IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[jazzyfish]

winner in kempton today going grey i got 22-1 on bet fair

[mdoug]

winner in kempton today going grey i got 22-1 on bet fair

on at 24/1 cause I love your tips, don't care if he loses as you're a champ

[Marsden02]

fuck off where u get that price boyles 12s

[Mike]

winner in kempton today going grey i got 22-1 on bet fair

fuck off where u get that price boyles 12s

bit harsh, he said that he got it on betfair.

[Marsden02]

lol, not him

[mdoug]

lol, not him

well I also have a betfair account...
and its also 20/1 on stanjames even if I didn't :/. I'm on for €5@24/1 and also a massive €2@27/1 fyi

[jazzyfish]

i no this will do noting but hurt us but was told patrick hills had a chance in kempton i forgot about it and then i got a phone cal told he won an opened at 50-1 came in at 25s i think im only raging i didnt double it up

[mdoug]

i no this will do noting but hurt us but was told patrick hills had a chance in kempton i forgot about it and then i got a phone cal told he won an opened at 50-1 came in at 25s i think im only raging i didnt double it up

I actually misread this and thought you meant in the 3:45 so I backed Mallory heights to win haha oops

[jazzyfish]

have woolfall treassure in the next aaat a big price in kempton

[Marsden02]

well I also have a betfair account...
and its also 20/1 on stanjames even if I didn't :/. I'm on for €5@24/1 and also a massive €2@27/1 fyi

i no this will do noting but hurt us but was told patrick hills had a chance in kempton i forgot about it and then i got a phone cal told he won an opened at 50-1 came in at 25s i think im only raging i didnt double it up

I actually misread this and thought you meant in the 3:45 so I backed Mallory heights to win haha oops

Only have cash on Boyles online so 12s was taken. Drove into local bookies and seen 9s up on the SIS screen, but I knew they used Stan James for their prices so I got a price request and got on 20s gl us

[mdoug]

has drifted majorly on betfair, ah well

[Marsden02]

pulled obv

[amberleaf]

seems to be a few quid around for Dumbarton in the wolverhampton 4.50,trained by gordon elliott,he has a little form winning a maiden hurdle over 2 miles and a few place efforts,one over 7 furlongs,is to day over 1m4f and off a handy looking 71.a few quid with the english firms but plenty of 7/1 around,worth just a small e/w for me

http://www.irishracing.com/horse?name=Dumbarton&prt=393474

[Percy007]

Lady Kathleen 2:40 Hereford

[Percy007]

Lady Kathleen 2:40 Hereford

Backed this at 11/2 this morn ew, disappointed as the money was down, went off at 2/1 and finished 2nd. EW money will do but one for the tracker for next time.

[jazzyfish]

hey guys if they can get him into the stalls hueston will win the 7.00 should get 5s or 6-1 before the money comes for him

[amberleaf]

just done my xmas trixie punt

long run (king george)@ 2/1
Sir Des Champs(lexus) @ 3/1
Sona Sasta (welsh national) @ 8/1


one time please


happy xmas all

[bohsman]

Any non jockey related reason not to have my biggest horse racing punt of the year on Long run?

And out of interest what price do the bookie types think it would be if there was a top jockey on board?

[RBBlogger]

Any non jockey related reason not to have my biggest horse racing punt of the year on Long run?

And out of interest what price do the bookie types think it would be if there was a top jockey on board?

Oscar, Racebets are going industry top price every horse at Kempton on the 26th (plus 100% up to €100 sign up bonus)!

I would oppose Long Run at current price due to same reason as gimmeabreak.

Thats an interesting question about the jockey. Punters are funny at times. Only last week in Newbury JP Macmanus's second string horse (The Nephew) was trading at 26 on Betfair. AP McCoy was on his first string , the fav Snake Eyes, when it was pulled out because of going concerns and then he took over as jockey of the second string horse.. the odds came into 13.0 within a matter or seconds when really it should have been 17.0 after the withdrawal... Made no sense as obv horse never had a shout of winning.

Top jockeys can add value to a horses finishing ability/position but it is way over rated by punters. I think Nick Mordin did quite a bit of analysis on this in one of his publications. He doesnt buy into top jockeys much. Unfortunately I don't have the book with me to confirm his findings but I think the overriding theme was top jocks are over backed and the increase in top finishing positions does not correlate with the odds on offer.

[The Situation]

Oscar, Racebets are going industry top price every horse at Kempton on the 26th (plus 100% up to €100 sign up bonus)!

I would oppose Long Run at current price due to same reason as gimmeabreak.

Thats an interesting question about the jockey. Punters are funny at times. Only last week in Newbury JP Macmanus's second string horse (The Nephew) was trading at 26 on Betfair. AP McCoy was on his first string , the fav Snake Eyes, when it was pulled out because of going concerns and then he took over as jockey of the second string horse.. the odds came into 13.0 within a matter or seconds when really it should have been 17.0 after the withdrawal... Made no sense as obv horse never had a shout of winning.

