IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[amberleaf]

meh broke even yesterday,going for a small double today,in the 3.50 thurles Wise Oscar to take on the field looks reasonable,had a good run over hurdles on very sticky ground off 107 and got hammered by the hcp as a result and will be 124 over hurdles next time,taking on the bigger jumps off 101 today,ground here was very poor yesterday and shouldn't bother him too much.

in the kelso bumper Flemens Pride @ 9/4 looks fair,won well first time out on heavy ground(had Bob's Lady Tara held in second) and is entitled to come on from that,worth including at the odds with Brijomi Queen only ever running on good/soft or better.

anyways score double pays about 11/2

[wicklowp]

Going for an old favourite of mine today, Paddy Pub ew in the 3.50, although carrying top weight is 2 lbs lower than when running 4th in the Irish National, loves conditions and Townend booked.

[amberleaf]

Going for an old favourite of mine today, Paddy Pub ew in the 3.50, although carrying top weight is 2 lbs lower than when running 4th in the Irish National, loves conditions and Townend booked.

indeed,nice price as-well if he comes in.see that Spring Heeled is a nr,one less to worry about.ended up sticking a fiver each way punt on Festies Pride @ 8/1 in the beginners,has some handy point form that was franked since,going & distance should be fine.pays your money and takes your chance effort about it.

[wicklowp]

Very interesting that there is a move for the Francis Flood trained Down Under in the last (7's from 14's with ladbrokes and shortened up by all firms) no form at all but horses have been running well of late after a barren spell, the yard also has the second fav Lascalahall ridden by Davy Russell

[kpnuts]

Very interesting that there is a move for the Francis Flood trained Down Under in the last (7's from 14's with ladbrokes and shortened up by all firms) no form at all but horses have been running well of late after a barren spell, the yard also has the second fav Lascalahall ridden by Davy Russell

Betfair price 30.0 and rising like a helium rocketship!

[wicklowp]

Going for an old favourite of mine today, Paddy Pub ew in the 3.50, although carrying top weight is 2 lbs lower than when running 4th in the Irish National, loves conditions and Townend booked.

5th never competitive

[Wesley Harms]

Willie Mullins is sending a runner to Sandown tomorrow for a mares hurdle. Outside the festivals id say you could count his runners in England on one hand

[Strewelpeter]

Willie Mullins is sending a runner to Sandown tomorrow for a mares hurdle. Outside the festivals id say you could count his runners in England on one hand

Interesting runner, ostensibly she was bought as a replacement for Quvega plenty of money was spent and everyone involvtalks very highly of it.

There must have been some hiccups along the way, he has had her entered loads of times since it hacked up in great style in november. She was left in the overnights for the listed mares race that Glens Melody won when was called off at Fairyhouse but wasn't even entered for it when it was moved to Leopardstown.
WPM has so many classy mares its ridic must be real hard work finding races for them all and keeping owners happy.
I suppose if he wants this one to go to Cheltenham (what race they would go for Neptune or Bartlett I suppose ?) and this is the only race that fits the bill to give it a chance of having a competitive race.

[rounders123]

Willie Mullins is sending a runner to Sandown tomorrow for a mares hurdle. Outside the festivals id say you could count his runners in England on one hand

Unless its a run at sell on. Noticing a bit of that recently they run once in GB and are british trained after that.

[The Situation]

Mullins' record at non chelts British tracks is (albeit a small sample) very poor.

[Wesley Harms]

Mullins' record at non chelts British tracks is (albeit a small sample) very poor.

Further inspection reveals a 15/161 wins to runners ratio in the UK in the last 5 jumps seasons.

In fact his last winner away from Prestbury Park was Hedgehunter in the Grand National in 2005

[The Situation]

Further inspection reveals a 15/161 wins to runners ratio in the UK in the last 5 jumps seasons.

In fact his last winner away from Prestbury Park was Hedgehunter in the Grand National in 2005

Yeah tis not great, that market is priced very hype heavy, you'd have to feel that the Mccain horse is of value with very solid hurdles form in the bag.

