IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[amberleaf]

And the penny finally drops,did a little reading up on james willoughby and obviously need to do much more,cheers lads.

[The C Kid]

And the penny finally drops,did a little reading up on james willoughby and obviously need to do much more,cheers lads.

It's a pretty interesting field (imo), although by no means a guaranteed system and is best looked at as a piece of a bigger picture.

There's a huge amount of literature on it, mostly written from a US perspective, guys like Beyer, Brohamer, Davidowitz, James Quinn would be some key authors in the field. I'd definitely recommend having a read of any of Beyer's books for some interesting reading, he has quite an anecdotal, conversational style of writing so they make for interesting, fun and easy reading for any racing fan. From a UK perspective, Mordin on Time, despite being criticised in quarters and slightly outdated, is a pretty easy reading introduction to speed ratings, pace etc.

Plenty of articles out there from guys like Willoughby, Mordin, and Simon Rowlands (who like Gimmeabreak noted is really approachable and sent me a few articles when i was getting into a few years ago as well as answering any queries I had) that can be sought out and looked at.

I'm a bit rusty and out of the loop on any modern updates and recent articles, so can't give you any recent pieces worth checking out. And again as mentioned earlier, it's worth bearing in mind that it's very hard for Irish racing given the utter contempt shown by Irish racecourses and racing authorities for publicising the kind of information needed for pace handicapping. If there's any areas you're particularly interested in, give me a shout and i can probably dig out some info from my old databases and harddrives, but as I say it's a few years since I compiled my own figures.

[horatio1]

Not sure if that has happened before. Only two went o post for the 1610 seller at wolly. Both owned by middle ham park racing. Outsider won!

[Wesley Harms]

Not sure if that has happened before. Only two went o post for the 1610 seller at wolly. Both owned by middle ham park racing. Outsider won!

Yes both middle park racing but different syndicates so in effect, different owners

[wicklowp]

Was so looking forward to the 2.20 at Southwell and then La Estrella goes and hurts himself and is out

[The Situation]

Was so looking forward to the 2.20 at Southwell and then La Estrella goes and hurts himself and is out

Hmmm you'd have to be a tad cynical given the rule 4 loophole that was on offer.

[horatio1]

Quadriga might run better than his odds suggest 1550 Southwell.

[wicklowp]

Hmmm you'd have to be a tad cynical given the rule 4 loophole that was on offer.

True but he was looked at by 2 racecourse vets so I'd assume all was above board.

[wicklowp]

Stewards inquiry into the withdrawal now!

[Wesley Harms]

Hmmm you'd have to be a tad cynical given the rule 4 loophole that was on offer.

What loophole

[wicklowp]

They were evens and 5/6 I think at time of withdrawal so backing the winner at 5/6 leaves a 50p deduction in the £ and he returned 1/80!

[horatio1]

Pretty boring day on the racing front. Anyone up for tipping comp at kemp?

10 PTs for winner plus 1 pt per return sp;

1720: kelpie blitz
1750: michaels nook
1820: taquka
1850: smokethatthunders
1920: female strategy
1950: wiki tiki
2020: jalingo

[wicklowp]

17.20: Poitin
17.50: Surrey Dream
18.20: Pool House
18.50: Smokethatthunders
19.20: Artemis
19.50: Alumina
20.20: Examiner

[horatio1]

Streaking ahead Wicklow

[wicklowp]

Gone beyond recall

[horatio1]

Reminds me of stand guard and bix yesterday. Well played hope you backed them!

[wicklowp]

Reminds me of stand guard and bix yesterday. Well played hope you backed them!

Had no bet, only looked at the card when I seen your post!

[horatio1]

Might stick one up for Suddy tomorrow on a separate thread. Don't want to derail this one

[Raoul Duke III]

Califante in the 7.45 at Dundalk tomorrow - backed at 11\4.

Amazingly enough, I am breakeven for the month despite getting annihilated at Leops last weekend.

[The Situation]

Chancing this New Tarabela in the 3:10 Lingers maiden at 20/1. Owner trainer have had a very decent strike rate on the all weather over the past year.

