He's quite simply a legend
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IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)
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Box ticking machine came up with nicholascopernicus as well,along with open eagle @ 14s(both scored the same),some firms paying 5 places but still ante post afaik.Swnymor looks interesting @ 25s and could shake a stick at it but failed to finish lto in chepstow over the sticks.Whiskey And Red might be worth a sniff in ffos las on sunday depending on the price.Any update on our conor?Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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I have placed a high number of bets the flat season just gone and quite soon I realized that any bet under 3.5 on betfair wasn't making any money for me. Therefore I will hopefully have time to post some false favourites that should be layed ONLY if under 3.5 on Betfair. You won't get rich but will probably make 10-20 points profit a month.
The logic is simple, they race market is more competitive in my eyes than what betfair thinks and the favourite is too short to offer value as a win bet. I factor in a substantial margin of error % when choosing which races are competitive. There won't be too many qualifying bets as the Betfair market is pretty darn accurate these days. I'll post selections here every day for 60 days and see how it goes... If all goes tits up, I'll happily return to my cave
Wolves 6.30: Muhtaris (1.92)
Wolves 7.00: Dustland Fairy (4.0)
Wolves 7.30: Orpsie (3.8)
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Originally posted by RBBlogger View PostI have placed a high number of bets the flat season just gone and quite soon I realized that any bet under 3.5 on betfair wasn't making any money for me. Therefore I will hopefully have time to post some false favourites that should be layed ONLY if under 3.5 on Betfair. You won't get rich but will probably make 10-20 points profit a month.
The logic is simple, they race market is more competitive in my eyes than what betfair thinks and the favourite is too short to offer value as a win bet. I factor in a substantial margin of error % when choosing which races are competitive. There won't be too many qualifying bets as the Betfair market is pretty darn accurate these days. I'll post selections here every day for 60 days and see how it goes... If all goes tits up, I'll happily return to my cave
Wolves 6.30: Muhtaris (1.92)
Wolves 7.00: Dustland Fairy (4.0)
Wolves 7.30: Orpsie (3.8)
I will be amazed if this experiment works, it's subjective in that you choose who you lay but only if they are backed beyond a certain point.
As for our Conor, he possibly won't run till Christmas, when he will finish 2nd to hurricane fly!
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Originally posted by RBBlogger View PostI have placed a high number of bets the flat season just gone and quite soon I realized that any bet under 3.5 on betfair wasn't making any money for me. Therefore I will hopefully have time to post some false favourites that should be layed ONLY if under 3.5 on Betfair. You won't get rich but will probably make 10-20 points profit a month.
The logic is simple, they race market is more competitive in my eyes than what betfair thinks and the favourite is too short to offer value as a win bet. I factor in a substantial margin of error % when choosing which races are competitive. There won't be too many qualifying bets as the Betfair market is pretty darn accurate these days. I'll post selections here every day for 60 days and see how it goes... If all goes tits up, I'll happily return to my cave
Wolves 6.30: Muhtaris (1.92)
Wolves 7.00: Dustland Fairy (4.0)
Wolves 7.30: Orpsie (3.8)
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I have placed a high number of bets the flat season just gone and quite soon I realized that any bet under 3.5 on betfair wasn't making any money for me. Therefore I will hopefully have time to post some false favourites that should be layed ONLY if under 3.5 on Betfair. You won't get rich but will probably make 10-20 points profit a month.
The laying system basically marks races where I think the fav should be 5/1 or higher using my own tissue price and therefore I want to lay the favourite and/or second favourite in that race which are under 3.5 on Betfair. Bets will be placed close to off time. I use 3.5 as a cut off point so I can estimate potential profits and I also feel comfortable laying that price. My average lay price should be less than 3.5 which will increase the ROI but I also definitely over estimated my potential profits earlier -
make 10-20 points profit a month
I would also urge people to dust off your old systems that may have made money 10 years ago and run them over a recent sample size to see if they are back in profit. I've seen some of mine back making profit again over the Summer with just a few minor tweaks and another disciplined bettor I know also confirmed the same.