Top jockeys can add value to a horses finishing ability/position but it is way over rated by punters. I think Nick Mordin did quite a bit of analysis on this in one of his publications. He doesnt buy into top jockeys much. Unfortunately I don't have the book with me to confirm his findings but I think the overriding theme was top jocks are over backed and the increase in top finishing positions does not correlate with the odds on offer.

Agree in general but in terms of race experience at the highest level Sam is bottom of the rung, you can't expect a lad who has <25 rides in 2012 to be as competent as lads who nearly get through this amount weekly, it has to be a factor in the pricing of him. Can't be having him at current price either.

Captain Chris impressed me with his first outing of the season, not sure whether to write him off as a stayer based on last years runs or whether it was just an off year in general and he
may fulfil his promise of two years ago this year. Stables persistence with running him over longer distances surely means they believe he has the potential to stay. Think current price more than compensates for the doubts.

[RBBlogger]

Agree in general but in terms of race experience at the highest level Sam is bottom of the rung, you can't expect a lad who has <25 rides in 2012 to be as competent as lads who nearly get through this amount weekly, it has to be a factor in the pricing of him. Can't be having him at current price either.

I have two friends who work in the industry, 1 of them is old school in his thought process and is very much into looking at the previous race videos and form to draw his conclusions.He is exceptionally knowledgeable about racing and would very much agree with the above statement regarding the jockey above.

The other guy watches races through the in-play markets on betfair, never watches the actual pictures, he develops his own mathematical driven systems that do not take jockey or trainer stats into account.

Guess who makes a nice 5 figure secondary income over the course of a year.. The second guy! The first guy is break even at best.

My point being that if the only reason not to back a horse is the jockey booking then maybe one should consider avoiding that race altogether as it must be very competitive...

Captain Chris impressed me with his first outing of the season

I wouldnt get too carried away with that result as Finians rainbow ran a stinker that day and what he beat wasn't up to much imo.

[The Situation]

I have two friends who work in the industry, 1 of them is old school in his thought process and is very much into looking at the previous race videos and form to draw his conclusions.He is exceptionally knowledgeable about racing and would very much agree with the above statement regarding the jockey above.

The other guy watches races through the in-play markets on betfair, never watches the actual pictures, he develops his own mathematical driven systems that do not take jockey or trainer stats into account.

Guess who makes a nice 5 figure secondary income over the course of a year.. The second guy! The first guy is break even at best.

My point being that if the only reason not to back a horse is the jockey booking then maybe one should consider avoiding that race altogether as it must be very competitive...

Using a two friend sample to prove one approach> another isn't hugely credible

Seen as you 'set the odds' for racebets, care to shed light on how you create your tissues or is it always a waiting for a few other sites to price there's and follow suit or get averages on price comparison sites?

[RBBlogger]

Seen as you 'set the odds' for racebets, care to shed light on how you create your tissues or is it always a waiting for a few other sites to price there's and follow suit or get averages on price comparison sites?

I'm afraid it's in my contract not to discuss these things, sorry...

[Wesley Harms]

I think he needs to show his best to win the race. I dont think he can show his best on the ground.

Aside from Junior who is a rag Long Run is the only horse in the race guaranteed to get home, the others might stay but you are leaving it to chance.

I think he will have them all stone cold turning into the straight

[amberleaf]

Aside from Junior who is a rag Long Run is the only horse in the race guaranteed to get home, the others might stay but you are leaving it to chance.

I think he will have them all stone cold turning into the straight

was thinking this as well,this will be a real slog of a race i think,the jockey ?.Riverside Theatre @ 5/1 e/w perhaps a danger,some horse to run fresh.long run had him 12 lenghts back a few years ago,still rather take L.R. @ 2/1 at this stage

[DAMO72]

Any links for declarations at Kempton tomorrow

[Percy007]

Any links for declarations at Kempton tomorrow

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/meeting_of_cards.sd?crs_id=28&r_date=2012-12-26&tab=sc_

[DAMO72]

I got a txt from a mate in engerland about Champion Court in the big one at Kempton tomorrow .
After having a look at the race their now i cant see him having any impact unless all the others get hit by lightening .

[Sirtoyou]

Based on his Feltham win of 12 months ago Grand Crus is a ridiculous price imo.

[The Situation]

Based on his last two runs Grands Crus is a ridiculous price.

Confident about picking up the loot at Leop tomorrow?

[Wesley Harms]

Confident about picking up the loot at Leop tomorrow?

Non runner according to Noel's twitter earlier, coughing this morning

[premierstone]

I got a txt from a mate in engerland about Champion Court in the big one at Kempton tomorrow .
After having a look at the race their now i cant see him having any impact unless all the others get hit by lightening .

Listen to your mate, he is massively overpriced and is a great e/w bet with doubts about so many of the others.

[Wesley Harms]

Noel if you think Stocktons Wing is the value i take it you think your horse has the beating of Blood Cotil

[Wesley Harms]

I think OC is up to being in the frame in a Triumph hurdle.

It was more 'what do you make of this Mullins horse' I was digging for info on. I assume as you were taking him on you have your homework done.