[Pat Mustard]

Henderson with a treble already at Kempton, few good chances still to go especially in the last

[Pat Mustard]

Bog War form looks good aafter Christys Call winning last week in the lucky last

[horatio1]

Odds compilers taking no chances with kassiodor 1450 kemp tomorrow . Former Curley horse , 824 days off trained by Sophie leech , ridden by Shane kelly, 3/1 fav ! First or last?

[poprock]

Gimmeabreak. In that 410 race you posted, there are 4 horses entered into the grand national with OR of 129-150 ( estimate) what kind of OR will get you in the lineup for certain and will those with very high ratings be looking to bring the mark down for a good weight in the national?

[Guest]

Rarely bet on nags gamboooooll

Single EW


Sword Fish @ Guaranteed Price (7/1)WinOpen

4:10 Punchestown (23:10 ICT)

Stake: €76.00Potential Returns: €408.50

[poprock]

I think you are over thinking it a little.

Maybe, I've not done much work on identifying a horse potential plans for the year, so dont know what to look out for, quotes from racing post, under trainers are excellent

[rounders123]

Just watched it again. I think he shouldnt have been if the front rank and should have maybe just hunted un behind. The jockey then go a bit anxious and started chasing him up then when the pace increased.
Turning in he was well behind yet staying on better than most.

Now. Ive been thinking about this the last couple of weeks. I think Willie Mullins is fcuking around with the preparations and his thoughts on Annie Power and will he wont he go for the Champion Hurdle. Just too much faffing out of him and to me sending him on a GB campaign is so unlike him and indicated to me hes keeping him a mile away from Hurricane Fly.
Too much of this shit about his campaign for too long in interviews ''Ah we havent sat down and talked about it'' etc but if i was Ricci id be furious. You can actually see Mullins squirming when Annie Powers campaign path is put to him. I have no doubt if Hurricane Fly was a waning horse Annie Power would proudly be his flag bearer on the champion hurdle so just because both of them are in form what should change?.
In my opinion he should quickly accept that they are on a collision course in the champion and may the best horse win. Instead hes fcuking about with an undetermined plan withh Annie power.

[Strewelpeter]

WPM has the final call on the plans for all horses in the yard, that rule will still stand even for an owner of Ricci's stature with the slight addendum that Willies decision will be whatever Ricci has already decided.

I don't know if you saw Ricci's interview after Doncaster, it was interesting that he said that he does have a clear preference and so does his wife, I sensed that hers was the same preference. I can only think that if there is a clear preference it must be for the churdle - Owners like him do not lie awake at night dreaming of winning the Mares or the Stayers.

[horatio1]

Really like Frederic Chopin 1630 ling tomorrow . Was well backed for a shrewd outfit when returning from a break lto. Broke well but didn't want to lead and pulled hard behind the first two who crawled. He lost his place and looked to have lost all chance before flying home .

Johnstons horse is fav having battled well at Southwell but that form doesn't always translate to other aw tracks. It's a decent race but Frederic Chopin looks great value at 9/2 with powers.

Trainer could have across the card double with wiki tiki at Southwell . Then again I may look very silly at around 1645 tomorrow ( wouldn't be the first time)!

[The Situation]

Stunned to see Abi Scarlet as big as 9/2 for the 15:40 at Southwell.

[rounders123]

WPM has the final call on the plans for all horses in the yard, that rule will still stand even for an owner of Ricci's stature with the slight addendum that Willies decision will be whatever Ricci has already decided.

I don't know if you saw Ricci's interview after Doncaster, it was interesting that he said that he does have a clear preference and so does his wife, I sensed that hers was the same preference. I can only think that if there is a clear preference it must be for the churdle - Owners like him do not lie awake at night dreaming of winning the Mares or the Stayers.

I did see it and was what finally prompted me to write that. A holding ones counsel interview if ever there was one.

[horatio1]

Stunned to see Abi Scarlet as big as 9/2 for the 15:40 at Southwell.

Not much between the front 3 IMO , so Abi prob the value alright. Hannah's turn has a great track record but must be is on a high enough mark and mappin time won well lto but was helped by the fav breaking down. Good luck.

Frederic Chopin is only 5/2 now in the 1630 looks to have the Tate horse to beat.

