IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[Pat Mustard]

Woolston Ferry 3.30 Bath. Think I put this one up before. Off a winnable mark and yard in good form. 8/1 at the mo.

[underachievement]

I was in Noel Meades this morning for stable tour - I took notes on a not so consistent basis.

• Chancol - seemed to suggest he could win a bumper
• Dylan Ross - been disappointing, didnt seem to be holding any confidence.
• Ned Buntline - a giant, goes over fences, should bring them to all the top meetings. He was very very bullish about him.
• Outlawed Tunes - will start in a bumper but nothing to give you any confidence about him.
• Rory Mac - seemed to suggest he could win a bumper
• Ally Cascade - has been disappointing, my take was that is he didnt win first time up this season then you can write him off.
• Wounded Warrior - he loves everything he has done so far, really seemed to like him, he will want it soft
• Native Realm - poor on the flat, little confidence about him, does jump hurdles well so that is the last roll of the dice for him.
• The Contender - well liked, seemed to suggest he could win a bumper
• Realt Dubh - nothing to learn here - in good form and looking forward to him.
• Monksland - in good spirits, stays hurdling, 20/24f conditions hurdles over the winter - should be winning his fair share. Stayers Hurdle the pipe dream.
• Couleur France - disappointed them after debut, he has strengthened up and filled out very well for his summer break. Will start in a bumper and is expected to be a different proposition. Seemed to suggest he could win one.
• Mullaghanoe River - goes over fences, "exciting", Noel really seems to like him a lot. I sense they are expecting good things.
• The Herds Garden - Meh
• Avidius Cassius - might make a chaser
• Didntitellya - hopefully win a bumper, wasnt brimfull of confidence
• Road To Riches - seemed to suggest that he has 'found the keys to the engine', has been trained differently, will be kept fresh, 3m/fences/soft no problem to him.
• Harvey Logan - was 2nd on debut when Nina wasnt hard on him, were keeping him for Land Rover bumper but he clipped heels. He thinks alot of him. Will win his bumper.
• Waxies Dargle - he was bought as he beat Harvey Logan on debut which says alot.
• Wildebeest - no enthusiasm
• Sunrae Shadow - really likes him, he is very very happy with him. no concrete plans.
• Rock Of Glenstal - loves everything about him so far. Will be kept for a 4yo bumper.
• Perfect Smile - Undependable
• 4yo G, Felmisnfirth ex Tricky Present - Lovely animal, loves him to bits.
• Festive Felon - has disappointed, can win a race, but it wont be in Cheltenham.
• Apache Stronghold - Has strengthened up massively for his break. Noel loves him. 20f Novice Hurdles, will do very well.
• Texas Jack - feels he doesnt stay 3m, will start in the 2nd season chase in Down Royal.
• Bose Ikard - very ground dependent.
• Gaius Marius - will be a very different proposition over hurdles this season - expected to win his share.
• Honourable Emperor - needs fast ground, will campaign in Dundalk over the winter before looking at hurdle races in the spring.
• Heck Thomas - was very guarded here, I suspect this means that he is likely to run in better class maiden hurdles in an effort to get an exploitable handicap mark. Soft ground horse. Noel seems to like him.
• Another Palm - probably going the X-County route but Cork National first of all.
• Thomand - Chaser, runs in roscommon tomorrow. nothing of note.
• Tulsa Jack - seemed to suggest he would be winning his bumper.
• Curley Bill - rates him very highly, will carry on as is, 12f handicap in Royal Ascot next season the long term target.
• Cross Appeal - will pitch up in same type of races as he has been running in. great servant for the yard.
• Nailed On - said enough to say he really likes him, no plans yet.
• Pandorama - back and in good shape - hopefully get a full season out of him.
• Corbally Ghost - likes him an awful lot but not an easy horse train. No plans but rated very highly.
• Blissful Moment - doesnt put it in on the track.
• On Your Eoin - absolutely loves him but a very difficult horse train. Will win a bumper if/when runs.
• Sword Of Destiny - was injured, recovery doesnt seem to have been a success, not optimistic.
• Tom Horn - missed cut in Plate/Kerry National - goes in the Munster National. Didnt say anything to put you off him.
• Pat Garrett - likes him but still a horse for next year - will win his share of races
• Formidableopponent - very disappointing thus far
• 4yo G, Fleminsfirth ex Miss Brandywell - backward horse but a nice horse.
• Maxim Gorky - Noel really likes this horse, he has a chequered past, Davy felt he was going to win in Listowel until he smashed the 2nd last. Noel said he feels there is a big day in him, suggested that The Boylesports Hurdle would be within his range. Will run in the Irish Ces in 2 weeks if MOL consents.
  [U]
• Ange Balfre - runs in Roscommon Monday, will be there at the business end, different horse for summer break.
• Protaras - been disappointing, needs fast ground.
• Ispos De Berlais - thinks he has figured him out. Needs soft. My interpretation was to get him fresh first time up, if he doesnt win that day forget about him.
• Duplicate Daughter - limited ability
• Six Stone Ned - harshly treated by handicapper, 20f chases of a fast run 2m would suit.
• Harchie - 1/2 bro to Harchibald - very backward
• Very Wood - very exciting prospect. probably start back in a bumper.
• Wes Hardin - he likes him
• 4yo G, Scorpion ex Sister Swing - likes this horse a lot. he is a very good jumper.
• 3yo F, Kalanisi ex Maggies Oscar - speaks very well of her.

