winner in kempton today going grey i got 22-1 on bet fair
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IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)
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Originally posted by jazzyfish View Posti no this will do noting but hurt us but was told patrick hills had a chance in kempton i forgot about it and then i got a phone cal told he won an opened at 50-1 came in at 25s i think im only raging i didnt double it upGo big or go homeless.
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Originally posted by mdoug View Postwell I also have a betfair account...
and its also 20/1 on stanjames even if I didn't :/. I'm on for €5@24/1 and also a massive €2@27/1 fyiOriginally posted by jazzyfish View Posti no this will do noting but hurt us but was told patrick hills had a chance in kempton i forgot about it and then i got a phone cal told he won an opened at 50-1 came in at 25s i think im only raging i didnt double it upOriginally posted by mdoug View PostI actually misread this and thought you meant in the 3:45 so I backed Mallory heights to win haha oops
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seems to be a few quid around for Dumbarton in the wolverhampton 4.50,trained by gordon elliott,he has a little form winning a maiden hurdle over 2 miles and a few place efforts,one over 7 furlongs,is to day over 1m4f and off a handy looking 71.a few quid with the english firms but plenty of 7/1 around,worth just a small e/w for me
Mattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by bohsman View PostAny non jockey related reason not to have my biggest horse racing punt of the year on Long run?
And out of interest what price do the bookie types think it would be if there was a top jockey on board?
I would oppose Long Run at current price due to same reason as gimmeabreak.
Thats an interesting question about the jockey. Punters are funny at times. Only last week in Newbury JP Macmanus's second string horse (The Nephew) was trading at 26 on Betfair. AP McCoy was on his first string , the fav Snake Eyes, when it was pulled out because of going concerns and then he took over as jockey of the second string horse.. the odds came into 13.0 within a matter or seconds when really it should have been 17.0 after the withdrawal... Made no sense as obv horse never had a shout of winning.
Top jockeys can add value to a horses finishing ability/position but it is way over rated by punters. I think Nick Mordin did quite a bit of analysis on this in one of his publications. He doesnt buy into top jockeys much. Unfortunately I don't have the book with me to confirm his findings but I think the overriding theme was top jocks are over backed and the increase in top finishing positions does not correlate with the odds on offer.
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Originally posted by RBBlogger View PostOscar, Racebets are going industry top price every horse at Kempton on the 26th (plus 100% up to €100 sign up bonus)!
I would oppose Long Run at current price due to same reason as gimmeabreak.
Thats an interesting question about the jockey. Punters are funny at times. Only last week in Newbury JP Macmanus's second string horse (The Nephew) was trading at 26 on Betfair. AP McCoy was on his first string , the fav Snake Eyes, when it was pulled out because of going concerns and then he took over as jockey of the second string horse.. the odds came into 13.0 within a matter or seconds when really it should have been 17.0 after the withdrawal... Made no sense as obv horse never had a shout of winning.
Top jockeys can add value to a horses finishing ability/position but it is way over rated by punters. I think Nick Mordin did quite a bit of analysis on this in one of his publications. He doesnt buy into top jockeys much. Unfortunately I don't have the book with me to confirm his findings but I think the overriding theme was top jocks are over backed and the increase in top finishing positions does not correlate with the odds on offer.
Captain Chris impressed me with his first outing of the season, not sure whether to write him off as a stayer based on last years runs or whether it was just an off year in general and he
may fulfil his promise of two years ago this year. Stables persistence with running him over longer distances surely means they believe he has the potential to stay. Think current price more than compensates for the doubts.Profit before people.
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Agree in general but in terms of race experience at the highest level Sam is bottom of the rung, you can't expect a lad who has <25 rides in 2012 to be as competent as lads who nearly get through this amount weekly, it has to be a factor in the pricing of him. Can't be having him at current price either.
The other guy watches races through the in-play markets on betfair, never watches the actual pictures, he develops his own mathematical driven systems that do not take jockey or trainer stats into account.
Guess who makes a nice 5 figure secondary income over the course of a year.. The second guy! The first guy is break even at best.
My point being that if the only reason not to back a horse is the jockey booking then maybe one should consider avoiding that race altogether as it must be very competitive...
Captain Chris impressed me with his first outing of the season
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Originally posted by RBBlogger View PostI have two friends who work in the industry, 1 of them is old school in his thought process and is very much into looking at the previous race videos and form to draw his conclusions.He is exceptionally knowledgeable about racing and would very much agree with the above statement regarding the jockey above.