[amberleaf]

yup,holds entrys in the neptune & bartlett,shop window?anyways see swan has discovery Bay in a seller in lingfield with a 5lb claimer on board,also entered in handicap with spencer booked tomorrow.both over 1m4f.

[amberleaf]

had a look at the grand national trial tomorrow at haydock,and taking 3 against the field.Monbeg Dude best priced @ 11/2 as expected scored very well,but(and there's always a but) has won 3 hcp chases which bucks the trends a little,also doesn't tend to race up with the pace which doesn't seem suit the race tactics over the years,Cannington Brook @ 8/1 again scores well,but with 8 hcp chases with 3 wins,not too sure but looks well priced so a little e/w saver for me.fairly obvious but ticks every box in the book,for me Teaforthree looks the one to be on,priced @ 5/1 a negative but is a positive every where else.and going for a half decent bet on the nose(and at the same time hoping that Giles Cross wont spoil the party)

[Strewelpeter]

Willie Mullins is sending a runner to Sandown tomorrow for a mares hurdle. Outside the festivals id say you could count his runners in England on one hand

Might have hung on for a poor second when she fell at last.

[robinblinds]

Might have hung on for a poor second when she fell at last.

It was a Listed event, so he was obviously taking the temperature for the Mares Hurdle in Chelt.

[premierstone]

It was a Listed event, so he was obviously taking the temperature for the Mares Hurdle in Chelt.

Doubt it very much, he just has too many high class mares and there isn't enough races here for them, trying to get a bit of black type across the pond.

[horatio1]

Gold falcon 1950 dun. I thought they strangled this lto over 6 never put into the race , tried to run up the arse of everything and stayed on to be nearest at finish. Runs over 7f tonight and is a decent price at 12/1.

Don't you just love Irish racing had my nuts on this last week ew, he wins it with his other runner. Decided to leave it alone tonight........ Avoiding ropes and sharp objects at the moment

[amberleaf]

Russell reckons Rogue Angel has a chance at gowran,nash reckons Hold On Julio is the way to go at haydock,Pipe thinks Red Sherlock should go well in ascot (priced 4/5 ) & i'll throw in Discovery Bay at lingfield,tomorrows yankee sorted.

[wicklowp]

Set the alarm to get up and watch Black Caviar, glad I did, broke course record with her head in her chest! Unreal.

[rounders123]

Wheres Balding?. Havent seen her on Ch4 yet and shes meant to be the lead presenter?

[Pat Mustard]

Tracker

MARODIMA (Market Rasen 15.30)

An old favourite of mine. Goes out and makes all.. Given a bit of time off and should be fresh. AP on a good thing for Hobbs but think this is defo one to have a look at in the place & backing w/o markets imo. Should be 20/1 or better in outright betting. GL me

[amberleaf]

had a look at the grand national trial tomorrow at haydock,and taking 3 against the field.Monbeg Dude best priced @ 11/2 as expected scored very well,but(and there's always a but) has won 3 hcp chases which bucks the trends a little,also doesn't tend to race up with the pace which doesn't seem suit the race tactics over the years,Cannington Brook @ 8/1 again scores well,but with 8 hcp chases with 3 wins,not too sure but looks well priced so a little e/w saver for me.fairly obvious but ticks every box in the book,for me Teaforthree looks the one to be on,priced @ 5/1 a negative but is a positive every where else.and going for a half decent bet on the nose(and at the same time hoping that Giles Cross wont spoil the party)

that went well,score on the nose for No No Mac @ 4/1 in the bumper in market rasen,to take on mccains salto chisco

[amberleaf]

and the good run continues,fired a score on Radharc Na Mara @ 3/1 in the first at southwell,down to a decent mark and has a 5lb ex with just the four runners could be a little value.since i would think most of us here have a few quid invested on oc next month,notice that both KASHMIR PEAK & SWNYMOR have entries in a class 4 hurdle doncaster on wed.be interesting to see how confident they are over hurdles,both failed to finish last time.

[amberleaf]

be-jabus,aiden has a few handy wans in the bumper tomorrow

http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=746467&meetingid=&date=2013-02-20&ref=form&refsite=

[robinblinds]

be-jabus,aiden has a few handy wans in the bumper tomorrow

http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?...=form&refsite=

I believe Joseph has been training these.