I didnt take notes on everything, 85 horses in the yard. I count 10 for JP, 15 for Mrs Patricia Hunt, 10 for Gigginstown. Just based on what Noel was saying at any point for one reason or another I circled Apache Stronghold, Ipsos De Berlais and On Your Eoin. I asked Davy Condon afterwards what his pick of the bunch was and he didnt hesitate to put forward Apache Stronghold and Mullaghanoe River.

7/4 from 2's in the last at the mo

[Thefonze]

Have backed intello in the arc, reckon he will stay and is trained by the master. Weather forecast looks ok also so ground should be good. Any other ideas,?
Looking further ahead I think Ted veale is the one in at Newmarket Saturday week, his 4th behind tiger cliff looks better every time I watch it, believe they have found the key to how he should be ridden on the flat.

[amberleaf]

all imo of course but not too sure about ted veale tbh,had a look back at the cesarewitch over the past 10 years and 7 winners had their first run of the year in apr/may,and 1 had a spin on the flat in march.the other 2 did run in cheltenham,in 06 detroit city won the t.h. in a very fast time and ended up unbeaten for the year (7 from 7),in 03 landing light ran in the c.h. finishing 7th.last year countrywide flame won the t.h. and found one too good in the cesarewitch.ted veale won the grade 3 v.o.b. and was well beaten in galway.fair enough he'll be on a very good flat mark in comparison to the sticks and ticks all the right boxes but as yet wouldn't be rushing out to grab the 12/1 in what will be a 30 plus runner hcp with more plots than a episode of murder she wrote at a swingers night.

fwiw decent preview of the arc here

http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=71952&headline=A-look-ahead-to-the-Arc

[corigi]

all imo of course but not too sure about ted veale tbh,had a look back at the cesarewitch over the past 10 years and 7 winners had their first run of the year in apr/may,and 1 had a spin on the flat in march.the other 2 did run in cheltenham,in 06 detroit city won the t.h. in a very fast time and ended up unbeaten for the year (7 from 7),in 03 landing light ran in the c.h. finishing 7th.last year countrywide flame won the t.h. and found one too good in the cesarewitch.ted veale won the grade 3 v.o.b. and was well beaten in galway.fair enough he'll be on a very good flat mark in comparison to the sticks and ticks all the right boxes but as yet wouldn't be rushing out to grab the 12/1 in what will be a 30 plus runner hcp with more plots than a episode of murder she wrote at a swingers night.

fwiw decent preview of the arc here
http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid...ead-to-the-Arc

Why do you think that is good preview? Half the article is about the weather and hardly in-depth article about the runners.

Obviously the weather will determine how the market shapes up on the day and leading up to the race but after that preview was very poor imo.

[amberleaf]

Why do you think that is good preview? Half the article is about the weather and hardly in-depth article about the runners.

