing up of tickets. To be followed by frantic scrabbling for the remains of the tickets as he changes his mind and reveals that the fav has in fact romped in.

[Raoul Duke III]

Not being bitter here but I honestly think with another jockey on board you would have had at least 3 more wins (specific races in mind). Has there been any thoughts of changing?

There was a write up somewhere saying that JJ does not win enough for the talent it has.

My thoughts are that she's an unbelievably genuine mare but she needs absolutely everything to drop right (ideally on heavy) for her to get the win. I doubt a jockey change would make much difference to that.
Today was unfortunate especially as her fencing experience seemed to have sharpened up her hurdling at Navan last time. All safe and sound and she will go on being a credit to connections.

[White Knight]

On another (completely different) note, there is definitely an upcoming vacancy for a competent commentator. Des hasn't a breeze what's going on these days although his blatant stalling for time while he tries to match racecard colours to what he's seeing is mildly hilarious.

I do remember him calling a complete outsider home in glorious isolation at Leops a few seasons back. Cue groans from the crowd and mass tearing up of tickets. To be followed by frantic scrabbling for the remains of the tickets as he changes his mind and reveals that the fav has in fact romped in.

He did it 4 days ago as well! Until he was told right on the winning line. Supposedly the other horse (nowhere) touched 1.07 due to it! Ouch.

[Fiery Wasabi]

Way to kick a guy when he's down

Its pretty annoying/insulting to tip up a horse in good faith and then to have it thrown back in your face if it doesn't win. The insults normally come from gombeens who have lost a tenner. In my case I find this hard to take when I may have had 100 times that on it. It's doubly insulting to be the person who also pays the monthly training fees and upkeep of that horse thus adding to the total fiscal loss and even more so to the scale of the disappointment. In the words of Bricktop "if I throw a dog a bone I don't want to know what it tastes like". That's a fairly prophetic statement in my view. I would suggest people think about it and the bigger picture the next time they lose a tenner.

Jaysus lads will ye calm da fuq down. ....the edit was aimed at Sick puppy's post. (changed above now)
It's not that I was upset at the horse falling or losing, but was at Mick's waiting in the wings as usual to berate someone.

[Wesley Harms]

Not being bitter here but I honestly think with another jockey on board you would have had at least 3 more wins (specific races in mind). Has there been any thoughts of changing?

There was a write up somewhere saying that JJ does not win enough for the talent it has.

Agree with this. Don't know the jockey obv but he's a menace imo. Not looking to argue this point with anyone it's my opinion. Get her a new jockey

[Wesley Harms]

Here is another beauty - when you pay the bills you get to decide who rides your horse. Any of you guys on here looking for a horse for which you can pay the bills for in order to have input on the jockey arrangements then shout and il find something to sell you.

Try this listen beauty out, everyone here is entitled to an opinion. Like I said above Im not looking to argue the point.

[Norwichfanrob]

I fail to see what exactly Ian did wrong , unlucky Strewelpeter

[The Situation]

Here is another beauty - when you pay the bills you get to decide who rides your horse. Any of you guys on here looking for a horse for which you can pay the bills for in order to have input on the jockey arrangements then shout and il find something to sell you.

I'll take a Tony Martin trained os that's been "out of sorts" last few runs, ty.

[White Knight]

I have no problem asking a question or giving my feedback. It's probably a good thing to get from unconnected sources that are impartial - not that I'm an expert in the field either. But it is what a public horse racing thread is for!

Anyhow unlucky today SP my feeling was JJ may have had all the running of those as the race was materialising which would have backed up your reasoning for going for this race. IMO probably a good decision and unfortunate on the day. Hopefully she is good in herself after the fall and no ill affects going forward.