[amberleaf]

indeed,has a entry in the naas bumper over the weekend(Draco),a few in fundalk as well,Egyptian Warrior priced @ 11/10(16s for the CB),his other runner Shield with katie harrington on board @ 7/1 today.small double with Foxrock,punchestown 205 @ 4/7,form was well franked yesterday & Cheltenian @ 3/1 (drifting)in the 3.25 doncaster,first run back since winning the champion bumper a few years ago.
edit,ended up throwing in purple bay @ evens in the bumper in doncaster,getting about 11/1 for my score treble.

[amberleaf]

no joy for ap yesterday which was to be expected the way the betting went(Egyptian Warrior 11/10 out to 3/1),maybe he was announcing his arrival back in the nh,plenty of black type thats for sure.this entry he has in naas looks Interesting,Draco looks well breeding wise for this,and is not owned by themselfs,wait for the final decs. & bookings etc, me thinks

stuck a tenner e/w on media baron in the last in clonmel @ 16/1,won off 82 many moons ago but recent form is poor,is off 80 today with 7 ex and has a tongue strap for the first time,give it a whirl at the odds.

ended up doing a little irish fiver trixie with Little Boy Boru @ 4/1 in the 4.10 sedgfield,ex weld trained three kingdoms @ 5/2,2.10 sedgefield & Star Of Aragon @ 7/2 4.20 ayr,pays €650 if they all happen to turn up.

[terryl]

i see lilys angle out again in meydan today 13/2...wonder does jazzy have any word...

[bohsman]

PP doing daily Cheltenham power plays in the run up to the festival, todays is Sprinter Sacre, Dynaste and Bobs Worth all to win @ 19/1

[mcnugget]

Any sign of Powers doing a big special like previous years (Cousin Vinny, Sprinter Sacre, Dunguib etc)??

[robinblinds]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ai1Ga-K3IzA

I saw that last night on the utube Noel.

Was very impressed. Russell's best interview.

[robinblinds]

This is from last year. Its a long interview but you only need listen to the first 25 seconds and turn it off. Chapman seems to get a good tune out of Russell.

[premierstone]

Any sign of Powers doing a big special like previous years (Cousin Vinny, Sprinter Sacre, Dunguib etc)??

Have heard rumours that it is Hurricane Fly but nothing official yet.

[mohican22]

Willie Mullins Cheltenham team part 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgwcQL8D8rU

[mohican22]

Part 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_50389&feature=iv&src_vid=XgwcQL8D8rU&v=OmciPXxx81U

[amberleaf]

205 kempton tomorrow with a few pretenders on show

http://www.irishracing.com/cards/Kempton_Sat_23rd_Feb_2013_2_05.html

no entries for both kashmir peak & swnymor to be found,which could turn out to be very significant,kashmir peak who is 4th fav (16/1) in particular.Lac Fontana runs in the 3.15.

in the racing plus chase Rolling Aces(3/1) and Wyck Hill (3/1) top the market,but not much value at the price imo,Nacarat @ 7/1 ticks a lot of boxes,but is 12 years old and has had plenty of hcp. chases under the belt,the one that scores best from the middle priced runners for me is Duke Of Lucca @ 11/1,so thats where my score e/w is off to.good luck.

[Pat Mustard]

Got word for the Holyma 4.15at lingfield.

[wicklowp]

While switching tv stations I just found they are replaying last years festival on RUK, loving it

[amberleaf]

205 kempton tomorrow with a few pretenders on show

http://www.irishracing.com/cards/Kempton_Sat_23rd_Feb_2013_2_05.html

no entries for both kashmir peak & swnymor to be found,which could turn out to be very significant,kashmir peak who is 4th fav (16/1) in particular.Lac Fontana runs in the 3.15.

in the racing plus chase Rolling Aces(3/1) and Wyck Hill (3/1) top the market,but not much value at the price imo,Nacarat @ 7/1 ticks a lot of boxes,but is 12 years old and has had plenty of hcp. chases under the belt,the one that scores best from the middle priced runners for me is Duke Of Lucca @ 11/1,so thats where my score e/w is off to.good luck.

