And the penny finally drops,did a little reading up on james willoughby and obviously need to do much more,cheers lads.
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IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)
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Originally posted by amberleaf View PostAnd the penny finally drops,did a little reading up on james willoughby and obviously need to do much more,cheers lads.
There's a huge amount of literature on it, mostly written from a US perspective, guys like Beyer, Brohamer, Davidowitz, James Quinn would be some key authors in the field. I'd definitely recommend having a read of any of Beyer's books for some interesting reading, he has quite an anecdotal, conversational style of writing so they make for interesting, fun and easy reading for any racing fan. From a UK perspective, Mordin on Time, despite being criticised in quarters and slightly outdated, is a pretty easy reading introduction to speed ratings, pace etc.
Plenty of articles out there from guys like Willoughby, Mordin, and Simon Rowlands (who like Gimmeabreak noted is really approachable and sent me a few articles when i was getting into a few years ago as well as answering any queries I had) that can be sought out and looked at.
I'm a bit rusty and out of the loop on any modern updates and recent articles, so can't give you any recent pieces worth checking out. And again as mentioned earlier, it's worth bearing in mind that it's very hard for Irish racing given the utter contempt shown by Irish racecourses and racing authorities for publicising the kind of information needed for pace handicapping. If there's any areas you're particularly interested in, give me a shout and i can probably dig out some info from my old databases and harddrives, but as I say it's a few years since I compiled my own figures.
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Guest
Rarely bet on nags gamboooooll
Single EW
Sword Fish @ Guaranteed Price (7/1)WinOpen
4:10 Punchestown (23:10 ICT)
Stake: €76.00Potential Returns: €408.50
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Just watched it again. I think he shouldnt have been if the front rank and should have maybe just hunted un behind. The jockey then go a bit anxious and started chasing him up then when the pace increased.
Turning in he was well behind yet staying on better than most.
Now. Ive been thinking about this the last couple of weeks. I think Willie Mullins is fcuking around with the preparations and his thoughts on Annie Power and will he wont he go for the Champion Hurdle. Just too much faffing out of him and to me sending him on a GB campaign is so unlike him and indicated to me hes keeping him a mile away from Hurricane Fly.
Too much of this shit about his campaign for too long in interviews ''Ah we havent sat down and talked about it'' etc but if i was Ricci id be furious. You can actually see Mullins squirming when Annie Powers campaign path is put to him. I have no doubt if Hurricane Fly was a waning horse Annie Power would proudly be his flag bearer on the champion hurdle so just because both of them are in form what should change?.
In my opinion he should quickly accept that they are on a collision course in the champion and may the best horse win. Instead hes fcuking about with an undetermined plan withh Annie power.
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WPM has the final call on the plans for all horses in the yard, that rule will still stand even for an owner of Ricci's stature with the slight addendum that Willies decision will be whatever Ricci has already decided.
I don't know if you saw Ricci's interview after Doncaster, it was interesting that he said that he does have a clear preference and so does his wife, I sensed that hers was the same preference. I can only think that if there is a clear preference it must be for the churdle - Owners like him do not lie awake at night dreaming of winning the Mares or the Stayers.Turning millions into thousands
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Really like Frederic Chopin 1630 ling tomorrow . Was well backed for a shrewd outfit when returning from a break lto. Broke well but didn't want to lead and pulled hard behind the first two who crawled. He lost his place and looked to have lost all chance before flying home .
Johnstons horse is fav having battled well at Southwell but that form doesn't always translate to other aw tracks. It's a decent race but Frederic Chopin looks great value at 9/2 with powers.
Trainer could have across the card double with wiki tiki at Southwell . Then again I may look very silly at around 1645 tomorrow ( wouldn't be the first time)!
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View PostWPM has the final call on the plans for all horses in the yard, that rule will still stand even for an owner of Ricci's stature with the slight addendum that Willies decision will be whatever Ricci has already decided.
I don't know if you saw Ricci's interview after Doncaster, it was interesting that he said that he does have a clear preference and so does his wife, I sensed that hers was the same preference. I can only think that if there is a clear preference it must be for the churdle - Owners like him do not lie awake at night dreaming of winning the Mares or the Stayers.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostStunned to see Abi Scarlet as big as 9/2 for the 15:40 at Southwell.
Frederic Chopin is only 5/2 now in the 1630 looks to have the Tate horse to beat.
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostHaven't fancied a horse as much in a long time as I fancy Ghostwing 16:10 Southwell tomorrow. His guide price on the Atr card was 10s and with timeform highlighting him I was hoping to get 5's or 6's feeling he was probably Value at anything over 3/1.
He opened 4/1 with bet 365 this afternoon and having got a small amount on at 3's is currently best price 5/2.