Obviously the weather will determine how the market shapes up on the day and leading up to the race but after that preview was very poor imo.

ya agree not much good for the ante-post,but i found it decent given the lack of Information we have at this stage.i'm sure more in-depth previews will be found later in the week when we know the full list of runners including supplemented horses,draw,more up to date goings etc.Wohlers comments were interesting at the very least.it would be nice to get a full preview of every horse at this stage but dont think we would get that from a main line racing sites such as rp or atr.not to mind a irish racing site.

[Thefonze]

all imo of course but not too sure about ted veale tbh,had a look back at the cesarewitch over the past 10 years and 7 winners had their first run of the year in apr/may,and 1 had a spin on the flat in march.the other 2 did run in cheltenham,in 06 detroit city won the t.h. in a very fast time and ended up unbeaten for the year (7 from 7),in 03 landing light ran in the c.h. finishing 7th.last year countrywide flame won the t.h. and found one too good in the cesarewitch.ted veale won the grade 3 v.o.b. and was well beaten in galway.fair enough he'll be on a very good flat mark in comparison to the sticks and ticks all the right boxes but as yet wouldn't be rushing out to grab the 12/1 in what will be a 30 plus runner hcp with more plots than a episode of murder she wrote at a swingers night.

fwiw decent preview of the arc here
http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid...ead-to-the-Arc

You can ignore Ted's run at Galway, trainer said as much. I believe they learned a lot from that day and his last run, his rating is very favorable and he goes on all ground. Have included him in a large enough lucky 15 with intello, mount athos in Melbourne cup and fort lerned in breeders cup classic.

[The Situation]

Fair to say Treve is definitely the hype horse for the Arc, noises from connections could not be more bullish. One of the best flat fields Ive ever seen. Took a little bit of 16's on Leading Light.

[Thefonze]

Just read Ted veale unlikely to run, that is a total c#nt for my bet

[Strewelpeter]

Jennies Jewel runs in a MAres 20F graded hurdle at Gowran today where the conditions seem to be very much in her favour.
Harringtons run Cailin Annamh who is an exciting prospect who is on the upgrade but according to the Handicapper she would need to improve another ten pounds to fininsh afead of us. Jesie has always said that she would only campaign her on good ground so it is something of a surprise to see it running after the rain of the last few days. Its hard to know what the depth of quality of the races it won are but my cousin owns the one that was second to it last day and is not best pleased with the inferred handicap mark they will be getting.
On the other hand someone I know was talking to Eamonn Leigh from Harringtons yard yesterday and he was very bullish saying that they haven't found the bottom of the horse yet, she will not mind the change in the ground, Barry was keen to run her and he would know what he's up against.
I was lucky to get a tiny bit of 2.9 matched on Betfair last night that will help dissuade me from going in too hard at 2.3

I wouldn't want to put anyone off backing her as I'd imagine that if you take Harrington's out of the race she's long odds on to take it.

Ridiculously nervous - its far more stressful when she's the one they have to beat instead of the other way around.
How on earth did GAB ever get a nights sleep between Christmas and March

Here she is cooling down after a nice bit of schooling work last Saturday

[DeadParrot]

so, you are saying we should empty the clip ?

[kpnuts]

Good man Tony. Hope to see you in the winner's enclosure later. Be lucky!

[Pat Mustard]

Good luck SP

[The Situation]

All the best, as aside I thought twin plan was the ew bet of the day at 7's.

[pokerhand]

Good luck SP... Just put a little on the str f/c there for the interest...

[DeadParrot]

Best of luck dude

[pokerhand]

Good luck SP... Just put a little on the str f/c there for the interest...

Should have done a rev f/c

Unlucky SP. the other horse was a beast...

[Thefonze]

Dandy boy tomorrow at redcar, missed break last day at curragh but only beaten 2 lengths in the end. Then for the arc on Sunday ppwers are each way first 4 and a quarter the odds, intello and al Kazeem each way for me.

[Strewelpeter]

Ugh.

[Thefonze]

Good run Intello, winner was class.

Meanwhile i missed out on 100k today when Winter Alchemy could only finish 4th in a 3m handicap chase!

[rounders123]

selectionsTE=Thefonze;748694]Good run Intello, winner was class.