[horatio1]

Stunned to see Abi Scarlet as big as 9/2 for the 15:40 at Southwell.

Unbelievable price well played

[poprock]

Haven't fancied a horse as much in a long time as I fancy Ghostwing 16:10 Southwell tomorrow. His guide price on the Atr card was 10s and with timeform highlighting him I was hoping to get 5's or 6's feeling he was probably Value at anything over 3/1.

He opened 4/1 with bet 365 this afternoon and having got a small amount on at 3's is currently best price 5/2.

He has ran only twice over c&d finishing second and first, Breaking the track record which still stands off a mark of 75. Carried 9-7 that day and races off a mark of 54 tomorrow carrying 9-1. While the race he won is almost 2 years ago he has only ran at southwell twice since, finishing 2nd over 6f and a bad run from a mark of 81.

He returned from a break to get what was a very easy ride last week at Lingfield for new trainer Tony Carroll and that convinced me he will be spot on for tomorrow. I suppose it throws up the old question of whether you should back a horse even if you feel his price is slightly wrong. I know in the long run that will lead to a loss but when you fancy one so strongly can you really watch it win and be content that you did the right thing from a value point of view ?

Any views?

running tomorrow in the 8.00 kemptom

[horatio1]

running tomorrow in the 8.00 kemptom

Has to have a good shout with a decent draw .

[The Situation]

Good card at Meydan today.

Ihtimal attracting money in the 1000 guineas but you'd be taking plenty for granted backing her at such short odds. The class horse on last years form but progression from 2-3 is never certain. First run since September, with a long campaign ahead of her I'd doubt she'll be fully at it from the get go today, has never run on the tapeta either which is a ? for any horse.

The other Godolphin horse Wedding Ring looks very big at 5/1. Won the trial race here a few weeks ago in quite striking fashion, came with a late burst off a slow pace in the style of a very decent filly. Is entitled to come on from the run today from a draw that will suit her hold up style.

Also like Zahee in race 6 ew at 12/1.

[poprock]

Good card at Meydan today.

Ihtimal attracting money in the 1000 guineas but you'd be taking plenty for granted backing her at such short odds. The class horse on last years form but progression from 2-3 is never certain. First run since September, with a long campaign ahead of her I'd doubt she'll be fully at it from the get go today, has never run on the tapeta either which is a ? for any horse.

The other Godolphin horse Wedding Ring looks very big at 5/1. Won the trial race here a few weeks ago in quite striking fashion, came with a late burst off a slow pace in the style of a very decent filly. Is entitled to come on from the run today from a draw that will suit her hold up style.

Also like Zahee in race 6 ew at 12/1.

Just going through that race today, what did you make of the russian horse Sign of Lucky,
Not much to go on really, his times are decent, no accountability on those for obvious reasons
Doug Watson trainer since yesterday, new owner yesterday too, just an interesting one
to look at

[The Situation]

Just going through that race today, what did you make of the russian horse Sign of Lucky,
Not much to go on really, his times are decent, no accountability on those for obvious reasons
Doug Watson trainer since yesterday, new owner yesterday too, just an interesting one
to look at

Think it has a little less bollocks than you're giving credit for.

[poprock]

Think it has a little less bollocks than you're giving credit for.

Force of habit really.

Not giving much credit either way

[horatio1]

Marnane and halford burning it up in the desert

[mcnugget]

Roi du Mee is a big price tomorrow imo there are plenty of holes in the other runners. First lieutenant sets the standard but is short enough and won't relish an out and out slog, tidal bay has surely deteriorated a couple of pounds from the 12 Lexus form, Lyreen is a nice horse but too short and not far off Lord Windermere or Texas Jack, the three of them being a little off top class and in my book not far at all ahead of Roi de Mee. Last instalment another nice horse but a prime bounce candidate and plenty short.

Long story short RDM value at 20s.

Also think Don Cossack was a huge price but he is shortening, could see him (deservedly) go off at evens.

[The Situation]

Looks like Shawkantango may open 3rd fav for the Southwell 5f claimer, he's won the last two races here at this level on the snaaf.