He has ran only twice over c&d finishing second and first, Breaking the track record which still stands off a mark of 75. Carried 9-7 that day and races off a mark of 54 tomorrow carrying 9-1. While the race he won is almost 2 years ago he has only ran at southwell twice since, finishing 2nd over 6f and a bad run from a mark of 81.
He returned from a break to get what was a very easy ride last week at Lingfield for new trainer Tony Carroll and that convinced me he will be spot on for tomorrow. I suppose it throws up the old question of whether you should back a horse even if you feel his price is slightly wrong. I know in the long run that will lead to a loss but when you fancy one so strongly can you really watch it win and be content that you did the right thing from a value point of view ?
Any views?
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Good card at Meydan today.
Ihtimal attracting money in the 1000 guineas but you'd be taking plenty for granted backing her at such short odds. The class horse on last years form but progression from 2-3 is never certain. First run since September, with a long campaign ahead of her I'd doubt she'll be fully at it from the get go today, has never run on the tapeta either which is a ? for any horse.
The other Godolphin horse Wedding Ring looks very big at 5/1. Won the trial race here a few weeks ago in quite striking fashion, came with a late burst off a slow pace in the style of a very decent filly. Is entitled to come on from the run today from a draw that will suit her hold up style.
Also like Zahee in race 6 ew at 12/1.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostGood card at Meydan today.
Ihtimal attracting money in the 1000 guineas but you'd be taking plenty for granted backing her at such short odds. The class horse on last years form but progression from 2-3 is never certain. First run since September, with a long campaign ahead of her I'd doubt she'll be fully at it from the get go today, has never run on the tapeta either which is a ? for any horse.
The other Godolphin horse Wedding Ring looks very big at 5/1. Won the trial race here a few weeks ago in quite striking fashion, came with a late burst off a slow pace in the style of a very decent filly. Is entitled to come on from the run today from a draw that will suit her hold up style.
Also like Zahee in race 6 ew at 12/1.
Not much to go on really, his times are decent, no accountability on those for obvious reasons
Doug Watson trainer since yesterday, new owner yesterday too, just an interesting one
to look at
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Originally posted by poprock View PostJust going through that race today, what did you make of the russian horse Sign of Lucky,
Not much to go on really, his times are decent, no accountability on those for obvious reasons
Doug Watson trainer since yesterday, new owner yesterday too, just an interesting one
to look atProfit before people.
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Roi du Mee is a big price tomorrow imo there are plenty of holes in the other runners. First lieutenant sets the standard but is short enough and won't relish an out and out slog, tidal bay has surely deteriorated a couple of pounds from the 12 Lexus form, Lyreen is a nice horse but too short and not far off Lord Windermere or Texas Jack, the three of them being a little off top class and in my book not far at all ahead of Roi de Mee. Last instalment another nice horse but a prime bounce candidate and plenty short.
Long story short RDM value at 20s.
Also think Don Cossack was a huge price but he is shortening, could see him (deservedly) go off at evens.
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostVery first blade ew in the first at Southwell and fruit pastille winMattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by scraz View PostI think darnathean is worth a speculative ew tomorrow. Won here over a 2 pound higher mark.ran well few outings ago at kempton in a better race.currently 12/1 with Pp but will be surprised if it goes off double figures...defo only a matter of when..imo of course. 2.30lingfield
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Originally posted by Thefonze View PostI watch this horse closely and I have won fortunes on him, today won't be his day, to far for him. One way or another should go very close however back up to 7f.
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostYeah I was asking fonze why he thought it was too far.
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How did the race go?
Looking at tomorrow I fancy kauto stone ew, I felt he ran much better lay time out and he will like the step up in trip. He is good value at 25s
Also our father at Haydock looks like a good bet, excuses have to be made for last time bit the race lacks much depth and all the leading fancies had hard racers last time out
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Originally posted by Thefonze View PostHow did the race go?
Looking at tomorrow I fancy kauto stone ew, I felt he ran much better lay time out and he will like the step up in trip. He is good value at 25s
Also our father at Haydock looks like a good bet, excuses have to be made for last time bit the race lacks much depth and all the leading fancies had hard racers last time out
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They gave Kingscote an easy lead which is pretty detrimental thing to do at Lingfield, and writing was on the wall from a long way out. FWIW I wouldn't rate the horse at all, will prob pick up a weak handicap at some point down the line if his mark continues to plummit. 7 does look his beat trip imo.Profit before people.
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Few for later
6.15. Edamame- hard to judge last outing as was only 3 runner race but surely should be good enough here.smullen booked is the obvious positive
6.45 shes no simple ran well here lto over the mile when third off tonights mark.that race has ok form with the winner rated in the early 80s and the 4 th winning since.he looks open to improvement
7.15 mr bounty ew.second time backing. This fella so hoping tonight he wins.takes a drop in the weights.lto race looks better race.does enter into unknown territory over 5f but hoping he will lead from front
Fingers crossed
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