Meanwhile i missed out on 100k today when Winter Alchemy could only finish 4th in a 3m handicap chase!

I backed him as well and was At Longchamp shouting him home like a winner because you can't make shit from the French language commentator. The French are the most chilled out race I've experienced.
Unlucky. What selections would have been the 100k scoop?

[Thefonze]

I had glencree, honourable gent and push me with him in a lucky 15! Way my luck had been would have settled for 1 winner!
Have been to an arc and it's a great day out, moonlight cloud was amazing, backed the 2nd but did not mind getting beat by her.

[westlife]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-nwSp0MZqE

stop showing off... you only own half of it!

[westlife]

Interesting runner on a horrible days racing...
Bison Grass in the last at Ponty.

66/1 first time out in a decent maiden a kempton 18 days ago. Horrendous draw (widest of all) and slowly away, he settled well at the back of the pack, made ground nicely from the back, and under hands and heels, stayed on to finish under 6L off the winner.

The jolly was beaten by a horse who has now achieved a rating of 100+ but there has to be some concern about a horse that has not run for 6 months!!

At 10/1 with Ladbrokes I think he's a good bet each way and the 5/6 in a match bet (PP) against Rust (who looks highly regressive) looks an absolute steal!

[westlife]

Interesting runner on a horrible days racing...
Bison Grass in the last at Ponty.

66/1 first time out in a decent maiden a kempton 18 days ago. Horrendous draw (widest of all) and slowly away, he settled well at the back of the pack, made ground nicely from the back, and under hands and heels, stayed on to finish under 6L off the winner.

The jolly was beaten by a horse who has now achieved a rating of 100+ but there has to be some concern about a horse that has not run for 6 months!!

At 10/1 with Ladbrokes I think he's a good bet each way and the 5/6 in a match bet (PP) against Rust (who looks highly regressive) looks an absolute steal!

Flying at the death to be beaten 3/4L But layed the jolly and lumped on the match bet so not so bad.... bit sick to be beaten by a rag though!

[rounders123]

Great spot WP!. Got in on 5/6 on the match. It subsequently went to 4/7!. The horse whooped the match bet and nearly scooped the race!.

[amberleaf]

notice Trêve will defend her crown in 2014,power have her @ 4/1 reckon there's worse things a falla could be throwing his spare change at over the next year.

http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=72091&headline=Treve-to-defend-her-crown

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjERZEXqD0Y

[corigi]

notice Trêve will defend her crown in 2014,power have her @ 4/1 reckon there's worse things a falla could be throwing his spare change at over the next year.

http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=72091&headline=Treve-to-defend-her-crown

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjERZEXqD0Y

Very impressive performance but she will have to carry extra 8 LBS next year. Which will mean instead of getting weight from the field like on Sunday (bar other 3 old fillies ) she will have to give them weight. 3 year old fillies have good record in the race due to weight allowance and time of the year.

What price do you think she will go off next year if she turns up on the day? 2/1 - 5/2 presuming at least 1or2 half decent 3 year old fillies turn up?

Only reason I ask is because when I do antepost bets I would need to be sure I getting enough value to justify the risk.Obviously due to the fact she could be injured before next year.

[SatNav]

TIP I just got for November

the melbourne cup. Simeneon Willie Mullins...currently at 25/1

[premierstone]

TIP I just got for November

the melbourne cup. Simeneon Willie Mullins...currently at 25/1

As big as 33/1 with Bet365 and as short as 12/1 with Boyles, prob due to the fact not guaranteed a run but should sneak in.

[amberleaf]

Very impressive performance but she will have to carry extra 8 LBS next year. Which will mean instead of getting weight from the field like on Sunday (bar other 3 old fillies ) she will have to give them weight. 3 year old fillies have good record in the race due to weight allowance and time of the year.

What price do you think she will go off next year if she turns up on the day? 2/1 - 5/2 presuming at least 1or2 half decent 3 year old fillies turn up?