managed to squeeze a few quid out of this one last weekend when Duke Of Lucca came in 3rd,stuck the profit on Call Him Something from the Crawford yard in ireland in the last at catterick,trainer has a decent record when running horses in bumpers across the pond,breeding looks fine,40 nobs on the nose @ 4/1 for the midweek mugbet

[amberleaf]

this one looks interesting

http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=66894&headline=Storm-has-the-wind-up-the-bookies

race details here

http://www.irishracing.com/cards/Lingfield_Tue_26th_Feb_2013_4_10.html

[Strewelpeter]

I was looking again at the good 20f novice hurdle from Naas the other day that Annie Power hacked up in and I was very struck by the attitude of McCoy on Defy Logic.
Already invested at 33/1 I'm tempted to top up at the fancy prices on betfair for the Neptune.
How mad am I?

Edit: At Fishers Cross would almost certainly be McCoy's pick, but its still in the Bartlett and Defy Logic was scratched from that last week before Naas
What else has McManus got for the Neptune?

[bohsman]

20/1 NRNB on B365, sounds like a plan!

[The Situation]

Drop back to what I believe is his ideal trip and jockey booking will make Noguchi very difficult to beat in the Kempton opener tomorrow evening. Has been knocking on the door with two very slender loses in recent races but is 5lbs well in on those runs tomorrow with a very capable claimer on board. They've found a pretty good spot here with a few leading market opponents in need of a run to shake off the cobwebs.

[amberleaf]

this one looks interesting

http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=66894&headline=Storm-has-the-wind-up-the-bookies

race details here

http://www.irishracing.com/cards/Lin...2013_4_10.html

interestingly done by a nose(showed some set of gears all the same)

managed to squeeze a few quid out of this one last weekend when Duke Of Lucca came in 3rd,stuck the profit on Call Him Something from the Crawford yard in ireland in the last at catterick,trainer has a decent record when running horses in bumpers across the pond,breeding looks fine,40 nobs on the nose @ 4/1 for the midweek mugbet

even more interesting done by five lengths

Drop back to what I believe is his ideal trip and jockey booking will make Noguchi very difficult to beat in the Kempton opener tomorrow evening. Has been knocking on the door with two very slender loses in recent races but is 5lbs well in on those runs tomorrow with a very capable claimer on board. They've found a pretty good spot here with a few leading market opponents in need of a run to shake off the cobwebs.

2/1 good enough,recovery mission begins here.

[bohsman]

I'm punting on horses since I was 7 but tend to listen to well reasoned arguments for backing a horse rather than try to pick a winner myself as I would have no idea where to start. Not even sure what I'm looking for, anyone have any decent links giving basics on different types of races, weights etc?

[Lplated]

I'm punting on horses since I was 7 but tend to listen to well reasoned arguments for backing a horse rather than try to pick a winner myself as I would have no idea where to start. Not even sure what I'm looking for, anyone have any decent links giving basics on different types of races, weights etc?

+ 1.

Am curious as to whether there is a 'science' to it.

[westlife]

My old pal Aaim To Prosper has been put in to two 3 mile handicap hurdles this Saturday off a mark of approx 121.... This novice has been screaming for a step up to 3 miles + (has looked like he was getting well handicapped in races way too short), has jumped like a stag, and will be hard to beat if turning up Saturday!

[robinblinds]

I'm punting on horses since I was 7 but tend to listen to well reasoned arguments for backing a horse rather than try to pick a winner myself as I would have no idea where to start. Not even sure what I'm looking for, anyone have any decent links giving basics on different types of races, weights etc?

These are really great links for taking a precise look at what measures to use when trying to pick a winner.

Stats and Facts Part 1
Stats and Facts Part 2
Losing Runs
Pace Analysis
Front runner analysis
Form Factor Special Part 1
Form Factor Part 2
Betting Markets Tutorial

Anything with James Willoughby on youtube...