[Arazi]

She would definitely benefit from having one of the few "Top Jockeys" on board, as would all horses not ridden by Walsh, Geraghty, McCoy & IMO Carberry. These increase your chances of winning by up to 40%. There are some Neutrals - in Ireland Russell, Cooper; in UK - Scudamore, Maguire, O'Regan.
As a punter if you punt outside of this group just don't complain when you get beat or the pilot fucks up.
Having the right jockey on board is the most underrated factor when backing horses, I'd say on any given day 25% of races would have different winners dependant on a diff/better jockey.
One glaring example at the moment is that unsurprisingly poor judge of a jockey Barry Connell giving a retainer to the young Heskin kid who is as bad a judge of tactics as I've come across and as a rider is moderately average.

[Guest]

Jaysus lads will ye calm da fuq down. ....the edit was aimed at Sick puppy's post. (changed above now)
It's not that I was upset at the horse falling or losing, but was at Mick's waiting in the wings as usual to berate someone.

Come on just was saying what customer support be thinking.

[Ed]

Who'd ultimately choose the jockey in most cases? Presume owner has the final say as they're putting up the fee but imagine for a lot of syndicates it'd be the trainer pushing for a particular jockey. (No opinion on JJs jockey, wouldn't have a clue even if i had seen the race)

[Strewelpeter]

While I think Arazi has a point there is a huge selection bias involved as the top few pilots get the pick of the mounts. Skill and experience count for a lot but 40% sounds way too much IMO.

It makes sense that a lad who is winning races all the time will have a better chance of getting right all the things that need to be got right makes a lot of sense.

[Strewelpeter]

Who'd ultimately choose the jockey in most cases? Presume owner has the final say as they're putting up the fee but imagine for a lot of syndicates it'd be the trainer pushing for a particular jockey. (No opinion on JJs jockey, wouldn't have a clue even if i had seen the race)

The bigger yards mostly have a stable jockey who will have the pick of the available rides from that stable.
Smaller trainers will have the option to use the lads who ride work for them or to call on the services of whoever is available for a particular race. There are agents are trying to match available rides with jockeys.

Owners who have a lot of horses across a number of yards tend these days to keep a retained jockey who will ride most of their horses and also ride work on them, which is the biggest part of a jockeys job.

[Fiery Wasabi]

Come on just was saying what customer support be thinking.

Yeah I know that, and sorry for any mis-understanding, but it's just unfortunate the you and Tony have usernames that are 'SP'. Didn't mean to get on Tony's case at all, and would be only too delighted for him to have a winner. I think he knows me well enough to realise that too.

Anyway, Happy New Year to you,Tony and to GAB... and hopefully Jennies Jewel will be in the winners enclosure soon.

[Arazi]

While I think Arazi has a point there is a huge selection bias involved as the top few pilots get the pick of the mounts. Skill and experience count for a lot but 40% sounds way too much IMO.

It makes sense that a lad who is winning races all the time will have a better chance of getting right all the things that need to be got right makes a lot of sense.

I did say up to 40% in fairness.
And what I mean by that is that a horse who is a genuine 10/1 chance in a race with say your jockey (Ian McCarthy) might be a genuine 7/1 chance with Barry Geraghty on board. Geraghtys presence might make him a 6/1 chance if the original jockey was Sam Waley Cohen or a 9/1 chance if it was Brian Cooper.

Geraghty won the last race in Chepstow on Monday on a horse called Clean Sheet by a short head and it's arguable whether anyone else could have won on him, it was a majestic ride (he'd have prob won on any of the first 3 home).
Carberry's ride on Bellvano in the Johnny Henderson 2 years ago is another example. These guys ride like an art form whereas others just ride.

On the counter side Brian Cooper, a top class jockey, got beat on the first fav at Punchestown today and I'd honestly say any of the 4 I mentioned would have 100% won on him. He rode a clueless race.

It's our money and I think before smashing into one in 2015 just stop for a second and consider the jockey.

[mdoug]

Here is another beauty - when you pay the bills you get to decide who rides your horse. Any of you guys on here looking for a horse for which you can pay the bills for in order to have input on the jockey arrangements then shout and il find something to sell you.