Only reason I ask is because when I do antepost bets I would need to be sure I getting enough value to justify the risk.Obviously due to the fact she could be injured before next year.

not sure if you could call it value at 4/1,still would think she'll have a realistic chance if all goes well over the next 12 months.the last filly to retain the race was corrida who won as a 4 yo in 1936,won it again in 1937 and remains the only 'mare' to have won,(unfortunately for corrida she disappeared during a battle in the 2nd world war).3 yo fillies have 12 wins with 4yo fillies just the 7 wins in its 91 year history,the only other filly to win as a 3 yo and go on to win it as a 4 yo was ksar (1921/1922).so with that piece of useless information over and done with,a few very handy stats for ante post betting in this that really stuck out at me was the amount of horses that won a group 1 by 2 lengths or more that went on to win the prix de l'Arc de triomphe which is now 13 from the last 15,and course winners which is now 8 from the last 11.the longest winning distance is 6 lengths,all by colts including ribot(unbeaten in his 16 races from 5 furlongs to 1m7f on all goings),sea bird(time form rating of 145 second only to frankel at 147) so when a 3 yo filly turns up and wins by 5 lengths with a degree of comfort then you have to sit up and take notice.

[Raoul Duke III]

Taking 4/1 about any horse a year out is daftness in my eyes (certainly on the level, Quevega and Sprinter Sacre two obvious exceptions over obstacles).

[corigi]

not sure if you could call it value at 4/1,still would think she'll have a realistic chance if all goes well over the next 12 months.the last filly to retain the race was corrida who won as a 4 yo in 1936,won it again in 1937 and remains the only 'mare' to have won,(unfortunately for corrida she disappeared during a battle in the 2nd world war).3 yo fillies have 12 wins with 4yo fillies just the 7 wins in its 91 year history,the only other filly to win as a 3 yo and go on to win it as a 4 yo was ksar (1921/1922).so with that piece of useless information over and done with,a few very handy stats for ante post betting in this that really stuck out at me was the amount of horses that won a group 1 by 2 lengths or more that went on to win the prix de l'Arc de triomphe which is now 13 from the last 15,and course winners which is now 8 from the last 11.the longest winning distance is 6 lengths,all by colts including ribot(unbeaten in his 16 races from 5 furlongs to 1m7f on all goings),sea bird(time form rating of 145 second only to frankel at 147) so when a 3 yo filly turns up and wins by 5 lengths with a degree of comfort then you have to sit up and take notice.

I totally agree with your points and theory behind backing the horse to win. I think she will have cracking chance to win again next year. I was more coming from the value angle. I would probably need higher than 4/1 on a year long antepost bet when I believe the horse probably still be higher than 2/1 on the day.

Off course if you think she will go off 6/4 on the day then she would be value now.

Would you think Sprinter Sacre is value at Evens now (1 bookmaker only) when he probably going to off 1/5 if turns up on the day?

[corigi]

Taking 4/1 about any horse a year out is daftness in my eyes (certainly on the level, Quevega and Sprinter Sacre two obvious exceptions over obstacles).

I think Sprinter Sacre probably value at evens now with 1 bookmaker. I say he be 1/5 if he turns up on the day or no worse than 1/2 anyway even allowing for some wonder horse to appear out of no where. Be good back to lay on the day opportunity.

[Wesley Harms]

I think Sprinter Sacre probably value at evens now with 1 bookmaker. I say he be 1/5 if he turns up on the day or no worse than 1/2 anyway even allowing for some wonder horse to appear out of no where. Be good back to lay on the day opportunity.

Hes already on the scene, in the box next door

[corigi]

Hes already on the scene, in the box next door

I hope you dont mean Simonsig?

[amberleaf]

agree no great value at this time,but as the season goes on next year and by keeping in mind just the two very basic stats above,the 4/1(if still available at that time) could increase or decrease in value depending on result of certain 'trial' races and keep an eye to it on a ongoing basis.