[siucra1]

Great day at Leopardstown yesterday,met some poker players and flipper who I have not seen for ages. Lucky to get Lipinskey beat in the 2nd at 25/1, the guys had a tip,
wonder had that fella Noel anything to do with this?

[siucra1]

Lol, o on another note Your Acc has been closed,dont like winning punters

[horatio1]

Very first blade ew in the first at Southwell and fruit pastille win

[amberleaf]

Very first blade ew in the first at Southwell and fruit pastille win

Stuck a score e/w on mucky molly in the first this morning with morris getting the leg up for the first time,she fell out of the stalls lto at kempton where she finished 11th,but has broke well,ran up with the pace and ran on for a few place efforts in the past at southwell,bit of a pays your money & takes your chance about her but sure aren't they all,best of luck with your falla anyways.

[horatio1]

Very first blade ew in the first at Southwell and fruit pastille win

I give up!

[scraz]

I think darnathean is worth a speculative ew tomorrow. Won here over a 2 pound higher mark.ran well few outings ago at kempton in a better race.currently 12/1 with Pp but will be surprised if it goes off double figures...defo only a matter of when..imo of course. 2.30lingfield

[Thefonze]

I think darnathean is worth a speculative ew tomorrow. Won here over a 2 pound higher mark.ran well few outings ago at kempton in a better race.currently 12/1 with Pp but will be surprised if it goes off double figures...defo only a matter of when..imo of course. 2.30lingfield

I watch this horse closely and I have won fortunes on him, today won't be his day, to far for him. One way or another should go very close however back up to 7f.

[The Situation]

I watch this horse closely and I have won fortunes on him, today won't be his day, to far for him. One way or another should go very close however back up to 7f.

Expand on why you think this is the case?

[horatio1]

I watch this horse closely and I have won fortunes on him, today won't be his day, to far for him. One way or another should go very close however back up to 7f.

He Is a popular horse this fonze. I stuck him in the tracker after his 6th jan run when given a poor app ride with the note " only over 7f at ling". He has run over c&d twice producing a win and a second.

[scraz]

It is 7f today

[horatio1]

Yeah I was asking fonze why he thought it was too far.

[Thefonze]

Yeah I was asking fonze why he thought it was too far.

His last win at lingfield was on turf, I think he should be tried over 6 as he has speed. He had 2 wins last year but was dropped in grade to win the first and restore his confidence over an easy 7 at Brighton. Today he will most likely track leaders abd fade as there is pace in the race

[Thefonze]

How did the race go?
Looking at tomorrow I fancy kauto stone ew, I felt he ran much better lay time out and he will like the step up in trip. He is good value at 25s
Also our father at Haydock looks like a good bet, excuses have to be made for last time bit the race lacks much depth and all the leading fancies had hard racers last time out

[horatio1]

How did the race go?
Looking at tomorrow I fancy kauto stone ew, I felt he ran much better lay time out and he will like the step up in trip. He is good value at 25s
Also our father at Haydock looks like a good bet, excuses have to be made for last time bit the race lacks much depth and all the leading fancies had hard racers last time out

Didn't see it but he finished fourth of course to scupper the ew players

[The Situation]

They gave Kingscote an easy lead which is pretty detrimental thing to do at Lingfield, and writing was on the wall from a long way out. FWIW I wouldn't rate the horse at all, will prob pick up a weak handicap at some point down the line if his mark continues to plummit. 7 does look his beat trip imo.

[Wesley Harms]

So we are all in agreement that The New One is the champion in waiting yes?

[NoRiverRequired]

So we are all in agreement that The New One is the champion in waiting yes?

Gun to my head right now id have to back TNO ya.

What a race though, think im gona day trip it over on the Tue- for that race alone it'll be worth it.

[scraz]

Few for later

6.15. Edamame- hard to judge last outing as was only 3 runner race but surely should be good enough here.smullen booked is the obvious positive

6.45 shes no simple ran well here lto over the mile when third off tonights mark.that race has ok form with the winner rated in the early 80s and the 4 th winning since.he looks open to improvement

7.15 mr bounty ew.second time backing. This fella so hoping tonight he wins.takes a drop in the weights.lto race looks better race.does enter into unknown territory over 5f but hoping he will lead from front


Fingers crossed