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don't think it classes as aftertiming if it doesn't involve the poster............. just got 2 calls within 10 mins from mates. 1st lad did a 100 treble last nite of Rupert lamb/dikiali/melodic rendevez, happy days got a bit over 2k
......... but not to be outdone the other mate did a 25e/w treble on the way to a scan with his partner of Kenny the captain/levitate/jack dexter to give a return of just over 11k.
ive a tenner accume on the darts that may give back around 200............. think I need new friends & a new hobby don't really need the 200 tho coz drinks are on them tonight
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Originally posted by underachievement View Postdon't think it classes as aftertiming if it doesn't involve the poster............. just got 2 calls within 10 mins from mates. 1st lad did a 100 treble last nite of Rupert lamb/dikiali/melodic rendevez, happy days got a bit over 2k
......... but not to be outdone the other mate did a 25e/w treble on the way to a scan with his partner of Kenny the captain/levitate/jack dexter to give a return of just over 11k.
ive a tenner accume on the darts that may give back around 200............. think I need new friends & a new hobby don't really need the 200 tho coz drinks are on them tonight
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Think Politeness is a fair bit overpriced at 20/1 in the Carlisle 3:00. Showed some ability here last month that can be built up imo against two market leaders today both with their first runs of the season making their hurdling debuts in tough conditions that will really test their fitness levels. Looks the type of race with upset potential.Last edited by The Situation; 11-11-13, 14:13.Profit before people.
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Little unusual to see eoin doyle sending one to wolverhampton(Indian Scout in the 5.50)has ran well at dundalk off the mark before and holds entry in kempton the following day,with ben curtis booked on both (3 rides in wolves & only booking in kempton,trainers only horse in england).off the track for the bones of a year tho.Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Lay fav in following races if under 3.5
Lingfield 12.30 - Tee it up Tommo -
L 1.30 - Sir Robert Cheval
K 8.00 - Golden Jubilee looks like the probable favourite at the moment
@Fonze Bank is 20 points based around liability. If my max liability per lay is €25, then I use a €500 bank. The way things are going I may need to pad it out:-)
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Originally posted by RBBlogger View PostLay fav in following races if under 3.5
Lingfield 12.30 - Tee it up Tommo -
L 1.30 - Sir Robert Cheval
K 8.00 - Golden Jubilee looks like the probable favourite at the moment
@Fonze Bank is 20 points based around liability. If my max liability per lay is €25, then I use a €500 bank. The way things are going I may need to pad it out:-)No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.
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Just checked the Tote returns from Dundalk to see how much money my Placepot play made me, 2 winning lines from 8 for a near 25% loss
I do recall it once paying odds on at an English course some time ago but €3.10 is the smallest dividend I've seen in Ireland.Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
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Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
SPOILERIt was very touch and go whether we let him go on the ground. We waited until Mark rode in the first to make a final decision. The ground was fine but he'd be better with a bit of an ease. He won well going away and he's a brilliant jumper when he gets it right. That run will bring him on a tonne and he was only getting going at the end. We might go for the Grade 3 at Fairyhouse and if we go for that we'll probably give him a bit of a break after that. We'd like to give him a break as he's been on the go for a while. Gelding him has really made a man of him. He's really filled out all over. A lot of the family improve with time and he's a half brother to Third Intention (a Grade 2 hurdles winner cross-channel) so he's got a lot going for him.Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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5 wins out of 5 is pretty good going I think every would agree with my selections so far.. oh wait these are lay tips! Even the one horse that came second got promoted to first I shall be retiring to my cave at www.rakeback-blogger.com to continue this joyful experiment from tomorrow! O.k lets see If my lay selections for today all win as well!
any horse under 3.50 in these races qualify!
Kempt 5.20
Kempt 5.50
South 3.50
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Originally posted by RBBlogger View Post5 wins out of 5 is pretty good going I think every would agree with my selections so far.. oh wait these are lay tips! Even the one horse that came second got promoted to first I shall be retiring to my cave at www.rakeback-blogger.com to continue this joyful experiment from tomorrow! O.k lets see If my lay selections for today all win as well!
any horse under 3.50 in these races qualify!