[corigi]

Hes already on the scene, in the box next door

Simonsig will be very highly unlikely to be found anywhere near the champion chase come next year. No doubting he is classy horse but that makes no difference if he not running in the same race. He will be stepped up in trip and probably run in the King George. He already won the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle over 2m 5F so should stay 3m on flat track

[japeye]

WOW


Lot 253: 5,000,000gns breaks the all-time record for a horse sold at a European auction and creates a world-record price for a yearling filly... the Galileo daughter of Alluring Park bought by Mandore International for Al Shaqab Racing.
We thought yesterday's top price was stunning, well, amazingly that price was topped today - and by a filly.
As announced by the auctioneer she is a "truly a collector's item" - by a champion sire, closely related to exciting sire New Approach, a sister to Oaks winner Was and out of Listed performer by Green Desert. She was sold by Lodge Park Stud.
Ibrahim Araci opened the bidding at 500,000gns, with Charlie Gordon-Watson and John Magnier both involved to the 2 million guineas mark. At that point Gordon-Watson and Araci bowed out and Mandore stepped in. It was then a head to head through to the record price, with the Coolmore crew eventually gathering into a huddle for a final discussion.
"She is a magnificent specimen," said Nicholas de Watrigant. "We bought her sister last year and we think she could be special, we didn't want to miss this one - let's hope she is the next Treve!
"We didn't expect to pay that sort of price, but Al Shaqab Racing is keen to invest. She goes into training with Monsieur Fabre."
When asked if maybe she does not need to race at all, Watrigant laughed: "Don't let Monsieur Fabre hear you say that!" (16:21)

http://docs.tattersalls.com/cat/october/2013/253.pdf

[amberleaf]

short list for the cesarewitch newmarket so far,oriental fox,domination,lieutenant miller,cousin khee & seaside sizzler more to come as all seem to have a poor draw.

[Strewelpeter]

Wouldn't be shocked if Sonic Beat ran well in the next at Tramore, a place would be a good result.

[Strewelpeter]

FFS! if that fucking eejit of a starter had let them go first time it would have suited us a lot better.

Nice run. the lazy hoor always doing just enough to keep himself in training!

[wicklowp]

Backed this in the 1st. Having had 3 attempts at letting them go (2 of which seemed perfectly fine) starter decides that attempt No.4 was ok!

[NoRiverRequired]

Like the look of recession proof @ 25's in the Cesarewitch.
Connor King on board claiming 5 looks a nice booking.

[Strewelpeter]

Backed this in the 1st. Having had 3 attempts at letting them go (2 of which seemed perfectly fine) starter decides that attempt No.4 was ok!

Number 4 was the only one that 100% should have been called back. AFAIK that's Jenifer O'Sullivan the racing photographers horse and they were expecting a win today.

Lots of Mickey Mouse stuff at Tramore today, did you see the other gobshite who nearly got run over on the track and did himself an injury as he dived under the rail missing the horses by a matter of feet!

[Strewelpeter]

he hated the track - I thought it was a good run.

It was a great run but while everything points to him wanting a galloping track three of his best runs have been there and in Downpatrick its all very odd.
He's in a 25f one in Punchestown next week hopefully he can keep on the up. He's really likeable rogue, was delighted for him and for Andrew who minded him like a baby for two years.

[amberleaf]

Like the look of recession proof @ 25's in the Cesarewitch.
Connor King on board claiming 5 looks a nice booking.

Doubtful about the fitness tbh,no horse in the last 15 years has won this with just the one run that year,Top Cees had just the 2 runs when winning in 1999 but that was on the july course & was second in 1997(rowley),one horse had 3 runs and the rest had 4 or more,seems fitness,along with stamina and a touch of class is whats needed to land this.

[wicklowp]

Doubtful about the fitness tbh,no horse in the last 15 years has won this with just the one run that year,Top Cees had just the 2 runs when winning in 1999 but that was on the july course & was second in 1997(rowley),one horse had 3 runs and the rest had 4 or more,seems fitness,along with stamina and a touch of class is whats needed to land this.

I wouldn't never be put off by race stats or trends when making a selection on any race in fact it would be well down the list behind things like ability, ground, handicap mark etc etc, they can also be very misleading, for example how many horses in that 15 years would have run in the race only having 1 run that season I don't have the figures but I'm sure its very few. Then again I am not a winning punter so each to their own I guess. But remember stats and trends will be forever changing!

[Thefonze]

Jamaican bolt in the Sprint at York today, great shout.