The other guy watches races through the in-play markets on betfair, never watches the actual pictures, he develops his own mathematical driven systems that do not take jockey or trainer stats into account.
Guess who makes a nice 5 figure secondary income over the course of a year.. The second guy! The first guy is break even at best.
My point being that if the only reason not to back a horse is the jockey booking then maybe one should consider avoiding that race altogether as it must be very competitive...
Seen as you 'set the odds' for racebets, care to shed light on how you create your tissues or is it always a waiting for a few other sites to price there's and follow suit or get averages on price comparison sites?Profit before people.
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakI think he needs to show his best to win the race. I dont think he can show his best on the ground.
I think he will have them all stone cold turning into the straight
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Originally posted by Dean Winstanley View PostAside from Junior who is a rag Long Run is the only horse in the race guaranteed to get home, the others might stay but you are leaving it to chance.
I think he will have them all stone cold turning into the straightMattie McGrath wanna-be
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Originally posted by DAMO72 View PostI got a txt from a mate in engerland about Champion Court in the big one at Kempton tomorrow .
After having a look at the race their now i cant see him having any impact unless all the others get hit by lightening .
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Sorry to hear about Our Conor hopefully its trivial.
Hard to know how the market will play out tomorrow in the Limerick Maiden hurdle Jennies Jewel runs in
Betfair are predicting a 2/1 SP but any money for the one Davy Russell rides could see Jennie being a bit of value if she went off any bigger than that.
Having watched just about every run from every other horse in the race
I'm a little worried the race might play out as a tactical affair and there are a few who could perhaps out battle her if she was to run below par. Though she ran a couple of schooling races at this track last year I'm also a bit concerned about the tight down hill parts of the track but she is a lot more experienced now than when she ran about a bit on a similar configuration at Ballinrobe.
Anyway I'm looking for pitfalls and sure while there are a thousand things that can go wrong I'm fairly confident that if she runs to her mark she can win.
Whatever happens I don't think I've been this excited at Christmas since I was about 10 years oldTurning millions into thousands
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Looking at the King George I see very few actually finishing this race. The value bet is Champion Court, he will set off in front I hope (as this improves his jumping) and he will stay. The same can not be said about some of the others,. 33/1 looks way too big and is a good each way value bet.
Dynaste is very short in the 2.oc, he looked very good first time up but not so good last time. This however is a race that historically has seen favs beaten. Hadrians Approach is highly regarded and was going well the last day, he is a solid value ew bet here.
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Leopardstown (Wednesday)
2.55 Oscars Well
Wetherby (Wednesday)
1.45 Mr Moonshine 11/2
Kempton (Wednesday)
2.00 Hadrians Approach 10/1
2.35 Countrywide Flame 2/1
3.10 Cue Card 5/1
my picks for the day...though Long Run looks temptingPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakHere is the quick version of my Stephens day racing thoughts
Need buntlines wins the opener in Leop
Anonis, we're it trained by wpm would be even money. It should be backed at the suggested tissue
Oscars wells is nearing a max bet at 7/4
Jacksonslady is overpriced at 12/1
Stocktons wing is the value in the juvenile
Agrocat the value in limerick
I thi kauto stone wins the king George - 8/1 is one hell of a price.
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Surely Simonsig has to be taken on at 1.17? Thinking he may become the years most overrated horse. As impressive as he jumped his chase debut was a bit if a farce with the two closest market rivals falling. Hinterland doesn't set the worst standard receiving piles of weight from SS here and has decent form in bad conditions.Last edited by The Situation; 27-12-12, 11:21.Profit before people.
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Heading to Leopardstown today for my first ever racing trip. If I have a burning desire to burn some cash on one particular race what do people like?
EDIT: Cheers Noel!Last edited by LuckyLloyd; 27-12-12, 11:32."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostHeading to Leopardstown today for my first ever racing trip. If I have a burning desire to burn some cash on one particular race what do people like?
EDIT: Cheers Noel!
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakAs posted elsewhere
R1 - Teofolina wasn't all that busy on debut. The 8/1 tissue is probably in the realm of fantasy but I something better than half that is available then it's an EW poke to nothing. The WPM horse has been called brave in his schooling, I understand this to be a euphemism for clumsy as fuck. No value in him at th prices, especially as RW reported after today's win that BC was probabably the best in the yard an also hat Pumpkin Head had nothing of similar quality. Without needing to expand Diplomat is of interest. Honourable Emperor should be watched or the future, has th makings of a proper horse on good ground and could be a Fred Winter type horse.
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