Ah feck off now.
I literally offered thousands to be involved in whatever shitty straw name horse and you currently have and you refused my money. Get out of your own fucking hole and have a merry 2015.

[Strewelpeter]

Ian McCarthy took a fall schooling this morning and broke his collar bone - it may be through necessity that JJ has a different pilot next time depending on his recovery and her next intended start.

Ah shite, that's lousy

He was in fierce bad form yesterday evening, that's the last thing he needed. I'm sure he'll recover quickly and bounce back better than ever

[Strewelpeter]

Ian McCarthy took a fall schooling this morning and broke his collar bone - it may be through necessity that JJ has a different pilot next time depending on his recovery and her next intended start.

The break happened in the race yesterday and he only went to the hospital with it after he wasn't able for schooling this morning.

[Pat Mustard]

Shark Hanlons horse is meant to win the bumper in Cheltenham or so I'm told. In for the win.... Good to see a bit of discussion in here too...Bad luck SP hope JJ is none the worse. Happy New Year all.

[The Situation]

Reckon apprentice races are the ones that a standout jockey would give you the biggest edge, you can visibly see massive class differences in those races in terms of riding technique.

But personally find it very tough rate your run of the mill pro jockey and reckon jumps jockeys are far tougher to analyse than flat. Like through the winter you have the same bunch of flat jockeys riding a few tracks, variables like psychological edge show through and lads like Smullen or Adam Kirby win races they've no right due to their exceptional skill and track knowledge.

But apart from the standouts it's really difficult, especially when you factor in how often they're not trying.

[careca]

Shark Hanlons horse is meant to win the bumper in Cheltenham or so I'm told. In for the win.... Good to see a bit of discussion in here too...Bad luck SP hope JJ is none the worse. Happy New Year all.

Left me down for a nice double with Elliotts bumper winner at FH. Was on early this morning though so no GFYPM

[Blip]

She would definitely benefit from having one of the few "Top Jockeys" on board, as would all horses not ridden by Walsh, Geraghty, McCoy & IMO Carberry. These increase your chances of winning by up to 40%. There are some Neutrals - in Ireland Russell, Cooper; in UK - Scudamore, Maguire, O'Regan.
As a punter if you punt outside of this group just don't complain when you get beat or the pilot fucks up.
Having the right jockey on board is the most underrated factor when backing horses, I'd say on any given day 25% of races would have different winners dependant on a diff/better jockey.
One glaring example at the moment is that unsurprisingly poor judge of a jockey Barry Connell giving a retainer to the young Heskin kid who is as bad a judge of tactics as I've come across and as a rider is moderately average.

He had a shocking day at Fairyhouse today so along with your statement above l looked him up, this might be a small sample but got to say he's on a serious cooler atm.
image.jpg

[Arazi]

Yes a shocking run going on those stats.

[Raoul Duke III]

He had a shocking day at Fairyhouse today so along with your statement above l looked him up, this might be a small sample but got to say he's on a serious cooler atm.
[ATTACH]2179[/ATTACH]

Saw him close up at Leops and he looked dreadful. Years and lifestyle have not been kind.

[Arazi]

I see McCoy has ridden 24 consecutive losers (including 5 Favs) also so even the great have their downswings.

[Pat Mustard]

I see McCoy has ridden 24 consecutive losers (including 5 Favs) also so even the great have their downswings.

Apparently something amiss currently in John Jo's...wouldn't take a very good judge to see this either... so this would be a huge factor...all the retained jockeys are subject to this swings depending on the yards health

[Raoul Duke III]

Apparently something amiss currently in John Jo's...wouldn't take a very good judge to see this either... so this would be a huge factor...all the retained jockeys are subject to this swings depending on the yards health

He managed to get a 1/4 shot home at Ffos Las today anyway.

Do we not think there's a 'jockey premium' baked into horse's odds anyway? Thus a 10\1shot ridden by McCoy might be 12\1 if ridden by Fehily. Or 20\1 if ridden by Roger Loughran.