[amberleaf]

I wouldn't never be put off by race stats or trends when making a selection on any race in fact it would be well down the list behind things like ability, ground, handicap mark etc etc, they can also be very misleading, for example how many horses in that 15 years would have run in the race only having 1 run that season I don't have the figures but I'm sure its very few. Then again I am not a winning punter so each to their own I guess. But remember stats and trends will be forever changing!

all imo of course and i agree that to a point,but i also think that you need a pictacular horse to win this and there,s a lot of 'also rans' in the field.there's a mix of flat & jump horses here,with plenty of pace but stamina is just as important with the distance of 2m2f will take some getting.at the end of the day there's not that many high end flat handicaps over this distance out there and from a punters point of view you only get paid on what happens on the finish line which brings in fitness.

the first thing i look for before sticking a few quid on would be value in other words

SPOILER

The only way to make a profit from betting on horse racing in the long run, is to consistently back horses at prices too high compared to their actual chance of winning.

i used just 2 reference points (fitness & stamina)and came up with a list of 15 from 36 starters (all prices from odds checker)

DOMINATION 8/1
ORIENTAL FOX 12/1
LIEUTENANT MILLER 12/1
BROXBOURNE 33/1
PLATINUM 20/1
CHIBERTA KING 25/1
FLASHMAN 50/1
EAGLE ROCK 40/1
SEASIDE SIZZLER 33/1
COUSIN KHEE 40/1
JONNY DELTA 50/1
COSIMO DE MEDICI 50/1
SIGN MANUAL 50/1
LOS NADIS 100/1
CAPELLANUS 66/1

now i'm taking a huge chance that Pallasator,smoky hill & tiger cliff wont win,but still think that the above represents value in the e/w market with most firms paying 5 places with nrnb,next reference point is class and so on and try and come up with a short list of 5 or so.should be fun

[NoRiverRequired]

Doubtful about the fitness tbh,no horse in the last 15 years has won this with just the one run that year,Top Cees had just the 2 runs when winning in 1999 but that was on the july course & was second in 1997(rowley),one horse had 3 runs and the rest had 4 or more,seems fitness,along with stamina and a touch of class is whats needed to land this.

Absolutely, one run all year is an obvious concern.

That being said he looks thrown in off an effective 77.
If he can reproduce any of the ability he showed finishing 5th in one of the most competitive Supreme novices in along time he is value @25's IMO. (coral are going 33's about him).

[amberleaf]

Absolutely, one run all year is an obvious concern.

That being said he looks thrown in off an effective 77.
If he can reproduce any of the ability he showed finishing 5th in one of the most competitive Supreme novices in along time he is value @25's IMO. (coral are going 33's about him).

yup could be huge by tomorrow evening and @ 33s cant go wrong at that price.ended up with Domination & Platinum for a few quid e/w,just hope not much more rain will fall.

[NoRiverRequired]

I fancy a horse today, it is outsider of the field, Johann Bach @ 25/1 in the last race in Dundalk.

Hmmm. I've had a decent bet on Shake the Bucket @ 12's in the same race.

[kpnuts]

Hmmm. I've had a decent bet on Shake the Bucket @ 12's in the same race.

Noel usually requires a river

[Raoul Duke III]

Hmmm. I've had a decent bet on Shake the Bucket @ 12's in the same race.

Given GAB's obsession with traveller calling-out videos, I would say this is a lock.

[wicklowp]

I fancy a horse today, it is outsider of the field, Johann Bach @ 25/1 in the last race in Dundalk.

Just been to my local Laddies to back this and it's now 12's from 25's.

[wicklowp]

Switched over in time to see him pulling a milk cart into the straight!

[Guest]

well now, isn't that lovely, Ted? At Boolavogue wins @ 8/1 - was as big as 14/1 earlier

We got a sweat here, this 2nd one wins and I'll buy you a nice carton of wine

[Dice75]

well now, isn't that lovely, Ted? At Boolavogue wins @ 8/1 - was as big as 14/1 earlier

Did the e/w double, forgot about it!

C418 going on in 15 mins

[Dice75]

Did the e/w double, forgot about it!

C418 going on in 15 mins

Balls, kinda fucked up (maybe) did Shake the Bucket as the 2nd leg by mistake