[SatNav]

Happy xmas Finkel xxx

[Strewelpeter]

Sorry to hear about Our Conor hopefully its trivial.

Hard to know how the market will play out tomorrow in the Limerick Maiden hurdle Jennies Jewel runs in
Betfair are predicting a 2/1 SP but any money for the one Davy Russell rides could see Jennie being a bit of value if she went off any bigger than that.

Having watched just about every run from every other horse in the race
I'm a little worried the race might play out as a tactical affair and there are a few who could perhaps out battle her if she was to run below par. Though she ran a couple of schooling races at this track last year I'm also a bit concerned about the tight down hill parts of the track but she is a lot more experienced now than when she ran about a bit on a similar configuration at Ballinrobe.
Anyway I'm looking for pitfalls and sure while there are a thousand things that can go wrong I'm fairly confident that if she runs to her mark she can win.
Whatever happens I don't think I've been this excited at Christmas since I was about 10 years old

[Thefonze]

Looking at the King George I see very few actually finishing this race. The value bet is Champion Court, he will set off in front I hope (as this improves his jumping) and he will stay. The same can not be said about some of the others,. 33/1 looks way too big and is a good each way value bet.

Dynaste is very short in the 2.oc, he looked very good first time up but not so good last time. This however is a race that historically has seen favs beaten. Hadrians Approach is highly regarded and was going well the last day, he is a solid value ew bet here.

[Raoul Duke III]

Bucketing down in SC Dublin, excellent decision to withdraw GAB . Was going to head along to see the Triumph winner in action but now viewing from sofa

Feels wierd to be looking at a KG without Kauto Star in it

[DeadParrot]

Leopardstown (Wednesday)
2.55 Oscars Well

Wetherby (Wednesday)
1.45 Mr Moonshine 11/2

Kempton (Wednesday)
2.00 Hadrians Approach 10/1
2.35 Countrywide Flame 2/1
3.10 Cue Card 5/1

my picks for the day...though Long Run looks tempting

[Ed]

Here is the quick version of my Stephens day racing thoughts

Need buntlines wins the opener in Leop

Anonis, we're it trained by wpm would be even money. It should be backed at the suggested tissue
Oscars wells is nearing a max bet at 7/4

Jacksonslady is overpriced at 12/1

Stocktons wing is the value in the juvenile

Agrocat the value in limerick

I thi kauto stone wins the king George - 8/1 is one hell of a price.

Cracking start to the day Noel, wp

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Ed]

And Argocat too!

[Ed]

And JAcksonslady! holy crap

[ionapaul]

And Jacksonslady!

Edit: Ed too quick for me

[The Situation]

RTE could have really thrown in a bit of Limerick today.

[nicnicnic]

that's some tipping BCB wdwd

[bohsman]

Sick stuff!

[supersaint2]

unreal tipping mate ,class work

[HiCloy]

RTE could have really thrown in a bit of Limerick today.

Grade 2 wasn't on on ATR either (two runner wolverhampton race instead), although did at least find out Mikael D'Hag fell while watching RTE!

[Guest]

Only one I followed came 2nd!!! Defo gotta back kauto stone now!!

[The Situation]

That was a bizarre flat spot Oscars hit about 3 out.

[The Situation]

Sigh

Lol at calling photo though

[bohsman]

BOOM! Thought that was dead and buried 2 out.

[The Situation]

Where does the pin drop in the PP chase tomorrow? Despite being a few lbs heavier than the usual winner of this race Questions Answered came out strongest in my trend analysis, so having an ew poke at him, sponsors paying 5 places.

[amberleaf]

notice mr h has two runnng at LK,r5 is the one that i was looking at @ 8s could be a plot all things considered

[The Situation]

Surely Simonsig has to be taken on at 1.17? Thinking he may become the years most overrated horse. As impressive as he jumped his chase debut was a bit if a farce with the two closest market rivals falling. Hinterland doesn't set the worst standard receiving piles of weight from SS here and has decent form in bad conditions.

[LuckyLloyd]

Heading to Leopardstown today for my first ever racing trip. If I have a burning desire to burn some cash on one particular race what do people like?

EDIT: Cheers Noel!

[Thefonze]

Heading to Leopardstown today for my first ever racing trip. If I have a burning desire to burn some cash on one particular race what do people like?

EDIT: Cheers Noel!

Could do worse than Rory O Moore n the 2pm, 20/1 and he will try and make all!

[NewApproach]

As posted elsewhere

R1 - Teofolina wasn't all that busy on debut. The 8/1 tissue is probably in the realm of fantasy but I something better than half that is available then it's an EW poke to nothing. The WPM horse has been called brave in his schooling, I understand this to be a euphemism for clumsy as fuck. No value in him at th prices, especially as RW reported after today's win that BC was probabably the best in the yard an also hat Pumpkin Head had nothing of similar quality. Without needing to expand Diplomat is of interest. Honourable Emperor should be watched or the future, has th makings of a proper horse on good ground and could be a Fred Winter type horse.

Do they not rate Far West?

[Thefonze]

Do they not rate Far West?

No they dont think he will be fast enough on good ground.