[Guest]

Benability in the 1.45 in Ffos las looks like a decent shout at 5/2, won Stephens day, due to move up 8lbs following that result but remains the same weight for this race.

[Pat Mustard]

He managed to get a 1/4 shot home at Ffos Las today anyway.

Do we not think there's a 'jockey premium' baked into horse's odds anyway? Thus a 10\1shot ridden by McCoy might be 12\1 if ridden by Fehily. Or 20\1 if ridden by Roger Loughran.

I'd agree with Arazi but wouldn't think it was 20%, maybe half that. Yeah I'd agree that the bookies take less chance with a "premium" jock on board. I think SP would be thinking more a 200/1 for Loughran

[horatio1]

A little ew patent for some entertainment on the sand tonight:

Celestial Dawn 1845 wol
Sister slew 1905 dun
Rose angel 205 dun

[Ed]

A little ew patent for some entertainment on the sand tonight:

Celestial Dawn 1845 wol
Sister slew 1905 dun
Rose angel 205 dun

Have given this a go

[Ed]

Nice shout on Sister Slew

[Ed]

Ouch, nice selections

[Arazi]

He managed to get a 1/4 shot home at Ffos Las today anyway.

Do we not think there's a 'jockey premium' baked into horse's odds anyway? Thus a 10\1shot ridden by McCoy might be 12\1 if ridden by Fehily. Or 20\1 if ridden by Roger Loughran.

Not as a science but for some it's huge:
McCoy in NH, Nina in Bumpers, Ryan Moore on the flat will all have the presence of the top rider in that sphere built into the price. On the converse when a form horse is ridden by a gimp or jockey of lesser ability they tend to be underpriced and can be laid, a good example here is Dunguib in the Supreme Novices or also the first race tonight @ Dundalk where the top weight was sent off 11/4 ridden by a 10 pound claimer who had never ridden a winner and made a complete mess of a winning position.

[horatio1]

1435 ling is a decent looking class 2 . Perfect pasture sets a good standard and fairway to heaven has been backed for a shrewd yard following a few dubious runs. I like secondo ew if he hits 5/1 . Seemed to be on an upward curve but got a terrible passage through his last race. Whatever happens I think a lot of future winners will pop up from the race.

[Dice75]

@horatio have a double going onto Castillo in the 2.00. What do you make of the race?

[horatio1]

@horatio have a double going onto Castillo in the 2.00. What do you make of the race?

Only saw now best of luck

[Dice75]

Only saw now best of luck

Godolphin horse falls at Lingfield on the all weather and scuppers Favs chance.

Theres a sentence i never thought id write a few years ago.

[horatio1]

Interesting to see Seamus Fahey send a horse that hasn't ran for a year and a half over for the last at southwell tomorrow. Was once rated 78 over here and runs off 49. Breeding would suggest it should like it there and his horses are running well at the moment. A dull and dreary kip to head for on a jaunt!

[premierstone]

He has one in the second last as well, same owner.

[horatio1]

I see its barney time again

[careca]

I see its barney time again

which one(s)

[horatio1]

which one(s)

Giant sequoia and ecliptic sunrise ling and eye of the tiger Dundalk, prob another one I can't spot

[DeadParrot]

Giant sequoia and ecliptic sunrise ling and eye of the tiger Dundalk, prob another one I can't spot

not a decent price between them

[horatio1]

not a decent price between them

12/1 5/1 9/2 last night, doesn't seem as sustained as last time

[rounders123]

Did you hear Simon Holts commentary in the Balder Success race. Think it was him anyway, good comentator usually but he had his head up Hunt Balls hole from the very outset with overrated superlatives on Hunt Balls early jumping. They were scarcely racing at that point, it was so biased. When he beat a retreat he didnt make equal note of it. It was like he was saying ah you fools on Balder Success.

[wicklowp]

Think it was Mark Johnson nearly sure Holt was at Warwick