Kempt 5.20
Kempt 5.50
South 3.50
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yup,no orgilgo bay tomorrow,barry orr from betfair was saying that they did a little filming at manor farm,reckons nicholls was very sweet on art mauresque for the trial (cheltenham 12.40),could be worth a pop @ 4/1.box ticking machine landed on Johns Spirit @ 8/1 for the gold cup with powers paying 5 places.Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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The Paddy Power has been dominated by the younger chasers in recent years, Little Josh was the only 8+ winner in the last decade, the heavier weights have also been more to the forefront despite seemingly being poorly handicaped, the likes of Al Ferof, Traquil Sea, our Vic and Exotic dancer all winning carrying hefty weights. Previous course wins, first runs of the season and less than 5 hc chase runs also trend v strongly so I'd be inclined to side with Rajdhani Express. Not too sure if SWC is value for his 5lbs thoughProfit before people.
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Some good racing the weekend, The Liquidator & Dodging bullets were very impressive in Cheltenham.
Was in Punchestown Sunday, bit dissapointed with Don Cossack, didnt seem to find anything when push came to shove.
Jurys out a bit on him just yet.Hopefully he'l progress, have him in my Ten to follow!
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Originally posted by Howard Finkel View PostI Wasn't as impressed as most people seem to be with Dodging Bullets. Would back him for an arkle with counterfeit
Still hard to fault his run, bar getting in a bit close to couple of fences its was a pretty smart round.
Briar Hill out over hurdles tomorrow in Wexford apparently,another potential star for Mullins.
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Cheers Buddy in Dundalk 20:50.
Opened at 112/1 and has now been changed to 12/1.
Trader misclick? If you had a bet at 112/1 would they honour it?This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakObviously a mistake and they obviously wont honor it.
As it happens Cheers Buddy is my only bet today. The 16/1 is an obnoxiously big price.This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
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Originally posted by Mellor View PostThey often contact you and give you the option.
If they don't then the bet probably will be void.This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
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Solid!
Any chance of them honoring my 112/1? To the papers!!!!!This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
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Would I be the only one who hasn't lost faith in Long Run yet? I mean 12's for a horse whose won more grade 1's than any horse in the field, has placed in grade 1's nearly as much as the entire field combined, last years form figures of 2132 is not that of a horse as rapidly in regression as people would have you believe. Always seems to improve after first time out, ok was a particularly poor run lto but is reported to have scoped badly. Think he's a horse who went from being over rated in his early days to under rated now. 9/2 the biggest SP he's gone off at in his five years racing(mainly top class races), nearly getting 3x that here.Profit before people.
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Originally posted by The Situation View PostWould I be the only one who hasn't lost faith in Long Run yet? I mean 12's for a horse whose won more grade 1's than any horse in the field, has placed in grade 1's nearly as much as the entire field combined, last years form figures of 2132 is not that of a horse as rapidly in regression as people would have you believe. Always seems to improve after first time out, ok was a particularly poor run lto but is reported to have scoped badly. Think he's a horse who went from being over rated in his early days to under rated now. 9/2 the biggest SP he's gone off at in his five years racing(mainly top class races), nearly getting 3x that here.
I do think hes overpriced at 12's for sure though.
He basically ran through a fence lto and that led to him scoping badly, apparently a bleed.
He has far less question marks over him in the race than CueCard for example, who is as short as 15/2 with some firms.
Went with Tidal Bay ew @10's yesterday myself.
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Jennies Jewel runs tomorrow in Navan in another handicap with similar conditions to Naas a few weeks ago.
Its an ultra competitive race and my feeling is that the handicapper has been quite harsh raising her three pounds for not winning last time so even if she runs her race she's likely to run in to one or two with a small edge at the weights.
Having said that she's in great form at the moment and very keen to run a race so much so that there is a danger she may get a bit over excited and damage her chances during the preliminaries tomorrow.
The 10/1 with PP paying 4 places feels like a decent price but I'm too close and too anxious to be sure. Tote and BF place markets are probably the place to play.Turning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View PostJennies Jewel runs tomorrow in Navan in another handicap with similar conditions to Naas a few weeks ago.
Its an ultra competitive race and my feeling is that the handicapper has been quite harsh raising her three pounds for not winning last time so even if she runs her race she's likely to run in to one or two with a small edge at the weights.
Having said that she's in great form at the moment and very keen to run a race so much so that there is a danger she may get a bit over excited and damage her chances during the preliminaries tomorrow.
The 10/1 with PP paying 4 places feels like a decent price but I'm too close and too anxious to be sure. Tote and BF place markets are probably the place to play.
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