[Strewelpeter]

Heading to Thurles todaywith Jennies Jewel. Stepping up a grade and according to Johnny Ward in the RP its a waste of petrol driving down as shes 'out of her depth'
He may well be right, the race has cut up as a much hotter contest than recent years but she deserves to take her chance. She worked really well at the weekend, the ground is going to be a big change from what most of them have been performing on it seems to me to be likely to be the closest thing we've seen to the dead ground at Listowel since then.

[NoRiverRequired]

Heading to Thurles todaywith Jennies Jewel. Stepping up a grade and according to Johnny Ward in the RP its a waste of petrol driving down as shes 'out of her depth'
He may well be right, the race has cut up as a much hotter contest than recent years but she deserves to take her chance. She worked really well at the weekend, the ground is going to be a big change from what most of them have been performing on it seems to me to be likely to be the closest thing we've seen to the dead ground at Listowel since then.

GlGl

[NoRiverRequired]

great effort by JJ got 3rd , badly hampered at the end by the faller.Very gutsy run.

[Strewelpeter]

Delighted with todays run, not everything went her way she was a bit late out on the track and could have done with a bit more of a canter before the race started and as a result was a little bit slow to get going in the race. She travelled, jumped and got a lovely ride from McCarthy. That Elliot's got past her for second may have been a bit unlucky but had Fenton's horse not fallen she still would have only been third but IMO not much more than a length off Bright New Dawn.

The guy writing the in running comments for irishracing.com must have been watching a different race from the one myself and the racing post saw!

towards rear, closer order 4 out, 4th from before next, 3rd 2 out, struggling to get there when hampered last, kept on same pace run-in

Held up towards rear, headway into 4th before 2 out, ridden in 3rd before last and staying on when badly hampered by faller and dropped to 3rd, kept on

Sick for Fenton, O'Connell, Berry and JP and also for all involved with the other horses that didn't make it back from the races today.

Was tempted to ask Ruby if he was sick of the sight of her arse yet seeing as thats the third time he's finished behind her but he's a humourless cnut.

[Pat Mustard]

PHASE SHIFT in the last in doncaster has a serious chance today imo. Ran into one at Sedgefield last time and raced very wide coming into home straight and was only 1L behind. Raised 6lb for that 2nd but new mark doesn't come in till tomorrow. Going to have a bit of a punt today @ 2/1 to get some free Cheltenham $$$'s (mares handicap hurdle...i do know how to pick em ) GL me

[amberleaf]

These are really great links for taking a precise look at what measures to use when trying to pick a winner.

Stats and Facts Part 1
Stats and Facts Part 2
Losing Runs
Pace Analysis
Front runner analysis
Form Factor Special Part 1
Form Factor Part 2
Betting Markets Tutorial

Anything with James Willoughby on youtube...

well worth watching imo.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=f0_mGyiV1ng&feature=endscreen

murtagh interview also worth a look.

http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=66965&headline=Murtagh-reflects-on-Aga-Khan-split-

had a little e/w on Atticus Finch @ 8/1 in the 6.50 dundalk,first time Tonguestrap + step up to a mile improved him last time,extra 5 lbs this evening but trainer comments after his win last time out are a positive.times a slight negative

SPOILER

He was very disappointing the last day. We did two things different . we put a tongue-tie on him and he was going very well for Robbie at home so we let him have a go. (AM & EM) Edward Lynam, trainer

worth a tenner each way of my hard earned.

[Opr]

meh not sure why posting but I think Shukov is a rick in the 7.50pm race in Dundalk - the 8/1 is too big.

Cheers for posting

Opr

[kpnuts]

I'm like one of those guys at the start of a Harlem Shake video right now

Your life is good

[Downtown]

Turned the heating back on. Ty Mr. Hayes

[alocon]

Had Noels,Pat mustards and my own fancy in a trixie...fair play lads...serious profit made today $$$

[amberleaf]

the ten year trends spat out Ikorodu Road @ 7/1 in the grimthorpe chase in doncaster so thats where my score e/w is gone,stuck a few quid on Bold Sir Brian @ 11/4 in the 4.15 kelso to take on harry topper .good luck all